Japan’s inflation cools, DAX index hits fresh highs

Dollar at lowest in 5 days, DAX index and FTSE 100 move higher

 The dollar skidded to its lowest point in five days as risk caught a bid at the open in Europe, with the DAX leaving its peers behind to notch another record high at 17,470. London was higher too as the FTSE 100 tried to break 7,700 again and there were mild gains across the piece following a more tepid day for Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 index decline from its record highs by around 0.4%.

Asia has been a bit mixed, oil is trading sideways in a tight range around its 200-day SMA. Bitcoin rallied to a two-year high. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid cautioned about rushing to cut rates. Key U.S. and eurozone inflation data is due Thursday and Friday.

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RBNZ rate decision expected overnight

Today we look ahead to a batch-load of U.S. data — durable goods orders, Case-Shiller house prices, CB consumer confidence and inflation expectations. Overnight – look ahead to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As discussed last week, for the first time since May 2023, an increase in the official cash rate is a real possibility.

There are two questions we should ask ourselves: what is the likelihood the RBNZ sees fit to raise rates and, secondly, what might this mean for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and market expectations more widely? 

Does it matter what the Fed does next? Financial conditions are already loose, and the market is at an all-time high… How does the Fed cut into this?

The risks for investors are maybe growing – the top 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 account for 75% of the market – the greatest concentration since 1929…while the risks grow so perhaps do the rewards for the bravest … that seems to have been how things have played out until now anyway.

Bank of Japan expected to normalise monetary policy in April

Meanwhile, Japan's core consumer inflation slowed for a third month in January but topped expectations. Core CPI slid to 2.0% from 2.3% in December, but the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still expected to begin normalising policy in April. 

It’s still the base case but the more inflation slows the harder the BoJ will find it to move on time. The Japanese yen strengthened on the news, with USD/JPY slipping to its weakest since Thursday. MACD turning, break of the two-week trend.

EUR/USD maintained an upside bias after the bullish MACD, and the 21-day EMA held – 50-day SMA looking to provide the resistance – failure at this on Thursday has not dimmed the momentum so could retest.

Similar picture for GBP/USD, but lower intra-day highs give bulls pause for thought despite breach of the 50-day SMA and bullish MACD offering a good backdrop.

And finally – it's not a meme stock, it's cocoa, which has hit fresh record highs. Crop troubles for Ghana and Ivory Coast are getting worse.