Week Ahead: Prepare for the Q3 earnings blitz

Week Ahead

Wall Street will be alive with the sound of incoming earnings reports when Q3 earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. On the data side, we get US CPI data plus a look under the Fed hood with the latest FOMC meeting notes.  

Key inflation metric with US CPI report 

First up is Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report, gauging inflation in the US. 

Following September’s release of August’s numbers, Jerome Powell and his colleagues are sticking to the script: that all this high inflation is simply transitionary. Will Wednesday’s data back this view up? 

For context, the last CPI report published in September showed things had cooled a little in August. Underlying prices rose at their slowest rate for six months up to then. Overall CPI rose 0.3% after gaining 0.5% in July. In the 12 months through August, CPI increased 5.3% after soaring 5.4% year-on-year in July. 

Some Fed members are not worried though. 

“I’m comfortable in thinking that these are elevated prices, that they will be coming down as supply bottlenecks are addressed,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told CNBC. “I think it could be longer than we were expecting, absolutely, there’s no doubt about it. But I think the continuing increase in these prices is unlikely.” 

Fuel prices are on the rise though. Oil & gas skyrocketed across last week. Higher oil prices generally points towards higher input and transport costs across multiple sectors, which may then be lumped onto the consumer, resulting in higher prices across the board. That said, high energy costs and their knock on effects may be expressed more clearly in next month’s CPI print, rather than Wednesday’s. 

FOMC meeting minutes to give insights into Fed thinking 

Wednesday also sees the release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes for its September get together. 

We know the script now: rates to stay low; tapering to come soon. 

That said, we also know some of the more hawkish fed members are projecting earlier-than-anticipated rate hikes. There is a feeling that higher rates could come next year.  

Chairman Powell also added his voice to the chorus of those warning against failing to raise the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned at the end of September the US government could run out of cash if action isn’t taken. 

Defaulting on US debt would cause “significant damage” to the US economy, according to Powell. President Biden has indicated that there is a real possibility for a debt hike, so the crisis may be averted.  

In terms of steering the economy, however, tapering is probably the big one. It’s thought that the Fed will remove support incrementally until it’s gone altogether by the end of 2022. 

It’s a strong sign that the US is aiming to get back to normal economic times quickly. But the threat of new COVID-19 variants still looms large. Let’s hope there’s not another new Delta forcing a fresh wave of lockdowns in 2022 or the Fed will be left holding the bag once again. 

Earnings season is here again 

Let’s head to Wall Street. Third-quarter earnings are about to start pouring in from the mega caps as earnings season begins anew this week.  

As ever, we’re kicking things off with the big investment banks who reported stunning growth numbers in Q2. Will the momentum roll on? JPMorgan, Wells Faro, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, amongst others, will start the earnings ball rolling with the first report landing from JP landing on Wednesday. 

Although growth looks like it is slowing from Q2 2021’s bumper results, we could still be on for a high-performing quarter. US financial data group FactSet predicts S&P500 companies will enjoy Q3 earnings growth of 27.6% – the third highest year-on-year earnings growth rate reported by the index since 2010. 

There are also supply chain snags to contend with in Q3. They existed across the first half of the year, but with the prices of raw material and energy increasing, we may see a slowing down of results. 

Certainly, the likes of Apple warned that sales growth will drop off towards the end of the year, but let’s see what happens. 

Our US earnings season calendar will keep you up to date of which mega caps are reporting and when so you can plan your trades based on this quarter’s earnings reports. You’ll also a preview of companies reporting this week below. 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT+1  Asset  Event 
Tue Oct-12  10:00am  EUR  ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  10:00am  EUR  German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  3:00pm  USD  JOLTS Job Openings 
       
  6:01pm  USD  10-y Bond Auction 
Wed Oct-13  1:30pm  USD  CPI m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Core CPI m/m 
  6:01pm  USD  30-y Bond Auction 
  7:00pm  USD  FOMC Meeting Minutes 
       
Thu Oct-14  1:30am  AUD  Employment Change 
  1:30am  AUD  Unemployment Rate 
  1:30pm  USD  PPI m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Core PPI m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  4:00pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Fri Oct-15  1:30pm  USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index 
  3:00pm  USD  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
  Tentative  USD  Treasury Currency Report 

 

Key earnings data 

Wed 13 Oct  Thu 14 Oct  Fri 15 Oct 
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) PMO  Bank of America Corp (BAC) PMO  Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) PMO 
     
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) E  Citigroup Inc (C) PMO  Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) PMO 
     
  Morgan Stanley (MS) PMO   

 

US CPI inflation on the money, futures higher

Dow futures rallied and pointed to a solid opening for Wall Street after another hot inflation print. Inflation remains elevated but the print did not exceed already lofty expectations. Dow being called to open up about 50-60pts, with the S&P 500 seen opening up around 4,442. US 10yr yields slipped and now trade a shade under 1.36%, gold moved up on the print to $1,745 from $1,735, whilst the dollar was offered on the news with EURUSD back to 1.1750 area having tested the YTD lows earlier in the session, before paring gains.

Increasing sense that inflation is here to stay but we’re not sensing the Fed is getting more angsty just yet, so allowing gold to climb. Indeed if anything, deceleration in price growth allows the Fed to take a slower route to the taper, so risk is finding some bid. Elsewhere the bid for equities filtered through to the FTSE 100, which hit a new HOD above 7,200, marking its strongest intra-day level since the pandemic struck.

Headline inflation was pretty much on the money and steady at 5.4% year-on-year, with prices advancing 0.5% in July vs the +0.9% whopper in June. Core month-on-month was down to +0.3% from the +0.9% in June and a little light of expectations for +0.4%. It was the smallest rise in four months. Shelter, food, energy, and new vehicles all increased in June, but used vehicles were a lot cooler at +0.2% vs the +10% we have seen in two of the previous three months. According to the BLS, the deceleration in the used cars and trucks index was a major factor in the smaller monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.

