Deliveroo shares climb, UK equities catch a bid

Deliveroo shares edged higher at the start of unrestricted trading as investors shrugged off the stock’s dreadful start to life as a public company. There were fears the 70,000 retail customers who had participated in the float would take the opportunity to offload, but investors are holding the line for the time being. Having tumbled 26% on day one, the first day of unrestricted trading saw the stock climb 3% to £2.88. I’m not sure if this is a vote of confidence or a case of averaging in, but it’s no doubt a big relief to management and the bankers involved that the retail army has not routed at the first sound of gunfire. Given the wipe-out that has already taken place, I think a lot of investors will simply think that it cannot go any lower and it’s worth holding on for a better price. Cutting losers is harder than letting winners run. It comes as hundreds of Deliveroo riders prepare to strike over pay and conditions. The walkout underlines the regulatory risk attached to the stock and the implied impact any Uber-like ruling could have on margins.  

 

European stock markets are tentatively higher after a flat session on Wall Street, with the major US indices pulling back slightly from record highs. UK equities are leading the way this morning: The FTSE 100 rose 0.9% in the early part of the session to trade at its highest since the start of the year – 6,900 looks to be on. I’d still be confident that the discount in UK equities combined with a solid domestic and global outlook supports the investment thesis and the blue chips could be eyeing a pre-pandemic 7,700 by the end of the year. The FTSE 250 rose another 0.6% to trade above 22,129 and mark a new record intraday high. The mid-cap index is now up 8% since the start of the year and is on track to reflect the UK’s economic bounce back from the pandemic. UK domestic stocks have been buoyed by the rapid rollout of vaccines – Moderna starts this week, adding to the positivity – and the implied resurgence in economic activity. And as I pointed out in my preview to 2021, UK equities were set to catch up as they entered 2021 trading at a large discount to European and US peers, but have yet to really achieve their full potential.  

 

FOMC minutes tonight will be one to watch. The minutes could help explain how the Fed plans to communicate future policy decisions and shed light on how some policymakers could change their view on monetary policy if inflation and growth does accelerate as expected this summer. Whilst Jay Powell has kept market speculation at bay, the minutes could allow participants to focus on when the Fed will tighten. As detailed after the meeting statement, it looks as though the Fed is happy to let the economy run hot and won’t intervene to cool it down. Even with growth in excess of 6.5% this year, 3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023; it still sees no need to tighten policy within the next almost three years. This reflects what we know already about the Fed’s view on employment and inflation and the new outcome-based regime focused on absolute employment levels, not on the Philip’s Curve. It also doesn’t really think the sharp bounce back this year is sustainable, meaning now is not the time to remove the punchbowl. US 10-year yields have retreated to under 1.64% – given the pullback from the recent highs there is a risk the market sees something in the minutes which signals it could tighten policy sooner than it is currently guiding. 

 

Crude oil tried to pick up yesterday as the IMF raised its global growth forecasts and the API said inventories declined by 2.6m barrels last week. But the market remains sceptical for the time being about the demand recovery that OPEC is expecting and has used to justify pumping more barrels from May. OPEC+ have really taken a gamble on oil demand bouncing back this summer. The decision by the cartel and its allies to ease self-imposed production curbs helped push prices sharply lower on Monday but a softer dollar and stronger US and Chinese economic data, combined with the IMF forecasts, had eased the selling pressure yesterday. WTI bounced off lows a little under $58, though short of the key support at $57.40, but the rally fizzled at the $61 resistance. EIA figures today are expected to show a decline of 2m barrels. Last week’s inventory data showed American refiners processed the most oil since the start of the pandemic as US travel markers improve.

Volgende week: OPEC-bijeenkomst & publicatie FOMC-notulen

In de eerste week van het nieuwe jaar kijken we naar enkele stevige onderwerpen. Voor OPEC+ begint de eerste van de nieuwe maandelijkse ministeriële bijeenkomsten voor het nieuwe jaar op 4 januari, als producenten het geleidelijk afbouwen van productiebeperkingen bespreken.

De FOMC komt met zijn laatste notulen – zullen die een routekaart zijn voor economisch herstel in de VS? En, de niet-agrarische loonlijsten worden gepubliceerd. Die kunnen tekenen van kracht laten zien op de Amerikaanse banenmarkt.

OPEC-bijeenkomst 

De eerste van een serie nieuwe maandelijkse bijeenkomsten van OPEC en niet-OPEC-ministers gaat volgende week van start, nadat in december was besloten om het afbouwen van de productiebeperkingen te vertragen om de prijzen te ondersteunen.

