Week Ahead: Top US data in focus, Hong Kong row to weigh on trade talks

US data to influence Fed outlook?

Top-tier US data this week could help shape expectations for the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. Markets don’t expect any changes, but now that the Fed has declared that further adjustments will hinge upon the latest data prints, the upcoming CB consumer confidence report on Tuesday and Wednesday’s second Q3 GDP reading, durable goods orders, and personal incoming and spending figures could influence the outlook for policy over the coming months.

Trade talks to falter on Hong Kong row?

A spat over new US legislation supporting Hong Kong independence and banning export of some crowd control munitions to Hong Kong authorities has become a major new hurdle in the race for a trade deal. China is sure to interpret the new bills as interfering in its affairs and it is therefore hard to see Beijing being willing to agree to US demands in order to prevent the scheduled tariff increases in December. Stocks took a beating last week and there could be more pain to come.

Germany and Eurozone inflation

Preliminary readings of German and Eurozone inflation are due on Thursday and Friday respectively. Price growth remains sluggish despite everything the European Central Bank has thrown at it. Even an uptick is unlikely to do much for sentiment on its own, although there could be some upside for EUR pairs – it won’t make an unwinding of stimulus happen any faster, but at least it’ll show things aren’t getting any worse.

Best Buy earnings

Best Buy reports earnings for the third quarter of its fiscal 2020 year before the opening bell on the 26th. Analysts expect EPS of $1.04, which represents an 11.8% year-on-year increase. Revenue is projected 1.5% higher year-on-year at $9.73 billion. The stock recently came close to reclaiming the 2019 high of 78.45 recorded in late July, but despite retreating from that level remains over 40% higher year-to-date.

Corporate diary

25 Nov – Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q4
26 Nov – Dell – Q3 2020
26 Nov – Dollar Tree – Q3
26 Nov – Best Buy – Q3 2020
26 Nov – Autodesk – Q3 2020
27 Nov – Xiaomi – Q3
27 Nov – British American Tobacco – Trading Update

Key economic events

(All times GMT)
25 Nov – 09.00 GMT – German Ifo Business Climate
26 Nov – 07.00 GMT – Germany GfK Consumer Confidence
26 Nov – 15.00 GMT – US Conference Board Consumer Confidence
27 Nov – 13.30 GMT – US GDP (2nd Estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income/Spending
28 Nov – 13.00 GMT – German Preliminary Inflation
29 Nov – 10.00 GMT – Eurozone Flash Inflation
29 Nov – 13.30 GMT – Canada GDP
30 Nov – 01.00 GMT – China NBS Manufacturing PMI