La settimana che ci aspetta: La Fed è pronta ad annunciare il taglio degli acquisti?

Tutti gli occhi sono puntati sulla Federal Reserve, per vedere se sfrutterà l’incontro del FOMC di settembre che si terrà questa settimana per annunciare la tanto attesa riduzione degli acquisti di asset. Nel frattempo, l’elevata lettura dell’inflazione registrata la scorsa settimana farà riflettere la Banca d’Inghilterra sull’opportunità di orientarsi verso posizioni più aggressive.

La Fed annuncerà il taglio del Quantitative Easing?

Sebbene i mercati non si aspettino che la Federal Reserve si affretti a ridurre gli acquisti di asset, il mercato è piuttosto fiducioso sul fatto che inizierà a ridurre il ritmo del suo programma di Quantitative Easing a partire da novembre. Ciò significa che l’incontro di questa settimana potrebbe essere il momento più opportuno per la Fed per dare un avvertimento al mercato.

L’inflazione dell’IPC della scorsa settimana ha reso leggermente fosche le prospettive, dal momento che è stata un po’ più debole del previsto, dando così alla Fed un po’ più di respiro. Cosa più importante, il rapporto sull’occupazione di agosto, risultato molto fiacco, suggerisce che la Fed potrebbe non volersi ancora decidere alla riduzione dell’acquisto di asset nel mese di novembre. Potrebbe però indicare che essa continui a ritenere che il la riduzione degli acquisti sia adeguata quest’anno, senza dare però una scadenza prestabilita.

Gli investitori saranno perlopiù interessati al modo in cui i responsabili delle politiche valuteranno il ritmo della ripresa del mercato del lavoro, e se riterranno che le pressioni inflazionistiche stiano diventando meno temporanee di quanto pensassero. Per avere indicazioni sul fatto che la Fed stia cambiando idea sul ritmo dell’inflazione e della crescita, verrà prestata particolare attenzione all’ultima tornata di proiezioni economiche.

La Banca d’Inghilterra risponde all’aumento dell’inflazione

Durante la sua riunione di questa settimana, la Banca d’Inghilterra dovrà rispondere al più grande balzo dell’inflazione mai registrato prima d’ora. L’inflazione ha accelerato al 3,2% in agosto dal 2% di luglio, ben al di sopra dell’obiettivo del 2% della banca centrale. Ciò spingerà la Banca d’Inghilterra ad adottare una politica monetaria restrittiva prima di quanto ci si aspettasse? Una Banca d’Inghilterra aggressiva rappresenterebbe una spinta per la sterlina.

Dati economici da osservare

Oltre a quanto sopra, questa settimana i mercati saranno in attesa di una serie di dati economici, compresi i PMI flash di giovedì per l’area Euro, il Regno Unito e gli Stati Uniti. La Banca del Giappone dovrebbe incontrarsi, con il governatore Kuroda che ha recentemente indicato che la banca centrale allenterà ulteriormente la politica monetaria, ad esempio riducendo i tassi di interesse, se necessario.

Gli utili di Nike e FedEx

Il calendario degli utili non è particolarmente fitto, ma ci aspettiamo gli aggiornamenti da Nike e FedEx, tra gli altri. A giugno, Nike ha registrato un risultato molto forte sul quarto trimestre, facendo schizzare il titolo a livelli record. Le vendite nel terzo quadrimestre sono salite del 96% rispetto allo stesso trimestre dell’anno precedente, con una crescita del 21% sul 2019. Anche i margini stanno migliorando rapidamente, dal momento che il sistema dell’azienda di fornitura diretta ai consumatori sta dando i suoi frutti. “L’anno fiscale 2021 è stato un anno cruciale per NIKE, poiché abbiamo attivato la nostra strategia Consumer Direct Acceleration in tutto il mercato”, ha spiegato il CEO John Donahoe. Tuttavia, negli ultimi tempi il valore delle azioni è sceso, tra le preoccupazioni per i problemi della catena di approvvigionamento e i milioni di prodotti persi in Vietnam a causa del covid.

“Nel corso della sua storia, le azioni Nike sono state strettamente correlate alla crescita delle vendite. Perciò, con la crescente evidenza che le vendite probabilmente si fermeranno, riteniamo che le azioni Nike nella migliore delle ipotesi resteranno a galla fino a quando non si avrà una maggiore chiarezza sui problemi di produzione e, nel peggiore dei casi, patiranno per le minori vendite e la conseguente compressione multipla”, hanno affermato gli analisti di BTIG in una nota che ha declassato il titolo a neutrale.

Da tenere sotto osservazione anche gli utili di Adobe, General Mills e Costco.

I principali dati economici

Mon Sep 20  12:01am  GBP  Rightmove HPI m/m 
  All Day  JPY  Japan Bank Holiday 
  All Day  CNH  China Bank Holiday 
  7:00am  EUR  German PPI m/m 
  Tentative  EUR  German Buba Monthly Report 
  3:00pm  USD  NAHB Housing Market Index 
  All Day  CAD  Canada Federal Election 
  10:00pm  NZD  Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
Tue Sep 21  All Day  CNH  China Bank Holiday 
  2:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
  7:00am  CHF  Trade Balance 
    GBP  Public Sector Net Borrowing 
  11:00am  GBP  CBI Industrial Order Expectations 
  1:30pm  CAD  NHPI m/m 
    USD  Building Permits 
    USD  Current Account 
    USD  Housing Starts 
  2:00pm  CNH  CB Leading Index m/m 
  3:30pm  AUD  CB Leading Index m/m 
  Tentative  NZD  GDT Price Index 
Wed Sep 22  Tentative  JPY  Monetary Policy Statement 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Policy Rate 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Press Conference 
  2:00pm  CHF  SNB Quarterly Bulletin 
  3:00pm  EUR  Consumer Confidence 
    USD  Existing Home Sales 
  3:30pm  Oil  Crude Oil Inventories 
  7:00pm  USD  FOMC Economic Projections 
    USD  FOMC Monetary Policy Statement 
  7:30pm  USD  FOMC Press Conference 
Thu Sep 23  12:00am  AUD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    AUD  Flash Services PMI 
  All Day  JPY  Japan Bank Holiday 
  Tentative  EUR  German Import Prices m/m 
  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    EUR  French Flash Services PMI 
  8:30am  CHF  SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 
    CHF  SNB Policy Rate 
    EUR  German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    EUR  German Flash Services PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    EUR  Flash Services PMI 
    EUR  ECB Economic Bulletin 
  9:30am  GBP  UK Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    GBP  UK Flash Services PMI 
  12:00pm  GBP  Bank of England monetary policy decision 
  1:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
    CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  US unemployment Claims 
  2:45pm  USD  US Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    USD  US Flash Services PMI 
  3:00pm  USD  CB Leading Index m/m 
  3:30pm  Nat Gas  Natural Gas Storage 
  10:45pm  NZD  Trade Balance 
Fri Sep 24  12:01am  GBP  GfK Consumer Confidence 
  12:30am  JPY  National Core CPI y/y 
  1:30am  JPY  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  7:00am  EUR  German GfK Consumer Climate 
  9:00am  EUR  German ifo Business Climate 
  3:00pm  USD  New Home Sales 

 

 

GameStop earnings look ahead

Meme stock favourite GameStop (GME) is set to report Q2 results after the market closes on Wednesday, September 8th. The stock, which was at the heart of the Reddit trading frenzy in January, is up more than 1,000% YTD and closed Tuesday’s session at $199, a loss of $3.45, or 1.7%, on the day.

