Gemini Eyes Prediction Market Entry

Gemini Space Station Inc. is reportedly preparing to enter the prediction markets arena, mirroring recent moves by Coinbase and MetaMask, according to a Bloomberg report. Gemini aims to enter the space “as soon as possible.”

Seeking Derivatives Exchange License

Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, noted Gemini's filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a derivatives exchange. Executives have reportedly discussed utilizing this license to facilitate trading in event contracts, allowing users to speculate on the outcomes of real-world events.

Gemini's Public Offering

This development follows the public listing of Gemini by co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss in September, which raised $433 million in an upsized initial public offering, valuing the company at $4.4 billion.

Surge in Trading Volumes on Prediction Platforms

Prediction platform Kalshi has experienced record-breaking trading volumes almost weekly since mid-October, with a recent $1.2 billion traded between October 27th and November 2nd. This surpassed the previous record of approximately $1.01 billion the preceding week. Kalshi’s primary competitor, Polymarket, has also previously exceeded $1 billion in weekly trading volume.

Increasing Platform Integrations

Gemini joins a growing list of entities like MetaMask, Coinbase, DraftKings, and Sam Altman’s Worldcoin, which have recently integrated, or are planning to integrate, prediction markets. Furthermore, Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, made a $2 billion investment in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. Kalshi has also secured a multi-billion dollar valuation.