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The Federal Reserve meets this week to announce another bumper interest rate hike – the only question left for markets is whether it will be a 75bps move or 100bps. The advanced Q2 GDP reading will tell us whether the US is entering a technical recession and PCE inflation numbers will round out a big week for US data. Meanwhile earnings season on Wall Street hits full speed with tech giants like Apple, Alphabet and Meta and industrials like Boeing, Ford and Caterpillar. 

Federal Reserve 

Markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver another bumper rate hike after its meeting on July 26-27. The question is how big: markets expect a second 75bps but price a roughly one-in-three chance of a full percentage point increase in the Fed funds rate. The Fed will need to balance competing influences on policy thinking. Whilst nominal inflation continues to rise to 40-year highs and exceed expectations, inflation expectations and commodity prices have somewhat rolled over in the last month. And whilst the CPI inflation reading keeps trending higher, core PCE inflation has eased back. 


The advanced reading of US second quarter GDP growth is due Thursday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.6 percent on July 19th, down from -1.5 percent on July 15th. If it were to do, it could signal the US economy has entered a technical recession, after first quarter GDP declined by 1.4% on an annualised basis.  

PCE Inflation 

The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, is released on Friday. Figures released at the end of June showed PCE inflation excluding food and energy fell to 4.7% year on year in May, down from 4.9% in April, with the core inflation reading having peaked at 5.3% in February. Headline PCE inflation was steady at 6.3% in May, down from a March peak of 6.6%.  

Megacap Earnings 

Earnings season hits full speed this week as the largest cap companies and a slew of Dow industrials post quarterly financials. So far about four in five companies on the S&P 500 that have reported topped analyst expectations. Thus far earnings have not been as bad as feared and that is allowing investors to see the glass half full after weeks of worry. Megcap tech is the highlight with Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft on the tape. Meanwhile Dow components McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, 3M, Intel, Procter & Gamble, Chevron and Boeing are among the large cap companies delivering earnings updates. 


Earnings calendar 

25.07 26.07 27.07 28.07 29.07
Newmont Corp (NEM)


3M Co (MMM)  PMO

Coca-Cola Co (KO)  PMO

General Electric (GE)  PMO

General Motors (GM) PMO

McDonald’s Corp (MCD)  PMO

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) E

Alphabet Inc C (GOOG)  AMC

Alphabet Inc A (GOOGL)  AMC

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) AMC

Mondelez (MDLZ)  AMC

Visa Inc Class A (V)  AMC

Automatic Data Processing (ADP)  PMO

Boeing (BA)  PMO

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)  PMO

CME Group (CME)  PMO

The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)PMO

Shopify (SHOP)  PMO

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)  PMO

Ford Motor Co (F)  AMC

Meta Platforms (FB)  AMC

Teladoc Health (TDOC)  AMC

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)  AMC

QuantumScape (QS) AMC

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)  PMO

Mastercard (MA) PMO

Merck & Co Inc (MRK)  PMO

Pfizer (PFE)  PMO

Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK)  PMO Inc (AMZN) AMC

Apple Inc (AAPL)  AMC

Intel Corp (INTC)  AMC

Roku Inc (ROKU) AMC



Chevron (CVX)  PMO

Exxon Mobil (XOM) PMO

Procter & Gamble (PG)  PMO


Economic calendar (BST) 

Mon Jul 25  9:00am  EUR  German ifo Business Climate 
  11:00am  GBP  CBI Industrial Order Expectations 
  2:00pm  EUR  Belgian NBB Business Climate 
Tue Jul 26  12:50am  JPY  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
    JPY  SPPI y/y 
  7:00am  EUR  German Import Prices m/m 
  12:00pm  GBP  CBI Realized Sales 
  2:00pm  USD  HPI m/m 
    USD  S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 
  3:00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
    USD  New Home Sales 
    USD  Richmond Manufacturing Index 
Wed Jul 27  12:01am  GBP  BRC Shop Price Index y/y 
  2:30am  AUD  CPI q/q 
    AUD  Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 
  6:00am  JPY  BOJ Core CPI y/y 
  7:00am  EUR  German GfK Consumer Climate 
  9:00am  CHF  Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 
    EUR  M3 Money Supply y/y 
    EUR  Private Loans y/y 
  Tentative  EUR  German 10-y Bond Auction 
  1:30pm  USD  Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 
    USD  Durable Goods Orders m/m 
    USD  Goods Trade Balance 
    USD  Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 
  3:00pm  USD  Pending Home Sales m/m 
  3:30pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
  7:00pm  USD  FOMC Statement 
    USD  Federal Funds Rate 
  7:30pm  USD  FOMC Press Conference 
Thu Jul 28  2:00am  NZD  ANZ Business Confidence 
  2:30am  AUD  Import Prices q/q 
    AUD  Retail Sales m/m 
  7:00am  EUR  German Retail Sales m/m 
    GBP  Nationwide HPI m/m 
  All Day  EUR  German Prelim CPI m/m 
  8:00am  EUR  Spanish Unemployment Rate 
  Tentative  EUR  Italian 10-y Bond Auction 
  1:30pm  USD  Advance GDP q/q 
    USD  Advance GDP Price Index q/q 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3:30pm  USD  Natural Gas Storage 
Fri Jul 29  12:30am  JPY  Tokyo Core CPI y/y 
    JPY  Unemployment Rate 
  12:50am  JPY  BOJ Summary of Opinions 
    JPY  Prelim Industrial Production m/m 
    JPY  Retail Sales y/y 
  2:30am  AUD  PPI q/q 
    AUD  Private Sector Credit m/m 
  6:00am  JPY  Consumer Confidence 
    JPY  Housing Starts y/y 
  6:30am  EUR  French Consumer Spending m/m 
    EUR  French Flash GDP q/q 
  7:30am  CHF  Retail Sales y/y 
  7:45am  EUR  French Prelim CPI m/m 
  8:00am  CHF  KOF Economic Barometer 
    EUR  Spanish Flash CPI y/y 
    EUR  Spanish Flash GDP q/q 
  8:55am  EUR  German Unemployment Change 
  9:00am  EUR  Italian Prelim GDP q/q 
    EUR  German Prelim GDP q/q 
  9:30am  GBP  M4 Money Supply m/m 
    GBP  Mortgage Approvals 
    GBP  Net Lending to Individuals m/m 
  10:00am  EUR  CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
    EUR  Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 
    EUR  Italian Prelim CPI m/m 
    EUR  Prelim Flash GDP q/q 
  1:30pm  CAD  GDP m/m 
    USD  Core PCE Price Index m/m 
    USD  Employment Cost Index q/q 
    USD  Personal Income m/m 
    USD  Personal Spending m/m 
  2:45pm  USD  Chicago PMI 
  3:00pm  USD  Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 
    USD  Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 


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