Some signs of recovery in pandemic-affected industries and pointing arguably to the kind of staffing and wage pressures felt in the hospitality sector as the food away from home index rose 0.8% in July, its largest monthly increase since February 1981. Ultimately, I would not see this as a narrative-changer for the Fed and the timing of its tapering. Of course, there is ever-present problem for the Fed in trying to balance employment with inflation – real wages, which are declining. Most people have a job, so most people are seeing their purchasing power eroded. What price jobs, jobs, jobs? Real average weekly earnings were -0.1% month-on-month vs -0.9% in Jun, though this was revised to -0.5%.

Week ahead: OPEC+ meets as Delta variant puts pressure on oil markets

Week Ahead

OPEC-JMMC August meetings, pushed back after July’s tough negotiations, take place this week. Traders will look to the cartel for a response to potential dents to demand recovery caused by rising Delta variant numbers worldwide.

Elsewhere, UK Q2 GDP figures are released on hopes of strong growth while US CPI inflation is in focus too with July’s stats coming this week.

It’s fair to say July was a bit of a tense month for OPEC and its allies. It will be hoping to avoid further conflicts when it meets on Thursday this week.

The Cartel has been doing its best to not go overboard with production tapering. Given the relative strength of prices, despite last week’s wobble, its efforts to curb output to protect prices have been broadly successful.

Come July’s meeting, fractures began to appear in the OPEC façade. It’s always a balancing act when its members and allies get together in order to weigh each individual member state’s interests. Oil production is an integral part of all their economies after all. In this case, the UAE was pushing hard to lighten restrictions and redress base levels – something which Saudi Arabia was resisting.

That’s all spilt milk under the bridge now. A deal was reached, after delayed and reorganise meetings and hectic negotiations on both sides. The stoppers have been loosened. New baselines were awarded to members, including chief agitator the UAE, at the eventual outcome.

An extra 400,000 bpd will be added to OPEC+ production monthly volumes from August onwards. That should bring production up to about 2m bpd by the end of 2022. OPEC also confirmed it had extended its production cut deal until April 2022.

This month’s meeting, however, takes on a different hue as rising Delta variant COVID cases continue to mount worldwide. That could majorly impact demand recovery, and thus instigate some kind of retooling to OPEC+’s plans going forward.

A slowdown in Chinese manufacturing could also affect OPEC’s thinking. China is the world’s largest crude importer, so if less oil is needed to fuel its factories then prices could drop as markets recalibrate to lowered Chinese crude imports.

Whatever happens, OPEC will no doubt be extremely keen to avoid any fortnight-long negotiations as happened in July. Either way, Thursday’s meetings will be an interesting watch.

This week also sees the publishing of the UK’s preliminary Q2 growth figures.

Strong vaccine rollout coupled with dropping COVID cases are expected to have supported growth in Q2, following the UK’s1.6% contraction in Q1. Higher consumer spending is likely to be the main growth engine, however, accounting for roughly 70% of gross domestic product between May-July.

So, what are the forecasts? The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) believes Q2 growth will clock in at 4.1% in 2021’s second quarter.

“The UK economy is in a temporary sweet spot with the boost from the release of pent-up demand, if restrictions ease as planned, and ongoing government support expected to drive a substantial summer revival in economic activity, underpinned by the rapid vaccine rollout,” the BCC said in a statement.

Looking long term, overall GDP growth predictions float between the 7-8% mark. The Confederation of British Industry’s forecasts sit at the optimistic end of the scale at 8.1% for the year.

As it stands, however, the UK’s domestic output is still some 8.8% lower than before the pandemic. Long term growth will likely cool with the effects of inflation and lower government support as we move into 2022.

Speaking of inflation, the week’s other key data release is the US consumer price index figures for July.

If the pace of inflation continues, then it will really test the Fed’s resolve. Chairman Powell has committed to the historically low cash rate, and seems content to let the economy run hot, but is this really sustainable?

June’s CPI inflation already caused alarm for some economists. By rising 5.4% year-on-year, the index had risen at its fastest pace since August 2008.

So far, the Fed has characterised inflation as “transitionary” and is still sticking to its dovish outlook. Its data modelling calls for 3% headline inflation by the end of 2021, before falling back to 2.1% in 2022.

Given consumer spending is the US economy’s major growth engine, accounting for roughly 68% of GDP, it’s little wonder why some observers are feeling tetchy and calling for more action. Gross domestic product missed growth expectations in Q1, for instance, as high prices limited consumer spending.

July’s CPI reading may thus be doubly important for the Fed.

It’s a subdued week for earnings on Wall Street, but we still have some large caps reporting. Headliners this week include Walt Disney, Palantir, and Airbnb who all report in on Thursday.

Make sure you check out our US earnings season calendar to see which large caps are still due to share quarterly earnings this week and beyond.

Major economic data

Date Time (GMT+1) Asset Event
Tue 10-Aug 10.00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
10.00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wed 11-Aug 1.30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment
1.30pm USD CPI m/m
1.30pm USD Core CPI m/m
3.30pm OIL US Crude Oil Inventories
Thu 12-Aug ALL DAY OIL OPEC-JMMC Meetings
7.00am GBP Prelim UK GDP
1.30pm USD PPI m/m
1.30pm USD Core PPI m/m
3.30pm GAS Natural Gas

 

Key earnings data

Mon 9 Aug Tue 10 Aug Thu 12 Aug
The Trade Desk (TTD) PMO Coinbase Global (COIN) AMC Palantir Technologies (PLTR) PMO
Viatris (VTRS) PMO Airbnb (ABNB) AMC
Walt Disney (DIS) AMC

Week Ahead: Big banks kick of US earnings blitz

Week Ahead

US earnings season kicks off this week. The large caps will be sharing their earnings reports for Q2 2021. This throws up exciting trading opportunities for investors, as ever, but this quarter’s may be one of the best seasons yet from a corporate perspective. 

