Monday Jan 22 2024 09:45
4 min
Electric vehicle and clean energy firm Tesla is poised to provide investors with insights into its future plans next week, and one analyst believes that Wall Street should prepare for "growing pains”.
Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan anticipates approximately 13% growth in Tesla deliveries next year, falling short of the company's 50% long-term target. The electric-vehicle company has faced challenges at the beginning of the year, including price cuts in China and a production pause in Germany.
In a note to clients cited by MarketWatch on Tuesday, Langan wrote:
“There are also macroeconomic headwinds around elevated interest rates
& flattening EV adoption. Additionally, there are signs of moderating growth in all three key regions.”
Tesla is set to disclose more details about its current situation and the outlook for the year during its upcoming earnings report next Wednesday. While Langan expresses general caution about automotive earnings for the latest quarter, he says Tesla “screens the most at risk”.
Investors will closely scrutinize Tesla's profitability, with Langan suggesting that the impact of price reductions will outweigh the boost from higher volumes in the last quarter. He projects a 15.4% gross margin for the period, which is below the 17% consensus estimate on VisibleAlpha. FactSet lists a 16.7% consensus estimate.
Langan is particularly interested in understanding how higher leasing rates in the U.S. will impact profits, considering that leases could qualify for IRA 45W credits related to the Inflation Reduction Act. He added:
“Profits on leased vehicles are realized over the lease life, rather than up front like a normal sale.”
Langan lowered his price target on Tesla shares from $250 to $223, citing his anticipation of reduced long-term growth.
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Analyst Dan Levy at UK investment bank Barclays lowered the price target for TSLA stock from $260 to $250 and maintains an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
Levy believes that Tesla is likely to experience volume pressure in 2024 within a demand-constrained environment — a departure from its historical reliance on production capacity. The analyst also sees a shift in investor focus toward long-term volume expectations due to this change.
Barclays forecasted Tesla delivering 1.97 million units in 2024, falling short of the consensus at 2.19 million units and marking “only” 9% year-over-year growth in deliveries.
There is also speculation about the potential for a less favorable 2024 volume guide, possibly around 2 million units. However, the firm suggests that CEO Elon Musk could generate interest by hinting at the potential for 2.2 million to 2.4 million units during the earnings call, contingent on a more supportive macro and rate environment.
According to 29 analysts surveyed by TipRanks that offered 12-month Tesla stock price targets, the consensus forecast for TSLA last stood at $203.35 — a potential 9.57% upside from its current price as of January 19, 2024.
The highest listed Tesla share price forecast on TipRanks was $380.00, while the lowest was listed at $85.00. Of the 29 analysts surveyed, 11 offered a Buy rating on TSLA stock, while 13 had it as a Hold, and 5 gave it a Sell rating.
The company has so far outpaced the benchmark S&P 500 index, which gained 20% since January 2023, but TSLA’s trajectory this year may not be as clear.
At the time of writing on Friday, Tesla shares dipped by close to 0.8% in premarket trading at $210.17, after closing at $211.88 (down 1.70%) the previous day. Tesla stock has gained 58% over the past year but has lost 15% of its value in the first weeks of 2024.
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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
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