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With the Federal Reserve going all-in with the hawkish language, traders will be watching a barrel-load of key US economic data this week for clues as to the likely course of action by the central bank in the months ahead. PCE inflation, PMI releases and the all-important nonfarm payrolls report mean this will be a busy week ahead. 

Inflation 

US CPI inflation hit 7.9% in February, the highest level for 40 years. Now the focus will be on this week’s PCE inflation report, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.  

Last month’s report covering the month of January showed the PCE price index increased 6.1 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services. Energy prices increased 25.9 percent while food prices increased 6.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for January increased 5.2 percent from one year ago. 

Market pricing suggests the Fed could do two back-to-back 50bps hikes at the next two meetings. Recent rhetoric from several Fed officials indicate growing support for a more hawkish move. Jay Powell left the door open to 50bps hikes last week, saying inflation was much too high. The core PCE inflation number will help policymakers decide.

Jobs 

The jobs report has arguably taken on a little less significance of late, since we know the labour market is extremely tight and inflation is the main worry for the Fed. The last two reports have indicated very strong labour market growth at the start of the year and this trend is likely to Nevertheless, there is still a tendency for volatility around the release and traders will be paying extra close attention to the wage data for signs of a wage price spiral so feared by policymakers.  continue. 

Other data 

Market participants will also be watching for the ISM manufacturing PMI from the US, as well as the Chicago PMI. Ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, we get the ADP jobs number, whilst JOLTS job openings are released on Tuesday. 

Ukraine

Oil markets and other commodities will continue to remain sensitive headlines from the Ukraine conflict. Peace talks have yielded little and increasing concerns about tightness in the physical market were evident last week with steep backwardation emerging again in the futures curve.

Major economic data 

Sun Mar 27 2:00am CHF Daylight Saving Time Shift 
  EUR Daylight Saving Time Shift 
  GBP Daylight Saving Time Shift 
Mon Mar 28 Tentative EUR German Import Prices m/m 
 12:00pm GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 
 1:30pm USD Goods Trade Balance 
  USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 
Tue Mar 29 12:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 
 12:50am JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions 
 1:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 
 7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 
  EUR German Retail Sales m/m 
  GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 
 9:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 
  GBP Mortgage Approvals 
  GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 
 2:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 
  USD HPI m/m 
  USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 
 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 
  USD CB Consumer Confidence 
 10:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 
Wed Mar 30 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 
 12:50am JPY Retail Sales y/y 
 1:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 
 All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 
 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 
  EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 
 9:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 
 10:10am GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks 
 Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 
 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
 1:30pm USD Final GDP q/q 
  USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 
 2:00pm CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin 
 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 
Thu Mar 31 12:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 
 1:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 
  AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 
 2:00am CNH Manufacturing PMI 
  CNH Non-Manufacturing PMI 
 6:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 
 7:00am GBP Current Account 
  GBP Final GDP q/q 
  GBP Revised Business Investment q/q 
 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 
  EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 
 8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 
 9:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 
 10:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 
  EUR Unemployment Rate 
 Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 
 Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 
 12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 
 1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 
  USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 
  USD Unemployment Claims 
  USD Personal Income m/m 
  USD Personal Spending m/m 
 2:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 
 2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 
 3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 
 4:00pm CHF Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks 
 Tentative CAD Annual Budget Release 
 10:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 
Fri Apr 1 12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 
  JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 
 1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 
 2:45am CNH Caixin Manufacturing PMI 
 6:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 
 7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance 
 8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 
 8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 
 8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 
 8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 
 8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 
 9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 
 9:30am GBP Final Manufacturing PMI 
 10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
  EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
 1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 
  USD Non-Farm Employment Change 
  USD Unemployment Rate 
 2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 
 2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 
 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 
  USD Construction Spending m/m 
  USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 
 All Day USD Wards Total Vehicle Sales 
Sat Apr 2 3:00pm NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift 
 5:00pm AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift 
 6:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 

 

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