Dit is de maand waarin de OPEC-leden en hun bondgenoten de teugels iets vieren en de productie zullen verhogen. OPEC+ heeft groen licht gegeven voor het oppompen van 500.000 extra vaten per dag (bpd) van januari tot in ieder geval maart. De totale productiebeperking voor januari zal 7,2 miljoen bpd zijn, terwijl dat in het laatste deel van 2020 7,7 miljoen bpd was.

De verwachte vraag verbeterde echter niet, ondanks de komst van vaccins, dus de druk op de OPEC om de situatie nauwlettend te volgen zal hoog blijven. De OPEC verwacht nu dat de wereldwijde daling van de vraag naar olie voor 2020 9,77 miljoen vaten per dag zal zijn en uitkomt op 89,99 miljoen bpd, vergeleken met 90 miljoen bpd in de schattingen van november.

De verwachte olievraag voor 2021 is nu 95,89 miljoen bpd. Dat is een daling van 410.000 ten opzichte van de oorspronkelijke OPEC-projecties die gepubliceerd werden in het maandrapport van november. In oktober schatte de OPEC de olievraag voor 2021 op 96,8 miljoen bpd.

Om een balans te bereiken tussen prijs, vraag en productie, is het essentieel dat lidstaten en bondgenoten zich aan de afspraken houden. Er heerste al wat onenigheid in de gelederen en Saudi-Arabië dreigde bijvoorbeeld zijn voorzittersrol op te geven. Sommige producenten binnen de invloedssfeer van de OPEC houden onwrikbaar vast aan hun eigen productiedoelen, los van beperkingen en stops.

Libië gaf eerder aan zijn olieproductie te willen verhogen en stelde geen productiequota te zullen accepteren, voordat zijn productie 1,7 miljoen bpd heeft bereikt – momenteel is dat 1,108 miljoen bpd.

Iran heeft ook aangegeven de olieproductie te zullen verhogen naar 2,3 miljoen bpd in 2021, ten opzichte van 1,986 miljoen bpd nu.

Notulen FOMC-vergadering 

Notulen van de laatste Fed-bijeenkomst komen eraan – en geven een duidelijker indicatie van mogelijke verdeeldheid over de mate waarin de FOMC het nodig acht de rentevoet voor langlopende leningen te verankeren en of verdere beleidssteun vereist is. De vraag voor de Fed lijkt in de richting te gaan van de reflatiehandel en stijgende rentetarieven voor langlopende leningen.

Een hogere inflatieverwachting kan een probleem zijn voor de Fed, omdat die zich dan mogelijk eerder dan verwacht gedwongen ziet tot verkrapping. Hoewel de gemiddelde inflatiedoelen wat speelruimte geven, moeten we goed opletten of individuele beleidsmakers zich zorgen gaan maken over de inflatie en de behoefte aan meer beperkingen in het monetair beleid.

Werkgelegenheid buiten de landbouwsector 

Het banenrapport van december sluit de week af op vrijdag met een groeiend aantal covid-19-gevallen in de VS die waarschijnlijk de vraag zullen drukken, al moeten we extra seizoenswerkgelegenheid niet vergeten. In november kwamen er nog eens 245.000 banen bij in de Amerikaanse economie, terwijl het werkloosheidspercentage daalde naar 6,7%. Dit was ruim onder de prestaties van de afgelopen 6 maanden en wijst op een vertraging in banengroei, terwijl het aantal covid-gevallen in het land groeit.

De markten lijken echter een langzamer herstel van de arbeidsmarkt grotendeels door de vingers te willen zien dankzij de vaccins – het decemberrapport kijkt achterom en reflecteert stijgende aantallen en nieuwe lockdowns in diverse staten. Sterker nog, langzamere banengroei onderstreept de behoefte aan langdurige monetaire en fiscale stimulansen – we zitten in een slecht nieuws is goed nieuws-fase.

Runoff-verkiezing in Georgia 

Kiezers gaan op 5 januari naar de stembus voor de runoff in Georgia; deze verkiezing bepaalt wie de controle krijgt in de Senaat in de eerste twee jaren van het presidentschap van Joe Biden.

Dit is uitermate belangrijk, omdat een blauwe Senaat betekent dat Biden zijn agenda – die zich richt op groene energie en investeringen – eenvoudiger kan uitvoeren. Er is echter een redelijke kans op een kleine Republikeinse meerderheid, ondanks de kleine Democratische winst bij de presidentsverkiezingen in november, wat minder regelgevende en belastingdruk zou betekenen.

