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Whilst headlines from Ukraine will be driving a lot of the market action, especially in commodities, traders are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve, which looks set to raise rates and embark on a tightening cycle. The Bank of England will also meet this week amid soaring inflation pressures for the UK. 

FOMC Meeting 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week marks a turning point for the Fed as it begins raising interest rates. The question is not whether it will announce a 25bps hike at this meeting, but how many more are likely to follow. “I’m inclined to propose and support a 25-basis point rate hike,” Powell said during a March congressional testimony.  Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said the US central bank should raise rates close to neutral, which implies seven hikes this year.  BofA: “Labour market momentum is tremendous, and we expect labour demand to continue to outpace labour supply… In short, we still expect the Fed to hike by 25bps at each of its seven meetings this year, though Russia and Ukraine adds uncertainty”. Consensus is about 5 hikes. Markets will also be watching for any word about QT and what policymakers think about the economic impact of the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. Presumably it means more inflation.

Bank of England 

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, markets were expecting interest rates in the UK to hit 1.75% by December and 2% by the middle of 2023. Traders have pared those bets back a bit, but the MPC is still expected to vote to raise rates by another 25bps to 0.75% this week. Two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters believe the Bank will raise rates for the third straight meeting. Almost half the MPC voted for a 50bps hike last time, meaning it seems all but certain the BoE opts hike.  

Ukraine War 

Commodity markets remain sensitive to developments in Ukraine, the West’s sanctions and any counter measures from the Kremlin. Last week saw high levels of volatility in various markets including oil, palladium and wheat as markets responded to events in Ukraine and worried about the potential loss of supply from sanctions.   

US Producer Inflation 

Consumer inflation is setting 40-year records and leading indicators show it’s getting worse. US producer price inflation numbers due this week are likely to be high again. Italy’s PPI for January came in at 41.8% – before the situation in Ukraine led to massive commodity price spikes.  

 

Major economic data 

Mon Mar 14  Tentative  EUR  German WPI m/m 
  Tentative  CNH  Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 
  7:45am  EUR  French Trade Balance 
  8:00am  CHF  SECO Economic Forecasts 
  All Day  EUR  Eurogroup Meetings 
  9:30pm  NZD  BusinessNZ Services Index 
Tue Mar 15  12:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
    AUD  HPI q/q 
  2:00am  CNH  Retail Sales y/y 
    CNH  Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 
    CNH  Industrial Production y/y 
    CNH  NBS Press Conference 
    CNH  Unemployment Rate 
  7:00am  GBP  Average Earnings Index 3m/y 
    GBP  Claimant Count Change 
    GBP  Unemployment Rate 
  7:30am  CHF  PPI m/m 
  7:45am  EUR  French Final CPI m/m 
  9:00am  EUR  Italian Trade Balance 
  10:00am  EUR  ZEW Economic Sentiment 
    EUR  German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
    EUR  Industrial Production m/m 
  All Day  EUR  ECOFIN Meetings 
  12:15pm  CAD  Housing Starts 
  12:30pm  CAD  Manufacturing Sales m/m 
    USD  PPI m/m 
    USD  Core PPI m/m 
    USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index 
  2:30pm  AUD  CB Leading Index m/m 
  Tentative  NZD  GDT Price Index 
  8:00pm  USD  TIC Long-Term Purchases 
  9:45pm  NZD  Current Account 
  11:30pm  AUD  MI Leading Index m/m 
  11:50pm  JPY  Trade Balance 
Wed Mar 16  4:30am  JPY  Revised Industrial Production m/m 
  9:00am  CHF  Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 
  12:30pm  CAD  CPI m/m 
    CAD  Common CPI y/y 
    CAD  Median CPI y/y 
    CAD  Trimmed CPI y/y 
    CAD  Core CPI m/m 
    CAD  Wholesale Sales m/m 
    USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  Import Prices m/m 
  2:00pm  USD  Business Inventories m/m 
    USD  NAHB Housing Market Index 
  2:30pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
  6:00pm  USD  FOMC Economic Projections 
    USD  FOMC Statement 
    USD  Federal Funds Rate 
  6:30pm  USD  FOMC Press Conference 
  9:45pm  NZD  GDP q/q 
  11:50pm  JPY  Core Machinery Orders m/m 
Thu Mar 17  12:30am  AUD  Employment Change 
    AUD  Unemployment Rate 
    AUD  RBA Bulletin 
  10:00am  EUR  Final CPI y/y 
    EUR  Final Core CPI y/y 
  12:00pm  GBP  MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 
    GBP  Monetary Policy Summary 
    GBP  Official Bank Rate 
  12:30pm  CAD  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
    USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
    USD  Building Permits 
    USD  Housing Starts 
  1:15pm  USD  Industrial Production m/m 
    USD  Capacity Utilization Rate 
  Tentative  CAD  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
  2:30pm  USD  Natural Gas Storage 
  11:30pm  JPY  National Core CPI y/y 
Fri Mar 18  12:01am  GBP  GfK Consumer Confidence 
  Tentative  JPY  Monetary Policy Statement 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Policy Rate 
  4:30am  JPY  Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Press Conference 
  7:00am  GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
  10:00am  EUR  Trade Balance 
  Tentative  GBP  10-y Bond Auction 
  Tentative  EUR  German 30-y Bond Auction 
  12:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
    CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
    CAD  Foreign Securities Purchases 
    CAD  NHPI m/m 
  2:00pm  USD  Existing Home Sales 
    USD  CB Leading Index m/m 

 

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