Central banks’ interest rate decisions are behind us, now it’s the turn of the inflation data. US core PCE inflation data will be the big event of the week as markets continue to react to last week’s Fed decision and other central bank calls.
Japanese and Australian inflation figures are also due up after their respective central banks met last week. We also have some useful US economic data – GDP and durable goods for instance.
Stocks are flat this morning. Nothing doing. The FTSE 100 index trades north of 7,900 having finally broken higher to catch up with its peers after its best week in a while saw it come close to the all-time high. Maybe it’s the end of the tax year. Oil has come off its roughly 4-month high.
US stocks rose 2-3% last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average having its best week since December.
As repeated last week, there is a clear sense that central banks are now very much onside for risk. They won’t stretch for that last mile. And even the Bank of Japan is not really tightening.
Gold trades sideways as it has for the best part of almost three weeks.
GBP/USD trades a bit firmer after hitting a one-month low, the 200-day line holding.
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Several key economic releases are scheduled for the week of 4 – 8 August 2025. On Monday, 4 August at 0630 GMT, Switzerland will release its CPI m/m data, with June showing a +0.2% rise and July expected to remain steady.
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