Flush with the proceeds of a recent equity raising, the company has been tackling debt and seen encouraging sales progress, with growth across hardware, accessories and collectibles categories.

What should investors expect from GameStop earnings?

Markets expect losses to halve, with the company seen reporting a loss of $0.70 per share vs $1.40 per share seen in the same period a year ago. Revenues are expected to rise 20% year-on-year to  $1.1 billion.

In June the company said it would continue to suspend guidance for 2021 due to the pandemic, but said net sales were the best metric to follow. “The company’s second-quarter sales trends continue to reflect momentum, with May total sales increasing approximately 27% compared to last year,” the company stated.

Ultimately though the stock remains disconnected from fundamentals so the price action is more about expectations for the turnaround strategy. Given its propensity for volatility, traders should be willing to expect noisy price action around the results.

On the chart, we can see that after a run lower through June and July the subsequent rally has stalled and there is a clear loss of momentum to the upside. Bulls looking to break $230 to be encouraged at a return to March and June swing highs around the $340-350 level.

Chart showing GameStop price action on 08.09.2021.

Soft start to trading week for stocks, earnings season ahead

Stocks in Europe were weaker in early trade Monday, following a fresh record high being set on Wall Street on Friday as equity markets rebounded from a Thursday sell-off. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite all rose by around 1% to set new all-time closing highs. European bourses by contrast are tripping well-worn ranges. Bond markets are steady with US 10s around 1.35%, oil a tad lower this morning, but WTI remains above $74. Gold holds above the $1,800 level for now. The dollar is steady this morning after a couple of big down moves in the previous two sessions.

In the US, the big banks kick off earnings season on Wall Street this week. Thanks to the vaccine roll-out that has facilitated a broad reopening of the US economy, unleashing an apparent torrent of pent-up demand, as well stimulus and other enhanced Federal payments, expectations are very high for Q2. We can ignore the year-on-year numbers and the % gains – this is all fully priced anyway.

Financials give us a pretty good steer for the rest of the season. Banks have been buoyed by the broad reflation/reopening rotation this year but in the last couple of months we have seen this trend moderate and a flattening in the yield curve is a drag. This could become more of a problem if the Fed starts to talk about tapering and hikes start to come into view. Do banks see any impact on net interest margin as the curve flattens out? Moreover, where do we stand on growth and the booming economy that JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon said three months ago “could easily run into 2023”. And with peak growth already behind us, where does that leave equity markets: “While equity valuations are quite high (by almost all measures, except against interest rates), historically, a multi-year booming economy could justify their current price,” Dimon said in his last shareholder letter. Watch for how his views might have softened.

Investors will also be looking at share buybacks and dividends after the Fed gave all 23 major institutions the green light to up shareholder returns again. Trading revenues won’t be as strong as we have been used to, but loan loss provisions should continue to be written down, boosting headline EPS. Very strong numbers are expected, so banks have a lot of work to do and will require a major upside surprise this earning season.

It’s a busy corporate calendar in the UK this week. Wednesday sees Dunelm Q4 results after the company raised its full-year profit expectations back in May. Pent-up demand has been a boon, but we look for further guidance on how the company plans to adapt to reopening and a shift from consumers spending on homeware (lockdown favourite) to experiences/holidays.

Barratt Developments (BDEV) – FY21 trading update. Looking to see what one of the top UK housebuilders makes of the pricing in the market right now and reservation rates. Investors will also be looking for a guide on FY22 post the stamp duty holiday. Questions remain over whether the end of the stamp duty holiday and help to buy will lead to a shift lower in housebuilder shares, so this update will be useful for the broader market picture.

Also Thursday is a trading update from Hays – recent updates from Page and Robert Walters suggest a constructive backdrop for recruiters. Page recently reported a 2% rise in gross profit from the same quarter in 2019 and raised operating profit guidance for the year by up to 30% to between £125m n and £135 million.   The post-pandemic hiring boom should continue to offer support to results and the stock. Watch also the same morning for the UK unemployment and claimant count change figures.

Burberry – AGM Wednesday, trading update on Friday, coming off the back of the announcement of the departure of CEO Marco Gobbetti. This created near-term uncertainty about the leadership, corporate strategy and creative direction, but investors have not taken fright too badly. Goldman last week raised its rating on the stock to buy, raising the price target to 2,475p from 2,135p. A new CEO will allow a refresh and expectations are too low. The stock has significantly underperformed luxury peers. As noted previously, given the consolidation in the luxury sector, and the current valuation vs peers, it could be a target, so the stock should continue to trade with a slight bid premium. And whilst there are some pandemic-related issues still being washed out, Burberry remains a strong brand in the luxury space with room to appeal to a broader consumer base over the coming years.

On the economic data front, US consumer price index inflation on Tuesday, followed by the UK reading on Wednesday, are the key events this week.

First, the US. Last month’s report was a whopper: 5% annual inflation in May and 3.8% for the core reading – a 30-year high. Month-on-month showed cooling from +0.9% in Apr to +0.7% in May but remains elevated. Since then, however, we had the Fed sounding a little more attentive to inflationary risks and let it be known that it’s not going to let inflation get out of control. That’s capped yields which had been moving higher on expectations of rampant inflation – the reflation trade.  Anyway, the focus is not just on the Fed but whether inflation is here to stay – it’s probably too soon to make that call but I will be paying close attention to the core MoM reading for the best signal. It also about the types of assets, stock market sectors that should be doing well if inflation persists.  We will also be watching Fed chair Powell’s testimony in Congress this week.

