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The second quarter earnings season unofficially opens with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) this Thursday with markets uncertain about whether analyst expectations for Q2 and beyond can survive a general slowdown in the economy amid higher inflation. On that note, market attention will land on the US CPI inflation report on Wednesday. 

Earnings season 

After declining 20% in the first half of the year, the second quarter earnings season comes at a vital moment for the S&P 500. Analysts still see 10% earnings growth this year and it seems likely that these estimates will need to be revised lower, potentially leading to further declines for the stock market. 

JPMorgan gets the US Q2 earnings season underway July 14th before the market opens. CEO Jamie Dimon’s letter to shareholders is always a must-read view of the US and global economy. Forecast EPS is $2.90 on revenues of nearly $32bn. Our Analyst Recommendations platform tool shows The Street maintains a buy rating on the stock, with a 35% upside average price target. Morgan Stanley (MS) also reports on Thursday, with Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) on Friday. 

Inflation easing? 

US consumer inflation is the focus on Wednesday as markets search for direction from central banks and the path of bond yields. CPI rose 1% in May, up from +0.3% in April, leaving the annual increase at +8.6%, the highest since 1981. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.6% in May, the same rate as in April. Markets have been pushed from pillar to post on a mix of rising inflation and growing concerns about a recession, so this release will be closely watched for signals about the likely path of monetary policy. Produce price inflation data is released the day after. 

Consumer health check 

The US consumer is the focus on Friday with a couple of releases that will be closely watched by market participants. Retail sales numbers for June are due up first, coming off the back of a –0.3% decline in May as inflation bit. After this the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index and consumer inflation expectations numbers. 

Central banks 

On the central bank front, the main focus will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is expected to raise its official cash rate by another 50bps, to 2.5%, when it meets on Wednesday, Having already raise rates by half a percentage point at its last meeting, markets anticipate a 50bps this week to be followed by another in August. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is also expected to raise rates by 50bps to 2% on Wednesday. 

China data 

Friday sees a deluge of economic data from the world’s second largest economy. Strict lockdowns have hampered China’s economic recovery, but we’ll get a better picture with the Q2 GDP report. China’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.4% year on year in the April-June quarter, which would be its slowest expansion since the first three months of 2020. Also on deck are Chinese fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales numbers. 

 

Earnings calendar 

11.07 12.07 13.07 14.07 15.07 
 

PepsiCo (PEP) PMO 

 

 

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) PMO 

 

 

Morgan Stanley (MS) PMO 

 

Citigroup Inc (C) PMO 

 

 

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) PMO 

 

Economic calendar 

Mon Jul 11 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 
  JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 
 7:00am EUR German WPI m/m 
  JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 
 9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 
 Exp 11th-15th CNH M2 Money Supply y/y 
 Exp 11th-15th CNH New Loans 
 Tentative USD Crude Oil Inventories 
 11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 
Tue Jul 12 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 
 12:50am JPY PPI y/y 
 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 
 10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
 All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings 
 11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 
 Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 
 Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 
 6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 
 11:45pm NZD FPI m/m 
Wed Jul 13 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
 3:00am NZD Official Cash Rate 
  NZD RBNZ Rate Statement 
 Tentative CNH Trade Balance 
 Tentative CNH USD-Denominated Trade Balance 
 7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 
  GBP Construction Output m/m 
  GBP GDP m/m 
  GBP Goods Trade Balance 
  GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 
  GBP Industrial Production m/m 
  GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 
 7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 
 10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 
 All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings 
 Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 
 1:30pm USD CPI m/m 
  USD Core CPI m/m 
 Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 
 3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report 
  CAD BOC Rate Statement 
  CAD Overnight Rate 
 3:30pm OIL Crude Oil Inventories 
 4:00pm CAD BOC Press Conference 
 6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 
 7:00pm USD Beige Book 
  USD Federal Budget Balance 
Thu Jul 14 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance 
 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 
 2:30am AUD Employment Change 
  AUD Unemployment Rate 
 5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 
 7:30am CHF PPI m/m 
 All Day EUR French Bank Holiday 
 14th-16th CNH Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 
 9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey 
 1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 
  USD PPI m/m 
  USD Core PPI m/m 
  USD Unemployment Claims 
 3:30pm NAT GAS Natural Gas Storage 
 11:30pm NZD BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index 
Fri Jul 15 3:00am CNH GDP q/y 
  CNH Retail Sales y/y 
  CNH Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 
  CNH Industrial Production y/y 
  CNH NBS Press Conference 
  CNH Unemployment Rate 
 5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 
 10:00am EUR Trade Balance 
 1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 
  CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 
  USD Core Retail Sales m/m 
  USD Retail Sales m/m 
  USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 
  USD Import Prices m/m 
 2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 
  USD Industrial Production m/m 
 3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
  USD Business Inventories m/m 
  USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 

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