With the US election just 20 days away on November 5, the crypto market is emerging as a significant beneficiary. Bitcoin, highlighted by both Presidential candidates in their speeches, is seeing a rapid Bitcoin price increase as election day approaches.

As of Thursday, October 17, Bitcoin had risen by 10.59 percent over the past week on foreign exchanges, according to CoinMarketCap. At that moment, BTC was priced at $67,413 (approximately ₹56.6 lakh) on international platforms. In contrast, on Indian exchanges like CoinSwitch and Giottus, the asset was trading at $68,958 (around ₹57.9 lakh).
 

Cryptocurrency investors are bracing for volatility

Analyzing the implied volatilities for BTC and ETH options reveals a noticeable spike near the U.S. election date, which aligns with the expected rise in overall volatility. Notably, the BTC Put/Call Skew indicates optimism across the board, as even longer-dated options (more than three months out) show a call premium over puts. This is surprising considering the presidential race is highly uncertain, suggesting that the market remains optimistic regardless of the election outcome.

Before President Biden withdrew from the race in July, Trump appeared to be the favorite in the crypto community. Following the failed assassination attempt on July 12, Bitcoin surged from $56,000 to $65,000, fueled by hopes that the former president would benefit from the situation. Trump's stance on crypto has evolved over the years; while he initially expressed skepticism, viewing it as a potential tool for illegal activities and competition against the dollar, he has since embraced the sector. Now, he aims for the U.S. to become a "bitcoin superpower" and the "crypto capital of the planet," even accepting Bitcoin donations for his campaign and promising to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a figure widely disliked by crypto advocates. This shift has garnered significant support from the crypto community.
 

Bitcoin sets for strong week

Bitcoin's price rose slightly on Thursday, positioning itself for strong weekly gains as speculation surrounding a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election drove prices higher. Earlier this week, the world's largest cryptocurrency reached its highest level since late July, although gains appeared to be stabilizing. By 00:59 ET (04:59 GMT), Bitcoin had increased by 0.7% to $67,733.1, having briefly surpassed $68,000 earlier. This week, it is up more than 7%, marking its best performance since early September.

Factors boosting Bitcoin include heightened speculation about Trump’s success and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's promise to establish a regulatory framework for crypto. Additionally, sentiment was lifted by Mt. Gox extending its timeline for returning tokens to creditors by a year, alleviating fears of significant selling pressure. Capital inflows into crypto investment products also showed improvement over the past week.
 

Conclusion:

While many believe that a Trump presidency would be more advantageous for the crypto industry, the options market reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook amid the uncertain election results. With around 40% of American adults owning crypto, it appears that neither candidate can afford to overlook the calls for a fair regulatory environment. Whether they will follow through on their electoral promises remains to be seen. However, the data and public discussions highlight the industry's evolution over recent years, transforming from a libertarian niche into a powerful entity with substantial lobbying influence.