In the UK, last time we got 2.1% and the Bank of England has said it’s ready to act if inflation goes too high. It does not have the same explicit AIT mandate. As noted on June 24th, the PMI report pointed to strong inflationary pressures that will take CPI above the bank’s 2% target. The question is how far above and for how long – and how does the Bank respond.  Governor Andrew Bailey has made clear the MPC won’t tolerate above-target inflation for long and whilst I thought the last BoE meeting in June was too soon to pull the hawkish card, I don’t think it will be long until it does.

Finally there is a Bank of Canada meeting this week and in the wake of a very strong jobs report on Friday it seems likely it will taper the CAD$3bn in weekly asset purchases.

La settimana che ci aspetta: L’incontro della FED per valutare il panorama dell’inflazione

Con l’evento del G7 in Cornovaglia che si concluderà domenica, la riunione della Federal Reserve sarà il grande evento nei mercati questa settimana, mentre gli operatori terranno anche d’occhio i dati ad alta frequenza, come le richieste di disoccupazione, le vendite al dettaglio e gli indici di produzione degli Stati Uniti. Nel frattempo, verranno valutati i dati sull’inflazione nel Regno Unito per rilevare eventuali segnali di pressione sui prezzi che potrebbero spingere la Banca d’Inghilterra ad irrigidire la sua politica monetaria prima del previsto.

FOMC

La dichiarazione di mercoledì della Federal Reserve non dovrebbe contenere novità eclatanti, ma sarà un incontro importante in quanto offrirà indizi sulla reazione della banca centrale ai crescenti timori legati all’inflazione. Sappiamo che la FED sarà felice di lasciare che l’inflazione salga un po’ durante l’estate, in quanto tutto è concentrato sul suo mandato di lavoro. Quindi, in questo momento i dati sul mercato del lavoro sono probabilmente più importanti dei numeri sull’inflazione. Su questo fronte, l’ultimo rapporto sui Nonfarm Payroll è stato particolarmente favorevole: non troppo buono da preoccuparsi di una riduzione anticipata del programma di acquisto di obbligazioni da 120 miliardi di dollari al mese della Fed, ma nemmeno tanto cattivo da preoccuparsi per la ripresa. La verità è che la FED sta esaminando entrambi, e questo incontro arriva in un momento di grande incertezza sul fatto che l’inflazione si dimostrerà davvero transitoria come ritengono i politici.

I verbali della riunione del FOMC di aprile hanno visto la FED lanciare un ballon d’essai, poiché parevano indicare che alcuni politici stessero pensando ad una riduzione degli acquisti di asset. “Un certo numero di partecipanti ha suggerito che se l’economia continuerà a fare rapidi progressi verso gli obiettivi posti dal Comitato, ad un certo punto nelle prossime riunioni potrebbe essere adeguato iniziare a discutere un piano per calibrare il ritmo degli acquisti di asset”, afferma il verbale. I membri del FOMC hanno anche sottolineato l’importanza di “comunicare chiaramente la propria valutazione dei progressi verso gli obiettivi a lungo termine con largo anticipo rispetto al momento in cui potrebbe essere giudicata sufficientemente sostanziale da giustificare un cambiamento nel ritmo degli acquisti di asset”. Provvisoriamente, resta la domanda: quand’è che la Fed penserà di aver raggiunto l’area di atterraggio per l’economia, con l’inflazione che nel frattempo decolla? L’incontro di questa settimana non dovrebbe riservare sorprese: in questo periodo i numeri sull’occupazione sono positivi, ma il mercato del lavoro è in qualche modo lontano dagli obiettivi della FED, mentre la storia dell’inflazione è abbastanza sotto controllo per ora.

Dati economici USA

Ci si concentrerà anche su una serie di importanti dati ad alta frequenza dagli Stati Uniti, comprese le vendite al dettaglio di maggio, l’inflazione dei prezzi alla produzione e gli indici di produzione per le regioni di New York e Filadelfia. Le aspettative per le vendite al dettaglio si stanno surriscaldando: la scorsa settimana la National Retail Federation ha incrementato le previsioni di crescita per le vendite al dettaglio negli Stati Uniti nel 2021 portandole tra il 10,5% e il 13,5%. Il mese di maggio dovrebbe mostrare una ripresa delle vendite dopo l’inaspettato stallo di aprile, perché l’impulso proveniente dai controlli sugli stimoli è svanito. Si prevede un’accelerazione nei prossimi mesi grazie ad una grande presenza di risparmi e alla rapida riapertura dell’economia.

L’inflazione nel Regno Unito

La Banca d’Inghilterra non pensa che l’inflazione sparirà, perciò la lettura dell’IPC di mercoledì mattina sarà seguita da vicino dagli operatori inglesi. Sebbene durante la sua ultima riunione la Banca abbia notevolmente migliorato le sue previsioni economiche a breve termine e annunciato una forma di riduzione “tecnica” degli acquisti di obbligazioni, le sue prospettive sull’inflazione suggeriscono che quest’anno non avrà fretta di aumentare i tassi di interesse. Ciò agirà contro la sterlina, mentre una lettura al di sopra delle previsioni potrebbe essere un vento favorevole.

 

I principali dati economici

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Event 
Jun 14th  10:00  EZ industrial production 
Jun 15th  07:00  UK unemployment  
  13:30  US retail sales, PPI, Empire State manufacturing index 
  14:15  US industrial production 
Jun 16th  03:00  China industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment  
  07:00  UK CPI inflation 
  13:30  Canada CPI inflation 
  15:30  US crude oil inventories 
  19:00  FOMC statement 
  19:30  FOMC press conference 
 Jun 17th  02:30  Australia unemployment 
  08:30  Swiss National Bank statement 
  10:00  EZ final CPI inflation 
  13:30  US unemployment claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index 
Jun 18th  tentative  Bank of Japan statement 

 

I principali rapporti sugli utili

Date  Company  Event 
Jun 15th  Oracle Corp.  Q4 2022 Earnings 
  On The Beach  Interims 
Jun 17th  Adobe Inc.  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Whitbread  Trading Update 
  Halfords  Finals 

 

Lloyds shares rally as divi resumes, markets react to Tuesday’s tech turmoil, Powell testimony continues

Consumers have developed a penchant for germ protection and disinfection during the pandemic. This has been good news for Reckitt Benckiser, which today reports record profits as a 20% jump in LFL hygiene sales lifted earnings. Dettol and Lysol sales growth were both very strong as consumers wiped down door handles and swabbed their Ocado bags on delivery. These habits, says management, will persist. Nutrition sales were flat on a like-for-like basis, which is less positive for longer-term health. Lockdown in microcosm, some might say. Partly that was down to lower birth rates, which are expected to persist as family planning is put on hold. If your wellbeing has taken a hit during the pandemic, perhaps some multivitamins will help. RB hopes so, saying vitamins, minerals and supplements, particularly immunity, and senior nutrition will support 3-5% growth for Nutrition longer-term. RB also reported “improved Durex momentum”, which presumably is contributing to the lower birth rates that, er, are affecting the nutrition business. Swings and roundabouts. Shares rose over 2% in early trade. 

