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The US nonfarm payrolls report is the highlight for traders this week as it should deliver a steer on what the Federal Reserve might do next after last week’s comments from Jay Powell at Jackson Hole. Market pricing suggests a roughly 50/50 chance the Fed will go for 75bps at its September 21st meeting, but a soft payroll report could nudge expectations back towards 50bps.  

Here are the week’s key events: 

Monday 

Australian retail sales figures is the first release of the week on an otherwise quiet day for data. In Europe, traders await the German retail sales and import prices data, whilst the London Stock Exchange is shut for a Bank Holiday in the UK, which might keep volumes in equity derivatives and forex markets thin for the bulk of the European session. 

Tuesday 

The main focus is the flash/preliminary CPI inflation numbers for Germany, France, Spain and Italy at the start of the European session. Later in the day there is the US CB Consumer Confidence survey, which last month registered a third-straight decline, with expectations sliding to an-almost decade low. Meanwhile JOLTS Jobs Openings will be watched for clues as to how the US labour market is holding up as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates. 

Wednesday 

Chinese manufacturing and services data is the highlight of the Asian session alongside Japanese industrial production and retail sales numbers. Later on, we get the flash Eurozone inflation numbers. In the afternoon session on Wall Street traders look to the ADP nonfarm employment report ahead of this week’s NFP release, as well as the Chicago PMI. Weekly crude oil inventories from the US are also on tap. 

Thursday 

The Asian session will focus on the China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, ahead of final PMI readings from the Euro area at the start of European trade. Weekly US unemployment claims come ahead of the start of trade on Wall Street and the latest US manufacturing PMI. 

Friday 

August nonfarm payrolls are the focus as markets look to see what labour market strength or weakness might mean for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming September meeting. Whilst the Fed might become more sensitive to some softer economic data, the payrolls report will be central to market expectations for whether it opts to raise rates by 75bps or 50bps when it next meets. Jobs growth in 2022 has been exceptionally strong, giving the Fed plenty of room to raise rates aggressively. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, larger than the average monthly gain over the prior 4 months, which was already a robust 388,000.
 

Economic calendar (BST) 

Mon Aug 29 2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 
 Tentative EUR German Import Prices m/m 
 Tentative EUR German Retail Sales m/m 
 All Day GBP Bank Holiday 
Tue Aug 30 12:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 
 2:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 
 7:45am EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 
 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 
 All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 
 9:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 
  GBP Mortgage Approvals 
  GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 
 10:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 
 Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 
 1:30pm CAD Current Account 
 2:00pm USD HPI m/m 
  USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 
 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 
  USD JOLTS Job Openings 
 11:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 
Wed Aug 31 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 
 12:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 
  JPY Retail Sales y/y 
 2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 
 2:30am AUD Construction Work Done q/q 
  AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 
  CNH Manufacturing PMI 
  CNH Non-Manufacturing PMI 
 6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 
  JPY Housing Starts y/y 
 7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 
 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 
  EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 
 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 
 8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 
 9:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 
 10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
  EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
 Tentative USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
 1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 
 2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 
 3:30pm OIL Crude Oil Inventories 
 11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 
Thu Sep 1 12:50am JPY Capital Spending q/y 
 1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 
 2:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 
 2:45am CNH Caixin Manufacturing PMI 
 4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 
 7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 
  CHF CPI m/m 
  CHF Retail Sales y/y 
 8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 
 8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 
 8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 
 8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 
 8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 
 9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 
  EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 
 9:30am GBP Final Manufacturing PMI 
 10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 
 12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 
 1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m 
  USD Unemployment Claims 
  USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 
  USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 
 2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 
 2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 
 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 
  USD Construction Spending m/m 
  USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 
 All Day USD Wards Total Vehicle Sales 
 3:30pm NAT GAS Natural Gas Storage 
 11:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 
Fri Sep 2 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 
 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 
 7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance 
 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 
 9:30am GBP Construction PMI 
 10:00am EUR PPI m/m 
 Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 
 Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 
 1:30pm CAD Labor Productivity q/q 
  USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 
  USD Non-Farm Employment Change 
  USD Unemployment Rate 
 3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 

 

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