Outlook 2021 webinar 

Dinsdag 5 januari, 12.00 GMT (11.00 CET) 

Wilt u weten wat de belangrijkste marktonderwerpen zijn in het nieuwe jaar? We stellen de grote vragen in dit webinar: Is inflatie een blaffende hond die uiteindelijk bijt? Zal de aandelenmarkt in het VK weer op stoom komen? Zullen vaccins een reflatoire terugkeer naar normaal in gang zetten? Hoofdmarktanalist Neil Wilson geeft antwoord op deze belangrijke vragen in onze 2021 Outlook, en u kunt erbij zijn.

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Belangrijke economische data deze week

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Mon Jan 4th  9.00am  EUR  Final Manufacturing PMI 
       
  9.30am  GBP  Final Manufacturing PMI 
       
  All Day  All  OPEC-JMMC Meeting 
       
  2.30pm  CAD  Manufacturing PMI 
       
  3.00pm  USD  ISM Manufacturing PMI 
       
Tue Jan 5th  9.30am  GBP  Construction PMI 
       
Wed Jan 6th  9.00am  EUR  Final Services PMI 
       
  9.30am  GBP  Final Services PMI 
       
  1.15pm  USD  ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 
       
  3.00pm  USD  ISM Services PMI 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
  7.00pm  USD  FOMC Meeting Minutes 
       
Thu Jan 7th  10.00am  EUR  CPI Flash Estimate 
       
  10.00am  EUR  Core CPI Flash Estimate 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment Changes 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri Jan 8th  1.30am  CNH  CPI y/y 
       
  1.30am  CNH  PPI y/y 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  Employment Change 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  Unemployment Rate 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Average Hourly Earnings m/m 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Nonfarm Employment Change 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment Rate 
       
  3.00pm  CAD  Ivey PMI 

 

Belangrijke cijfers deze week

Date  Company  Event 
Mon Jan 4th  State Street Corp.  Q4 2021 Earnings 
     
Wed Jan 6th  RPM International  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Thu Jan 7th  Micron Technology  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
  Constellation Brands  Q3 2021 Earnings 
     
  Walgreens Boots Alliance  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
  ConAgra Foods  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
  Lamb Weston Holdings  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Fri Jan 8th  Tata Consultancy Services  Q3 2021 Earnings 

Week Ahead: OPEC meets & FOMC releases minutes

In our first week ahead of the year, we’re checking out some particularly meaty topics. OPEC+ begins the first of this year’s new monthly ministerial meetings on Jan 4th as producers discuss gradually unwinding production cuts.  

The FOMC releases its latest meeting minutes – will they be a roadmap for US economic recovery? Plus, US nonfarm payrolls are released, which could show signs of strength in the United States’ job market. 

OPEC meeting 

The first of a new series of monthly meetings of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers kicks of this week, following on from December’s decision to delay the process of tapering production cuts agreed last year to prop up prices. 

This is the month where OPEC members plus allies will ease the stoppers slightly and increase production. OPEC+ has given the greenlight to pump an extra 500,000bpd from January until at least March. The total production cut for January will be 7.2m bpd compared to the 7.7m bpd cut in the latter part of 2020. 

However, demand expectations have failed to improve despite vaccines so pressure will remain on OPEC to monitor the situation closely. OPEC now expects global oil demand to have fallen to 9.77 million barrels per day in 2020 to reach 89.99m bpd, compared to over 90m bpd in its November estimations.  

2021 oil demand is now forecast at 95.89m bpd. That’s down 410,000 from the original OPEC projections published in the November MOMR. In October, OPEC had estimated 2021 oil demand to be 96.8m bpd. 

One key aspect of balancing price vs demand vs production will be member and ally compliance. There has already been a bit of dissention within the ranks, with likes of Saudi Arabia considering giving up its chairman position, for instance. Some producers within OPEC’s sphere of influence are steadfastly sticking to their own production targets, regardless of limits and stops. 

Libya has voiced its plans to increase its oil production and has previously stated that it will not accept any production quota until such a point where it can reliably produce 1.7 million bpd—compared to its current 1.108 million bpd. 

Iran, too, has promised to increase its oil production to 2.3 million bpd in 2021, up from 1.986 million bpd now. 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

Minutes from the latest Fed meeting are on tap – giving a clearer indication of possible dissension over the extent to which the FOMC feels it needs to anchor long-term rates and whether further policy support is required. The question for the Fed is starting to pivot towards the reflation trade and rising long-term rates. 

