Week ahead: US retail gut check, G20 summit, UK Budget statement in focus

G20 meetings take in Bali with issues like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and climate change on the agenda. The UK’s Autumn Statement will guide gilt markets and sterling crosses. Retail sales figures from around the world will paint a picture of consumer health ahead of the World Cup and Christmas. Earnings from China via Alibaba and Tencent will be parsed alongside updates from The Home Depot and Walmart, whilst Nvidia is the big tech name reporting from the US.

Here are the week’s key events: 

Monday 

The European session kicks off with German wholesale inflation figures, Eurozone industrial production numbers, UK house price data from Halifax, and the latest monetary policy hearings in the UK parliament featuring officials from the Bank of England. 

Tuesday 

G20 meetings kick off in Bali with lots for financial markets to ponder. Does Putin show up, and what do the likes of China and India say to him about the ongoing war in Ukraine? Energy is bound to be a focus, as is climate change. And in the wake of the FTX collapse last week don’t forget crypto regulation - already in focus after the OECD submitted a framework for transparency earlier this year. 

The Asian session features the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes, plus a clutch of data from China, including the latest retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial production numbers.  

For the European session the focus is on UK employment numbers and flash GDP figures for the euro area, followed by US producer price inflation and the latest Empire State manufacturing index.  

Earnings:  The Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT). 

Wednesday 

Wage data from Australia kicks the session off in Asia, whilst UK inflation figures will be important for the market’s expectation for what the Bank of England will do next. The Bank has been keen to stress that it will not likely raise rates by as much as the market had anticipated. However, more hot inflation readings will make that position increasingly untenable. Elsewhere the US retail sales print and Canadian inflation figures will be closely watched. 

Earnings: Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Nvidia (NVDA). 

Thursday 

The UK’s Autumn Statement, pretty well a full-blown Budget now, is the main event. Fiscal restraint – higher taxes and lower spending – is on offer. The extent to which chancellor Jeremy Hunt opts for this austerity will have an important market impact on gilts and sterling, with a potential read across from these for the FTSE.  

Earnings: Alibaba Group (BABA), JD.com (JD), Applied Materials (AMAT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 

Friday 

Sticking with the UK, the latest consumer confidence and retail sales figures are expected to paint a bleak picture ahead of Christmas. It’s the last day of trading before the FIFA World Cup gets underway in Qatar. Retailers could do without such scheduling – hard to sell Christmas goodies and beer and TVs all at once in this market.