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Monthly recap: German elections, hot UK inflation and NFP miss
We recap some of the key market movers from September in this monthly round-up.
Monthly markets recap: September 2021
Germany waves goodbye to Angela Merkel in tight federal elections
After sixteen years at the helm, Angela Merkel will step down as German Chancellor following late September’s closely contested German elections.
It’s a hugely fragmented result. Pretty much all parties did worse than they thought. The SPD is the majority party, but they’re still very close to the CDU to really have a massive advantage. You could only separate them with a cigarette paper really.
The Green’s, after topping the polls four months ago, came in third while the FDP came in fourth.
Olaf Scholtz, the leader of the SPD, now has his work cut out trying to turn these close results into a working coalition. But what we’ve seen is what our political guru and Blonde Money CEO Helen Thomas calls a Code Red for Germany – that is a shift to the left with a bit of a green hint too.
What the next German federal government looks like now is up for debate. The Green Party is probably going to be central, after doubling their Reichstag presence, but it’s out of the CDU and FDP to see who becomes the third coalition partner. See Helen Thomas’ election round-up below for more information.
Nonfarm payrolls’ massive miss
Nonfarm payrolls came in well below expectations in a wobbly US jobs report.
In August, 275,000 new jobs were added to the US economy, falling far below the 750,000 forecast.
The unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% while labour force participation stayed unchanged at 61.7%. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% in August, surpassing market predictions of a 0.3% rise.
Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on the jobs report. Labour market participation has been one of the key metrics the Fed has been looking at throughout the pandemic to decide on whether to start tapering economic support.
We know that Jerome Powell and the Fed loves a strong jobs report. But we also know that tapering is on its way anyway – likely in November. August’s job data may not have impacted decision making too much, given the tapering signals were made long before its release.
However, Fed Chair Powell still believes the US is still far from where he’d comfortably like employment to be.
Speaking last week, Powell said: “What I said last week was that we had all but met the test for tapering. I made it clear that we are, in my view, a long way from meeting the test for maximum employment.”
A recent survey taken by the National Association for Business Economics showed 67% of participating economists believed job levels won’t reach pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.
UK inflation jumps
August’s CPI data, released in September, showed UK inflation had reached 3.2%. That’s the highest level since 2012.
Rising from 2% in July, the latest CPI print also showed a huge month-on-month rise in prices. Inflation soared well clear of the Bank of England’s 2% target – although the UK central bank did say it believed inflation would hit 4% in 2021.
However, some market observers believe there is a risk that inflation will overshoot even the 4% level.
The question is how will the BoE respond? A more hawkish tilt could be possible.
Markets.com Chief Markets Analyst Neil Wilson said: “Unanchored inflation expectations are the worst possible outcome for a central bank they’ve been too slow to recognise the pandemic has completely changed the disinflationary world of 2008-2020.
“My own view, for what it’s worth, is that the Bank, just like the Fed, has allowed inflation overshoots to allow for the recovery, but it’s been too slow and too generous. Much like the response to the pandemic itself, the medicine (QE, ZIRP) being administered may be doing more harm (inflation) than good (growth, jobs).”
China intensifies its crypto crackdown
Bitcoin was rocked towards the end of September after being hit with a body blow landed by the People’s Bank of China.
The POBC has ruled that all cryptocurrency transactions in China are illegal. That includes all transactions made by Chinese citizens domestically and those coming from offshore and overseas exchanges.
BTC lost over 8% and nearly dropped below the $40,000 mark on the news from Beijing. It has subsequently staged a comeback, but this latest move from China tells us a couple of important things about crypto.
Number one: volatility is ridiculous. The fact that Bitcoin is still so susceptible to big swings on both positive and negative news shows it’s still very volatile. It seems hard to see a future driven by crypto right now if such price swings will be the norm. If this is the case, let’s hope it calms down in the future.
Secondly, it’s that central banks are still wary of digital finance. In China’s case, it loves control.
Beijing’s official stance is that cryptocurrency is a) illegitimate, b) an environmental disaster, and c) something it cannot control completely. Freeing finances from government oversight is the entire point of decentralised finance (DeFi) after all. In a country as centralised as China, that’s a no-go.
China has pledged to step up its anti-crypto, anti-mining efforts further. This could cause major ripples for Bitcoin and the digital finance sector as a whole. A significant chunk of global token supply comes from Chinese miners. Someone else will have to pick up the slack.
Oil & gas prices stage major rally
A global gas shortage and tighter oil supplies pushed prices into overdrive towards the end of September.
Natural gas, in particular, was flourishing. At one point, gas had climbed above $6.30, reaching highs not seen for three years. Basically, there’s not enough gas to go around. High demand from the UK and EU is pushing prices up, while the US, which is meant to be in injection season, is also suffering. Asian demand is also intensifying.
In terms of oil, a supply squeeze coupled with higher demand caused by major economies reopening is putting a support under oil prices.
Traders are also confident. Energy markets are the place to be right now. As such, trader activity appears to be pushing these new highs and is confident regarding the market’s overall strength.
Goldman Sachs has also revised its oil price targets upwards.
Goldman said: “While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.
“The current oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.”
Bitcoin battered by POBC crypto punch
Bitcoin has taken a major body blow after the latest Chinese crypto crackdown was announced this morning.
People’s Bank of China rules crypto transactions are illegal
Volatility and Bitcoin: name a more iconic duo.
With the token starting the day in the green, traders were hoping to see a reversal to the bearish patterns and price action seen in September so far.
A fresh ruling from the People’s Bank of China put paid to that.
China’s central bank has said that all cryptocurrency transactions in the country are illegal and must be banned. As anti-crypto signals go, they don’t come much tougher than that.
A statement by the POBC said that all cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Tether and Ether, are not fiat currency, thus they should not be circulated on the market.
The ban includes services provided by offshore and international exchanges to domestic Chinese citizens.
China’s crackdown on digital currencies has been rumbling along across the year, but this is the most overt statement yet.
The nation already moved to ban crypto mining earlier in the year. China’s economic planning agency said efforts to completely root mining out are underway, which could pose big problems for the global BTC supply.
Additionally, the POBC is stepping up its monitoring of cryptocurrency transactions, including speculative investing.
“Financial institutions and non-bank payment institutions cannot offer services to activities and operations related to virtual currencies,” the bank said
Bitcoin, as well as other tokens such as Ethereum, have been sent reeling by this news. Associated stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy have also begun to slide on the PBOC’s comments.
BTC had been trading over $45,000 prior to the bank’s proclamation. At the time of writing, it had lost 5% as it spirals back into the red. Bitcoin is now being traded for around $42,500 but will likely slide further as the day progresses.