Rising inflation expectations may be a problem for the Fed as it could force it into tightening sooner than previously expected. Whilst average inflation targeting gives it some leeway, we’ll be paying close to attention to whether individual policymakers are starting to fret over inflation and the need for more restraint in monetary policy.  

Nonfarm Payrolls 

The December jobs report caps off the week on Friday with surging Covid cases in the US likely to weigh on demand, albeit seasonal hiring will be a factor to considerIn November, a further 245,000 jobs were added to the US economy, whilst the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7%. This was well below the run rate of the last 6 months and indicated a slowing in hiring as case counts rose across the country. 

However, markets seem to be largely happy to overlook a softer pace of recovery in the jobs market though thanks to vaccines – December’s report is backwards-looking and will reflect surging case numbers and new lockdown restrictions across multiple states. Moreover, soft jobs numbers only underline the need for sustained monetary and fiscal stimulus – we’re in a bad news is good news phase. 

Georgia Runoffs 

Voters will go to the polls for the Georgia Runoffs on January 5th in an election that will decide control of the Senate for the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency. 

This will be exceptionally important, as a Blue Senate should mean easier passage of Biden’s agenda, which is pointed towards green energy and investment. However, the chances of a slim Republican majority seem pretty gooddespite November’s slim Democrat victory in the presidential elections, which would mean less regulatory and tax overhang. 

Outlook 2021 webinar 

Tuesday 5th January, 12.00 GMT 

Want to know what the key market topics will be in the new year? We’re asking the big questions with this webinar: Will inflation be the dog that finally barks? Will the UK stock market finally catch up? Will vaccines spur a reflationary return to normal environment? Join chief market analyst Neil Wilson to get the answers to the big questions in our 2021 Outlook. 

Sign up 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Mon Jan 4th  9.00am  EUR  Final Manufacturing PMI 
       
  9.30am  GBP  Final Manufacturing PMI 
       
  All Day  All  OPEC-JMMC Meeting 
       
  2.30pm  CAD  Manufacturing PMI 
       
  3.00pm  USD  ISM Manufacturing PMI 
       
Tue Jan 5th  9.30am  GBP  Construction PMI 
       
Wed Jan 6th  9.00am  EUR  Final Services PMI 
       
  9.30am  GBP  Final Services PMI 
       
  1.15pm  USD  ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 
       
  3.00pm  USD  ISM Services PMI 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
  7.00pm  USD  FOMC Meeting Minutes 
       
Thu Jan 7th  10.00am  EUR  CPI Flash Estimate 
       
  10.00am  EUR  Core CPI Flash Estimate 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment Changes 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri Jan 8th  1.30am  CNH  CPI y/y 
       
  1.30am  CNH  PPI y/y 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  Employment Change 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  Unemployment Rate 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Average Hourly Earnings m/m 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Nonfarm Employment Change 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment Rate 
       
  3.00pm  CAD  Ivey PMI 

 

Key earnings data 

Date  Company  Event 
Mon Jan 4th  State Street Corp.  Q4 2021 Earnings 
     
Wed Jan 6th  RPM International  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Thu Jan 7th  Micron Technology  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
  Constellation Brands  Q3 2021 Earnings 
     
  Walgreens Boots Alliance  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
  ConAgra Foods  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
  Lamb Weston Holdings  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Fri Jan 8th  Tata Consultancy Services  Q3 2021 Earnings 

Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs

We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked. 

We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about. 

Japan Q1 GDP estimate 

Preliminary Q1 GDP data for Japan is due early on Monday, but as with all Q1 growth data it will serve as the prelude to something much worse. The economy is expected to have contracted -1.2% on the quarter, after a -1.8% decline in the final three months of 2019. Annualised growth is expected to print at -4.6%, again a slowdown from the -7.1% drop recorded in 2019 Q4. 

Forecasts for Q2 expect a 22% decline, the worst since the end of the Second World War. Will the Q1 figures give us any indication of how accurate those estimates might be, or will markets ignore the data and wait for more clarity? 

How many UK jobs have been lost in lockdown? 

The UK reports jobless claims data for April, when the workforce suffered an entire month of lockdown. The number of people filing jobless claims grew by over 12,000 in March: April’s figure is likely to print around 650,000. Unemployment rate figures are also scheduled, but these cover March and so are extremely backwards-looking by this point. A little later on Tuesday morning, the Labour Productivity Index for the first quarter is expected to print at -2.6%. 

