The markets month ahead: key events for your November trading diary

Get a preview of the month’s important market-moving events with our November trading preview.

Economic events to watch in November

RBA rate statement – Tuesday November 2^nd

The Reserve Bank of Australia kicks things off in November with its latest rate statement. Rates were previously held at their historic yields last time around, but rising bond yields could force Governor Phillip Lowe’s hand this month.

FOMC statement – Wednesday November 3^rd

The Federal Reserve speaks on Wednesday November 3^rd. Markets are expecting Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC to finally announce tapering. It’s been on the cards for a while, but with labour markets down and inflation up, it might be time to act.

Bank of England rate statement – Thursday November 4^th

The central bank statements come thick and fast at the start of November. Next up is the Bank of England. This month will likely be a showdown between the hawks and the doves on the Monetary Policy Council. Governor Bailey is particularly hawkish and may convince others that a rate hike is the way to go as inflation bites into the UK economy.

OPEC-JMMC meetings – Thursday November 4^th

November begins with a very busy week for the markets. A fresh month means another set of OPEC-JMMC meetings. No surprises are expected this time around. The cartel will likely stick to its 400,00bpd increase, despite calls from some major crude consumers to further open the taps.

US nonfarm payrolls – Friday November 5^th

The United States’ labour market is under the spotlight at the start of the month too. October’s data will be crucial after two consecutive nonfarm payroll misses. August and September’s numbers fell massively short of expectations so markets will be watching this week’s print with eagle eyes.

US Core CPI data – Wednesday November 10^th

The Fed’s favourite inflation metric is released on Wednesday 10^th. It appears American consumers are continually being squeezed. Inflation is running hot still, even though the Fed believes high prices are all transitionary. This month’s core CPI release should clear the picture up a bit.

UK preliminary GDP – Thursday November 11^th

After better-than-expected GDP forecasts at this year’s Autumn Budget, the UK reports its preliminary Q3 GDP numbers on the 11^th of November. Currently, the British Chamber of Commerce doesn’t seem to match the Treasury’s optimism. The BCC puts Q3 growth at 2.8% – a downward revision of its previous 3.5% figure.

US retail sales – Tuesday November 16^th

October retail data for the United States comes this month. Retail sales have been beating expectations for the past two months. Observers had previously thought high inflation would hamper growth, but sales data has been defiantly creeping upward.

EU PMIs – Tuesday November 23^rd

Supply chain issues have been weighing hard on global productivity across the year. The EU is yet to escape those pressures. With this month’s PMI data we’ll be able to gauge how services and manufacturing is performing across the bloc. For context, The eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to 56.2 in September from 59.0 in August.

RBNZ rate statement – Wednesday November 24^th

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand became one of the first global central banks to hike rates in October. Presumably, it’ll be staying the course this month, but you never know with how pandemic economics can shift from week to week.

Major economic data