Some analysts were expecting higher prices towards the weekend with talk of $47,000. Now, it looks like BTC is going to continue to trend downwards into next week.
Looking at crypto boards just shows red. Ethereum is down nearly 10% and so is Litecoin. Polkadot has dropped over 11% while Ripple has also dropped by 8%.
Consternation over another market drop has never been far away from the Bitcoin sector after it tumbled from all-time highs of over $65,000 earlier in the year.
Arcane’s Fear & Greed index, which measures general market attitudes regarding BTC performance, was flashing bearish signals at the start of the week and this has continued.
On a scale of 0-100, with 0 being extreme fear and 100 being extreme greed, BTC registered a 27 rating on Tuesday, suggesting fears the market may bottom out are coming to fruition.
Realistically, this move should have probably been spotted earlier. As mentioned above, China has not exactly been subtle in its government-led distaste for decentralised finance. This is a nation where pretty much everything passes through government control after all.
But just when things were looking good for BTC, it’s down once more. It only goes to show just how volatile cryptocurrency trading is and how susceptible the market is to external pressures.
Perhaps wider global regulation may cause stabilisation across the board, but for now, cryptocurrencies are probably going to continue to pitch on volatile seas.
China risks weigh on stocks, Fed meeting ahead
Rough day for equities: China risks to the fore at the start of the week as the fallout from the collapse of Evergrande weighed on the Hong Kong market. The Hang Seng fell 3.5%, with Evergrande down another 12%. Basic resources are feeling the heat as a slowdown in demand from Chinese property developers would be a negative. Luxury also hit – Chinese investors are seeing portfolios hammered, which means less for fur coats. Hong Kong’s weakness was all the more noticeable with Japan, China and South Korea on holiday. Spiking natural gas prices and a European energy crisis, talk of produce shortages and surging inflation don’t provide an encouraging backdrop. Meanwhile a Federal Reserve meeting this week and Sunday’s German election both offer macro uncertainty.
Contagion risks from the Evergrande meltdown are the prime cause of today’s sell-off. You’ve got all kinds of banks and insurers caught in the net but ultimately, I don’t see this as a Lehman’s moment right now. But combined with the tech crackdown it’s probably another reason why investors will be seeking to avoid China in the near term. What we are seeing today is how risks get priced gradually then suddenly. It is definitely though a major cause for investor concern right now and it is possible we see further losses before the dip finally gets bought. A market so well-conditioned to buying the dip will find it hard to resist. But the Fed meeting this week will be of particular importance – does a Chinese property collapse and energy crisis collide with expectations for a Fed rate hike next year and biting inflationary pressures? That would be a pretty nasty cocktail for risk appetite and I think these are the risks being priced into today’s (and possible further) selling.
European equities took the weak handover and limped to a decline of more than 1% in early trade. The blue-chip index is now testing its 200-day simple moving average at 6,880. Rolls-Royce and AstraZeneca gained 2% each but the rest of the board is nasty looking, led lower by basic resources and financials. Prudential fell 4% after placing 130m shares in Hong Kong following the demerger of its US business Jackson Financial. A very soft start for the DAX’s brave new world – 10 more companies added as of this morning but down more than 2% at the start of the session. Airline stocks are just about the only bright spot on the Stoxx 600 as investors bet that looser restrictions will drive up demand over the winter. Also, Lufthansa’s decision to launch a capital raise to pay back the €2.1bn state bailout it received during the pandemic is also being viewed as a positive – clearly, the company feels the medium-term prospects allow it to think about paying back the state. All sectors on the Stoxx 600 are lower.
Wall Street suffered a third straight down week, with the S&P 500 failing to hold its 50-day SMA support and declining 0.9% on Friday to 4,432.99. Futures indicate the market will open about 1% lower around 4,390. The Dow Jones industrial average was lower by 0.5% on a day of veay volume – the highest since July on quad witching day. Although the S&P 500 has traded through its 50-day SMA before and bounced in the last year, we’re dealing with a set of financial fears (China) rather than ‘concerns’ about a variant weighing on growth.
Conspiracy theory: Handy timing for Fed officials to be forced to sell their stocks a week or two ago because of ‘ethics’, not perhaps because they wanted out at the top? The Fed haters and many more think it’s more than a coincidence that their stock trading was revealed, leading to voluntary liquidation just in time to avoid a fallout. Better that than selling out at the top and people finding out later.
Metals weaker – copper down 2% and testing its 200-day SMA, gold treading water at $1,750 after last week’s steep losses, hitting its lowest since mid-August earlier this morning. Silver – once a darling of the Reddit crowd – dropped to its weakest since Nov 2020.
Natural gas prices in the US have come back after spiking last week above $5.60 – top called? Expected rise in demand going into the winter may be well priced. Remember what is happening in Europe with gas prices and the infrastructure problems are not directly correlated to the Henry Hub contract.
The USD is finding all this risk-off sentiment a positive – fresh three-week highs for DXY. GBPUSD declined to a new three-week low at 1.36650, towards the bottom of the YTD range, whilst EURUSD is testing a 4-week low at 1.170.
Cryptocurrencies also markedly weaker on the general risk-off liquidation we are seeing across global markets. Bitcoin took a leg lower in early European trade and may want to test the Sep 13th lows around $44k.
Little in the way of data today so all the China contagion/fallout stories will be the prime driver of sentiment. Looking ahead we have the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday – key question is whether it announces plan to taper QE or sits on its hands a little longer. But actually, the key risk lies in what the dots (if you still look at them) tell us about when Fed policymakers (increasingly hawkish?) think the lift-off date for rate hikes will be. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will need to respond to biggest jump in inflation on record when it convenes this week. Does is call time on QE now and prepare the market for a rate hike soon? Surging inflation is not going away and the MPC risks all kinds of trouble by not administering some medicine early.
Stocks start September strongly, OPEC+ ahead
European stocks kicked off September with a strong start, with the major bourses back towards the tops of recent ranges. The DAX rose close to 1% in early trade to 15,980 as German bond yields hit a 6-week high, whilst the FTSE rose to 7,177 at the start. Wall Street dipped slightly on Tuesday in quiet trade ahead of Friday’s key jobs report but nevertheless managed to eke out a 7th straight monthly gain like its European and global peers. SPX now up 20% for the year without any sizeable drawdown – the 50-day SMA holding the line every time it’s tested and it’s now breezed through 4,500 without a glance back. The question now is after 7 months of gains, valuations stretched and economic growth struggling to retain the kind of perkiness it had on the initial rebound, can the market continue to glide higher? A combination of ongoing earnings strength, normalisation of the economic situation as reopening proceeds, and ongoing support from a dovish Fed suggest there is more upside, but not without some larger pullbacks along the way.
