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US inflation figures for July are the main event this week as markets look to see where the Federal Reserve is heading in September. Earnings season continues with Walt Disney, Peloton and Coinbase among the most traded stocks to watch.  

US inflation 

For most market participants the highlight this week is the US Consumer Price Index as markets look to what the Fed’s next move on interest rates in September might be. The CPI climbed 9.1% year-over-year through June, hitting a fresh 40-year high. The index was up a huge 1.3% in June from May, signalling to many that inflation has far from peaked. 

And whilst commodity prices have somewhat rolled over and inflation expectations have pulled back from their recent highs, actual inflation is expected to remain elevated for some time. 

Last week saw several FOMC members push back against the market’s apparent belief the Fed is ready to pivot to a more accommodative stance. San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, normally quite dovish, said the US central bank was “nowhere near” done with raising rates, while Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said a 50bps hike in September would be appropriate but left the door open for 75bps. This saw a sharp selloff in the Treasury bond market as investors took it to mean the Fed is far from declaring victory in its war on inflation. 

US earnings season  

So far this earnings season US companies are beating on revenues, but guidance is generally lower. Among the large cap stocks to report this week are Palantir (PLTR), Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Viatris (VTRS), all on Monday. Later in the week watch out for German giants Deutsche Telekom and Siemens reporting their latest earnings, as well as Walt Disney (DIS), Roblox (RBLX), Peloton (PTON) and Coinbase Global (COIN).  

With about two-thirds of S&P 500 companies having reported, 69% are beating Q2 earnings (vs. 79% avg. last 4Qs) and 65% are beating revenue estimates (vs. 77%), according to JPMorgan analysis. 

Weekly unemployment claims 

Is the US labour market cracking? Last week’s JOLTS job openings declined to 10.7m, from 11.25m, and well below the 11m expected – the drop is 3rd biggest on record, with only Covid-era declines worse. With this in mind US weekly unemployment claims are the focus for Thursday. 


UK growth held up better than forecast in May, but recent data has been soft as rising inflation hits home. Last week’s closely-watched services PMI slid to a 17-month low in July – Friday sees the latest GDP print for the month of June. 

Earnings calendar 

08.08 9.08 10.08 11.08 12.08 

Barrick Gold (GOLD) PMO 



Palantir Technologies (PLTR) PMO 


Viatris (VTRS) PMO 


Lemonade (LMND) AMC 


Upstart Holdings (UPST) AMC 


AMC Networks (AMC) E 


Peloton (PTON) E 



Coinbase Global (COIN)AMC 


Roblox Corporation (RBLX)AMC 


Unity Software (U) AMC 


The Trade Desk (TTD) AMC 



Walt Disney (DIS) AMC 



Illumina (ILMN) AMC 




Economic calendar (BST) 

Mon Aug 8 12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 
  JPY Current Account 
 4:00am NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 
 Tentative CNH Trade Balance 
 Tentative CNH USD-Denominated Trade Balance 
 6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 
 6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 
 8th-15th EUR German WPI m/m 
 9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 
 8th-15th CNH M2 Money Supply y/y 
 8th-15th CNH New Loans 
 8th-15th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 
Tue Aug 9 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 
 12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 
 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 
 Tentative NZD RBNZ Statement of Intent 
 4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 
 7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 
 11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 
 Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction 
 1:30pm USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 
  USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 
 Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 
Wed Aug 10 12:50am JPY PPI y/y 
 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
 2:30am CNH CPI y/y 
  CNH PPI y/y 
 7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 
 1:30pm USD CPI m/m 
  USD Core CPI m/m 
 3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 
 3:30pm OIL Crude Oil Inventories 
 6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 
 7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance 
 11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 
Thu Aug 11 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance 
 All Day JPY Bank Holiday 
 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 
 1:30pm USD PPI m/m 
  USD Core PPI m/m 
  USD Unemployment Claims 
 3:30pm NAT GAS Natural Gas Storage 
 6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 
 11:30pm NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index 
 11:45pm NZD FPI m/m 
Fri Aug 12 7:00am GBP GDP m/m 
  GBP Prelim GDP q/q 
  GBP Construction Output m/m 
  GBP Goods Trade Balance 
  GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 
  GBP Industrial Production m/m 
  GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 
  GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 
 7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 
 9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 
 10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 
 1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 
 Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 
 3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
  USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 


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