OPEC sees robust demand in first oil forecast for 2025

Oil demand to grow next year with China and global recovery as drivers, says OPEC

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has projected a robust increase in global oil demand next year, exceeding growth in supplies supply growth, according to its first detailed forecast for 2025.

The oil forecast for 2025 sees a strong rise of 1.8 million barrels per day in global consumption, driven by China and a recovering global economy.

OPEC sees rival supplies expanding by 1.3 million barrels per day next year. The organization believes oil markets will remain in deficit until the end of 2025 unless Saudi Arabia and its allies significantly increase output. This forecast contradicts predictions of an impending peak in oil demand, with OPEC challenging such notions in a rebuttal on the same day.

“Peak oil demand is not showing up in any reliable and robust short- and medium-term forecasts,” said OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais in a separate statement, pushing back against expectations that climate change will lead to a quick phase-out of fossil fuels.

Despite a surge in oil demand over the past couple of years, driven by a rebound in transport fuel consumption after the pandemic, the long-term sustainability of this trend remains a topic of debate. The International Energy Agency (IEA) foresees a sharp deceleration in demand this year, with an eventual peak this decade due to increased adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Brent crude prices, reflecting an anticipated surplus of oil supply, saw a nearly 20% decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, holding at around $77 per barrel. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on tankers and other vessels in the Red Sea have added uncertainty to supplies from the vital waterway.

At the time of writing on January 19, the continuous futures contract for Brent crude oil on the ICE traded around the $79 mark, up 0.87% over the past 5 days. A similar contract for the U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $73.86, up close to 1.5% over the same period.

Each contract has gained 2.5% and 3.2% year-to-date as geopolitical tensions continue to rise.

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OPEC forecast for 2025 "bullish”, as per Bloomberg

OPEC's early release of estimates for the year ahead, aiming to provide greater transparency, suggests an expected global oil demand increase of 2.25 million barrels per day this year, reaching a record of 104.36 million barrels per day.

These projections imply an average market deficit of about 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, even before the implementation of additional oil production cuts pledged by OPEC and its allies for the first quarter.

As per Bloomberg correspondent Grant Smith, “whether OPEC’s bullish outlook will be borne out is far from clear”. The group’s data indicated an extremely tight market late last year, leading to the announcement of 900,000 barrels a day worth of additional cuts. The full 22-country OPEC+ coalition, which includes major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, is scheduled to hold an online monitoring meeting on February 1, with in-person ministerial meetings scheduled for June 1.

Angola's recent departure from the organization is not expected to impact supplies.