Stagflation: Manufacturing activity across all seven countries in the ASEAN block contracted for the first time since May 2020. PMIs for the region remained firmly in contraction territory, whilst inflationary pressures also remained high. “Input costs increased markedly again, with firms raising their average charges at an accelerated pace as a result,” IHS said. China’s Caixin PMI also registered a drop, marking the first time it has been in contraction for a year and a half. In Europe, German retail sales plunged by 5% – after yesterday’s 3% inflation print for the EZ. PMIs for the Eurozone already showing declining momentum + deeper supply chain problems + accelerating inflation pressures.
Crude oil remains with a slight bullish bias with WTI (spot) holding $69 after a larger-than-expected draw on US inventories, while traders are also looking towards today’s OPEC+ meeting. The API reported a draw of more than 4m barrels for last week, with EIA figures today expected to show a draw of around 2.5m barrels.
OPEC’s meeting today with allies should be simple – agree to raise output by 400k bpd as they have already set out the schedule through to December. Delta has increased downside risks for oil demand but prices have stabilised around $70 and the physical market remains tight even if speculative sentiment rolled over in July and August. Note WH Smith seeing encouraging signs of much stronger demand in Travel though still some way to go to get back to 2019 levels.
Also looking at the crypto space, particularly COIN, after the SEC boss Gary Gensler said crypto platforms need to be regulated ahead of his testimony before the European Parliament later today.
On the tape today – US ISM manufacturing PMI called at 58.5 but we will be looking for weakness in sentiment and, of course, inflation pressures.
Cryptocurrency update: BTC slides as China intensifies mining crackdown
Bad news for Bitcoin. Earlier Chinese efforts to limit crypto mining have turned into a full-scale purge, hitting BTC prices with a significant body blow.
Bitcoin tumbles as China puts the squeeze on crypto mining
China has intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining operations sending Bitcoin reeling.
As of Monday 21st June, BTC was trading for around $32,000 – some $32,000 lower than the $65,000 highs seen in April. Just last week, Bitcoin had climbed to around $40,000, but China’s efforts to curb mining activity has stunted recovery.
Authorities in China’s key crypto mining provinces are following Inner Mongolia’s lead by banning the energy-hungry practice. China has major climate change goals, so limiting mining for digital tokens from energy consumption chains is part of the strategy to reduce its CO2 emissions.
Every year, crypto mining globally consumers more energy than Sweden.
China is not content with limiting or halting mining operations. In May, the government moved to ban financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions. Authorities also warned investors against speculative crypto trading.
The hash rate, the rate at which new Bitcoin tokens are minted, has dropped considerably with these latest measures. Bitcoin tokens are already scarce, it’s partly what gives them value, but authorities moving against miners, and kicking them out of China, is the real issue here.
China’s authoritarian stance is not unexpected – it’s a government that thrives on control of pretty much every industry – but it fits into a wider cautionary attitude displayed by regulatory bodies and governments worldwide.
We’ve heard Governor Bailey of the Bank of England speak out against cryptocurrencies, for example. Regulators in Thailand, India, and Turkey have been mulling over full-on bans too. Retail crypto trading is unavailable for UK customers.
While institutional support from banks and corporations like Tesla continues to mount, it’s being met by stiff resistance from governments.
How can Bitcoin recover? No doubt miners will be setting up shop elsewhere. El Salvador has an ambitious plan to turn itself into Central America’s crypto mining hub, harnessing the geothermic power of volcanos to run its mining operations. Will we see a spike in El Salvador-sourced tokens?
Bitcoin has been struggling to regain its massive April gains across May and June. It looks like its path to recovery just got longer.
Over 90% of UK financial advisors would avoid cryptocurrency
A survey of UK independent financial advisers (IFAs) undertaken by Opinium reveals 93% would never recommend investing in cryptocurrency to their clients.
A further 91% said they would be concerned if they were investing in such assets.
Retail clients are unable to trade digital tokens in the UK anyway, but this is still an interesting development. According to Opinium, crypto’s inherent volatility and close regulatory scrutiny turn IFAs against cryptocurrency investing.
Only a third of those surveyed said they had noticed an increase in interest regarding crypto trading and investing.
A new crypto unicorn emerges
A new unicorn, a tech firm valued at a minimum of $1bn, has emerged in the cryptoverse.
Amber Group (AG), an Asian crypto trading and technology firm, is the latest subject of venture capitalist interest, as they continue to pour capital into the space.
The Group dubs itself as “an integrated crypto financial services firm that offers 24/7 services ranging from market making to asset management and structured products”.
It passed the $1bn mark after a successful investment round raising $100m from China Renaissance, with participation from Tiger Brokers, Tiger Global Management, and other new investors. Its existing investors, such as Pantera Capital, Coinbase Ventures, and Blockchain.com have also joined the round.
Michael Wu, Co-Founder and CEO of Amber Group, says the company now accounts for 2%-3% of total trading volumes in the crypto spot and derivative market. AG’s cumulative trading volumes have doubled from $250bn since the beginning of the year to over $500bn as of June 2021.
“We have been profitable since inception, and with growing revenues across all business lines, we are now annualizing USD 500m in revenues based on January to April 2021 figures,” Wu said in an announcement.
La settimana che ci aspetta: In primo piano i ricavi di Apple e Tesla, la riunione della FED e il PIL degli Stati Uniti
Questa settimana c’è un sacco di carne al fuoco. Si parte con la Fed, anche se non si prevedono grandi cose. Tuttavia, le prospettive relative al PIL negli Stati Uniti sono ottimistiche, proprio mentre sono in arrivo gli indicatori di fiducia dei consumatori.
Altrove, verranno comunicati i dati PMI manifatturieri cinesi dopo 13 mesi di crescita continua.
Esamineremo anche un altro round di utili, mentre la stagione dei verbali di Wall Street prosegue con Apple, Facebook, Tesla, Alphabet e Microsoft, che dovrebbero fornire le loro cifre trimestrali.
La riunione della FED: nessun cambio rilevante in vista
L’America sta gradualmente tornando alla normalità. Il lancio del vaccino sta continuando, le persone stanno tornando al lavoro e a godersi il tempo libero, le restrizioni ai blocchi si stanno allentando e l’economia sta crescendo.
“E’ visibile l’apertura dell’economia, si vedono passeggeri che salgono sugli aeroplani e clienti che tornano nei ristoranti”, ha affermato il presidente della FED Jerome Powell in una recente intervista all’Economic Club. “Penso che stiamo entrando in un periodo di crescita più rapida con una maggiore creazione di posti di lavoro, e questa è una buona notizia”.