 

Lloyds shares at last broke above 40p at long last as the company reported better-than-expected full year profits and resumed dividend payments. The company’s bullish outlook for 2021 is encouraging. Impairment charges of £4.2bn were a lot lower than the £4.7bn expected. Going forward I expect loan loss impairments for all the major banks will be much lower than many people believed nine months ago thanks to ongoing government support schemes for workers and businesses during the pandemic, combined with a swift recovery and bounce back in economic sentiment and spending in the summer.  

 

Other banks dragged on the FTSE 100, which fell 0.5% in the early part of trade on Wednesday. Miners led the way lower, with BHP and Rio Tinto both down by around 3%. Scottish Mortgage is down again after a battering from the tech selloff on Wall Street. European stocks were firmer after a confused Turnaround Tuesday on Wall Street. Asian shares fell with Hong Kong down 3% after the city’s government said it would raise the stamp duty paid on stock trades by both buyers and sellers to 0.13% from the current 0.1%. HSBC fell more than 2.7% in early London trading afterwards, while Standard Chartered declined 2%.  

 

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both reversed heavy early losses on Tuesday to close higher as some soothing words from Jay Powell seemed to lift the tide and ease concerns about rising inflation expectations and bond yields. The turnaround came as Powell spoke and urged that inflation remains ‘soft’. This helped cool the rise in yields and curves flattened a touch from their multi-year highs. Nevertheless, cyclicals led by energy and financials were the main drivers of the gains on the broad index, with tech suffering. 

 

Tech turmoil, or turnaround Tuesday?

 

The Nasdaq 100 plunged over 3% at one point, breaking under its 50-day simple moving average and testing the Jan 15th low at 12,758, as a tech selloff intensified with Tesla shares suffering a double-digit percentage fall in early trade. Tesla finished down a more modest 2% as Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest – one of the carmaker’s biggest backers – bought another $120m in stock, apparently helping to put a floor under the market – for now at least. The ARKK Innovation ETF finished 3% lower while the Nasdaq 100 managed to finish only 0.5% lower, closing above the 50-day SMA as the January support held. Softbank is said to be planning to invest billions in biotech stocks, though this didn’t seem to help the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, which closed down 1.5% on the day. 

 

Oil prices retreated from their highest levels in more than a year as the API reported a surprise 1m barrel build in inventories, vs expectations for a draw of more than 5m barrels, whilst about 80% of Texas production is now back online. Inventories at Cushing rose 2.8m vs expectations for a draw of 0.8m. Distillates declined by 4.5m and gasoline stocks rose by 0.1m. EIA figures today are expected to show a draw of 6.5m barrels. 

 

In FX, sterling keeps charging higher, with GBPUSD breaking above 1.42 after clearing 1.41 for the first time in three years only yesterday. The pound looks to be buoyed by a much stronger sentiment towards the UK domestic economy in 2021 with the roadmap for exiting the pandemic. It may be slow, but its measured and gives clarity to the market. It’s also believable – gold dust for governments – since the vaccine programme is progressing so well.

 

Bitcoin untethered 

 

Bitcoin rebounded after a dismal day with prices north of $50k again. Yesterday Tether and Bitfinex reached agreement with the New York Attorney General to pay an $18.5m fine to settle a long-running dispute that relates to whether the stablecoin Tether, which is supposed to be ‘pegged’ to the US dollar, really is fully tethered. The NYAG said the two entities covered up losses and massively overstated reserves. Neither admit to wrongdoing, but settled in the interest of “increasing transparency”. The statement from AG Letitia James is quite something, and I recommend giving it a read.  

 

“Bitfinex and Tether recklessly and unlawfully covered-up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” she said in a statement. “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.” By mid 2017, the NY AG says that Tether had “no access to banking, anywhere in the world”, which meant that contrary to what it told users, held “no reserves to back tethers in circulation at the rate of one dollar for every tether”.  

 

This all goes back to concerns that Tethers (which are supposed to be a kind of digital dollar, with each tether backed one-for-one with actual dollars) are used to buy Bitcoin and manipulate prices. A research paper published in 2018 alleged Bitcoin prices are being manipulated with Tether purchases. 

 

Powell testimony continues 

 

Is it time to go Catwoman on the debt…? No Jay Powell didn’t understand what Senator Kennedy from Louisiana was on about either. Still, it seems 2021 is again proving to be the year of the cat.  

 

Powell’s semi-annual testimony in Congress continues today after he delivered the necessary balm for markets yesterday. Powell reiterated that the Fed is not thinking about thinking about raising rates, stressing that price pressures so far remain muted. As expected, he really sought to push back against the bond market’s reading of events, which has seen yields rise and the yield curve steepen to multi-year highs. 

 

I did find it odd that Powell was so unwilling to get drawn on fiscal relief when he’s been a cheerleader for Washington to err on the side of doing more rather than less throughout the crisis. Speaking last year, he warned: “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. By contrast, the risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller. Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste.” This the Yellen playbook.  

 

Powell also reiterated that the Fed’s goal is for inflation to run above 2% for a time – as implied by average inflation targeting. The Fed, he said, expects readings on inflation to rise largely due to the base effect from low readings last year. He can see spending pick up substantially, which could put upward pressure on prices, but he stressed that this not likely to be large or persistent. After 25 years of disinflationary pressures, he argued that whilst inflationary pressures do change, they don’t change “on a dime”. Moreover, he said that if the US does get unwanted inflation, the Fed has the tools to do with it.  

 

House price growth in the US doesn’t look disinflationary right now. CPI measures don’t give a full picture of inflation – asset price inflation needs to be considered. Yesterday the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reported 10.4% annual house prices growth in 2020.

 

House price growth in the US doesn’t look disinflationary right now, according to the latest data

La settimana che ci aspetta: La fiducia dei consumatori USA vacilla, mentre l’aumento dei rendimenti influisce sui mercati

In attesa della prossima settimana, osserviamo la fiducia dei consumatori statunitensi muoversi su un terreno instabile, nonostante l’arrivo di ulteriori stimoli. Inoltre, anche l’aumento dei rendimenti avrà probabilmente grandi implicazioni per i mercati. Altrove, l’economia della Nuova Zelanda sembra rafforzarsi in vista delle dichiarazioni sui tassi di interesse della Reserve Bank of New Zealand, mentre Airbnb è in cima ai rapporti delle aziende a grande capitalizzazione la prossima settimana con la sua prima rendicontazione degli utili come società quotata in borsa.