Analyst sentiment suggests a bumper quarter is on the way for the large caps. FactSet forecasts suggest a 61.9% growth rate for S&P 500 firms. That would be the highest year-on-year growth rate reported by the index since 2009. 

Big banks dominate earning season’s opening salvos. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are amongst those reporting in the first week. 

Earnings season takes on renewed importance this quarter. The market will be using it to gauge which companies are poised to power out of the pandemic economy toward something like normal operating procedures – and which have struggled. 

We’ve put together a US earnings season calendar detailing the large caps sharing earnings reports this quarter. Check it out to see which companies are reporting to plot your trades for the coming season. 

Away from earnings and turning to data, this week sees the release of June’s US consumer price index reading. 

Headline consumer prices rose 5% year-on-year in May – the fastest rate since August 2008. This was also higher than Wall Street expectations. Core inflation, a measure that doesn’t include food or energy prices, was up 3.8%. That was the sharpest rise for nearly three decades. 

May’s data, compiled by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, instigated a debate around whether the Fed should let the economy run hot. Inflation is one of the Fed’s key metrics, so similar readings in June may prompt a policy change or a rate hike in order to cool the hot post-lockdown economy. 

Fitch suggests CPI will continue to spike well into 2022. The ratings agency believes supply line issues won’t alleviate any time soon, thus will continue to drive prices of consumer goods upward.  

Fitch’s forecasts call for an overall 4.5% yearly rise in core CPI inflation by year’s end 2021, with non-core coming in at 4.1%. Core inflation would then drop to 2.5% by mid-2022. 

We’ll also see the latest US retail sales data this week. The markets will be looking to see if the 1.3% drop in overall sales and 0.7% drop in core retail sales registered in May was a blip, or whether the trend will have continued into June. 

Despite these small monthly decreases, retail sales are up 28.1% on a yearly basis.  

A part explanation for the dip was a trend of consumers turning away from buying goods and finished products and instead turning to experiences. With freedom of movement returning to near normalcy in the United States, spenders are preferring to go out, plan trips, and spend on services, rather than dabbling in some retail therapy. 

Another reason was a 3.4% drop in receipts at car dealerships. The global semiconductor shortage is impacting delivery of new vehicles; thus, sales have started to stall. 

Interestingly, April’s retail sales were revised up at May’s printing. Instead of staying static as was first thought, they actually increased 0.8% month-on-month. 

The Bank of Canada’s newest rate statement is also due. Governor Tiff Macklem confirmed in June that the overnight rate was holding steady at 0.25%, and no changes to the rate were coming any time soon. 

Macklem also committed the Bank to CAD$3bn in weekly Canadian government bond purchases but reiterated that the pace of these would subside as economic recovery progresses. 

Canada was one of the first major economies to begin scaling back its bond purchases in April. Despite this, the economy retracted in April and May, and Q1 GDP growth of 5.6% did not meet expectation, mainly due to winter lockdowns. 

However, the Bank of Canada’s economists are confident recovery will pick up the pace in the coming months. High commodity prices and growth in foreign demand are expected to act as economic tailwinds going forward. 

A tapering of bond purchases is expected with July’s statement on the 14th 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Asset  Event 
Tue 13-Jul  1.30pm  USD  CPI m/m 
  1.30pm  USD  Core CPI m/m 
       
Wed 14-Jul  3.00am  NZD  RBNZ Rate Statement 
  3.00am  NZD  Cash Rate 
  1.30pm  USD  PPI m/m 
  1.30pm  USD  Core PPI m/m 
  3.00pm  CAD  BOC Monetary Policy 
  3.00pm  CAD  BOC Rate Statement 
  3.00pm  CAD  Overnight Rate 
  3.30pm  OIL  Crude Oil Inventories 
  Tentative  CAD  BOC Press Conference 
       
Thu 15-Jul  2.30am  AUD  Employment Change 
  2.30am  AUD  Employment Rate 
  3.00am  CNH  GDP q/y 
  1.30pm  USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 
  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3.30pm  GAS  US Natural Gas Inventories 
  11.45pm  NZD  CPI q/q 
       
Fri 16-Jul  1.30pm  USD  Retail sales m/m 
  1.30pm  USD  Core retail sales m/m 

 

Key US earnings data 

Tue 13 Jul  Wed 14 Jul  Thu 15 Jul 
JPMorgan Chase & Co   Bank of America Corp    
     
Goldman Sachs Group Inc   Citigroup Inc   Morgan Stanley  
     
PepsiCo Inc      
     
Wells Fargo & Co      

Markets look for direction from ECB, US CPI inflation

Morning Note

European stock markets were again lacking direction ahead of today’s closely awaited ECB meeting and a hotly anticipated inflation reading from the US. The FTSE 100 trades a little higher, the DAX a little lower. Wall Street closed lower with the major indices holding to well-worn ranges. The S&P 500 down 0.4% to 4,219.55 but remains just a few points below its all-time high of 4,238.04 set on May 7th.  

Meme stocks attracted the most interest as Clean Energy Fuels – the fourth most talked about stock on the /Wallstreetbets thread yesterday – rallied 31%. AMC fell 10% and Clover Health dropped 23% after a monster rally in the previous session. Today’s most-discussed stocks include WISH, CLF, WKHS, AMC and TLRY. 

 US inflation reading key risk event

If there is a worry about inflation – today’s US CPI print will tell us a lot – then the bond market is not showing it. US 10yr yields fell under 1.49% to the lowest level in 3 months. This is not just a Fed thing – the yield on longer dated paper such as the 30yr is also well off its 2021 highs. Today’s inflation reading still poses a risk to the market. The annual rate is forecast to climb to 4.7% in May, from 4.2% in April, whilst the core reading is seen at 3.4%, with the month-on-month at +0.4%. With the Federal Reserve anchoring its policy goals to employment, another hot reading won’t be too much to worry about. Nevertheless, the print will still lead to some volatility at 13:30 (BST) in index futures, numerous FX crosses and gold. An above forecast inflation reading would reignite market taper fears, albeit this is likely to be short-lived and one to fade as the Fed still has control of this, at least to the extent that the market believes it does.

