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The fallout from the first round of voting in France’s Presidential election will be at the forefront for European markets on Monday. Whilst Macron is expected to win in a run-off in two weeks’ time, polling showed Le Pen close on his heels going into Sunday’s vote. Meanwhile traders will be looking to a European Central Bank decision, US inflation data and the start of earnings season on Wall Street. 

French Election 

As we head into the first round of the Presidential election, the French nation is heaving a collective Gallic shrug, writes Helen Thomas. Macron lost his neophyte Jupiterian sheen within months of storming to victory five years ago and that was before a pandemic, war, and a bout of nasty inflation burst onto the horizon. But none of his opponents has been able to sustain the unassailable momentum required to depose Emmanuel from his throne. France appears to be voting for “None of the above”. With turnout expected to be low, the first round is likely to increase uncertainty over the outcome of the decisive second round two weeks’ later. We are about to enter a period of increased risk premium for French assets. Read Helen’s full preview. 

ECB  

The European Central Bank meets amid an open debate about policy among hawks and doves. Governing Council member Panetta said action now to bring down high inflation could crash economy, and that action now to bring down high inflation in near term would be “extremely costly”. Certainly, the ECB is dealing with a different kind of inflation than the US; i.e. much more a supply shock and little of the demand-led recovery we see in the US. But there are growing concerns the ECB is losing credibility. ECB policymaker Wunsch said “based on the current outlook…we will raise interest rates to 0 by the end of the year”. The meeting comes after inflation in the Eurozone rose to 7.5%. Money markets indicate the ECB might raise rates four times this year. We get to learn whether the hawks or doves are in the ascendancy on Thursday. 

US Inflation 

Consumer inflation data is the big one for Tuesday. Last time, US CPI rose to 7.9% and it has not peaked yet. But given the hawkish noises from leading Fed members another 40-year high print would be unduly unsettling as it’s largely expected. 

Earnings Season 

US earnings season begins in earnest this week with JPMorgan Chase the first of the major banks to get the balling rolling.  

Amid increased geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation pressures, this season’s reporting may reflect a lot more pessimism than was evident three months ago. Moreover, whilst markets entered Q1 pricing in at most 3 rate hikes in 2022, fed funds futures signal the market expects 8 hikes of 25bps this year. Among the most obvious changes over the quarter was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has upended assumptions about the future path of global growth, whilst heaping more inflation fuel on the fire. Read our Q1 2022 earnings season preview. 

Bank of Canada & RBNZ 

On the central bank front, there are decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, both on Wednesday. The BOC is widely expected to raise rates by 50bps, with all six of Canada’s major commercial banks pencilling in the outsize hike. Meanwhile the RBNZ is expected to raise rates by 25bps. 

China data 

Amid Covid outbreaks and lockdowns in major cities, a tightening supply chain and turbulent markets, this week’s Chinese data will be pored over for what it means for global growth, as well as local indices and currencies. Friday sees the release of the latest Chinese GDP, retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial production figures. 

 

Major economic data 

Mon Apr 11  2:30am  CNH  CPI y/y 
    CNH  PPI y/y 
  7:00am  EUR  German WPI m/m 
    GBP  Construction Output m/m 
    GBP  GDP m/m 
    GBP  Goods Trade Balance 
    GBP  Index of Services 3m/3m 
    GBP  Industrial Production m/m 
    GBP  Manufacturing Production m/m 
    JPY  Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 
  11th-15th  CNH  M2 Money Supply y/y 
  11th-15th  CNH  New Loans 
  All Day  All  OPEC Meetings 
  Tentative  GBP  NIESR GDP Estimate 
  Tentative  NZD  NZIER Business Confidence 
  11:45pm  NZD  Visitor Arrivals m/m 
Tue Apr 12  12:01am  GBP  BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 
  12:50am  JPY  Bank Lending y/y 
    JPY  PPI y/y 
  2:30am  AUD  NAB Business Confidence 
  7:00am  EUR  German Final CPI m/m 
    GBP  Average Earnings Index 3m/y 
    GBP  Claimant Count Change 
    GBP  Unemployment Rate 
  7:45am  EUR  French Trade Balance 
  10:00am  EUR  ZEW Economic Sentiment 
    EUR  German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  11:00am  USD  NFIB Small Business Index 
  Tentative  GBP  10-y Bond Auction 
  1:30pm  USD  CPI m/m 
    USD  Core CPI m/m 
  Tentative  USD  IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 
  6:01pm  USD  10-y Bond Auction 
  7:00pm  USD  Federal Budget Balance 
  11:45pm  NZD  FPI m/m 
Wed Apr 13  12:50am  JPY  Core Machinery Orders m/m 
    JPY  M2 Money Stock y/y 
  1:30am  AUD  Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
  3:00am  NZD  Official Cash Rate 
    NZD  RBNZ Rate Statement 
  Tentative  CNH  Trade Balance 
  Tentative  CNH  USD-Denominated Trade Balance 
  7:00am  GBP  CPI y/y 
    GBP  Core CPI y/y 
    GBP  PPI Input m/m 
    GBP  PPI Output m/m 
    GBP  RPI y/y 
  9:00am  EUR  Italian Industrial Production m/m 
    EUR  Italian Trade Balance 
  9:30am  GBP  HPI y/y 
  10:00am  EUR  Industrial Production m/m 
  Tentative  EUR  German 10-y Bond Auction 
  1:30pm  USD  PPI m/m 
    USD  Core PPI m/m 
  3:00pm  CAD  BOC Monetary Policy Report 
    CAD  BOC Rate Statement 
    CAD  Overnight Rate 
  3:30pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
  4:00pm  CAD  BOC Press Conference 
  6:01pm  USD  30-y Bond Auction 
  11:30pm  NZD  BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index 
Thu Apr 14  12:01am  GBP  RICS House Price Balance 
  2:00am  AUD  MI Inflation Expectations 
  2:30am  AUD  Employment Change 
    AUD  Unemployment Rate 
  7:30am  CHF  PPI m/m 
  8:00am  EUR  German Prelim GDP q/q 
  Tentative  CNH  Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 
  9:30am  GBP  BOE Credit Conditions Survey 
  All Day  EUR  Eurogroup Meetings 
  12:45pm  EUR  Main Refinancing Rate 
    EUR  Monetary Policy Statement 
  1:30pm  CAD  Manufacturing Sales m/m 
    CAD  Wholesale Sales m/m 
    EUR  ECB Press Conference 
    USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
    USD  Import Prices m/m 
  3:00pm  USD  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
    USD  Business Inventories m/m 
    USD  Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 
  3:30pm  USD  Natural Gas Storage 
  All Day  NZD  Bank Holiday 
  All Day  AUD  Bank Holiday 
Fri Apr 15  3:00am  CNH  GDP q/y 
    CNH  Retail Sales y/y 
    CNH  Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 
    CNH  Industrial Production y/y 
    CNH  NBS Press Conference 
    CNH  Unemployment Rate 
  5:30am  JPY  Revised Industrial Production m/m 
    JPY  Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 
  All Day  CHF  Bank Holiday 
  7:45am  EUR  French Final CPI m/m 
  All Day  GBP  Bank Holiday 
  All Day  EUR  German Bank Holiday 
  10:00am  EUR  Trade Balance 
  1:30pm  USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index 
  All Day  CAD  Bank Holiday 
  2:15pm  USD  Capacity Utilization Rate 
    USD  Industrial Production m/m 
  9:00pm  USD  TIC Long-Term Purchases 
  Tentative  USD  Treasury Currency Report 

 

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