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Vlad to the rescue… Looks like Putin has just come in to call a (temporary) halt to the gas crisis in Europe, finally stepping in with comments that have offered some stability to the market after a tumultuous morning/week.

Putin says:

  • Boosting gas supplies to Europe
  • Ready to stabilise global energy market
  • Gazprom supplies to Europe to reach new record
  • Increasing gas transit via Ukraine & will exceed contractual obligations for gas via Ukraine.

Henry Hub Nat Gas prices were offered on the comments/headlines that Russia is ready to help out. The situation remains difficult of course but could be that Putin has just put a ceiling on these crazy market moves for the time being. There are other factors but a boost in supply from Russia would ease immediate concerns in Europe. Longer-term of course the lack of fossil fuel capex in response to high prices is a big driver of prices staying higher for longer. Winter is coming and supplies are still very short and markets volatile. Plus how long does Putin play nice?

Anyway, it seems to have calmed the market for the time being. One thing you have to take from all this is that Nord Stream 2 is surely going to be approved soon…Merkel stressing in comments just a few minutes ago that it is not yet ready.

Henry Hub prices tumbled off the highs to test $6 again on the news crossing the wires. UK prices have meanwhile completed a heck of a round trip with a daily gain of 40% reduced to 4%. Whilst US nat gas prices are not directly correlated to the situation in Europe we can see that the comments from Putin hit prices as they crossed the wires. Oil was also pulled down on the comments.

Natural gas chart 06.10.2021

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