ECB set to hold steady for now

The European Central Bank (ECB) convenes today amid a much rosier economic outlook than at the start of the year. But with the central bank having communicated its plans to front-load asset purchases, there is not expected to be any material change in policy or communication. It will be hard to avoid taper talk so how the ECB responds to questions around tapering will be of central importance to the market’s expectations and the euro. At the March meeting the ECB said it would pick up the pace of asset purchases, front-loading the PEPP scheme, but that it could still use less than the full envelope of €1.85tn if favourable financial conditions can be maintained without spending it all. The outcome of the March meeting was very much that the PEPP programme is more likely to end by March 2022 than be extended, albeit policy will remain very accommodative well beyond that point. Today it’s likely the ECB will support continuing running PEPP at around €80bn a month before starting to taper in September. 

Yields have been pressing higher but have retreated from the May peaks. The increased pace of asset purchases that was agreed in March came as a response to rising yields at the time. But the economic outlook – chiefly driven by a strong vaccine rollout that was slow to start but is now firing on all cylinders – has improved greatly since then. The ECB has been taking the line that inflation is temporary and rising bond yields reflect better fundamentals, so I don’t think it will be unduly concerned by a higher rate environment now due to the better economic picture. This will make talk of a taper very difficult to ignore. The language around the speed of asset purchases may change somewhat, and this could drive EZ yields + EUR higher. It will be very interesting to see what the ECB says about the state of financing conditions, and it is sure to continue to tie PEPP purchases to maintaining these as ‘favourable’.  

The big risk for EUR crosses around this meeting is: does the ECB silence taper talk with enough vigour to keep yields in check, or does it allow the market to think the more hawkish voices are winning the argument about when the central bank eventually exits emergency mode? With the ECB seen in a holding pattern, there is quite a low bar for a hawkish surprise.

Inflation has picked up since the last meeting, which could see the forecast for 2021 and 2022 revised upwards from the March level. EZ inflation rose to 2% in May from 1.6% in April, the first time it’s been on target in over two years. With growth in Q1 a little light, the rebound in the summer should mean GDP projections remain broadly unchanged. 

ECB speakers have been offering a few titbits since the last meeting. Of particular importance to the speed at which the ECB will exit emergency mode, Christine Lagarde stressed that inflationary pressures will be temporary – sticking to the global central banker script. At the April meeting she said tapering talk was premature. But she remains caught between the hawks and doves. Kazaks and Lane made it clear policymakers will look at the asset purchase programme again in June, which could involve scaling back the programme if the economic situation is better.  There were dovish comments from Panetta in late May, noting that it was too early to taper bond purchases. Banque de France Governor, Villeroy de Galhau, stressed that the ECB is going to be at least as slow to tighten as the Federal Reserve. 

Finally, London’s IPO market is showing signs of fatigue. Broker Marex has pulled its planned listing, while fuel cell company Elcogen and miner Tungsten have both delayed planned floats. Whilst there may be more to the Marex decision than simply ‘challenging IPO market conditions’, it does rather seem there is some amount of investor fatigue after a deluge of new issuance in the first quarter. Wise to pause. In the case of Marex, it may be wise to steer clear. 

Week ahead: Inflation steals show as ECB & BoC speak

Week Ahead

Inflation is everywhere this week. Two major central bank rate decisions, from the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada, are due as inflation starts to bite. Looking at data, the big release is May’s US CPI numbers following April’s surging prices.

Starting with the ECB, higher-than-expected inflation in May means the central bank’s inflation target has been breached.

Eurozone inflation hit 2% for the first time this year in May. The ECB’s policy mandate is to keep inflation close but below that level. Previously, the ECB had predicted that inflation will peak 2% in the last quarter of 2021, then coming down throughout 2022.

Will the fact the 2% target has been reached force a change?

Moody’s doesn’t think so. The ratings agency believes no rate hike will come for several years at least, despite the recent pick up in inflation.

“After economic activity resumes as normal, the inflation rate will likely start to weaken in the second half of 2022 as the effects of one-off price increases begin to disappear from inflation data,” Moody’s said.

While no rate change is forecast, markets will still be watching closely to see if there are any tweaks in ECB policy at Wednesday’s press conference.

The central bank’s more hawkish council members have been hoping for a relaxation of PEPP, the EU stimulus package, by the second half of 2021. Certainly, if inflation continues to mount, then the bank may be forced to make a change. It all depends on economic conditions from here on out.

“The envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation,” the ECB said in a statement following May’s meeting.

Contrasting with the cautious ECB, the Bank of Canada is a bit of a Covid economics trailblazer. It’s the first central bank to actively begin paring back its bond buying programme and could be one of the first to raise its central bank rate.

That said, the 0.25% rate probably isn’t moving in June. A rate hike will come in H2 2022 at the earliest. June’s statement, by all accounts, is gearing up to be more of a preview of July’s potential changes.

Inflation is still being carefully monitored. In April, inflation was at the higher end of the Bank of Canada’s 1-3%, so economic conditions may force Canada’s central bank’s hand to move a little quicker on rates if we see similar action when May’s data is reported.

At this time a rate hike is unlikely. Instead, the focus is on QE.

According to Reuters, analysts across six of Canada’s top retail banks believe the BoC is gearing up to further slow bond purchases. Forecasts estimate bond buying to be scaled back to C$2 billion ($1.65 billion) per week from the current level of C$3 billion per week next month. Further reductions could come in August.