Quindi, cosa significherà tutto ciò per la decisione sui tassi della FED di questa settimana? Il FOMC si riunisce questa settimana tra le speculazioni che l’attuale strategia “soldi facili” potrebbe non essere quella giusta.
Con tre accordi di stimolo a pompare più liquidità nell’economia e tassi ai minimi storici, qualcuno ritiene che stiano risuonando i minacciosi tamburi di una possibile guerra inflazionistica. Tuttavia, non è probabile che vedremo modifiche di rilievo questa settimana, e nessun cambiamento è previsto per i tassi almeno fino al 2023; allo stesso modo gli acquisti di obbligazioni continueranno al ritmo attuale almeno fino alla fine di quest’anno.
Powell ha definito i criteri per un importante cambiamento di politica:
- Una ripresa efficace e completa del mercato del lavoro
- L’inflazione al 2%
- L’inflazione sopra il 2% per un periodo di tempo sostenibile
Finora non si è verificato nemmeno uno di questi fattori. Ciò nonostante, il numero degli occupati sta migliorando. Il tasso di disoccupazione è sceso al 6% con gli ultimi nonfarm payroll. La liquidità extra offerta dagli accordi di stimolo di Biden potrebbe anche far aumentare i prezzi dei beni di consumo. Le condizioni per un cambio di tasso sono in fermento.
Tuttavia, durante la conferenza stampa del FOMC non c’è da aspettarsi un improvviso cambio della linea politica. Da qui in poi, il percorso sarà lineare.
Il PIL trimestrale degli Stati Uniti è destinato a salire grazie alla ripresa dell’economia
Con l’economia statunitense che riprende vita, le previsioni del PIL statunitense per il primo trimestre sono elettrizzanti.
Nel quarto trimestre del 2020 la crescita del PIL è stata rivista al rialzo dal 4,1% al 4,3% poiché i consumatori statunitensi hanno speso i loro soldi di stimolo. La spesa dei consumatori è stata il fattore principale, ma altre aree di investimento delle imprese stanno favorendo un’impennata dell’economia. Le esportazioni sono cresciute del 22,3%. Sono aumentati anche gli investimenti delle imprese in proprietà intellettuali, scorte di magazzino e alloggi residenziali.
Tutto molto bene, ma la vera impennata potrebbe non essere ancora iniziata. Le stime per il PIL del primo trimestre del 2021 sono eccezionalmente elevate.
La FED di Atlanta prevede un sostanzioso aumento dell’8,3% nelle sue ultime stime sul PIL del 16 aprile. In questo caso il fattore trainante è il reddito personale. A gennaio, la ricchezza delle famiglie è aumentata di 2 bilioni di USD, parallelamente ad un aumento della spesa del 2,4%. Assieme agli altri fattori in gioco, come l’aumento dei nonfarm payroll, la spesa dei consumatori e la produzione industriale, ecco svelati gli ingredienti per una sostanziale crescita del PIL.
Sono in corso di emissione ulteriori assegni per gli stimoli al reddito personale. Con il proseguimento delle vaccinazioni e l’apertura di ulteriori settori alla spesa individuale, è probabile che la crescita del PIL aumenterà. La vera sfida, quindi, sarà sostenere questa crescita.
La fiducia dei consumatori statunitensi può rimanere alta?
Sembra molto probabile: a marzo la fiducia dei consumatori ha toccato il massimo annuale, e da allora le cose sono solo migliorate per quanto riguarda vaccini, riaperture e stimoli. Dato il modo in cui stanno andando le vaccinazioni e l’economia, lo stesso si verificherà probabilmente anche ad aprile.
Diamo un’occhiata ai dati di marzo per valutare il sentiment di aprile. Il mese scorso, i consumatori erano ottimisti riguardo al mercato del lavoro. Si sentivano entusiasti per la revoca delle restrizioni alle piccole imprese. Il pensiero di denaro extra a pioggia grazie agli assegni di stimolo sta risollevando l’umore.
Articoli di grande valore come automobili, case ed elettrodomestici sono nelle liste della spesa dei consumatori statunitensi nel futuro prossimo, poiché i risparmi accumulati e il denaro extra del governo stanno aumentando il potere di spesa.
In termini di punteggio, il sondaggio del Confidence Board è cresciuto di 19,3 punti raggiungendo quota 109,7 a marzo. Si tratta del picco massimo da un anno a questa parte, e il rimbalzo più alto dall’aprile del 2004.
L’umore a marzo è stato buono. Accadrà lo stesso in aprile?
L’incide PMI manifatturiero cinese: il settore potrà riprendersi?
I dati sull’indice PMI manifatturiero della Cina vengono pubblicati questa settimana, proprio mentre il paese vede un aumento della ripresa economica.
L’indice di marzo ha mostrato una crescita rispetto ai numeri di febbraio, passando da 50,6 a 51,9. Anche se la crescita è ancora storicamente bassa per la produzione cinese, una lettura superiore a 50 indica che il settore è ancora in espansione. In effetti, l’indice PMI ha mostrato letture in crescita per 13 mesi consecutivi.
La capacità di produzione è stata azzerata durante il Lunar Festival, ma poi è ritornata più forte di prima. Ciò è in parte responsabile della crescita dell’indice PMI, ma ci sono fattori più importanti in gioco. E cioè, il recupero dell’economia a livello globale.
Gli ordini sono in aumento, il che significa che gli stabilimenti cinesi sono a pieno regime. I pacchetti di stimolo statunitensi alimentano una maggiore domanda di beni di consumo: un’ottima notizia per i proprietari di fabbriche cinesi. Inoltre, gli ordini nazionali e internazionali di macchinari come gli escavatori stanno contribuendo a sostenere la crescita del settore.
Le prospettive future sono sostenute da grandi piani di spesa all’estero. Il gigantesco piano infrastrutturale di Joe Biden, se dovesse essere approvato, verrà osservato avidamente dai produttori cinesi di macchinari e di materiali da costruzione. C’è profitto da avere negli Stati Uniti.
Secondo l’Ufficio nazionale di statistica cinese, la Cina è sulla buona strada per un primo trimestre eccezionale. La crescita del PIL ha raggiunto il record del 18,3%, a seguito di un’impennata economica che supera di gran lunga pur ottima crescita degli Stati Uniti.
Sebbene le prospettive a breve termine siano incoraggianti, restano interrogativi sulla sostenibilità. Le esportazioni, vera e propria benzina per il motore manifatturiero cinese, sono aumentate complessivamente del 38,7% nel primo trimestre del 2021, ma questi numeri straordinari sono stati leggermente mitigati dal calo dell’attività di esportazione tra febbraio e marzo. Di sicuro questo sarà un motivo di preoccupazione, ecco perché sarà interessante da osservare il rilascio dei dati sugli indici PMI di questa settimana.
