Despite some investors perceiving the Federal Reserve's September decision as less dovish than anticipated, US stock market investors seem ready to seize the opportunity presented by Wednesday's slight pullback. This upward momentum stems, in part, from the market's reinterpretation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement that a "25-basis point rate cut is risk management." While some interpreted this as signaling a "precautionary rate cut with limited room for further reductions," institutions like Goldman Sachs countered, arguing that Powell's statement actually implied the inevitability of an October rate cut. JPMorgan Chase's trading team, in their analysis that day, unequivocally advised investors to "buy the dip," predicting that the US stock market could experience an "explosive upside" moment. The team, led by Andrew Tyler, pointed out that the Fed's rate cut aligned with their expectation of a "dovish rate cut" and that they still anticipate two more rate cuts this year. "These precautionary rate cuts provide support for the longs, especially against the backdrop of Tuesday's better-than-expected retail sales data," they emphasized in their report. ## Economic Data and Earnings Driving the Market The Tyler team anchors the core driver of future stock market gains to two key data points: the September non-farm payroll report released on October 3rd, and the inflation data for the same month released on October 15th. If the jobs data rebounds after two consecutive months of weakness, and inflation remains "contained," coupled with a strong Q3 earnings season (primarily concentrated in the third week of October), the US stock market could experience a "breakout rally." "For those expecting the S&P 500 to break 7,000 by year-end, this would be a crucial first step," they stated directly in their report. Notably, the current S&P 500 index is only about 4% away from the 7,000 level. JPMorgan Chase predicts that if the data meets expectations, the upward momentum in the stock market will spread from technology stocks to the entire market, and a stronger dollar will indirectly boost international markets, especially emerging market assets. Despite Powell's language at the press conference being interpreted as "hawkish leaning," the Tyler team emphasized: "The press conference will not change our core view – any pullback is a buying opportunity, although the market may experience a technical correction at month-end/quarter-end." ## Seasonal Volatility and Market Dynamics JPMorgan Chase's bullish stance contrasts sharply with market concerns about the "September curse." Historically, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1.17% decline in September, but this year the index has bucked the trend, rising 2.17%, its best monthly performance since July 2025. This discrepancy has sparked a market question of "Where did the shorts go?" Analysis suggests that the buy-the-dip behavior of retail investors during the market sell-offs in April (which proved to be very prescient) may have altered traditional seasonal patterns. Furthermore, while institutions like JPMorgan Chase have repeatedly warned that "September-October is the most vulnerable period for the US stock market," they also emphasized that corporate earnings resilience and policy easing expectations will dominate market trends. "Current concerns about over-crowded market positioning are exaggerated, and earnings surprises in the Q3 earnings season may be the key to breaking the deadlock," the Tyler team concluded. This ongoing battle surrounding Federal Reserve policy expectations, economic data, and the earnings cycle is reshaping investors' risk preferences. While the market is still debating the true meaning of Powell's statement on "risk management rate cuts," JPMorgan Chase emphasizes that under the narrative of a soft landing for the economy, any sharp decline is an opportunity.