Looking at data, the May US Consumer Price Index printing is released on Thursday. As a key inflation metric will be carefully monitored by the markets, following April’s higher-than-expected reading.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were anticipating a 3.6% CPI rise last month. The final reading clocked in 4.2% year-on-year – the fastest rate of growth since 2008.

Much of this was from baseline economic factors, rather than completely spiralling inflation. Prices in April 2020 had fallen through the floor thanks to the first wave of lockdowns. As the US economy strengthened, consumer prices have risen too.

As such, the Fed called April’s numbers “transitory” and is still sticking to the script. The Federal Reserve believe inflation will cool off as the year progresses, falling back to its targeted 2% level.

But if a similar reading comes in May, the Fed may be forced into action.

Major economic data

Date Time (GMT+1) Asset Event
Wed 9-Jun 3.00pm CAD BoC Rate Statement
  3.00pm CAD Overnight Rate
  Tentative CAD BoC Press Conference
  3.30pm Oil US Crude Oil Inventories
 
Thu 10-Jun 12.45pm EUR Main Referencing Rate
  12.45pm EUR Monetary Policy Statement
  1.30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
  1.30pm USD CPI m/m
  1.30pm USD Core CPI m/m

 

Key earnings data

Date Company Event
Mon 7-Jun Marvell Technologies Q1 2022 Earnings
Tue 8-Jun GameStop Q1 2021 Earnings
 
Wed 9-Jun Inditex Q1 2021 Earnings

Week Ahead: UK Q1 GDP + US retail sales & CPI releases

Week Ahead

The UK’s Q1 GDP figures are released today, setting the tone for the year to come. Will economists’ optimistic outlines ring true? In the US, retail sales and CPI data reports are due, possibly highlighting potential inflation as the economy surges onwards. Elsewhere, Wall Street braces for another earnings blitz. 

UK GDP Q1 to match optimistic outlook? 

First quarter GDP figures are expected to show a milder contraction than first feared as the country entered a period of lockdown. Last week saw the Bank of England said it expects the economy to have contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter. Nevertheless, the quarterly Monetary Policy Report saw the MPC raise its full-year growth outlook for the UK economy to a full 7.25% increase in GDP. 

This view has been mirrored by economists. Instead of a gloomy portrait, estimates instead paint a sunnier view for UK’s economy. Maybe not golden sunlight uplands just yet, but promising numbers. 

Consensus estimates forecast the drop in GDP to be anywhere between 1 and 2.5%. Barclays, Oxford Economics and ING are cleaving closer to the top end, predicting a 2-2.5% decline. Deloitte, on the other hand, puts the figure at -1.7%. 

We keep banging the vaccine drum, but the impact of the speedy rollout and implementation of a robust nationwide vaccination regime cannot be underestimated. More and more people are heading back to work; lockdown restrictions are lifting; pubs and restaurants will soon be fully open; construction is preparing for double digit growth.  

Indeed, looking to longer predictions, we could be looking at some of the fastest UK GDP growth for 30 years.  

EY ITEM Club’s spring forecast suggests 6.8% annualised growth for the whole of 2021, with the economy returning to pre-pandemic levels by Q2 2022. Goldman is even more optimistic, according to analyst Sven Jari Stehn, with 7.8% forecast. 

Once lockdown lifts fully, and the economy gets back to normal, we’re probably going to see some of the biggest economic expansion figures for decades. It all depends on how successfully the country navigates out of lockdown. 

All eyes on US CPI as inflation stirs 

Inflation could be about to start nibbling at the US economy. March’s CPI data showed a month-on-month jump, so this week’s release charting price rises in April takes on renewed importance. 

Looking at March’s data consumer prices rose 0.6% against February, while they were 2.6% higher than in March 2020. A 9.1% rise in gasoline fuelled the rise in CPI, which was higher than Dow Jones estimated 0.5% monthly and 2.5% annual growth. 

Inflationary pressure on the economy is going to be one to watch going forward. Higher consumer prices could prove a catalyst towards raising the base rate, something which Fed Chair Jerome Powell has so far steadfastly refused to do. At present, the Fed’s strategy is to let the economy “run hot”. 

But still, markets have been pricing in higher growth an inflation across the year so far. Government bond yields have caused a fair few rumbles this year too, with yields reaching some of their highest levels since before the pandemic. Overall, the opening up of the economy, plus major government stimulus, is contributing to an inflationary environment, so the Fed should be watching this month’s CPI data with a keen eye. 

Can April match March’s smash hit US retail sales? 

We’ve seen the US economy step on the gas in 2021, surging 6.4% in Q1. Across the board, the outlook is brighter, if clouded slightly by the shadow of inflation. April’s retail stats will be reported this week, following a blowout in March, but a change in where US consumers spend their cash could be on the way. 

Total US retail sales grew a huge 9.8% month-on-month in March. A combination of warmer weather, lighter lockdowns, and stimulus spending pushed sales higher. Year-on-year growth was colossal, coming in at 30.4%. 

The highest growth areas were sporting goods (23.5%), clothing (18.3%), and motor vehicles (15.1%). 

However, with the economy opening up again, US spenders may turn their attention to other areas. “Experiences” and trips could see large gains this month, as travel restrictions are loosened, while spenders may also start pumping money into hospitality. This could take further cash out of the retail sector, so growth in April may not be as high as March’s terrific performance. 

Earnings season continues on Wall Street 

Wall Street readies itself for a fresh week of large caps sharing quarterly earnings.  

Some titans are reporting in the next earnings season phase. Disney will be one to watch. Parks have reopened, but that will be too late to make any real impact on Q1 earnings. Instead, the focus will be on its Disney+ streaming service, which hoovered up subscribers across the last year. 

Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba’s Q1 earnings will be in focus too. The giant beat estimates by an average of 19.29% across the previous two quarters and could be on track to do so again. Zack forecasts are in the positive, which is normally a good sign for an upcoming earnings beat. 

