Week ahead: US inflation readings crown the week’s risk events

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday

US inflation readings are the main risk events in the wake of the Fed’s decision to raise rates again last week. Monetary policy meeting minutes from Japan will be an interesting read after new governor Ueda’s first run out of the stable. The Sentix investor confidence report in Europe and US mortgage delinquencies and wholesale inventory numbers will be the other main economic data releases. Earnings come from Palantir and PayPal, as well as Tesla rival Lucid. Trading may be thinner than usual in Europe at the start of the week with the London Stock Exchange closed for the Coronation bank holiday, whilst it’s also a bank holiday in France in observance of Victory Day.

Earnings:  Viatris (VTRS), Lucid Group (LCID), Palantir (PLTR), PayPal (PYPL)

Tuesday

The Biden administration will hold talks with top congressional politicians on the debt ceiling amid warnings the US government could run out of cash by June 1st. The earnings focus will be on Airbnb’s Q1 report after it finished 2022 on a high, delivering its first full year of profitability. Surging foreign travel saw cross-border trips up 49% in Q4 and the outlook for the start of 2023 is also promising. In its Q4 report the company flagged continued strong demand at the start of 2023 and said revenue in the first quarter will be between $1.75 billion and $1.82 billion, slightly down on Q4’s $1.9bn but up a fifth from the $1.5bn in Q1 2022, itself up 70% year-on-year.

Earnings:  Airbnb (ABNB), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Twilio (TWLO), Upstart Holdings (UPST)

Wednesday

US CPI inflation for April is the main event. Inflation eased in March to the lowest level in almost two years but a rise in core price growth alarmed policymakers. CPI for March fell to 5% year-on-year, down from 6% in February. However, core hit 5.6%, up 0.4% on the month, suggesting that sticky inflation will continue to dog the Fed. Traders are also looking to earnings from Disney and loan figures from China.

Earnings:  Unity Software (U), The Walt Disney Co (DIS)

Thursday

With inflation continuing to run in double digits, the Bank of England is widely seen raising rates by 25bps again. Whether it has the bottle to keep hiking and make it clear it will do whatever it takes to tame inflation is a lot less clear. Huw Pill, the Bank’s chief economist, recently said people should accept being poorer. The problem for the BoE is the housing market and all those fixed-rate deals rolling off this year and next. Traders are also watching US producer price index inflation and UK GDP figures.

Earnings:  Takeda (TAK)

Friday

The Asian session direction comes from Japan with core machine orders and New Zealand’s inflation expectations. German wholesale price inflation and French final CPI inflation are the highlights in Europe before the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys. Last month’s surveys showed “worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices”.