Ci attende una settimana piena di tecnologia per la stagione degli utili
Wall Street si prepara per un’altra raffica di utili questa settimana. Come sempre nella stagione degli utili, i rapporti stanno arrivando velocemente.
Questa settimana gli utili si concentreranno particolarmente sulla tecnologia. Sono in arrivo infatti le relazioni di Apple, Amazon, Facebook e Tesla. In particolare, sarà interessante Tesla, anche solo per vedere l’impatto che avrà avuto la sua decisione di spendere miliardi in Bitcoin sui suoi dati finanziari. Le relazioni precedenti suggeriscono che quest’anno abbia realizzato più profitti grazie alle criptovalute che con la vendita di automobili.
I dati finanziari di Apple arrivano dopo l’evento di lancio dell’azienda nel 2021. Sono stati lanciati un colore nuovo di zecca per l’iPhone 12, e inoltre uno sgargiante arcobaleno di tonalità per l’iMac, gli aggiornamenti di Apple TV e altro ancora, ma l’attenzione è tutta concentrata sulle vendite dell’iPhone 12. Dal momento che sei smartphone su dieci venduti nel primo trimestre sono iPhone, Apple potrebbe vivere un altro trimestre da record.
Esamineremo anche i guadagni azionari delle major petrolifere ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, TOTAL e Chevron, che probabilmente non saranno colossali come quelli di Apple. ExxonMobil afferma che la ripresa dei prezzi del petrolio significa che le cifre potrebbero essere migliori del previsto, ma all’orizzonte potrebbe esserci una perdita agghiacciante da 800 milioni di USD a causa del Big Freeze del Texas. Vedremo perdite più pesanti per le major?
Di seguito riportiamo un riepilogo dei verbali più importanti di questa settimana.
I principali dati economici
|Mon 26-Apr||9.00am||EUR||German IFO Business Climate|
|Tue 27-Apr||Tentative||JPY||BOJ Outlook Report|
|Tentative||JPY||Monetary Policy Statement|
|Tentative||JPY||BOJ Press Conference|
|3.00pm||USD||CB Consumer Confidence|
|Wed 28-Apr||All day||All||OPEC-JMMC Meeting|
|2.30am||AUD||Trimmed Mean CPI q/q|
|1.30pm||CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m|
|1.30pm||CAD||Retail Sales m/m|
|3.30pm||USD||US Crude Oil Inventories|
|7.00pm||USD||Federal Funds Rate|
|7.30pm||USD||FOMC Press Conference|
|Thu 29-Apr||2.00am||NZD||Final ANZ Business Confidence|
|1.30pm||USD||Advance GDP q/q|
|1.30pm||USD||Advance GPD Index q/q|
|3.00pm||USD||Pending House Sales|
|Fri 30-Apr||2.00am||CNY||Manufacturing PMI|
|9.00am||EUR||Germany Prelim GDP q/q|
I principali rapporti sugli utili
|Mon 26-Apr||Tesla||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Vale||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Canadian National Railway Co.||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Philips||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Tue 27-Apr||Microsoft||Q3 2021 Earnings|
|Alphabet (Google)||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Visa||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Novartis||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Texas Instruments||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Starbucks||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|HSBC||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|GE||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|3M||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|AMD||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|BP||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Mondalez||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Chubb||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Capital One||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Wed 28-Apr||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Apple||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|QUALCOMM||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Boeing||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Moody’s||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|NOVATEK||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Spotify||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Ford Motor Corp||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Thu 29-Apr||Amazon||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Samsung||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|MasterCard||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|China Construction Bank||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|McDonald’s||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Royal Dutch Shell||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Bank of China||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Sony||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|Caterpillar||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|TOTAL||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Airbus||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|S&P Global||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Gilead||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Sinopec||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|BASF||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Baidu||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Equinor||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Fri 30-Apr||Alibaba||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|ExxonMobil||Q1 2020 Earnings|
|AstraZeneca||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|BNP Paribas||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Colgate-Palmolive||Q1 2021 Earnings|
How you can invest in emerging markets
Emerging economies can offer investing and trading opportunities you may have missed. As such, you might want to consider investing in emerging markets to diversify your portfolio. Here’s how to do it.
Investing in emerging markets
What are emerging markets?
Emerging markets (EMs) are simply economies that are becoming more involved with the global market as their prosperity and GDP grows. They usually share, or are starting to show, characteristics common with developed economies.
That means they will have some liquidity in local debt and equity markets, increasing trade volumes and foreign direct investment, and internal development of domestic financial and regulatory institutions, and stock exchanges.
How are EMs different to developed markets?
While they are on track to reach the same levels of economic complexity as their developed peers, there are some differences that set emerging markets apart from their developed peers:
|Characteristic||Developed economy||Emerging economy|
|Industrialisation||Developed nations tend to have already heavily industrialised and have transferred into service-led economies.||Emerging markets tend to rapidly expand their industrial base.|
|Growth||Growth in developed economies is often slow but steady.||Emerging economies’ GDP growth is usually higher-than-average.|
|Demographics||Population growth has slowed in most developed markets while the middle class has been firmly established. GDP per capita tends to be high.||Emerging markets usually have rapidly growing populations and a developing middle class, however GDP per capita is lower than the developed average.|
|Currency||Developed market currencies are less volatile than their emerging counterparts and are easily exchangeable.||Currencies in emerging markets are more volatile. Exchange rate mechanisms are being developed to discourage citizens from sending cash overseas and encouraging FDI.|
|Commodities||Developed economies are not as vulnerable to swings in commodity prices.||Many emerging markets are dependent on commodities for their economic prosperity, thus are susceptible to price swings.|
One of the key takeaways here is rapid growth but high volatility. Take Russia for instance. Its economy is intrinsically linked to oil & gas.
40% of government revenues come from its hydrocarbons industries. While it has prepared measures to encourage financial investment, such as localisation deals for car manufacturers and oil & gas equipment producers, its economy is still highly susceptible to oil price volatility.
PwC forecasts the Emerging 7, i.e. the most prominent emerging economies, will experience annual average growth of around 3.5% between 2016 and 2050, well ahead of the G7’s forecasted growth of 1.6%.
Which countries are considered emerging markets?
Developing economies are found across the globe, but if you’re looking to invest in emerging markets, you may want to start with the Emerging 7. These are seven countries identified by PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2006 as future global economic powerhouses, as a counterpoint to the traditional Group of Seven (G7) economies that dominated the 20th century (US, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Japan & Italy).
