Iran and Europe Back to the Negotiating Table

Iran has agreed to restart nuclear talks with three major European powers – Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The talks, at the level of deputy foreign ministers, are scheduled to take place in Istanbul this week, in an attempt to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal. Local media reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi spoke by phone with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Germany last week, signaling a willingness from all parties to engage in serious negotiations.

A Complex Geopolitical Backdrop

This development follows a series of serious escalations, including a 12-day war between Iran and Israel, during which there were reports of large-scale attacks on critical Iranian nuclear facilities. The resumption of talks could potentially open the door to a broader thawing of relations between Tehran and the West. Araqchi previously emphasized that Tehran's position in nuclear negotiations was "firmer than ever."

Suspension of Cooperation with IAEA

In the wake of airstrikes attributed to the US and Israel, Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), leading to the withdrawal of agency inspectors. This further complicates efforts to verify the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program.

European Threat of 'Snapback Mechanism'

The talks come amid recent reports that major European powers threatened to trigger the so-called "snapback mechanism" to reimpose sanctions that were eased under the 2015 deal if Iran did not restart negotiations.

Iranian Conditions for Talks with the US

Iranian state media reported earlier this month that Araqchi said Iran was willing to restart nuclear talks with the United States if it received guarantees of "not being attacked again." Speaking to foreign diplomats in Tehran, Araqchi said that Iran was and will always be ready to have a dialogue on its nuclear program, but "there must be a guarantee that the resumption of negotiations will not lead to war."

Insistence on Uranium Enrichment

He reiterated his position that uranium enrichment must be allowed inside Iran – something that former US President Donald Trump insisted would never happen.

Israeli Claims of Approaching Nuclear Bomb

Israel claimed that the reason for its attack on Iran last month was that Tehran was close to possessing a nuclear bomb. US intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assess that Iran's last organized nuclear weapons program ended in 2003, but Tehran has enriched uranium to 60% – just one step away from the 90% needed to make weapons (technically).

Conflicting Reports on Damage from Attacks

The US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities have sparked controversy, and the exact impact remains in doubt. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on July 7 that the US attacks caused serious damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, but relevant departments have not yet been able to enter the facilities to assess the damage.

Trump Insists on Nuclear Facilities' Destruction

Trump wrote on "Truth Social" last Saturday: "Iran's three nuclear facilities have all been completely destroyed or damaged, and it will take years to restore them to operation. If Iran wants to do this, it makes more sense to start over in three new locations rather than repair the destroyed old sites – if they really decide to do it."

Iranian Threats to Withdraw from NPT

On the same day that Trump made his remarks, Ibrahim Rezaei, the official spokesman for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, threatened that Iran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and raise the level of uranium enrichment to more than 60% if Washington continued to increase sanctions on Tehran.

Mixed Reactions to US Intelligence Assessments

Trump's statement at the weekend appeared to be mainly aimed at a new US intelligence assessment revealed in media reports last Thursday – which stated that most of Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment facility had been destroyed in the June 21 attack, but the other two main facilities in Natanz and Isfahan had not been severely damaged. The White House and the Department of Defense continue to support Trump's position and tend to downplay the significance of this assessment, saying that it is just a partial and unverified opinion from one intelligence source. "The credibility of the fake news media is similar to the current state of Iranian nuclear facilities: they have been destroyed, turned to dust, and will take years to restore," Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement. He added: "President Trump has made it clear, and the American people understand: Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz have been completely and utterly destroyed."

Is Iran Considering Nuclear Weapons?

The financial blog Zero Hedge comments that even if Tehran was not seeking nuclear weapons before, it is likely seriously considering the matter now after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. At the same time, the Iranians realize that there is no possibility of negotiating with the West, because they were holding "good faith" talks with the United States when Israel launched its attack.