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Market attention shifts to the US labour market with the latest nonfarm payrolls release and wage data which could see further upwards pressure on inflation. Oil markets are looking to the next OPEC+ meeting and on the central bank front it’s the turn of the Bank of Canada to raise rates in an effort to combat inflation. 

Nonfarm payrolls 

The latest gut check from the US labour market comes on Friday with the nonfarm payrolls data. Last month’s report showed jobs growth accelerated to +428,000 in April, whilst wages were up 0.3%, or +5.5% year-on-year. The wage component appears increasingly important to the Fed as it looks to raise rates aggressively over the summer. Spiralling wages could force the Fed to move at an even faster pace than is currently expected. The Atlanta Fed’s latest data shows wages growing 6.6% year-on-year, though this data has been steady for the last two months. 

Bank of Canada 

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate, at 1%, is “too stimulative” and should return to more neutral levels “quickly,” officials have said. In April the BOC raised rates by 50bps, the largest single increase in two decades. Markets expect another 50bps move this week and there is even chatter about 75bps being on the table. 

OPEC 

OPEC+ meets again this week to discuss output. OPEC and non-OPEC partners agreed last month to raise production targets by 432,000 barrels per day, sticking to the existing strategy of gradually unwinding supply cuts. It’s not expected they will change course yet despite Brent and WTI crude holding well above $100 even as China remained in lockdown, a massive SPR release fed into the market and recession fears should be cooling the demand outlook. Meanwhile global inventories are approaching ‘precarious levels’, according to BofA. 

Economic data 

Whilst the UK revels in an extended bank holiday weekend on Thursday and Friday, the economic data is set to keep coming. Tuesday sees the US consumer confidence survey and Australian GDP figures. Wednesday’s highlights are likely the ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings reports. Thursday’s ADP private payrolls report is always assessed for indications ahead of the nonfarm payrolls on Friday.  

 

Major economic data 

Mon May 30 7:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 
 exp 30th-2nd EUR German Retail Sales m/m 
 exp 30th-2nd GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 
 All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 
 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 
  EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 
 1:30pm CAD Current Account 
 All Day USD Bank Holiday 
 11:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 
Tue May 31 12:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 
 12:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 
  JPY Retail Sales y/y 
 2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 
 2:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 
  AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 
  AUD Current Account 
  AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 
  CNH Manufacturing PMI 
  CNH Non-Manufacturing PMI 
 6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 
  JPY Housing Starts y/y 
 7:00am CHF Trade Balance 
 7:30am CHF Retail Sales y/y 
 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 
  EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 
  EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 
 8:00am CHF GDP q/q 
 8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 
 9:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 
  GBP Mortgage Approvals 
  GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 
 10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
  EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
  EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 
 Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 
 1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 
 2:00pm USD HPI m/m 
  USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 
 2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 
 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 
 Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report 
 11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 
Wed Jun 1 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 
 12:50am JPY Capital Spending q/y 
 1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 
 2:30am AUD GDP q/q 
 2:45am CNH Caixin Manufacturing PMI 
 7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 
 7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance 
 8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 
 8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 
 8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 
 8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 
 8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 
 9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 
  EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 
 9:30am GBP Final Manufacturing PMI 
 10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 
 All Day All OPEC-JMMC Meetings 
 2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 
 2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 
 3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement 
  CAD Overnight Rate 
  USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 
  USD JOLTS Job Openings 
  USD Construction Spending m/m 
  USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 
 All Day USD Wards Total Vehicle Sales 
 7:00pm USD Beige Book 
 11:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 
Thu Jun 2 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 
 All Day CNH Bank Holiday 
 2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 
  AUD Trade Balance 
 4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 
 7:30am CHF CPI m/m 
 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 
 All Day GBP Bank Holiday 
 All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday 
 10:00am EUR PPI m/m 
 All Day All OPEC Meetings 
 12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 
 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
 1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m 
  USD Unemployment Claims 
  USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 
  USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 
 3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 
 3:30pm Nat Gas Natural Gas Storage 
 4:00pm OIL Crude Oil Inventories 
 11:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 
Fri Jun 3 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 
 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 
 All Day GBP Bank Holiday 
 8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 
 8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 
 8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 
 8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 
 9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 
 10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 
 1:30pm CAD Labor Productivity q/q 
  USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 
  USD Non-Farm Employment Change 
  USD Unemployment Rate 
 2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 
 3:00pm USD ISM Services PMI 

 

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