See below for a round up of large caps reporting this week.  

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Currency  Event 
Mon 10-May  02.30am  AUD  Retail sales m/m 
       
Tue 11-May  10.30am  AUD  Annual budget release 
       
Wed 12-May  07.00am  GBP  Prelim GDP q/q 
  1.30pm  USD  CPI m/m 
  1.30pm  USD  Core CPI m/m 
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 13-May  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri 14-May  1.30pm  USD  Retail Sales m/m 
  1.30pm  USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  2.15pm  USD  Industrial Production m/m 
  3.30pm  USD  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 

 

Key earnings data 

Date  Company  Event 
Mon 10-May  Duke Energy  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Air  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Mariott Inc.  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Tyson Foods  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Panasonic Corp.  Q4 2021 Earnings 
     
Tue 11-May  Palantir Technologies  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Electronic Arts  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  E.ON  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Alstrom  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Nissan  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  NAMCO BANDAI  Q4 2021 Earnings 
     
Wed 12-May  Toyota  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Allianz  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Deutsche Telekom  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Merck  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Bayer  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Hapag-Lloyd   Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Fujifilm  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Polyus Gold  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
Thu 13-May  Alibaba  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Walt Disney  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Airbnb  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Coinbase  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Petrobras  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Telefonica  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  BT Group  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Mitsubishi  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Suzuki  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Rakuten  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Burberry  Q4 2021 Earnings 
     
Fri 14-May  Rosneft  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Honda  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  UNICHARM  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Knorr-Bremse  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Toshiba  Q4 2020 Earnings 

Week Ahead: ECB speaks, US CPI released & BoC makes statement

Week Ahead

We’ve a busy week ahead for European economics with the ECB press conference and rate statement. Are changes to economic policy coming to halt steepening yields? In the US, CPI data is released, gauging the effects of inflation. The Bank of Canada will also be making its overnight rate statement, and a strong economic outlook for Canada could mean a change in bond-buying policy. 

Will ECB tweak its bond buying programme to tackle steepening yields? 

Bond yields have coloured a lot of monetary policy talks in recent weeks, and we’ll be looking to the European Central Bank’s response to steepening curves in this week’s ECB statement and press conference. 

We’ve previously seen Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta make the case for continuing bond purchases and keeping financial support going while the pandemic continues. 

“The steepening in the nominal GDP-weighted yield curve we have been seeing is unwelcome and must be resisted. We should not hesitate to increase the volume of purchases and to spend the entire PEPP envelope or more if needed,” Panetta said on Tuesday 2nd March. 

“Policy support will have to remain in place well beyond the end of the pandemic,” he added. “Risks of providing too little policy support still far outweigh the risks of providing too much. By keeping nominal yields low for longer, we can provide a strong anchor to preserve accommodative financing conditions.” 

Despite this, we saw a slowing in the ECB’s bond-buying programme on Monday 1st March. Then, the Bank had settled €12bn in bond purchases, against €17.5bn the previous week. The decline is due to much higher redemptions, Bloomberg reports. A sign of a policy readjustment to come perhaps? 

This may run counter to Panetta’s wishes: “We must establish the credibility of our strategy by demonstrating that unwarranted tightening will not be tolerated.” 

We have ways to react to this,” Jens Weidmann, Governor of Germany’s Bundesbank, told CNBC. “The PEPP comes with flexibility and we can use this flexibility to react to such a situation.” 

The EU’s emergency bond buying programme will last until March 2022 as it stands, with total purchases coming in at €1.85tn. Weidmann indicated that the ECB may step up purchases again in the wake of rising yields. 

“This is one element that is on the table, to use the flexibility we have in implementing the PEPP,” Weidmann said. “But again, the first step is to analyse the root causes and also to see what effect we have on our ultimate objective which is price stability.” 

Yields and the ECB’s response will take centre stage when it makes its next announcement on March 11th. 

US CPI, yields, and inflation

We’ll also get to see if inflation is really starting to bare its teeth in the US with the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor. 

Rising US bond yields have essentially been the talking point for the last couple of weeks, as they have affected financing global. Yields on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury Note passed 1.3% on February 17th and have since jumped to almost 1.6%. 

Yields tend to rise with inflation expectations as bond investors become less inclined to sit on low or negative-yielding assets in real terms. Higher yields can also mean more debt servicing for major firms. This tends to knock stock markets as traders reassess the environment for investing.  

Prior to this, January’s CPI actually showed a retraction, when inflation declined to 0.3%. Year on year, the CPI stayed flat at 1.4%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged lower to 1.4% in January from 1.6% in December and came in lower than the market expectation of 1.5%. 

Price pressures are likely to have been stronger in February.  

The higher yields and inflation levels are also being watched under the context of further stimulus. Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion package is very likely to be passed soon, which will induce, it’s hoped, more spending and consumption throughout the US economy. With more readily available cash, inflation may edge higher. 

There’s a lot to be gleaned from this month’s US CPI release. 

BoC rate statement – no major changes expected 

The Bank of Canada will set out its latest rate policy this week. Could we see an easing of economic support? Preliminary GDP reports suggest Canada’s economic outlook is relatively healthy, so a reduction in bond purchases could be on the horizon.  

In a January press release, Canada’s central bank stated it will hold current level of policy rate until its inflation objective is achieved, while continuing its quantitative easing programme, purchasing CAD$4bn worth of bonds each week. 

However, Canada’s latest GDP figures show a resilient economy. The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 9.6% in the fourth quarter, data from Statistics Canada showed on Tuesday March 2nd, beating analyst expectations of 7.5%. 

Interest rates are likely to stay at near-zero until 2023. Mortgage rates have started to creep up, however, in response to steepening yield curves, but the base rate will stay low for another couple of years, says BoC Governor Tiff Macklem. 