La fiducia dei consumatori statunitensi non sembra così alta

In vista dei dati ufficiali sulla fiducia dei consumatori statunitensi che saranno pubblicati la prossima settimana, sembra che finora la fiducia dei consumatori a febbraio sia in calo.

I dati preliminari hanno rivelato una contrazione della fiducia dei consumatori stilato dall’Università del Michigan: da una lettura di 79,0 per il mese di gennaio il valore è sceso a 76,2 a febbraio, mentre le previsioni stimavano un valore attorno a 80,5-80,8.

Le famiglie a basso reddito, cioè quelle con un reddito annuo pari o inferiore a 75.000 USD, sembrano guidare il sentiment al ribasso. Solo il 23% delle famiglie in questo gruppo ha dichiarato che le proprie finanze sono migliorate dal 2014, e il 71% ha affermato di aver guadagnato con il proprio reddito.

La cosa interessante, secondo il direttore del sondaggio Richard Curtain, è che la fiducia dei consumatori è calata rispetto al mese precedente, nonostante Joe Biden abbia lavorato al più importante tra tutti i pacchetti di stimolo. Sono infatti in arrivo 1,9 bilioni di USD di aiuti, che metteranno almeno 1.400 USD nelle tasche dei consumatori statunitensi, oltre ad altri pacchetti di aiuti per le piccole imprese. Nel dicembre 2020 sono stati inoltre erogati 900 miliardi di USD a favore delle famiglie a basso reddito.

Gli aiuti sono in arrivo, ma al momento il sentiment dei consumatori sembra essere in una fase di stallo.

I tassi e le azioni reagiscono all’incremento dei rendimenti

Con il calo dei tassi, i rendimenti sono aumentati, il che potrebbe avere conseguenze per classi di attività come i futures, le azioni e forse anche le criptovalute.

Martedì scorso, i rendimenti del Tesoro hanno segnato il maggiore rialzo da 3 mesi a questa parte. I titoli a 10 anni sono cresciuti di 9 punti base, raggiungendo il massimo da febbraio sopra l’1,3%.

Come il nostro Analista Capo di Mercato Neil Wilson ha commentato in precedenza, in questo caso ci sono alcuni fattori importanti che determinano impulsi inflazionistici, in particolare:

  • Un volume importante di stimoli fiscali prociclici
  • Una politica monetaria estremamente accomodante
  • Una compressione della domanda
  • Una sovrabbondanza di risparmi

Le borse europee stanno perdendo terreno, con le preoccupazioni sui tassi di interesse che alimentano il pensiero degli investitori colti alla sprovvista dalla rapidità con cui i rendimenti assoluti cambiano. L’inflazione nel Regno Unito è passata dallo 0,6% di dicembre allo 0,7% di gennaio, a causa dell’aumento dei prezzi quelli dei mobili e dei prodotti per la casa, dei ristoranti e degli hotel, del cibo e dei trasporti.

Anche l’oro si è indebolito a causa dei rendimenti più elevati.

In sostanza, anche questo è un elemento di cui tenere traccia, oltre all’aumento dei rendimenti e alle implicazioni nel mondo degli investimenti e della finanza.

L’annuncio della Reserve Bank of New Zealand sui tassi di interesse: nessun cambio di rotta sul fronte neozelandese

La Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) presenterà la sua dichiarazione sui tassi di interesse la prossima settimana, e ci si aspetta che non siano in arrivo importanti cambiamenti.

L’economia neozelandese è stata una di quelle più resilienti nell’anno della pandemia. Le misure lockdown decise e rigorose, assieme al controllo delle frontiere, hanno limitato i danni causati dal Covid-19, e la Nuova Zelanda si è trovata così in una posizione economica migliore del previsto.

Il dollaro neozelandese (NZD) ha vissuto un eccellente 2020, facendo passi da gigante rispetto alla sterlina, all’euro e al dollaro USA, reagendo bene ad una prima metà dell’anno turbolenta e che aveva visto una forte svendita.

Ora ci si aspetta che in Nuova Zelanda non ci sia bisogno di ulteriori stimoli all’economia. I commentatori ritengono inoltre che non saranno adottati tassi negativi nemmeno dalla banca centrale della Nuova Zelanda.

Australia New Zealand Banking Group, uno dei principali istituti di credito del paese, non prevede una variazione dei tassi da parte della RBNZ, in parte a causa della forza dell’NZD, ma anche perché anche il mercato del lavoro del paese è in una buona salute.

Il tasso di occupazione in Nuova Zelanda è sceso al 4,9% nell’ultimo trimestre, in modo piuttosto inaspettato, con la sottoutilizzazione del lavoro in alcuni settori chiave anch’essa in calo. Gli stimoli del governo in alcune aree dell’economia stanno aiutando a coprire le carenze in altre, il che rappresenta un vantaggio sia per i datori di lavoro, che per i lavoratori, ma anche per l’economia nel suo insieme. Anche le esportazioni si sono mantenute su livelli soddisfacenti.

Sostanzialmente, le prospettive a breve termine sono ancora buone per la Nuova Zelanda. Alcuni prevedono che i tassi di interesse di riferimento inizieranno a salire nel 2024. L’inflazione dovrebbe salire al 2,5% entro giugno, ma potrebbe ridursi allo 0,8% l’anno prossimo. Pur tenendo d’occhio la Nuova Zelanda, sarebbe poco saggio aspettarsi una massiccia revisione della politica monetaria nelle dichiarazioni della prossima settimana.

I primi guadagni di Airbnb come società quotata in borsa

Airbnb ha iniziato ad essere quotata a dicembre 2020 e farà la sua prima rendicontazione degli utili agli investitori come azienda quotata in borsa il 25 febbraio.

Ovviamente, gli eventuali guadagni dovranno essere filtrati sotto la lente della pandemia. Secondo la sua dichiarazione S1, i volumi di prenotazione lordi di Airbnb sono calati del 39% su base annua nel 2020, per un totale di 18 miliardi di USD, mentre i ricavi sono diminuiti del 32% per un totale di 2,5 miliardi di USD nei primi 9 mesi del 2020. I lockdown obbligatori hanno avuto luogo in economie chiave come gli Stati Uniti, l’Unione Europea e il Regno Unito ad aprile 2020, con un blocco dei viaggi dei cittadini.