The Emerging 7, and their current GDPs, are:
- China – $14.9 trillion
- India – $2.59 trillion
- Russia – $1.72 trillion
- Brazil – $1.36 trillion
- Mexico – $1.32 trillion
- Indonesia – $1.08 trillion
- Turkey – $761.4 billion
Certainly, these countries grab the emerging economy headlines – especially China. Investors are increasingly looking at how to invest in China because it’s predicted that the country will overtake the US as the world’s preeminent economic power at some point this century.
How to invest in emerging markets
There are plenty of options open to invest and traders who are looking at investing in emerging economies.
As ever, it’s very important to do thorough research if you plan on trading and investing. Doing thorough analysis on stocks, emerging market ETFs, and so on will help you pick stocks or assets suitable for your investment or trading strategy.
Historically, returns from EM equities have been relatively low. According to JPMorgan, EM equity returns have only averaged +3.6% per year from 2010 to 2019. But 2020 was different. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time since 2017 (EM gained +18.5% versus the S&P 500’s +18.4%).
Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the above rise could be encouraging for investors looking to put capital into emerging economies.
So, how can you get involved? You may wish to invest in companies based in emerging markets. Taking South Korea as an example, Samsung and Hyundai are viable, internationally renowned large caps helping power the South Korean economy.
In China, Alibaba, Tencent, and Geely Motors are all tech-related stocks that have performed well over the past year.
Emerging markets investors may also use ETFs. Exchange traded funds group together stocks and assets into a single fund, giving investors exposure with lower risk.
On our Marketsx trading platform, for instance, we offer the Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets High Dividend ETF (DEM). This draws its constituents from a Wisdom Tree index that measures the performance of EM stocks that offer high dividend returns.
It is composed of mainly Russian and Chinese firms, including Rosneft and the Industrial Commercial Bank of China, but also includes other big hitters like Brazil’s Vale, one of the largest mining companies in the world, Taiwanese plastics giant Formosa Plastic Group.
You may also consider bonds. Bonds are fixed-income instruments representing a fixed amount of debt. They are most often issued by governments or corporations, paying regular interest payments until the loan the bond is drawn from is repaid.
There are several different varieties of bond, so you could potentially create a diverse portfolio of just bonds issued by governments of emerging economies. Bonds are generally considered a more secure investment than equities too.
Risks of investing in emerging markets
One important thing to remember is volatility is more likely in emerging economies than developed ones. Economic conditions may change more suddenly in an emerging market than a developed one, so bear that in mind when investing. You may end up losing more than you initially invested.
We spoke earlier about how emerging markets are often more susceptible to commodity price swings. Russia is a good case study here. In 2015, the oil price dropped significantly.
As mentioned earlier, Russia relies heavily on oil & gas for revenues and the performance of its hydrocarbons industry has major ramifications for its economy as a whole. During this time, the value of rouble effectively halved, making Russia less attractive for oil & gas investment and development for international firms.
It’s these type of market trends you have to fully consider when investing in emerging markets. However, the purpose of investing in emerging markets is to trade higher risk with potentially higher rewards.
If you are planning on investing in emerging markets, it’s a good idea to ensure you have a diverse portfolio of stocks and assets. You may wish to include an emerging market ETF, plus several stocks from one country, a mixture of stocks from one country and so on.
Diversifying your portfolio is way to help you mitigate risk. You’re aiming to lower the effects of under or negatively performing assets. Gains in one asset may help offset losses in another. An example diversified portfolio, based around EMs, might look something like this:
- 20% developed economy stocks
- 22% foreign stocks from emerging markets
- 22% bonds from emerging markets
- 22% bonds from developed markets
- 9% commodities
- 5% long-term investments
This example portfolio draws heavily on stocks from EMs, but it also balances that out with capital allocated to equities and bonds in developed markets. In theory, any losses caused by market volatility in emerging economies could be offset by steady performance from the developed economies.
Investing vs trading: what’s the difference?
Before investing in an emerging market, it’s important to know the difference between investing and trading as distinct practices.
The goal of investing is to gradually build wealth over an extended period of time through the buying and holding of a portfolio of stocks, baskets of stocks, mutual funds, bonds, and other investment instruments. You hold onto them in the hope they will grow in value over the long-term.
Trading involves more frequent transactions, such as the buying and selling of stocks, commodities, currency pairs, or other instruments. Many trading services, such as ours, run using products like CFDs or spread betting.
Unlike investing, you do not own the underlying asset here. Instead, you are trading on its price movements. CFD trades use leverage, so you can get exposure to a stock or market for the fraction of the initial cost it would take to invest. However, because you are trading on margin, your losses can be increased too.
Both practices require you to mitigate risk as best you can. Trading and investing are risky and can result in capital loss. Always do your research and due diligence prior to committing any funds, and always ensure you can afford any losses you may occur.
La settimana che ci aspetta: Nonfarm payroll, OPEC e indici PMI
L’OPEC+ si riunisce questa settimana in un contesto di calo dei prezzi del petrolio. Verranno pubblicati anche i dati relativi ai nonfarm payroll. Marzo sarà un altro mese forte o la crescita di febbraio è stata solo una tantum? Nel frattempo, Stati Uniti e Cina si confrontano nella settore manifatturiero con i rilasci di importanti dati relativi agli indici PMI. Al debutto anche Deliveroo, una delle IPO più attese del Regno Unito.
La riunione dell’OPEC+ – ci saranno più tagli o verrà mantenuta l’attuale rotta?
In cima all’agenda dell’OPEC ci sono stati sempre due punti fondamentali: sostenere i prezzi del petrolio durante il blocco e un ritorno alla normalità. Tutto ciò avrà una rinnovata importanza nella riunione di aprile, perché i prezzi del petrolio greggio sono scesi dal loro massimo di 70 USD nelle ultime due settimane.
Nel momento in cui scriviamo i prezzi sono aumentati dai loro minimi da sei settimane a questa parte, nonostante l’EIA abbia segnalato volumi di stoccaggio superiori alle attese nei magazzini statunitensi. Il WTI viene scambiato attorno ai 60 USD e il Brent attorno ai 63 USD.
È molto probabile che i tagli rimangano tali e quali. L’OPEC e i suoi alleati hanno tolto dalla circolazione il 7% dell’offerta pre-pandemia e il presidenza dell’Arabia Saudita si è impegnata ad effettuare un ulteriore taglio di 1 milione di barili al giorno.
Tuttavia, la chiave potrebbe essere l’UE.
Anche l’introduzione del vaccino, o la sua mancanza, ha esercitato pressioni sui prezzi del petrolio in Europa. Le lotte sulle forniture dietro le quali si celano motivazioni politiche, e nuove domande sull’efficacia del vaccino di AstraZeneca, hanno contribuito a determinare un effetto sulla domanda di petrolio, mentre gli speculatori hanno liquidato le posizioni lunghe sulle quali avevano scommesso in riferimento ad una maggiore domanda di viaggi nel periodo estivo.