UK inflation set to collapse 

April UK inflation data will feel the impact of collapsing retail sales, shuttered businesses, climbing unemployment and furloughed workers. Annualised price growth is expected to slump from 1.5% in May to 0.2% last month, with prices predicted to shrink -0.7% on the month after stagnating in April. The core inflation rate is predicted to drop to 1% on an annualised basis and -0.3% on the month. The contraction in producer prices is predicted to have accelerated to -3.9% on the year, and to have doubled to -0.4% on the month. 

High hopes for Walmart, Home Depot earnings 

Markets think Walmart and Home Depot are well-positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Both stocks are over 4% higher year-to-date at the time of writing, compared to a -13% drop for the S&P 500. Walmart actually hit record highs at the end of April. 

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Walmart saw a 20% increase in sales during March alone. Markets clearly expect a lot from the leading retailers, but can Walmart and Home Depot deliver? 

Both Walmart and Home Depot have “Strong Buy” ratings according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Walmart has an average price target of $132.79 which represents a 7% upside on prices at the time of writing. Home Depot has a target price of $238.15, a 4% upside. 

Lowe’s, Target, and Best Buy are amongst the other companies reporting this week. 

FOMC meeting minutes 

We already know a lot more about the current thinking of the Federal Reserve thanks to last week’s speech from chair Jerome Powell. The minutes of the meeting at the end of April could be moot: Powell’s speech gave away what would likely have been the headlines from the minutes, namely that it was likely more stimulus would be necessary, but negative interest rates are not something being considered at this time. 

Eurozone economic sentiment set to go negative again 

April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany unexpectedly leapt back into positive territory. Assessment of current conditions remained dire, but investors began to focus on recovery. 

But the reality of the recession that lies between where we are now and where we’re trying to get back to is expected to hit sentiment hard again this month, with the German reading forecast to plummet back to -14 and the Eurozone wide reading dropping to -10. 

UK PMIs headed lower, Eurozone set to bounce off lows 

This week we get the flash PMI readings for May. UK manufacturing is expected to drop to 26.6, while the services index will slip to 9. The overall composite PMI is expected to drop from 13.8 to 9.2. 

Manufacturing and services in the Eurozone and its member states, however, are expected to rebound from their lows as economies began relaxing lockdown measures. Germany’s manufacturing index is predicted to jump around 10 points to 45, while services is forecast to more than double to 37 points. Overall the composite index is expected to climb from 17.4 to 40. The Eurozone composite is expected to rise from 13.6 to 34. 

It’s worth remembering that these figures still represent a huge rate of contraction across all areas of the economy. The Eurozone economy may have bounced back from the initial shock of COVID-19, but there is still a long road ahead – and expectations for how long are getting bigger all the time.

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week: 

18-May Ryanair – FY 2020
Pre-Market 19-May Walmart – Q1 2021
Pre-Market 19-May Home Depot – Q1 2020
19-May Imperial Brands – Q2 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Lowe’s – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Target Corp – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Analog Devices – Q2 2020
20-May Experian – FY 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Medtronic – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Best Buy – Q1 2021
After-Market 21-May Intuit – Q3 2020
After-Market 21-May Ross Stores – Q1 2020
After-Market 21-May Agilent Technologies – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May NVIDIA – Q1 2021
22-May Deere & Co – Q2 2020

Highlights on XRay this Week 

17.00 UTC   18-May  Blonde Markets
18.00 UTC  18-May   The Ten Rules of Trading
 15.30 UTC 19-May   Weekly Gold Forecast
 18.00 UTC 19-May Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends
11.00 UTC  20-May Midweek Lunch Wrap

Key Economic Events

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

23.50 UTC 17-May Japan Preliminary Quarterly GDP
01.30 UTC 19-May RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
06.00 UTC 19-May UK Claimant Count Change / Unemployment Rate
09.00 UTC 19-May Germany / Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
06.00 UTC 20-May UK Inflation
12.30 UTC 20-May Canada Inflation
14.30 UTC 20-May US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 20-May FOMC Meeting Minutes
07.15 – 08.00 UTC 21-May FR, DE, Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 UTC 21-May UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
12.30 UTC 21-May US Jobless Claims
13.45 UTC 21-May US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
22.45 UTC 21-May New Zealand Quarterly Retail Sales
06.00 UTC 22-May UK Retail Sales
12.30 UTC 22-May Canada Core Retail Sales

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