The markets month ahead: December events for your trading diary

Get a preview of the month’s important market-moving events with our look ahead to December. 

Economic events to watch in December 

OPEC-JMMC meetings – Thursday December 2nd  

OPEC+’s December meetings will take on a different shape to its other monthly get-togethers. Crude oil has dipped below $70 for the first time since September. Questions are being raised over oil demand, especially with the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant. With President Biden releasing oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, OPEC+ is likely to rethink its monthly production increases. 

US nonfarm payrolls – Friday December 3rd  

The US job market is in focus this Friday with the latest NFP print. Last month’s beat market expectations with 571,000 new jobs created in November. The hospitality sector led the way with 185,000 new roles. Can the momentum keep going? Jobless claims are at their lowest levels since 1969, but the US labour sector remains tight. 

Bank of Canada rate statement – Wednesday December 8th  

A fresh rate statement from the Bank of Canada is on the way. Is a rate hike getting closer? Governor Tiff Macklem has hinted as such, but one won’t be coming until Canada’s economic slack picks up. Inflation is high, but Macklem is putting all his chips in the nation’s flexible inflation target based around a 2% midpoint between 1-3%. Will it be enough to stave off inflation’s killer bite? 

US CPI data – Friday December 10th  

Speaking of inflation, we can gauge its effects on the US economy with the CPI data for November which comes this month. In the US, it’s already positively scorching. Prices rose 6.2% in October – the fastest rate seen since December 1990. Core inflation was also up 4.6%. It’s hoped inflation prints this scalding may force the Fed into action, but so far, no luck. 

US retail sales – Wednesday December 15th  

November’s retail stats are usually a good indicator of the strength of US holiday spending. Not only is Thanksgiving towards the end of the month, but also the Black Friday and Cyber Monday spendathons too. Interestingly, early projections suggest American shoppers have spent less during this year’s Black Friday event – down 28% year-on-year. This is the first time Black Friday sales have fallen. Is inflation proving too much for US consumers? 

FOMC statement – Wednesday December 15th  

Wednesday December 15th is a busy day for the US economy. The FOMC gives its final statement of 2021 today at a time when the job market is tight, and inflation is high. At the start of the month, Chair Jerome Powell stated it was time to retire the word “transitory” in relation to inflation, triggering market thoughts that a rate hike could finally be on the way. We’ll learn more about the direction of the US economy at this month’s FOMC talks. 

Bank of England rate statement – Thursday December 16th  

Hints that a UK rate hike was on coming were dropped in November, but one might not come just yet. The Omicron variant has caused jitters to economists around the world and the Bank of England’s top bods are no different. A 25-basis-point rate hike was being talked up, but it looks like Governor Bailey et al are holding fire until Omicron’s impact can really be measured. 

ECB Rate Statement – Thursday December 16th  

The big rate statements come thick and fast in mid-December. Following the Bank of England on December 16th is the European Central Bank. Unlike the Bank of England, the ECB has been pretty explicit about its rate hike plans. That is to say, one won’t be coming in December and won’t be coming in 2022 either. Christine Lagarde has warned against rushing into a “premature tightening” of ECB policy – but if inflation continues to grow across the bloc, something will have to give. 

Flash PMI data – Tuesday December 21st  

See how EU and UK are doing in terms of productivity with the final flash PMI estimates for 2021. November’s PMI numbers threw up some surprise for the EU at least. Its composite PMI index jumped from 54.2 in October to 55.8 in November. Conversely, the UK’s scores edged down month-on-month from October’s 57.8 to a November reading of 57.7. A small decline, but a decline, nonetheless.  

US Core PCE data – Thursday December 23rd  

There’s still time to squeeze in the Fed’s preferred inflation metric before markets shut down for Christmas. Much like other inflation ratings, personal consumer expenditures are up throughout the US. The latest reading showed household spending was up 4.1% year-on-year – the largest year-on-year jump since the 1990s. It’s probably we’ll round off the year with yet another hot PCE print.  

Major economic data