السبت Oct 2 2021 09:00
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Get a look at the coming month’s important market-moving events with our October trading preview.
OPEC-JMMC meetings – Monday 4th October
The month begins in earnest with OPEC-JMMC meetings. OPEC+ comes together for its monthly policy talks. No shocking surprises are expected this month. Instead, we’ll probably see a rubber-stamping of the planned output increase of 400,000 bpd.
RBA rate statement – Tuesday 5th October
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its newest rate statement at the start of the month. Markets forecast no hike for the foreseeable future. The cash rate will probably stay at its historic low.
RBNZ rate statement – Wednesday 6th October
Joining its Australian cousin in starting the month with a rate decision is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Economists think an increase in the 0.2% cash rate will come – but not the 0.5% increase forecast.
US nonfarm payrolls – Friday 8th October
Jerome Powell and the Fed, plus the wider markets, will be watching the month’s NFP data carefully. August’s data missed the mark by miles – will September’s stats point towards a US labour market surge?
US CPI data – Wednesday 13th October
Consumer Price Index rises cooled in August, backing the Fed’s stance that current high prices are all transitionary. Month-on-month price gains slowed to 0.3%. September’s CPI stats are released on Wednesday 13th of October.
US retail sales data – Friday 15th October
Retail sales across America picked up an unexpected bump in August. Sales were up 0.7% according to the Census Bureau. Observers were calling for a 0.7% decline, driven by rising Delta-variant COVID cases. Will we see an upward swing in September too?
UK CPI data – Tuesday 20th October
UK inflation is running hot. Last month’s report showed it growing at the fastest rate since records began, rising at 3.2%. It may be all transitionary, but if inflation punches above the Bank of England’s 4% target, then the UK’s central bank may be forced to act.
European PMIs – Friday October 22nd
Brace for the monthly European flash PMI blitz with all the key economic activity indicators from France, Germany, and the EU all inbound. Eurozone composite PMI readings for September missed expectations of 58.5 coming in at 56.1. Still in growth, but it looks like activity is starting to slow.
Bank of Canada rate statement – Wednesday October 27th
The first rate statement of Justin Trudeau’s third term comes this month. Governor Tiff Macklem and co. stuck to their guns in September, keeping the 0.25% rate in place and the QE pace the same. It’s probable October’s statement will bring much the same.
ECB Press Conference – Thursday October 28th
The European Central Bank scaled back its bond-buying programme in September in a bid to cool soaring inflation. Its October moves will likely all come down to how EU CPI reacted to the change. Rates stayed at 0% and it’s likely they will in the mid-term.
Date | Time (GMT+1) | Asset | Event |
Mon Oct-04 | 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change |
All Day | All | OPEC Meetings | |
All Day | All | OPEC-JMMC Meetings | |
Tue Oct-05 | 4:30am | AUD | RBA Rate Statement |
4:30am | AUD | Cash Rate | |
Tentative | JPY | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |
3:00pm | USD | ISM Services PMI | |
Wed Oct-06 | 2:00am | NZD | Official Cash Rate |
2:00am | NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | |
1:15pm | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |
3:30pm | OIL | Crude Oil Inventories | |
Thu Oct-07 | 1:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims |
3:00pm | CAD | Ivey PMI | |
Fri Oct-08 | 1:30am | AUD | RBA Financial Stability Review |
1:30pm | CAD | Employment Change | |
1:30pm | CAD | Unemployment Rate | |
1:30pm | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | |
1:30pm | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | |
1:30pm | USD | Unemployment Rate | |
Tentative | USD | Treasury Currency Report | |
Tue Oct 12 | 3:00am | CNH | GDP q/y |
3:00am | CNH | Retail Sales y/y | |
10:00am | EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | |
10:00am | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | |
3:00pm | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | |
6:00pm | USD | 10-y Bond Auction | |
Wed Oct-13 | 1:30pm | USD | CPI m/m |
1:30pm | USD | Core CPI m/m | |
6:01pm | USD | 30-y Bond Auction | |
7:00pm | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | |
Thu Oct-14 | 1:30am | AUD | Employment Change |
1:30am | AUD | Unemployment Rate | |
1:30pm | USD | PPI m/m | |
1:30pm | USD | Core PPI m/m | |
1:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | |
4:00pm | OIL | Crude Oil Inventories | |
Fri Oct-15 | 7:00am | GBP | Retail Sales m/m |
1:30pm | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | |
1:30pm | USD | Retail Sales m/m | |
1:30pm | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | |
3:00pm | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | |
Mon Oct-18 | 2:15pm | USD | Industrial Production m/m |
3:30pm | CAD | BOC Business Outlook Survey | |
Tue Oct-19 | 1:30am | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
Wed Oct-20 | 7:00am | GBP | CPI y/y |
1:30pm | CAD | CPI m/m | |
1:30pm | CAD | Common CPI y/y | |
1:30pm | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | |
1:30pm | CAD | Median CPI y/y | |
1:30pm | CAD | Retail Sales m/m | |
1:30pm | CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | |
3:30pm | OIL | Crude Oil Inventories | |
10:45pm | NZD | CPI q/q | |
Thu Oct-21 | 1:30pm | USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
1:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | |
Fri Oct-22 | 8:15am | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
8:15am | EUR | French Flash Services PMI | |
8:30am | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | |
8:30am | EUR | German Flash Services PMI | |
9:00am | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | |
9:00am | EUR | Flash Services PMI | |
9:30am | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI | |
9:30am | GBP | Flash Services PMI | |
2:45pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | |
2:45pm | USD | Flash Services PMI | |
Mon Oct-25 | 9:00am | EUR | German ifo Business Climate |
Tue Oct-26 | 1:30pm | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m |
1:30pm | USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | |
3:00pm | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | |
Wed Oct-27 | 1:30am | AUD | CPI q/q |
1:30am | AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI q/q | |
3:00pm | CAD | BOC Monetary Policy Report | |
3:00pm | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |
3:00pm | CAD | Overnight Rate | |
3:30pm | OIL | Crude Oil Inventories | |
Tentative | CAD | BOC Press Conference | |
Thu Oct-28 | Tentative | JPY | BOJ Outlook Report |
Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | |
Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |
12:45pm | EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | |
12:45pm | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate | |
1:30pm | EUR | ECB Press Conference | |
1:30pm | USD | Advance GDP q/q | |
1:30pm | USD | Advance GDP Price Index q/q | |
1:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | |
3:00pm | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | |
Fri Oct-29 | 8:00am | EUR | German Prelim GDP q/q |
1:30pm | CAD | GDP m/m | |
1:30pm | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | |
2:45pm | USD | Chicago PMI | |
3:00pm | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | |
Sat Oct-30 | Day 1 | All | G20 Meetings |
Sun Oct-31 | 1:00am | CNH | Manufacturing PMI |
Day 2 | All | G20 Meetings |