Tuttavia, Airbnb gode di un riconoscimento del marchio notevole, che potrebbe aiutare le sue azioni e le sue attività a fare meglio dei competitor. La sua capitalizzazione di mercato di circa 120 miliardi di USD supera i suoi rivali per le vacanze online come Expedia (22 miliardi di USD), Tripadvisor (5 miliardi di USD) e persino Booking.com (91 miliardi di USD). Le quotazioni sono rimaste relativamente stabili, e sono scese solo del 2% durante la pandemia con 5,6 milioni registrati a settembre 2020 contro i 5,7 milioni di dicembre 2019.

I soggiorni a lungo termine (cioè le prenotazioni di più di 28 giorni) sono scesi solo del 13% su base annua ad aprile 2020, che tradizionalmente è il mese peggiore per le prenotazioni alberghiere, ma hanno mostrato una crescita annuale tra maggio e settembre.

Un’opportunità di mercato prevista da 3,2 bilioni di USD potrebbe far sì che gli investitori continuino a contare su Airbnb. Stando ai commentatori, Airbnb ha un fortissimo potenziale nelle sue tre offerte chiave:

  • 1,8 bilioni di USD – Soggiorni a breve termine
  • 210 miliardi di USD – Soggiorni a lungo termine
  • 1,4 bilioni di USD – Esperienze

Inoltre, Airbnb ha avuto 247 milioni di ospiti nel 2019, pari al 3,8% dei 6,5 miliardi stimati di viaggi con soggiorno pagati in tutto il mondo quell’anno. Se riuscisse a catturare solo il 10% del mercato potenziale, Airbnb potrebbe guadagnare 340 miliardi di dollari in vendite all’anno.

Questa sarà una sessione di comunicazione degli utili a dir poco interessante. Saremo in grado di registrare l’impatto della pandemia su Airbnb e di capire se ha delle basi abbastanza solide per resistere alla tempesta in corso.

Le prospettive potrebbero essere già buone. La fiducia degli investitori sembra essere elevata. Le azioni di Airbnb sono cresciute del 200% dopo essere state quotate in borsa, e il 15 febbraio sono state scambiate attorno ai loro valori massimi.

I principali dati economici di questa settimana

 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Tue Feb 23  3.00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
       
Wed Feb 24  1.00am  NZD  Official Cash Rate 
  1.00am  NZD  RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 
  1.00am  NZD  RBNZ Rate Statement 
  1.00am  NZD  RBNZ Press Conference 
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu Feb 25  1.30pm  USD  Prelim GDP Q/Q 
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 

I principali rapporti sugli utili di questa settimana

 

Date  Company  Event 
Mon 22 Feb  Berkshire Hathaway  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Palo Alto Networks  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Tue 23 Feb  Home Depot  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Square  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  HSBC  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Thomson Reuters  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Wed 24 Feb  NVIDIA  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Lowe’s  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Royal Bank of Canada  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Budweiser  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  National Bank of Canada  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Puma  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Thu 25 Feb  Salesforce  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Airbnb  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Vale  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Toronto-Dominion Bank  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Moderna  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Bayer  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Dell  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  HP  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Etsy  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Telefonica  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Fri 26 Feb  Deutsche Telekon  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  BASF  Q4 2020 Earnings 

Bank of England pulls QE lever, Biden close to victory

Easing ain’t as easy as it looks: The Bank of England increased its programme of government bond purchases by an additional £150bn.

This was more than the market was expecting and took the total stock of government bond purchases to £875 billion.

That said, the BoE had pretty well telegraphed this move yesterday when it decided to bring the decision forward from 12 noon to 7am – most pundits assumed that this meant a monetary policy decision of note that the BoE didn’t want to get entangled with the chancellor’s latest pandemic statement.

Interest rates were kept at 0.1% and the MPC voted 9-0 for the measures. There was no talk of negative rates, just mention of the risks to the currency being to the downside. That may be, but sterling rallied as there was no surprise rate cut and no mention of plans to take rates negative.

GBPUSD rose sharply from 1.2940 to above 1.30 after the announcement, eyeing near-term resistance peaks at 1.3050 and then the 1.3140 high at the peak of the ‘blue wave’ dollar selling on election night before the results showed a much tighter race than polls indicated.

Trump’s election chances hang by a mainly legal thread now that Joe Biden has secured Wisconsin and Michigan. Nevada resumes counting today with Biden having a tiny lead in the state and 25% of the vote yet to count – you think this would favour the Democrat.

Meanwhile, NBC projects that Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District will swing it for Biden. Legal challenges from Trump are incoming in Wisconsin and Georgia but unlikely to be a material drag – excluding some attempts to block counts and question the validity of some ballots, the smooth transition of power was never really in doubt. But it’s clear there has been no Blue Wave.

The Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate to Blue appear to have gone, though counting continues. America remains as divided as ever, with a Blue White House needing to work with a Red Senate, some of the more extreme tendencies of the Democrats will be handicapped. The worst of the volatility is behind and while we need to get through these legal challenges, a return to a Blue White House and Red Senate may result is a calmer policy situation (fingers crossed!).

It looks almost certain we will get the ‘So Mauve’ outcome from our election playbook (Biden win, Senate stays red). As detailed there, this implies a degree of gridlock in Washington, which ex-stimulus is not always a bad thing for the market:

  • Less uncertainty over policy likely to support equities, particularly Big Tech, whilst a Biden presidency ought to see some degree of a reset with trade partners that would boost sentiment and corporate earnings.
  • Stimulus delays could create near-term volatility, but it would be in no one’s interests to drag their feet for long given any ballot box risk would be two years away.
  • Tax uncertainty removed = +ve for equity valuations, especially Growth
  • Improvement in trade relations with partners and China could see EM supported as well as European equities/currency – would also tend to boost US corporate earnings
  • Not as bad for the dollar as a Blue Wave result with trade reset likely to support flows, also less fiscal expansion a factor, but USD seen weaker in this outcome as part of broader downtrend.

US and European equities rallied Wednesday in the wake of the election and carried through with this positivity. Solid gains of 0.5% registered on the FTSE 100 taking the blue chip index above 5,900 and the trend indicates a push to 6,000.

There is clearly some relief in the markets that the election is (almost) behind us – as I’ve been saying the threat of a ‘crisis’ level disputed election (Trump refusing to leave office) was always overstated and a few days of court decisions won’t matter much for investors with a longer-term horizon, and it’s these flows that are driving things here.

The Blue Wave reflation trade clearly had to unwind – US 10 year yields have retreated to 0.73%, from achieving a multi-month high on election night of 0.945%. Financials fell, with shares in JPMorgan –3% and Bank of America –4%. Lower nominal rates also +ve for gold, with spot to $1,915 in early trade this morning.

