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Last week’s blow-up for consumer staples sunk the broader market, so all eyes will be on the latest quarterly earnings from Costco to see if there’s any good news out there. On the data front traders will be watching for US durable goods, EU flash PMIs and some key US inflation data. On the central bank front, it’s the turn of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise rates. 

Economic data 

The economic calendar starts with the German Ifo Business Climate report on Monday. Last month’s report showed sentiment in the German economy stabilised at a low level. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 91.8 points in April, after 90.8 points in March, reflecting primarily less pessimism in companies’ expectations.  

Tuesday rolls in with a batch of flash PMI figures from the Eurozone, which are likely to reflect ongoing concerns about both input and output inflation. Wednesday is US-focused with durable goods orders and the latest FOMC minutes due out. Thursday is pending home sales and the second GDP reading from the US. The week ends on Friday with the core PCE inflation report – the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Jay Powell last week suggested it could get quite hot. “What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that … If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of neutral, we won’t hesitate to do that… We will go until we feel we’re at a place where we can say financial conditions are in an appropriate place, we see inflation coming down… There won’t be any hesitation about that”. 

Costco Earnings 

Last week’s blow-up for consumer staples sunk the broader market. Earnings from Walmart and Target amounted to a red flag on the health of the consumer and helped send stocks on Wall Street to their worst daily decline since 2020. Target declined 25% as it warned on profit margins due to rising costs, a day after Walmart had hurt sentiment with a downgrade. Soaring freight, labour and fuel costs are hurting earnings. Discretionary spending is being hit badly due to inflation already and companies are hurting from not being able to pass it all on. 

Net income last quarter came in at $1.3 billion or $2.92 per diluted share vs $951 million, $2.14 per diluted share last year. Net sales for the quarter increased 16.1%, to $51bn from $44 bn last year. Ecommerce sales are growing around 13%. Investors will be watching for anything on raising prices and, in particular, a rise in fees. Fee increases have happened about once every five years, bringing this June into focus. “Stay tuned,” said CFO Richard Galanti on the last earnings call. 

RBNZ 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the main central bank action this week. The RBNZ is set to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at each of its next three policy meetings, according to Westpac Banking Corp. However, RBNZ’s 2-year inflation expectations index showed a smaller rise than feared, nudging up to 3.29% in Q2 from 3.27%. Market pricing had indicated a very small chance of a 75bps RBNZ hike this week, but the consensus is for a 50bps hike at the May meeting. 

Earnings Season 

     
23.05 24.05 25.05 26.05 27.05 

 

XPeng (XPEV) PMO 

 

Zoom Video (ZM) AMC 

 

 

NVIDIA (NVDA) AMC 

 

 

Snowflake (SNOW) AMC 

 


 Medtronic (MDT) PMO 

 

 

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) AMC 

 

 

 

Major economic data 

Sun May 22    
Mon May 23 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 
 9:00am EUR German ifo Business Climate 
 All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings 
 Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report 
 All Day CAD Bank Holiday 
 2:00pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate 
 11:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales q/q 
  NZD Retail Sales q/q 
Tue May 24 12:00am AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  AUD Flash Services PMI 
 1:30am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 
 7:00am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 
 8:15am EUR French Flash Services PMI 
  EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
 8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  EUR German Flash Services PMI 
 9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  EUR Flash Services PMI 
 9:30am GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  GBP Flash Services PMI 
 All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings 
 11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 
 2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  USD Flash Services PMI 
 3:00pm USD New Home Sales 
  USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 
Wed May 25 2:30am AUD Construction Work Done q/q 
 3:00am NZD Official Cash Rate 
  NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 
  NZD RBNZ Rate Statement 
 4:00am NZD RBNZ Press Conference 
 6:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 
 7:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q 
  EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 
  EUR German Import Prices m/m 
  EUR German Retail Sales m/m 
 9:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 
 Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks 
 Tentative EUR ECB Financial Stability Review 
 1:30pm CAD Corporate Profits q/q 
  USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 
  USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 
 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 
 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 
Thu May 26 12:50am JPY SPPI y/y 
 2:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 
 All Day CHF Bank Holiday 
 All Day EUR French Bank Holiday 
 All Day EUR German Bank Holiday 
 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 
  CAD Retail Sales m/m 
  USD Prelim GDP q/q 
  USD Unemployment Claims 
  USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 
 3:00pm CNH CB Leading Index m/m 
  USD Pending Home Sales m/m 
 3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 
Fri May 27 12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 
 2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 
 7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 
 9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 
  EUR Private Loans y/y 
 1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 
  USD Goods Trade Balance 
  USD Personal Income m/m 
  USD Personal Spending m/m 
  USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 
 3:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 
  USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 
 Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report 

 

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