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As the war in Ukraine enters its seventh week, market attention remains on the situation on the ground and peace talks. Meanwhile traders will be eyeing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s commentary around when it could pull the trigger with a rate hike, whilst minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be parsed for clues about how close policymakers are to hiking rates by 50bps and how worried they are about a wage price spiral. 

RBA 

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday for its latest policy decision.  An interest-rate rise this year is “plausible,” Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said at the beginning or March. But the RBA has certainly not nailed its colours to the mast for hikes like the Federal Reserve. In February the Australia central bank ended its bond buying programme, citing an improved economic outlook, unemployment at a 13-year low of 4.2%, and higher inflation. Markets have started to price in some modest tightening this year. 

FOMC minutes 

Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are due on Wednesday. These will provide greater insight into policymakers’ thinking after the US central bank raised rates for the first time since 2018. The Fed’s new median dot plot calls for 7 hikes this year to 1.9%, with members pencilling in 2.8% further out, which would take the fed funds rate above neutral.  Since that call, we’ve heard from a range of policymakers suggesting that it could go faster than the dot plot implied. Markets have priced in back-to-back 50bps hikes. Last week the 2s10s curve inverted, raising recession fears. 

ISM  

On Tuesday, the big data release will be the US ISM services survey. Last month’s report showed economic activity in the services sector grew in February for the 21st month in a row. However, it also pointed to broadening price pressures beyond simply demand for goods.  

China data 

There is a Chinese bank holiday on Monday, but later in the week market participants will look to the Caixin services PMI and China trade data. Recent lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere has already got the market worried about Chinese growth prospects, but the data won’t show this up yet. 

Ukraine  

Attention will naturally fall on Ukraine and its war with Russia, and any progress with peace talks. Commodity prices are likely to remain volatile and we should note that as we enter April the market will start to lose even more Russian barrels. Only now, over a month into the war, are we beginning to see strong signs that Russian well-head production is declining, as exports, especially of refined products, drop. 

 

Major economic data 

 

Sat Apr 2 3:00pm NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift 
 5:00pm AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift 
 6:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 
Sun Apr 3    
Mon Apr 4 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 
 All Day CNH Bank Holiday 
 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 
 2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 
 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 
 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 
 9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 
 1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m 
 3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 
 3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey 
 Tentative NZD NZIER Business Confidence 
 10:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 
Tue Apr 5 12:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 
  JPY Household Spending y/y 
 All Day CNH Bank Holiday 
 4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 
 5:30am AUD Cash Rate 
  AUD RBA Rate Statement 
 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 
 8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 
 8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 
 8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 
 8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 
 9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 
 9:30am GBP Final Services PMI 
 All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings 
 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance 
  USD Trade Balance 
 2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 
 3:00pm USD ISM Services PMI 
 Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 
Wed Apr 6 2:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 
 2:45am CNH Caixin Services PMI 
 7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 
 9:30am GBP Construction PMI 
 10:00am EUR PPI m/m 
 Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 
 Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 
 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 
 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 
 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 
 10:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 
Thu Apr 7 2:30am AUD Trade Balance 
 4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 
 6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 
 6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 
 7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 
  GBP Halifax HPI m/m 
 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 
 Tentative GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q 
 10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 
 12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 
 1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 
 3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 
 8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 
Fri Apr 8 12:50am JPY Current Account 
 2:30am AUD RBA Financial Stability Review 
 Tentative CNH Trade Balance 
 Tentative CNH USD-Denominated Trade Balance 
 6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 
 7:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 
 9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 
 1:30pm CAD Employment Change 
  CAD Unemployment Rate 
 3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 

 

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