I ritardi dei vaccini e la una nuova ondata di nuovi casi di Covid-19 in tutta Europa hanno portato a lockdown più severi. Francia e Germania, ad esempio, hanno annunciato altre restrizioni, così come la Polonia. Il Regno Unito ha anche affermato di aver dovuto rallentare il proprio programma di vaccini, uno dei migliori al mondo, a causa dei problemi legati alla fornitura dei vaccini stessi.
Per il secondo trimestre del 2021, l’EIA prevede che i prezzi del Brent saranno in media di 64 USD al barile, con la media in calo a 58 USD al barile nella seconda metà del 2021, poiché stima che nei prossimi mesi emergeranno pressioni al ribasso sui prezzi man mano che il mercato petrolifero troverà un nuovo equilibrio.
La prossima mossa dell’OPEC sarà cruciale se vorrà aiutare a sostenere i suoi membri con prezzi migliori nel corso del 2021.
Nonfarm payroll americani – occhi puntati sul mercato del lavoro dopo la crescita di febbraio
Venerdì saranno pubblicati i dati relativi ai nonfarm payroll statunitensi. Dopo lo scoppiettante mese di febbraio, il mercato seguirà attentamente il rapporto di marzo, sperando di raccogliere sempre più segnali che indichino che gli Stati Uniti stanno rapidamente tornando ad un buono stato di salute economica.
Gli impiegati sono aumentati di 379.000 unità a febbraio, superando di gran lunga le aspettative di 210.000 unità, contribuendo così ad abbassare il tasso di disoccupazione al 6,2%.
I malconci settori del tempo libero e dell’ospitalità hanno registrato il maggior numero di assunzioni, con 355.000 nuovi posti a febbraio. Anche se questo dato questo comprende cinema, hotel, musei, resort e parchi di divertimento, è stato il settore della ristorazione a sostenere l’industria del tempo libero e dell’ospitalità in termini di nuovi posti di lavoro aggiunti, con 285.900 unità.
Probabilmente il pacchetto di stimoli varato da Joe Biden sta favorendo la creazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Nell’ambito del pacchetto da 1,9 bilioni di dollari del Presidente, le piccole imprese stanno ricevendo ulteriore sostegno al fine di a) sostenere i posti di lavoro esistenti e b) portare ad eventuali nuove assunzioni o riassunzioni. Ciò include: 25 miliardi di USD per ristoranti e bar; 15 miliardi per le compagnie aeree e altri 8 miliardi per gli aeroporti; 30 miliardi per i trasporti; 1,5 miliardi per Amtrak e 3 miliardi per la produzione aerospaziale.
Grazie al pacchetto di stimoli, altre società hanno frenato i programmi di licenziamento. Ad esempio, United Airlines aveva programmato 14.000 licenziamenti a febbraio. Secondo una notizia del Washington Times, questa decisione è stata cancellata con l’ingresso di nuovo denaro governativo nelle casse della linea aerea.
Le autorità di trasporto locali, in particolare la Metropolitan Transportation Authority di New York, riceveranno miliardi, cosa che permetterà loro di proteggere i posti di lavoro. Ad esempio New York riceverà 6 miliardi di USD per fermare licenziamenti e tagli ai servizi.
Naturalmente, tutto questo per proteggere principalmente i posti di lavoro esistenti. Sarà interessante vedere quale sarà l’effetto di tutto ciò sui nonfarm payroll di marzo. Dal momento che le piccole e medie imprese si aspettano più fondi governativi, il numero dei posti di lavoro potrebbe crescere, poiché gli stimoli potrebbero consentire la ripresa delle assunzioni.
Indici PMI manifatturieri di USA e Cina
La prossima settimana i due giganti dell’economia globale pubblicano i loro ultimi dati sugli indici PMI manifatturieri.
Partendo dagli Stati Uniti, abbiamo già visto l’indice manifatturiero statunitense di IHS Markit per marzo, che mostra un altro mese positivo per la produzione industriale del paese. Tale indice è salito a 59 punti a marzo dai 58,6 di febbraio, il che indica che l’attività nel settore manifatturiero ha continuato ad espandersi a un ritmo sostenuto. Questa lettura è risultata leggermente inferiore alle aspettative del mercato di 59,3, ma nulla di cui preoccuparsi.
La prossima settimana sono attesi anche i dati degli indici PMI dell’Institute of Supply Management (ISM). Secondo l’ISM, il mese di febbraio è stato eccezionale per la produzione, con l’indice PMI che ha raggiunto i suoi massimi da tre anni a questa parte, a 60,8 punti. Se consideriamo i dati IHS come indicatore, probabilmente si assisterà ad una crescita costante, e non ad un’altra strepitosa impennata come quella registrata a febbraio. Tuttavia, negli Stati Uniti si stanno registrando segnali incoraggianti relativi ai livelli della produzione industriale.
Con il nuovo anno, l’economia degli Stati Uniti è in uno stato di salute migliore. Gli stimoli hanno messo più soldi nelle tasche dei consumatori e sappiamo già che ne arriveranno ancora di più. Il fatto di riuscire a pompare nuovamente quella liquidità nell’economia potrebbe essere il motivo per cui la produzione si trova in una posizione così favorevole. Anche il lancio del vaccino non sta andando male negli Stati Uniti, cosa che sta anche rafforzando una rinnovata fiducia in tutto il paese.
D’altra parte, a febbraio la produzione cinese ha subito un rallentamento, secondo il rilascio di marzo del Caixin PMI, il principale indicatore della produttività delle fabbriche del paese. Questa frenata continuerà anche ad aprile?
Stando ai dati dell’ultimo Caixin PMI, l’indice è sceso dai 51,5 punti di gennaio ai 50,9 di febbraio, il valore più basso degli ultimi 9 mesi. Una lettura superiore a 50 indica che la crescita è ancora in corso, ma il fatto che stia calando suggerisce una contrazione.
Perché? Il riacutizzarsi dei casi interni di Covid-19 e il rallentamento della domanda globale di beni cinesi importati hanno messo a dura prova il settore produttivo cinese. Inoltre, le aziende hanno licenziato i lavoratori senza dimostrare alcuna fretta nel coprire i posti vacanti con nuove posizioni.
Gli analisti si aspettano ancora un anno forte per la Cina, poiché è stato uno dei pochi paesi a mostrare una crescita economica reale nel corso del 2020 al culmine della pandemia. Tuttavia, il rallentamento della produzione di febbraio evidenzia una certa fragilità nella ripresa economica cinese in corso. Avremo un quadro più chiaro quando verrà pubblicato l’indice PMI di marzo.