Just to highlight how much Tech likes the result (i.e. no Democrat Senate to mess around with regulations and raise taxes, as well as no reflation trade to spark rotation out of growth to value), Nasdaq futures are up 10% from their Monday lows. Amazon and Alphabet jumped 6%, with Apple +4% and Facebook rallying +8%.

NASDAQ Performance

Stocks try to steady after sell-off

What did I miss? Markets in Europe steadied but failed to really bounce after a brutal sell-off on Wednesday saw all the major indices deeply in the red and trading at levels not seen for some time.

The instigation of second national lockdowns in Germany and France rattled markets.

Election nerves may also be present, particularly as the path to a stimulus package in the US will not become clear until after the results are known.

We know that governments are supportive of business, but we also know it was a long slog out of lockdown last time and won’t be easy this time. Markets had become a little complacent about the recovery and secondary lockdowns tell a different story – it will be rocky and uneven.

The S&P 500 tumbled 3.5% and closed below 3,300 with similar losses on the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Vix futures rose to levels not seen since the sell-off at the start of September.

Futures point to a higher open on Wall Street. US GDP figures later will give the first look at the Q3 bounce back. The dollar rose back to the top of the recent range with the euro coming under pressure from lockdowns measures in the bloc’s two largest economies.

GBPUSD was steady at 1.30 but won’t move until there is a significant Brexit headline.

Lockdowns are not good for oil sentiment. Prices slumped on the lockdown announcements but also felt the pinch from a rise in US crude stocks. EIA figures showed a 4.3m barrel build in US crude inventories.

As we have been warning, the threat of falling demand leading to inventories flipping from draws to builds has been present and we can expect this trend to weigh on prices.

Nevertheless, Shell raised its dividend after reporting better-than-expect earnings for its third quarter. Management hiked the divi by 4% to 16.65 cents – having made an historic cut to the dividend during the peak of the pandemic earlier in the year. Shares rose over 3% in early trade.

Lloyds shares also rose after it swung back into profit and set aside less for impairments than feared – chatter around dividends returning will get louder, particularly as these results come in the wake of some pretty upbeat notices from the larger banks.

The risk is that the fiscal support runs out and new lockdowns and depressed demand due to the chronic impact of the pandemic on consumer and business sentiment means impairments are going to rise later in 2021.

It’s a big day for corporate earnings in the US and the focus will undoubtedly fall on the FAANGs with Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) all set to report quarterly earnings figures later.

Earnings come amid heightened scrutiny on big tech as the US Department of Justice opened an antitrust case against Google’s parent company, Alphabet, whilst executives from social media giants faced a Senate hearing yesterday on reforming so-called Section 230 rules that give tech platforms immunity from prosecution over user-generated content. Shares in all fell sharply on Wednesday amid the market turmoil.

With lockdowns in focus, today’s European Central Bank meeting will be of particular importance for European markets. Many market participants are increasingly betting on the ECB carrying out further easing in a bid to boost faltering economic growth and stagnant prices.

The Eurozone slid into its second straight month of deflation in September and with further lockdowns being imposed across the bloc, the risks to the economic outlook have clearly deteriorated since the last meeting and the assumptions for growth contained in the ECB’s September look out of step with reality. Weakness in Friday’s PMIs highlights the concern among businesses, particularly in services.

The threat of a double-dip recession is real – Christine Lagarde recently commented that the resurgence of the virus is a clear risk to the economy – and that was long before the imposition of national lockdowns in Germany and France.

Given the murkier outlook and dreadful inflation backdrop, it seems all but certain the ECB will increase its bond-buying programme by another €500bn by December – albeit it may choose to increase PSPP rather than PEPP – for the markets these acronyms won’t matter too much – it’s the size and duration of the liquidity injection that matters, not how it is presented.

Lagarde may drop some hints in the press conference to increasing PSPP/PEPP envelopes in December but will not over-commit. Moreover, with progress on delivering on the fiscal side slow, the ECB will feel obligated to step up.

To get a flavour of the mood in the ECB, the usually hawkish Austrian central bank head Robert Holzmann said recently: “More durable, extensive or strict containment measures will likely require more monetary and fiscal accommodation in the short run.” Fundamentally it will be more of the same from the ECB with it stressing it is ready to do more and the momentum is with the doves to ease more.

Ahead of the election next Tuesday, Biden leads by 7.5pts nationally, and by 3.6pts in the battlegrounds.

Stocks firmer, China slows, earnings in focus

Bad news = good news. Relatively lacklustre growth in China has the market baying for more stimulus. To be fair, despite the headline Q2 GDP number slipping to a 30-year low at 6.2%, there were some signs of encouragement. Industrial production rose 6.3% in June, an improvement on the 5% growth in May. Retail sales also beat forecasts so. Most of the recent softness seems trade-related, with exports having dipped 1.3%.

Asia has broadly ticked higher despite, or indeed because of, the softer China GDP numbers. Futures show European markets are higher after a fairly lacklustre weak. Indeed European equity markets moved lower last week just as the US was punching record highs. Time for Draghi and co to turn the taps on. 

Indices march higher

Wall Street continues to roar higher, with the S&P 500 closing up half a percent on the day at 3,013.77. Oil and gold fairly steady.

Bitcoin is weaker, slipping to support around $10k having given up the $11,600 level. FX steady – GBPUSD holding at 1.2570, with EURUSD at 1.1270. Volatility in FX has collapsed with central banks turning the liquidity taps back on.

Earnings season kicks off

Earnings season is coming with fairly low expectations. Two weeks prior to earnings season 82% of companies that had revised earnings estimates going into the reporting period had lowered them. Lowballing by Wall Street ahead of earnings season is normal, but the scale of the downward revisions is noteworthy. This happened ahead of the Q3 2018 earnings, just before we saw stocks slump into a bear market, albeit one that has proved very temporary.   

Recession – We’re likely to see an earnings recession. Q1 earnings declined 0.29%, therefore making this likely to become a full-blown earnings recession, that is, back-to-back year-on-year declines in EPS. In 2016, the last time this happened, we saw earnings decline for 4 straight quarters. S&P 500 companies are expected to report a roughly 3% decline in EPS this quarter. 

Trade concerns – whilst we had a degree of détente at the G20, existing tariffs are still in place and no meaningful progress has been seen. There’s a growing acceptance that the US and China are in this for the long-haul. The US election cycle means we are unlikely to see a reason for Trump to do any deal until 2020. Whilst for now the mood is upbeat, in the event of no deal, the lack of progress through the rest of the year would likely begin to drag on sentiment and affect equity markets. If corporates see additional tariffs being imposed their EPS forecasts would need to be revised substantially lower. The impact of the US-China trade war on earnings is yet to be fully felt but we could hear from a number of large-caps voicing concerns. The extent to which CFOs highlight worry about trade on EPS forecasts will be of particular importance. Of course we are likely to see a lot of kitchen sinking with companies blaming trade for all manner of ills.  

