Trump's Sudden Russia Policy Shift: Rubio's Influence and Implications

For months, former US President Donald Trump resisted calls for new sanctions against Russia, believing he could strike a deal with President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukrainian conflict, even planning a quick peace summit in Budapest. This week, things took a dramatic turn as Trump canceled those plans and went further, imposing his first direct sanctions on Moscow in his second presidential term, declaring, "The time has come." But according to US and European officials familiar with the matter, this sudden shift also stems from an assessment by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio, a long-time Russia hawk who has called Putin a "gangster," judged that Moscow's position had not fundamentally changed. These officials, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, revealed that Rubio had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, after which the planned in-person meeting was canceled. The reason? It became clear during the call that the Kremlin was once again trying to stall ceasefire negotiations, prolonging the conflict. ## Rubio's Pivotal Role Rubio's influence in this shift in the US administration's stance marks a more significant role being played by the top US diplomat. As Trump's interim national security advisor, Rubio has also advocated for a more assertive approach to the Venezuela issue. His position contrasts with the more moderate strategy toward Russia championed by Witkoff, Trump's close friend and special envoy. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly refuted this account of Rubio's role, saying: "President Trump has always been the leader on foreign policy, and his agenda is carried out by national security officials like Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy Witkoff, a united team behind the President's 'America First' vision." There is no indication that Witkoff, considered one of Trump's closest friends, has lost the President's trust on the Russia issue, or that his influence has diminished. He was traveling in the Middle East this week overseeing the fragile Gaza ceasefire agreement that Trump helped negotiate. ## Internal Disagreements and Russian Confusion But some insiders say that Witkoff's discussions with Putin and other senior officials during the preparation for the earlier Alaska summit led to confusion and gave the false impression that Moscow was ready to make concessions it never intended to honor. White House spokeswoman Kelly denied this claim, saying that Witkoff had 'made it clear to everyone' that President Trump and his team were working towards peace 'on the basis of a complete and accurate understanding of all the influencing factors'. According to informed sources, the atmosphere of the summit held last August was tense because Putin insisted on negotiating on the issue of Ukrainian territory, which frustrated Trump and almost prompted him to withdraw. This time, Rubio took the lead in the preparatory work. The US State Department spokesman had previously described the phone call between Rubio and Lavrov as productive. When asked about Rubio's role in this issue, US State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said that 'the entire team is fully united under the leadership of President Trump'. He added that those who suggest otherwise are wrong. 'Bad actors are pushing a selfish agenda through baseless lies,' he said. 'The achievements that President Trump and his team have made in the pursuit of peace exceed all expectations, and as the President has said, this is largely thanks to the unprecedented success of Special Envoy Witkoff'. Despite the difficulties encountered at the first summit, Trump agreed to meet again after a lengthy phone call with Putin last week. US officials had hoped to capitalize on this diplomatic momentum after Trump won praise for brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after two years of hostilities. But some insiders say that in recent days Russia has submitted proposals to the United States outlining its terms for peace with Ukraine, which included nothing new, including demanding that Ukraine cede more territory. ## Belated Realization and Cautious Progress 'Last time, the United States did not realize how inflexible the Russian side was until after the meeting in Alaska,' says Liana Fix, a senior researcher at the US Council on Foreign Relations. 'This time, they realized it before the meeting, which is progress.' On the Russian side, there was similar confusion. According to a person familiar with the Kremlin's thinking, Russian officials believed after last week's call with Trump that the US President had agreed to their demands, namely that Kyiv give up the remaining parts of the strategically important Donbas region, with Moscow making only symbolic territorial concessions in return. But this source said that one day later, and after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump reiterated his desire for a ceasefire along the current front line - an idea that Moscow had rejected before the Alaska summit. The source said that Lavrov emphasized this disagreement in a call with Rubio on Monday. By that time, the preparations for the summit had already fallen apart. Although Rubio had been involved in talks with Witkoff in Saudi Arabia last February when the government first sought to conduct a direct dialogue with Russia, his more direct intervention this time has reassured many European officials. They said they had previously feared that the United States, under Witkoff's guidance, might lean excessively into Russia's position, thereby putting pressure on Ukraine to accept Moscow's demands. For example, according to people familiar with the matter, Witkoff again pressured the Ukrainian leader during Trump's meeting with Zelensky last week to agree to Putin's demands for the cession of Donbas. ## New Sanctions and Future Possibilities On Wednesday, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, blacklisting state-owned oil giant Rosneft and Lukoil. 'Every time I talk to Vladimir, the conversation is good, but there is no progress,' Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday after announcing the sanctions, adding that the White House may arrange meetings in the future. However, Rubio left the door open to further engagement with Moscow, including future meetings. On Wednesday evening, Rubio told reporters at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington, while preparing to travel to Israel and Asia: 'If there is an opportunity to achieve peace, we will always be ready to engage. I think the President has made it clear repeatedly over the last few months that if we don't make progress on a peace deal, sooner or later he will need to take action, and today is the day he decided to take action.'