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The situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is set to remain at the forefront of market participants’ minds this week as the Olympics ends in China. Meanwhile core PCE inflation from the US – the Fed’s preferred gauge – is due at the end of the week.  

Russia and Ukraine 

Market participants will be keeping a keen eye on events on Ukraine’s easter border. Headline risks are set to persist, affecting energy markets but also having the potential to whipsaw stocks and bonds.  

US inflation 

No let-up in inflation pressures; that was the story last week as PPI hit 1% month-on-month. On Friday we get the core PCE reading – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation for consumers. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.9% from a year ago in December, the highest reading since 1983. The key thing for inflation watchers will be the month-on-month numbers, which could tell us whether inflation might be peaking. Meanwhile markets will also be parsing a series of flash PMI estimates for the Eurozone, UK and US economies. 


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) convenes this week with the markets betting on a hike, the first of perhaps seven 25bps hikes this year. In an MNI interview, Arthur Grimes, a former RBNZ Chairman and Chief Economist, called on the central bank to hike the benchmark rate by 75bps this week’s meeting. With markets already banking on hiking this year, the kiwi could struggle unless the RBNZ delivers this kind of hawkish surprise. 

Central bank speakers 

Eyes will be on the usual raft of Fedspeakers this week as markets try to figure out policymakers’ appetite for hiking by 50bps in March. Inter-meeting hike chatter has quietened down. Meanwhile we’ll be paying close attention to Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who’ll be speaking at the first annual BEAR (Bank of England Agenda for Research) conference. 

Earnings season continues 

Look for updates from Lucid, BeyondMeat, Moderna and Coinbase as earnings season on Wall Street winds up.  

Major economic data (times in GMT) 

Sun Feb 20  10:00pm    AUD    Flash Manufacturing PMI 
      AUD    Flash Services PMI 
Mon Feb 21  12:01am    GBP    Rightmove HPI m/m 
  12:30am    JPY    Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  7:00am    EUR    German PPI m/m 
  8:15am    EUR    French Flash Services PMI 
      EUR    French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8:30am    EUR    German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
      EUR    German Flash Services PMI 
  9:00am    EUR    Flash Manufacturing PMI 
      EUR    Flash Services PMI 
  9:30am    GBP    Flash Manufacturing PMI 
      GBP    Flash Services PMI 
  Tentative    EUR    German Buba Monthly Report 
  All Day    USD    Bank Holiday 
  11:50pm    JPY    SPPI y/y 
Tue Feb 22  1:00am    AUD    RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks 
  2:00am    NZD    Credit Card Spending y/y 
  5:00am    JPY    BOJ Core CPI y/y 
  7:00am    EUR    German Import Prices m/m 
      GBP    Public Sector Net Borrowing 
  9:00am    EUR    German ifo Business Climate 
  10:45am    GBP    MPC Member Ramsden Speaks 
  11:00am    GBP    CBI Industrial Order Expectations 
  2:00pm    EUR    Belgian NBB Business Climate 
      USD    HPI m/m 
      USD    S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 
  2:45pm    USD    Flash Manufacturing PMI 
      USD    Flash Services PMI 
  3:00pm    USD    CB Consumer Confidence 
      USD    Richmond Manufacturing Index 
Wed Feb 23  All Day    JPY    Bank Holiday 
  12:30am    AUD    Wage Price Index q/q 
      AUD    Construction Work Done q/q 
  1:00am    NZD    Official Cash Rate 
      NZD    RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 
      NZD    RBNZ Rate Statement 
  2:00am    NZD    RBNZ Press Conference 
  7:00am    EUR    German GfK Consumer Climate 
  9:00am    CHF    Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 
  10:00am    EUR    Final CPI y/y 
      EUR    Final Core CPI y/y 
  1:30pm    CAD    Corporate Profits q/q 
  Tentative    GBP    Monetary Policy Report Hearings 
  5:00pm    GBP    MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 
  9:45pm    NZD    Trade Balance 
Thu Feb 24  12:30am    AUD    Private Capital Expenditure q/q 
  8:00am    CHF    KOF Economic Barometer 
  11:00am    GBP    CBI Realized Sales 
  1:15pm    GBP    BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 
  1:30pm    USD    Prelim GDP q/q 
      USD    Unemployment Claims 
      USD    Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 
  2:00pm    CNY    CB Leading Index m/m 
  3:00pm    USD    New Home Sales 
  3:30pm    USD    Natural Gas Storage 
  4:00pm    USD    Crude Oil Inventories 
  5:00pm    USD    FOMC Member Mester Speaks 
  9:45pm    NZD    Core Retail Sales q/q 
      NZD    Retail Sales q/q 
  11:30pm    JPY    Tokyo Core CPI y/y 
  11:50pm    JPY    Retail Sales y/y 
Fri Feb 25  12:01am    GBP    GfK Consumer Confidence 
  5:00am    JPY    Housing Starts y/y 
  7:00am    EUR    German Final GDP q/q 
      EUR    German Retail Sales m/m 
  7:45am    EUR    French Consumer Spending m/m 
      EUR    French Prelim CPI m/m 
      EUR    French Prelim GDP q/q 
  8:00am    CHF    GDP q/q 
      EUR    Spanish Flash CPI y/y 
  9:00am    EUR    M3 Money Supply y/y 
      EUR    Private Loans y/y 
  All Day    EUR    ECOFIN Meetings 
  All Day    EUR    Eurogroup Meetings 
  Tentative    EUR    Italian 10-y Bond Auction 
  1:30pm    USD    Core PCE Price Index m/m 
      USD    Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 
      USD    Durable Goods Orders m/m 
      USD    Personal Income m/m 
      USD    Personal Spending m/m 
  3:00pm    USD    Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 
      USD    Pending Home Sales m/m 
      USD    Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 
  6:00pm    GBP    MPC Member Pill Speaks 




Key earnings data 

21.02  22.02  23.02  24.02  25.02 
 Lucid Group (LCID) E  
The Home Depot (HD) PMO 


Medtronic (MDT) PMO 


Teladoc Health (TDOC) AMC 


Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) AMC 


Lemonade (LMND) AMC 


eBay (EBAY) AMC 


 Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) PMO  

Moderna (MRNA) PMO 


Newmont Goldcorp (NEM) PMO 


Beyond Meat (BYND) PMO 


Block (SQ) AMC 


Coinbase Global (COIN) AMC 


Intuit (INTU) AMC 


Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) E 


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