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Better-than-expected results in Q3 fail to support recent

The initial public offerings (IPO) market appears to be heating up after a long period of dormancy. In the third quarter of 2023, 30 IPOs collectively raised $7.8 billion, surpassing the total amount raised throughout the whole of 2022, according to a report by Renaissance Capital. 

The majority (63%) of these funds came from the highly anticipated IPO of Softbank-backed chipmaker Arm Holdings, which secured an impressive $4.9 billion. Not only did Arm's IPO mark the most substantial tech offering since 2019, but it also positioned itself as one of the largest IPOs in U.S. history.

However, Arm was not the only prominent player to debut in the IPO scene in Q3. The market also saw enthusiastic receptions for the IPOs of grocery delivery firm Instacart (officially registered under the name Maplebear) and marketing software company Klaviyo.

These companies initially saw strong starts on the stock charts following their IPOs — however, all three have faced declines in the weeks that followed. The stock price struggles have only intensified after the release of each company's respective earnings reports.

 

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IPO earnings: Markets bearish after Klaviyo, Arm and Instacart report earnings

Klaviyo was the first to release its third-quarter results on November 7. The company reported having 135,000 customers by the end of the three-month period ending September 30, reflecting a nearly 24% increase year-over-year. The number of customers generating over $50,000 in annual recurring revenue also surged by 89%. Klaviyo beat revenue expectations, reporting $175.8 million, and provided a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that surpassed analysts' estimates.

Despite these positive figures, the stock saw a sharp decline of 12.5% the day after reporting and is currently trading around $28.50 — well below its IPO price of $30 per share.

A similar pattern unfolded for Arm Holdings and Instacart, with both stocks declining after their respective results. Arm closed down 5.2% on November 9 due to a lighter-than-expected fiscal first-quarter forecast, which offset the company's 28% year-over-year growth in its fiscal second quarter and earnings that more than doubled from the previous year. 

Similarly, despite Instacart reporting Q3 revenue that exceeded expectations, rising 14% year-over-year to $764 million, CART shares fell 10.1% on November 9. CEO Fidji Simo's comments on potential challenges, including lower consumer spending, inflation, and interest rates impacting current and near-term growth, likely contributed to the stock decline.

At the time of writing, Arm's stock is trading slightly above its IPO price of $50, while Instacart stock is trading below its $30 per-share IPO price.

 

Analysts positive on recent IPO stocks despite Q3 earnings

Despite the less-than-favorable reactions to their Q3 earnings reports and underwhelming post-IPO performances, analysts maintain an overwhelmingly optimistic outlook on all three stocks, according to a recent report by Kiplinger. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that Klaviyo, Arm and Instacart all hold consensus Buy ratings as of November 15.

Mizuho Securities analyst Siti Panigrahi says Klaviyo "offers an attractive longer-term story as the business shifts to a broader digital relationship platform, expands up-market, and gains traction internationally”. With shares trading close to their IPO price, "we believe Klaviyo currently offers an attractive entry point”, Panigrahi adds.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya admitted that Arm Holdings’ results were "lumpy”, but reiterated a Buy rating on the stock, citing expectations that core royalty revenue was "on the cusp of re-accelaration" and amid "more confident" smartphone forecasts from top clients Qualcomm and MediaTek.

Stifel analyst Mark Kelley is optimistic about Instacart's earnings, stating that the company “is on the right path with solid execution in its first quarter” — in part to favorable trends in advertising and the introduction of its Instacart+ membership option.

When considering shares for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.

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