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Developments in Ukraine will be front and centre for market participants this week as they have been since the invasion began on Feb 24th. Meanwhile, after a busy week for central banks it’s back to some economic survey data with the Eurozone flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) series. Plus we have the UK Spring Statement and inflation data out of Britain, too. 

Ukraine-Russia conflict 

Last week saw headlines drive price action and unless there is meaningful progress towards peace it’s likely that markets will remain sensitive to news. Oil prices stabilised throughout last week, and other commodities have been less volatile, though prices remain elevated.  

Eurozone data 

Euro area PMI surveys will be pored over for the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had on consumer and business sentiment, inflation expectations and economic activity. Whilst there had been some signs of improvement in some of the survey data, the war will undoubtedly see these tumble. PMIs are diffusion indices that measure whether participants think things are better or worse than the month before – they will plunge. 

UK Spring Statement 

Following last week’s Bank of England decision, it’s the turn of fiscal policy with the UK Spring Statement on Wednesday. It’s unclear what goodies the Chancellor has up his sleeve, but gilt market and sterling will be sensitive to the announcement. Ahead of the statement is the UK CPI inflation report for the month of February, which is set to rise further from the +5.5% level hit in January. 


Major economic data 

Sun Mar 20 9:45pm NZD Trade Balance 
Mon Mar 21 All Day JPY Bank Holiday 
 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 
 2:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 
 7:00am EUR German PPI m/m 
 Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report 
 8:00pm NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
Tue Mar 22 5:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 
 7:00am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 
 9:00am EUR Current Account 
 11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 
 12:30pm CAD IPPI m/m 
  CAD RMPI m/m 
 2:00pm USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 
 8:00pm CAD Annual Budget Release 
Wed Mar 23 7:00am GBP CPI y/y 
  GBP Core CPI y/y 
  GBP PPI Input m/m 
  GBP PPI Output m/m 
  GBP RPI y/y 
 9:30am GBP HPI y/y 
 Tentative GBP Annual Budget Release 
 2:00pm USD New Home Sales 
 2:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 
  USD Crude Oil Inventories 
 3:00pm EUR Consumer Confidence 
 10:00pm AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  AUD Flash Services PMI 
 11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
Thu Mar 24 12:30am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 
 8:15am EUR French Flash Services PMI 
  EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
 8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 
  CHF SNB Policy Rate 
  EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  EUR German Flash Services PMI 
 9:00am EUR ECB Economic Bulletin 
  EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  EUR Flash Services PMI 
 9:30am CHF SNB Press Conference 
  GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  GBP Flash Services PMI 
 Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 
 Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 
 11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 
 12:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 
  USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 
  USD Unemployment Claims 
  USD Current Account 
 1:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  USD Flash Services PMI 
 2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 
 11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 
 11:50pm JPY SPPI y/y 
Fri Mar 25 12:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence 
 7:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 
  GBP Retail Sales m/m 
 Tentative GBP FPC Meeting Minutes 
 Tentative GBP FPC Statement 
 9:00am EUR German IFO Business Climate 
  EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 
  EUR Private Loans y/y 
 2:00pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate 
  USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 
  USD Pending Home Sales m/m 
  USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 

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