The markets month ahead: February events for your trading diary

As 2022 rolls on, so do the big economic events. We’ve profiled some of the big ones below in our February 2022 preview.

Economic events to watch in February

OPEC-JMMC meetings – Wednesday February 2^nd

February’s OPEC+ meeting should have much the same tone as January’s. Expect to see the cartel agree to pump a further 400,000 bpd of crude in March. That said, the near $90 oil price (at the time of writing) and tight capacity for smaller members may prompt a leftfield strategic rethink.

Bank of England rate statement – Thursday February 3^rd

Some have called the Bank of England slow to act with inflation running hot in the UK’s economy. Word on the street is Governor Bailey and the Monetary Policy Committee are poised to hike rates a further 25 basis points on this meeting.

European Central Bank rate statement – Thursday February 3^rd

The BoE might be planning a rate hike, but its contemporaries in Brussels are not planning any such moves this year. The European Central Bank is sticking to its guns, even as inflation pressure builds, so instead we’re predicting a fairly mundane rate statement from the ECB this February.

US nonfarm payrolls – Friday February 4^th

January’s job market numbers are in focus today with the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls. Labour markets have disappointed for two consecutive months stateside. The Fed and US will be watching closely to see if things picked up in January.

US CPI – Thursday February 10^th

US consumer prices jumped at their highest level in four decades in December, as reported in January’s CPI reading. We know inflation is running hot, and we know the Fed is planning fairly aggressive rate hikes to cope. Perhaps February’s CPI report will provide the Fed with a further kick if inflation continues to burn.

US PPI – Tuesday February 15^th

While consumer goods costs jumped massively in December, the month saw PPI rise at a modest rate of 0.2%. That said, US PPI is up 9.7% across the year, showing that something has to be done to help cool inflation.

FOMC meeting minutes – Wednesday February 16^th

What is that? Well, the talk is rate hikes. The Fed has taken a hawkish pivot in recent months. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes for January will let us get under the Fed’s hood for a clearer view on its policymaking decisions ahead of any further rate increases.

EU Flash PMI data – Monday February 21^st

European productivity is in the spotlight this month too with another batch of PMI readings. Markets and the ECB will be hoping to carry over some momentum from January. The IHS Markit Composite PMI reading for last month pushed the index to a 5-month high, the PMIs coming in at 58.7.

RBNZ rate statement – Wednesday February 23^rd

Forex traders have priced in a further rake hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this month. The RBNZA was one of the first central banks to hike rates and has already pushed it up to 0.75%. A further increase could be on the way, with economic observers expecting a rates to hit 2.5% by 2023.

US Core PCE price index – Friday February 25^th

The Fed’s favourite inflation indicator rounds off our preview of what to watch in February. PCE inflation reached a 40-year high last month, at 5.8%, which goes someway towards explaining why the Federal Reserve has shaken off its dove’s feathers and adopted a hawkish stance. Let’s see how hot inflation is running in January with this print.

Major economic data