Despite some observers believing the stronger economic outlook maybe about to signal a cut in bond purchases, BoC has sped up purchases of provincial bonds as part of an overall strategy to counter rising yields, as well as provide more liquidity to provinces to bolster its economy against the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. 

The central bank bought CAD$436.5 million of bonds via its Provincial Bond Purchase Program last week – the most since the start of that effort in May 

Like all economies, though, it’s probably unlikely that Canada will make any seismic changes during when it makes its rate statement decision on March 10th 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT  Currency  Event 
Wed 10 Mar  1.30pm  USD  CPI m/m 
  1.30pm  USD  Core CPI m/m 
  3.00pm  CAD  BoC Rate Statement 
  3.30pm  CAD  Overnight Rate 
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 11 Mar  12.45pm  EUR  Main Refinancing Rate 
  12.45pm  EUR  Monetary Policy Statement 
  1.30pm  EUR  ECB Press Conference 
       
Fri 12 Mar  1.30pm  CAD  Employment Change 
  1.30pm  CAD  Unemployment Rate 

 

Key earnings data 

Date  Company  Event 
Tue 09 Mar  Deutsche Post  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Continental  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Wed 10 Mar  Oracle  Q3 2021 Earnings 
  Adidas  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  LUKOIL  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Legal & General  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Campbell Soup  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Prada  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Thur 11 Mar  Rolls Royce  Q4 2020 Earnings 

Week Ahead: The economic outlook for the EU, US CPI release & UK GDP unveiled

Week Ahead

In the week ahead, the EU reveals what could be a less-than-optimistic economic forecast. The UK is also releasing GDP figures – is a double dip recession on its way? Over in the US, CPI data is released which could point towards inflation, and earnings season continues on Wall Street with Disney and other large caps reporting in. 

US CPI – is inflation going to ramp up? 

Are the dogs of inflation starting to bark? We’ll find out in the US this week as CPI data for January is reported. 

The Labor Department reported the CPI rose 0.4% in December, following a 0.2% rise in November. Consumer prices may have risen, but the key driver here was gasoline. Gas prices jumped 8.4% in the last CPI review period, account for 60% of the index’s overall growth. Food, on the other hand, rose 0.4%. 

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, CPI growth in December was at 0.1%, kept in check by a decrease in the price of used vehicles, as well as drops in airfares, health care costs, and recreation activities. 

Last month’s CPI readings were in line with economists’ expectations. Overall, the CPI rose 1.4% in 2020, which is the smallest yearly gain since 2015, representing a drop from 2.3% in 2019. 

There are mixed outlooks going forward. On one hand, over $has been pumped into the economy via stimulus packages so far, and President Biden has plans to add an extra $1.9 trillion. Whether that full figure makes it through Congress, we don’t know yet, but either way more stimulus is probably on its way, which could cause inflation to breach targets. 

On the other, price pressures may stay more benign.  Some 19 million Americans are on unemployment benefits. Stress in the labour market could also curbing wage growth and increasing rental vacancy rates are could restrain rental inflation too. 

A not so bright EU economic forecast 

Europe could be about to head into a double dip recession. That’s the stark headline as the EU shares its economic forecast in the week ahead.  

The last quarter of 2020 pulled back any gains made that year, with the EU’s overall economy retracting 0.5% in 2020’s last 3 months. It’s the same story we’ve seen across the year: lockdown loosens, GDP goes up, but virus cases surge; lockdown tightens, GDP shrinks, virus cases still increase. 

The EU is facing particular difficulty in its vaccine programme, although coordinating efforts across the bloc’s many constituent members requires almost Olympian effort. So far, it doesn’t look like it is paying off. Difficulty in sourcing vaccine supplies is one aspect of the EU’s vaccination woes, in particular the recent EU/UK spat over exports of Oxford’s AstraZeneca vaccine.  

The euro has fallen against both the dollar and pound too, with a euro now worth about 88p at the time of writing, and roughly $1.20 – nine-month lows for the currency, and not a great indicator of a healthy economy. 

Will Europe double dip? It’s possible. Basically, the bloc needs to pick up the pace when it comes to vaccination and get people out and about again. Stimulus will play a key role here too, as the first cash from its €750bn package should start reaching the EU’s economy in 2021’s first half. A reason for hope? Maybe, but for now the forecast isn’t particularly bright. 

UK GDP – will the UK be double dipping? 

The UK releases its latest quarterly GDP data this week. Q3 2020 showed rapid 16% growth, according to headline figures published by the House of Commons Library, but that was still down 8.6% compared with the previous year. Will we see a contract or continued growth in the upcoming quarter’s figures? 

The Bank of England’s report from 4th February is actually better than previously feared. UK GDP is expected to have risen a little in the last quarter, to a level roughly 8% lower than Q4 2019.  

This is a little surprising. Most of the UK returned to tough lockdown restrictions during November, with non-essential shops opening. While some were let open again in the run up to Christmas, and businesses of all sorts adapting to changing conditions, it may still not be enough to avoid recession. That said, it was spending season as Christmas and Black Friday fall in the last quarter. Perhaps they‘ve played a role in keeping the UK economy afloat. 

Recession will be still be on everyone’s lips watching Q4’s official GDP figures, as they’ll be a barometer for what’s going to happen in Q1 2021. Lockdown measures are tight across the UK, and non-essential businesses remain shuttered for the foreseeable. Goldman Sachs has reconfigured its UK Q1 2021 outlook for 1.5% growth.  

A mixed outlook then, but there is a small sliver of sunlight through the cloud. The UK’s vaccine rollout has been one of the most successful in the world, with evidence suggesting the spread of the virus is slowing with vaccine uptake. But will businesses remain closed, GDP growth seems out of reach for the UK economy going forward. We’ll know more when official GDP figures are released. 

Earnings season rolls on 

Plenty of large caps are yet to report their latest earnings as earnings season rolls on  Wall Street.  

