Russia Deploys 9M729 Missile: A Closer Look

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has confirmed that Russia has in recent months used land-based 9M729 missiles in attacks on Ukraine. The clandestine development of this missile was a key reason for President Trump's withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and Russia during his first term. This is the first official confirmation of Russia's use of this cruise missile in actual combat, whether in Ukraine or elsewhere.

A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that Russia had launched 23 of these missiles at Ukraine since August of this year, in addition to two launches of the missile being recorded in 2022. The Russian Defense Ministry has not immediately responded to related inquiries.

Missile Performance Sparks Controversy

The development and deployment of the 9M729 missile has long been a subject of controversy, and this particular weapon is what led the United States to withdraw from the INF Treaty in 2019. The treaty explicitly prohibits the two countries from possessing, producing, or testing ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.

The United States has accused the 9M729 missile of exceeding the 500-kilometer range, which violates the terms of the treaty, while Russia insists that its declared maximum range of 475 kilometers does not violate the treaty.

According to the "Missile Threat" website of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the 9M729 missile can carry nuclear or conventional warheads, and its actual range can reach 2,500 kilometers.

Attack Details and Debris Confirmation

Military sources revealed that a 9M729 missile launched by Russia on October 5 traveled more than 1,200 kilometers before hitting a target in Ukraine. Reuters verified images of debris from an attack on the Ukrainian village of Rapaivka that day and found missile fragments bearing the 9M729 marking, including launch tubes containing cables. Jeffrey Lewis, a distinguished scholar in global security at Middlebury College, and his team confirmed after analysis that the structural characteristics of the debris were highly consistent with the 9M729 missile. The attack caused the destruction of a residential building and killed 4 people, and the village is located more than 600 kilometers from Russian territory.

Tactical Advantages and Capabilities

This missile has unique tactical advantages: its radar-matching guidance system can control the error to within 2 meters, achieving precision strikes. It can be equipped with various types of warheads, including thermobaric warheads and electromagnetic pulse warheads, which can directly paralyze anti-aircraft radar systems. It is usually mounted with the 9M728 missile in a multi-launch system, becoming an important part of the Russian military's long-range strike system.

Escalation of Geopolitical and European Security Risks

Sybiha pointed out in a written statement that Russia's use of this missile, which is prohibited by the INF Treaty, demonstrates Putin's disregard for the United States' and Trump's diplomatic efforts to promote peace in Ukraine.

He emphasized that Kyiv supports Trump's peace proposal, calling for maximum pressure to be exerted on Russia, and urging the United States to provide long-range "Tomahawk" missiles to enhance Ukraine's retaliatory capabilities - missiles that were not prohibited by the INF Treaty at the time because they were at the time only launched from the sea, but Russia has warned that such a move would lead to a dangerous escalation of the conflict.

Western military analysts believe that Russia's use of the 9M729 missile while Trump is seeking a peaceful solution is both an addition to Ukraine's long-range strike capability and a warning signal to Europe.

William Alberque, a senior research fellow at the Pacific Forum, pointed out that the missile was originally designed to strike European targets, and Putin intends to use it to increase bargaining chips on the Ukraine issue.

John Foreman, a former British defense attaché in Moscow and Kyiv, warned that if Russia uses medium-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads on the Ukrainian battlefield, it will no longer be just a Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but a major threat to the security of the entire Europe.

Nuclear Arms Race

It is worth noting that Russia has recently carried out an intensive series of new nuclear weapons tests: last week it tested the nuclear-powered "Burevestnik" cruise missile, and on Wednesday it announced that it had successfully tested the "Poseidon" nuclear-powered torpedo.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration on Thursday ordered the U.S. military to resume nuclear testing, citing "testing plans from other countries". This series of actions has further increased the tension in the global nuclear security system.

Military Expansion After Treaty Expiration

After the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, Russia announced that it would suspend the deployment of medium-range missiles, but the West has always believed that Russia has already deployed some 9M729 missiles. On August 4 of this year, Russia announced that it would no longer restrict the scope of deployment of medium-range missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. The first missile attack confirmed by Ukrainian officials occurred on August 21 - less than a week before the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin.

Douglas Barrie, a senior research fellow in military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analyzed that the 9M729 land-based missile launchers have high mobility and concealment, allowing Russia to launch attacks from safe areas deep within its territory, which poses a new challenge to Ukrainian air defense systems. Barrie also said that Russia could also use this to test the system in the Ukrainian environment, but the usage rate of 23 times suggests that it focuses more on military operations.

In addition, analyses have shown that some of the 9M729 missiles launched by the Russian military may not have been equipped with explosives, but were instead equipped with telemetry equipment or heavy decoys. This practice combined testing and strategic deterrence purposes, and the unique delivery pattern of the multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads has aroused widespread speculation about the technical details of this missile.