Sunday Nov 8 2020 06:00
26 min
The US Presidential race should be behind us and investors will turn their attention to the specific policy implications, however Donald Trump does not seem to want to go without a fight. Will markets really care if the final result remains in doubt for a little longer? So far, the mood has been risk-on as the Senate stays Republican. Meanwhile, Brexit trade talks will be of crucial importance to sterling and UK equities as time runs out for a deal.
Probably not, but does it matter? At the time of writing, Donald Trump looked odds on to lose the election, but he does not seem to want to go without a legal fight. The president will try every avenue but it’s unclear whether anything can stop Joe Biden becoming president. Markets reacted last week to a Blue White House and Red Senate with relief – it’s good for growth stocks like big tech, less good for value stocks.
Time is ticking – GBP crosses are susceptible to significant headline risk but for cable 1.30 remains the anchor point. Both sides want a deal, but neither wants one at all costs. If anything, you might say that the economic damage and fiscal-monetary response actually provides cover for a no-deal exit. The informal meeting of heads of state in Berlin scheduled for Nov 16th, by which point Macron, Merkel et al will want to have a text to sign off, is going to be the focus point but stay ready for headlines crossing before.
On the economic data front, most of it is backwards looking now Europe has gone into lockdown and the US is coping with the fallout from the presidential election. Keep eyes on the UK GPD print, whilst the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will make its interest rate call on Wednesday.
Open the economic calendar in the platform for a full list of events.
| Date | Time (GMT) | Currency | Event |
| Mon Nov 9 | 5:00am | JPY | Leading Indicators |
| 6:45am | CHF | Unemployment Rate | |
| 7:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance | |
| 9:30am | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence | |
| 11:50pm | JPY | Bank Lending y/y | |
| JPY | Current Account | ||
| Tue Nov 10 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
| 12:30am | AUD | NAB Business Confidence | |
| 1:30am | CNH | CPI y/y | |
| CNH | PPI y/y | ||
| 7:00am | GBP | Claimant Count Change | |
| GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | ||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | ||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | |
| 10:00am | EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | |
| EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | ||
| 11:00am | USD | NFIB Small Business Index | |
| 3:00pm | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | |
| 6:01pm | USD | 10-y Bond Auction | |
| 11:30pm | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | |
| 11:50pm | JPY | M2 Money Stock y/y | |
| Wed Nov 11 | 1:00am | NZD | Official Cash Rate |
| NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | ||
| NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | ||
| 2:00am | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference | |
| 6:00am | JPY | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | |
| All Day | EUR | French Bank Holiday | |
| All Day | CAD | Bank Holiday | |
| All Day | USD | Bank Holiday | |
| Tentative | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | |
| 11:50pm | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | |
| JPY | PPI y/y | ||
| Thu Nov 12 | 12:01am | GBP | RICS House Price Balance |
| 4:30am | JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity m/m | |
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final CPI m/m | |
| GBP | Prelim GDP q/q | ||
| GBP | Construction Output m/m | ||
| GBP | GDP m/m | ||
| GBP | Goods Trade Balance | ||
| GBP | Index of Services 3m/3m | ||
| GBP | Industrial Production m/m | ||
| GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | ||
| GBP | Prelim Business Investment q/q | ||
| 9:00am | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | |
| 10:00am | EUR | Industrial Production m/m | |
| All Day | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | |
| 1:30pm | CAD | NHPI m/m | |
| USD | CPI m/m | ||
| USD | Core CPI m/m | ||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | ||
| 4:00pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | |
| 7:00pm | USD | Federal Budget Balance | |
| 9:30pm | NZD | BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index | |
| 9:45pm | NZD | FPI m/m | |
| Fri Nov 13 | 7:30am | CHF | PPI m/m |
| 7:45am | EUR | French Final CPI m/m | |
| All Day | EUR | ECOFIN Meetings | |
| 10:00am | EUR | Flash Employment Change q/q | |
| EUR | Flash GDP q/q | ||
| EUR | Trade Balance | ||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core PPI m/m | |
| USD | PPI m/m | ||
| 2:30pm | GBP | CB Leading Index m/m | |
| 3:00pm | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | |
| USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | ||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage |
Don’t forget to tune into XRay for more updates.
| Date | Company | |
| 9-Nov | McDonald’s Corp. | Q3 2020 Earnings |
| 9-Nov | Softbank Corp. | Q2 2020 Earnings |
| 10-Nov | adidas | Q3 2020 Earnings |
| 10-Nov | Deutsche Post AG | Q3 2020 Earnings |
| 11-Nov | Tencent Holdings Ltd | Q3 2020 Earnings |
| 11-Nov | Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp | Q3 2020 Earnings |
| 11-Nov | Air Products and Chemicals Inc. | Q4 2020 Earnings |
| 11-Nov | Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd | Q3 2020 Earnings |
| 12-Nov | Walt Disney | Q4 2020 Earnings |
| 12-Nov | Cisco Inc. | Q1 2021 Earnings |
| 12-Nov | Siemens AG | Q4 2020 Earnings |
| 12-Nov | Deutsche Telekom AG | Q3 2020 Earnings |
| 12-Nov | Merck KGaA | Q3 2020 Earnings |
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