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Key OPEC meeting and inflation reports due

Here are the week’s key events: 

Having been originally scheduled for Sunday, OPEC’s meeting with ally Russia is set to take place sometime later this week, last slated for Thursday, coming amid the Israel-Hamas conflict and a decline in oil prices that was not part of Saudi Arabia’s plan when it announced extra production cuts in the summer. Markets are now discounting escalation in the Middle East after a hostage deal was brokered, though Gulf nations appear keen to send a signal. A cut representing a further 1m bpd of production seems to be on the table but is far from a done deal with rising production from some members representing an obstacle to further reducing output. 

 

Monday  

Oil traders will digest the OPEC+ decision this week with interest whenever it takes place with crude looking to rebound from four-month lows. It looks as though the market’s near-term direction will depend on whether or not OPEC+ decides on reducing production – albeit signs of a soft landing in the US and robust Chinese demand remain supportive demand fundamentals. Last week’s postponement of the OPEC meeting send crude prices tumbling on fears that the cartel and allies are a long way from agreeing to further cuts. New home sales from the US is the only major economic release to watch for. 

Earnings: Zscaler (ZS) 

 

Tuesday  

Mixed of consumer data points early on with Australian retail sales, the Bank of Japan’s core CPI inflation reading, the UK’s BRC shop price index and the German GfK consumer climate report all on offer. Later on it’s the turn of the Conference Board consumer confidence report from the US, as well as the S&P Case-Shiller house price index. 

Earnings:  CrowdStrike (CRWD), Intuit (INTU) 

 

Wednesday  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held rates steady at its last meeting as policymakers indicated greater confidence that past rate hikes would bring down inflation, leaving markets to trim bets of any further tightening. New Zealand’s central bank left rates at the 15-year high of 5.5% and said policy would have to remain restrictive to bring inflation to down, but stopped short of signalling further hikes would be required. With this in mind the RBNZ is expected to pause at its November meeting today. Elsewhere Australian CPI figures will steer expectations for the RBA’s next decision. Preliminary German CPI inflation is due throughout the morning and the second reading for US Q3 growth is released. 

Earnings: Snowflake (SNOW) 

 

Thursday  

China tops the bill with official manufacturing and services PMIs setting the tone for the Asian session. The latest flash CPI inflation report for the Eurozone will be a major focus during the European session.  Eurozone headline inflation dipped from 4.3% in September to 2.9% in October, raising hopes that the worst is over and the ECB can stay on pause mode. ECB Governing Council member de Guindos has warned however that he expects a temporary rebound in inflation in the coming months. US Core PCE inflation for October is also due up having softened to 3.7% in September – slowing but not much. 

Earnings: Salesforce (CRM) 

 

Friday  

The week finishes with the Caixin manufacturing PMI for China and some final PMI readings for Europe. The US ISM manufacturing PMI will be the major highlight later on, with the prices component of particular interest to the market. The latest report showed economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 12th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth. 

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