Disney looks one of the most interesting companies to watch this quarter. The House of Mouse has its fingers in multiple deep pies, but with key revenue streams falling off, like its theme parks and resorts, and of course cinema, it will have to prop those up through gains in other business areas. 

It looks like its working already. Disney+, its own in-house streaming service, has already obliterated subscription forecasts. In April 2020, Disney was targeting 60-90m subscribers by 2024. As of February 2021, subscription numbers had already hit 87m. Now commentators put future subscriber levels in the 250m range.  

As well as its own properties established and developed over decades, Disney’s acquisitions of Marvel and Star Wars basically put two of the most popular franchises in the hands of a company already used to owning, marketing, and creating obscenely popular entertainment properties. Basically, limiting access to both show’s films and TV series together on a single platform is exceptionally shrewd. 

So, while earning may have slumped in physical media, digital output could help propel Walt Disney to a strong quarter. 

Disney is now fourth on Fortune’s list of the World’s Most Admired Companies and first overall for entertainment. Its brand recognition is already immense, but, according to Fortune, its business operations are a textbook case of identifying how and where to succeed.   

A look at some of the key large caps reporting this week can be found below. 

Key economic data 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Wed 10 Feb  1.30pm  USD  CPI m/m 
  1.30pm  USD  Core CPI m/m 
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 11 Feb  10.00am  EUR  EU Economic Forecasts 
  1.30pm  USD  US Unemployment Claims 
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri 12 Feb  7.00am  USD  Prelim GDP q/q 

 

Earnings data 

Date  Company  Event 
Mon 8 Feb  Softbank  Q3 2020 Earnings 
  Take Two  Q3 2021 Earnings 
  Loews  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Hasbro  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Namco Bandai  Q3 2021 Earnings 
     
Tue 9 Feb  Cisco  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Total  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  S&P Global  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Daikin  Q3 2020 Earnings 
  DuPont  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Honda  Q3 2020 Earnings 
  Twitter  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Ocado  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Fujifilm  Q3 2021 Earnings 
  Nissan  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Wed 10 Feb  Coca-Cola  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Toyota  Q3 2021 Earnings 
  Commonwealth Bank Australia  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  General Motors  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Heineken  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Vestas  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  A.P Moeller-Maersk  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  IQVIA  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Sun Life  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Uber  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Thu 11 Feb  L’Oreal  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  AstraZeneca  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Schneider Electric  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Duke Energy  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Kraft Heinz  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Credit Agricole  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Tyson Foods  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  ArcelorMittal  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  UniCredit  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Kellogg  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Expedia  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  HubSpot  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Fri 12 Feb  ING  Q4 2020 Earnings 

RBNZ on hold, US CPI on tap, UK & EU update on growth

Week Ahead

Growth data

With the UK starting 2020 by leaving the EU and striking out on its own, markets would like to see that it ended 2019 on a strong economic footing when preliminary Q4 data is released. The data for most Eurozone members will be the second reading; the preliminary estimates showed expansion of just 0.1% as strong growth in Spain helped to offset contractions in France and Italy. Germany’s Q4 reading will be the flash estimate – analysts expect the Eurozone powerhouse to post a contraction of -0.1%.

RBNZ – Easing cycle is over

A round of strong labour market data last week has markets pricing in stronger odds that the RBNZ is done with its easing cycle. Unemployment dropped to 4% in Q4 and the underutilisation rate, which measures the labour market’s untapped capacity, fell to an 11-year low of 10% in December.

While the Chinese coronavirus outbreak is the latest economic headwind for markets and central banks to contend with, the strength of the domestic data should see the RBNZ confident enough to stand pat and see how the situation develops.

US CPI

Last month’s CPI reading showed the fastest pace of annual inflation in eight years, but a closer look at the numbers revealed some big weaknesses. Month-on-month, price growth slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% in November, core CPI slowed to 0.1% from 0.2%. Average earnings grew just 0.7% in 2019. More soft readings like this will support the market view that Fed policy will remain on hold until well into H2.

Earnings – Kraft Heinz and NVIDIA

Top reports this week will be Kraft Heinz before the market opens on February 13th and NVIDIA after the closing bell the same day. KHC has had a bad start to 2020, declining around 9% even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs. The company is facing weakening demand and a lack of free cash with which to innovate.

Coronavirus fears caused a small stumble in NVIDIA’s continuing rally, with the stock quickly recovering. China accounts for around a quarter of the chipmaker’s revenue, so management may warn that the virus could dent demand in this key market. EPS of $1.66 is expected on revenue of $2.96 billion – both hefty increases on the same period a year ago.

Key Events

(All times GMT)
01.30 GMT 10-Feb China Consumer Price Index
06.30 GMT 11-Feb Daimler – Q4 2019
09.30 GMT 11-Feb UK Preliminary GDP (QoQ) & Manufacturing Production
Pre-Market 11-Feb Hasbro – Q4 2019
After-Market 11-Feb Lyft – Q4 2019
01.00 GMT 12-Feb RBNZ OCR Decision & Monetary Policy Statement
07.00 GMT 12-Feb Softbank – Q3 2019
15.30 GMT 12-Feb US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
After-Market 12-Feb Cisco – Q2 2020
07.00 GMT 13-Feb Barclays – Q4 2019
Pre-Market 13-Feb The Kraft Heinz Company – Q4 2019
13.30 GMT 13-Feb US Consumer Price Index
15.30 GMT 13-Feb US EIA Natural Gas Storage Data
After-Market 13-Feb NVIDIA – Q4 2020
13-Feb Airbus – Q4 2019
07.00 GMT 14-Feb Germany Preliminary GDP (QoQ)
10.00 GMT 14-Feb Eurozone Flash GDP (QoQ)
13.30 GMT 14-Feb US Retail Sales
15.00 GMT 14-Feb US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index

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