Banks start the ball rolling this week. Big question over interest rates – rate cuts may well be coming in the US and this will have implications for banks. Net interest margin would likely fall although the easier credit conditions would offset some of the negative effects. Citigroup unofficially kicks off the earnings season on Wall Street today. How much will banks be affected by Fed rate cuts? In investment banking, is there anything from the Deutsche carcass worth stripping? 

Equities 

Sports Direct – the soap opera continues – delays annual results due to House of Fraser uncertainty. The big question was what impact House of Fraser and various other acquisitions of dubious value would have on Sports Direct results. A material impact, one can only assume. HoF must be losing money hand over fist.  Looking to the earnings, top line growth is expected to rise but profits are seen weaker as the cost of acquisitions weighs. Since reporting an 27% decline in underlying profits in the first half we’ve not heard a peep from Sports Direct on performance. The delay in delivering the annual results does not sit well with investors, who must be nervous about what it means. It seems likely it’s been a tough ride in the core Sports Direct retail division, whilst acquisitions have added nothing but increased costs.

Apple earnings preview: eyes on services revs, margins and China

A whopper of a profits warning at the beginning of January has done nothing to dent Apple’s share price performance in 2019, which is +40% higher this year. So what happens now, with expectations reset lower? Here’s our quick take on what to expect as Apple reports its fiscal second quarter numbers after the close on Tuesday.

It’s all about the pivot away from iPhone unit sales to focus investor attention on Services revenues and the wider Apple ecosystem. Of course, iPhone unit sales won’t be reported. 

Q1 marked a 5% decline in revenues company wide as revenues from iPhone sales declined 15%. Total revenues from everything else plus services was up 19%.

Apple’s guidance

In its Q1 earnings update the company provided the following guidance for Q2: 

  • revenue between $55 billion and $59 billion 
  • gross margin between 37 percent and 38 percent 
  • operating expenses between $8.5 billion and $8.6 billion 
  • other income/(expense) of $300 million 
  • tax rate of approximately 17 percent 

Wall Street is anticipating EPS of $2.36 v $2.73 a year ago, whilst revenues are also seen declining from $61.1bn last year to $57.4bn.  

Dial back to the Jan warning from Tim Cook and it was China where the real trouble lay. We would expect some improvement here to be seen in this quarter’s numbers with demand for iPhones picking up again in the wake of price cuts. 

Services in focus

On Services, clearly the marked it eyeing another bumper jump in revenues, which were up 19.1% in the first quarter. But the impact on overall margins will also be important. The higher margins here should deliver ongoing support to group margins. For Q1, it reported Services margins of 62.8% against 58.3% in the year before.  

We’ll also be looking for anything relating to its suite of new products launched in March – credit card, streaming service, News+ and Arcade. Whilst only News+ was available after the launch event, we may get more of a feel of how these services will affect the bottom line – pricing will be of particular importance. Don’t hold out for much detail in the earnings report, although there could be something in the earnings call.  

Markets will also be eyeing capital returns. A year ago the company committed to $100 in buybacks and dividends over a two-year period. We may well Apple outline further capital returns via an increase in the dividend (10% is being talked about, against a 16% rise last year) and more buybacks. Even if the number are a touch soggy the prospect of more capital returns should keep investors on side. 

Average price target from the 36 analysts we track suggests a 3% downside to the current price at a little short of $200. Following a strong showing so far in 2019, Tuesday’s earnings may result in some changes to price targets on the upside. 

Key focus: Are Services revenues really going to continue to accelerate enough to offset the plateau in iPhone sales? Is there evidence of a bounce back in China?

CySEC (Europa)

Prodotto

  • CFD
  • Negoziazione di azioni
  • Costruttore di strategia

  • I fondi dei Clienti sono tenuti in conti bancari separati
  • Compensazione FSCS per l’Investitore fino a EUR 20.000
  • Copertura assicurativa da €1.000.000**
  • Protezione dal Saldo Negativo

Markets.com, gestito da Safecap Investments Limited (“Safecap”) Regolamentato dalla CySEC con licenza numero 092/08 e dalla FSCA con licenza numero 43906.

FSC (Globale)

Prodotto

  • CFD
  • Costruttore di strategia

  • I fondi dei Clienti sono tenuti in conti bancari separati
  • Verifica elettronica
  • Protezione dal Saldo Negativo
  • Copertura assicurativa da $1.000.000**

Markets.com, gestito da Finalto (BVI) Limited (“Finalto BVI”) Tiene la licencia número SIBA/L/14/1067 regolamentato dalla B.V.I Financial Services Commission (“FSC").

FCA (Gran Bretagna)

Prodotto

  • CFD
  • Le spread bet
  • Costruttore di strategia

  • I fondi dei Clienti sono tenuti in conti bancari separati
  • Indennizzo agli investitori della FSCS fino a GBP85.000. *a seconda di criteri ed idoneità
  • Copertura assicurativa da £1.000.000**
  • Protezione dal Saldo Negativo

Markets.com gestito da Finalto Trading Limited Regolamentato dalla Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) con licenza n.607305

ASIC (Australia)

Prodotto

  • CFD

  • I fondi dei Clienti sono tenuti in conti bancari separati
  • Verifica elettronica
  • Protezione dal Saldo Negativo
  • Copertura assicurativa da $1.000.000**

Markets.com, gestito da Finalto (Australia) Pty Limited Detiene una licenza per i servizi finanziari australiana n. 424008 ed è regolamentata nella fornitura di servizi finanziari dell’Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC”).

Selezionando uno di questi organismi di regolamentazione, verranno visualizzate le informazioni corrispondenti su tutto il sito web. Se vuoi visualizzare le informazioni per un organismo di regolamentazione diverso, selezionalo. Per maggiori informazioni, clicca qui.

**Soggetto a termini e condizioni. Consulta la polizza integrale per maggiori dettagli.

 

Ti sei perso?

Abbiamo rilevato che sei sul sito . Dal momento che ti stai collegando dall’, valuta se effettuare nuovamente l’accesso al sito , soggetto alle misure di intervento sul prodotto dell’. Pur rimanendo libero di navigare su queste pagine su tua esclusiva iniziativa, visualizzando il sito per il tuo paese potrai consultare le informazioni di regolamentazione pertinenti e le protezioni fornite dall’azienda scelta. Vuoi essere reindirizzato al sito ?