Russia stated on Monday that its military is analyzing whether the United States will provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, a move Russian officials say could trigger a major escalation. JD Vance revealed on Sunday that the U.S. government is considering Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk missiles.

Tomahawk Missile Range and Potential Impact

The Tomahawk missile has a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles), sufficient to hit Moscow and most of European Russia if launched from Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned Kremlin officials last week that they “should know where the bomb shelters are.”

In-Depth Russian Analysis of Potential Scenarios

It is not yet known how the U.S. would supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, or through which countries. Zelenskyy has asked the U.S. to sell the missiles to European countries, which would then transfer them to Ukraine. This is what Russia is seeking to analyze in depth, in addition to determining who will launch these missiles and determine the targets, whether they are Ukrainians or Americans.

Russian Warnings of Dire Consequences

The Kremlin sees U.S. involvement – namely, providing such missiles for strikes deep inside Russia – as fraught with escalation risk. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about Vance’s comments: “The key question is: who will fire these missiles? Will it be only Ukrainians, or will it require U.S. soldiers to operate them?” “Who will decide the targets for these missiles? Will it be the American side or Ukraine itself?” Peskov added. “This requires very deep analysis.” Putin has warned countries “allowing Ukraine to use their missiles to strike Russia” that Russia reserves the right to strike military facilities on their territory. Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma’s defense committee, told domestic media that any U.S. military experts helping Ukraine launch Tomahawk missiles at Russia would become targets for Russian forces.

Assessing the Potential Strategic Impact

“No one will protect them, not Trump, Kellogg, or anyone else,” he said. Keith Kellogg said on Sunday that Trump has indicated that Ukraine should now be given the ability to carry out long-range strikes against Russia. “With long-range strike capabilities, there is no such thing as a ‘safe zone,’” Kellogg told Fox News.

Kremlin Dismisses Tomahawk Impact

However, Kremlin spokesman Peskov also said on Monday that even the use of Tomahawk missiles by Ukraine would not change the course of the war. “Even if this happens, there are no ‘magic bullets’ that can change the situation at the front for the Kyiv regime … whether it is Tomahawk missiles or other missiles, it will not reverse the current situation,” Peskov said, referring to the slow but steady advance of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, the introduction of such advanced weaponry could unintentionally lead to unintended targets being hit, further escalating the conflict.

Geopolitical Risks and Impact on Europe

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that Europe “simply cannot afford a war with Russia,” but “the possibility of fatal accidents always exists.” This statement reflects Russian fears that the escalation in Ukraine could lead to a wider war involving other European countries, a catastrophic scenario by all accounts. In short, providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles represents a risky step that could lead to a dangerous escalation of the ongoing conflict, with dire consequences for regional and international security. The Russian analysis of this step focuses on assessing potential risks and determining how to respond to them, while emphasizing that Russia will not allow its national security to be threatened.