IPO di Deliveroo – Una data da ricordare
Deliveroo lancia la sua IPO il 31 marzo, anche se il trading libero non sarà disponibile fino al 7 aprile.
Deliveroo ha fissato una fascia di prezzo per le sue azioni compresa 3,90 4,60 GBP per azione, il che implica una capitalizzazione di mercato stimata tra 7,6 e 8,8 miliardi di GBP.
La società emetterà 384.615.384 azioni (escluse eventuali azioni in eccesso) e ha in previsione di raccogliere 1 miliardo di GBP dalla sua IPO. Anche se si considera la parte più bassa della forbice di questo intervallo, si tratterebbe comunque della più grande quotazione a Londra da un decennio a questa parte, e la più grande d’Europa in quest’anno.
Amazon ha una partecipazione del 15,8% nella società, ma prevede di vendere 23.302.240 azioni per un valore compreso tra 90,8 107,2 milioni di GBP, a seconda di dove si collocheranno i prezzi dell’IPO. L’amministratore delegato e fondatore Will Shu venderà 6,7 milioni di azioni, che gli lasceranno una quota residua del 6,2% della società, per un valore pari a circa 500 milioni di GBP.
I principali dati economici di questa settimana
|Tue 30 Mar||3.00pm||USD||CB Consumer Confidence|
|Wed 31 Mar||2.00am||CNH||Manufacturing PMI|
|1.15pm||USD||ADP Nonfarm Employment Change|
|3.30pm||USD||US Crude Oil Inventories|
|Thu 1 Apr||All Day||All||OPEC+ Meetings|
|3.00pm||USD||ISM Manufacturing PMI|
|3.30pm||USD||US Natural Gas Inventories|
|Fri 2 Apr||1.30pm||USD||Average Hourly Earnings m/m|
|1.30pm||USD||Nonfarm Employment Change|
I principali rapporti sugli utili di questa settimana
|Mon 29 Mar||Sinopec||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|Tue 30 Mar||Bank of China||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|Carnival||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Wed 31 Mar||Micron||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Walgreens||Q2 2021 Earnings|
As a China spending boom looms are these global stocks must buys?
Analysts at the Bank of America has chosen luxury fashion stocks moving from one to watch to investor must-buys as Chinese spending boom is forecast.
Millions of Chinese consumers are rushing to buy high-end fashion items and accessories online. BofA expects two stocks to benefit from this growing trend. China’s middle class already outnumbers the entirety of the US’ population, totalling approximately 700 million people. Their habits may point towards which stocks are must picks now and in the near future.
“China is the most exciting opportunity in online luxury,” BofA wrote. The bank expects Chinese shoppers to spend $48.9 billion buying luxury goods online in 2025 – four times more than was spent in 2020.
So which companies are set to benefit most from this boom? According to the George de Mendez-led analysts at the Bank of America Farfetch and Richemont are in the frame to potentially make some big gains.
The British-Portuguese brand has been dubbed a “big deal” by the bank in the past, and now it’s set to become a major juggernaut, according to BofA analysis, thanks to Chinese shopping habits. Farfetch has established a partnership with China’s e-commerce juggernaut Alibaba, and will start selling via the Tmall Luxury Pavilion, as well as on designer outlet platform Luxury Soho. Through the deal that will help Farfetch get access to a potential market of 780 million customers.
Swiss luxury conglomerate is BofA’s second pick. The Cartier owner has pumped money in Farfetch, and has also partnered with Alibaba to launch a new entity: Farfetch China.
Richemont’s Yoox Net-A-Porter online fashion business already has a partnership with Tmall and is showing impressive growth in the jewellery segment as highlighted by Bank of America.
Partnering with Alibaba is crucial here. For Western firms, it can be difficult to crack the Chinese market. As well as the economy featuring protectionist measures favouring domestic companies, Chinese consumers prefer to shop online or via so called “super apps”. It’s pretty much essential to partner with app owners to get access to markets.
With an Alibaba partnership, Farfetch gets access to its massive user base. Chinese customers will be will subsequently get access to broader selection of designer labels than what other platforms currently offer.
Farfetch currently has 3,500 brands available including Gucci, Off-White and Balmain. Comparatively, the Tmall Luxury Pavilion only stocks about 200 designers.
Yoox Net-A-Porter and Farfetch are competitors, but the Chinese deal has “multiple advantages” for all of the players, according to the BofA analysts.
Richemont already has access to the Chinese market via its Net-A-Porter Tmall Luxury Pavilion store, but the joint venture with Farfetch will give it access to a wider audience.
The renewed focus on e-commerce follows a year in which consumers were forced to shop for luxury apparel and accessories online during coronavirus lockdowns.
Bank of America said the online luxury sector had an “exceptional” 2020 and expects the global market to grow to 100 billion euros in 2025, 15 billion euros more than previous forecasts.
What about Chinese stocks?
Some Chinese stocks have great potential. The country’s rapid economic growth is nothing short of breath-taking, and several stocks have been identified as potential must buys.
Alibaba Group Holdings Limited is the largest retailer and e-commerce company in China. Alibaba operates some of the largest shopping platforms like Taobao and the aforementioned Tmall.
Very few of those investing in Chinese stocks haven’t heard of Alibaba. It is currently trading at a price over $266 per share, thanks to its cloud division becoming profitable for the first time according to its latest earnings call. Its core commercial revenues grew 38% year-on-year, Alibaba reported in January 2021, with total quarterly revenues clocking in at $33.88bn, beating market expectation.
JD is one of the biggest B2C e-commerce service providers in China and in the world in general. It’s also one of Alibaba’s chief competitors. It was represented in 85 hedge funds om 2020, with a total hedge fund holding value of $13.57bn.
Tencent is one of China’s internet kings, operating QQ, the country’s largest social media platform, as well as popular messaging services Weixin and WeChat. Over 1 billion users use Tencent’s messaging services each month, and it boasts over 500m social media users too.
Recently, its shares tumbled after nearing a $1 trillion valuation, but quickly bounced back, gaining over $230bn following listings, as mainland investors hoover up Tencent contracts on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Growing proliferation of smartphone users in China, thanks to its massive middle class, and higher internet penetration rates, make Tencent a very attractive prospect to Chinese and international traders.
How to invest in China
China’s a divisive place for investors, but its enormous economic growth suggests it holds great potential. Want to invest in China? Here’s what to watch out for.
Here’s how to invest in China
China’s rapidly growing economy
The first thing that attracts those who want to invest in China is its economy. The next 100 years are very much shaping up to be the Century of the Dragon, thanks to China’s rapid economic and industrial growth. Since the late 20th century, Asia’s foremost economy has been expanding at a rate of knots.
China was the only major economy to expand in 2020; a year when the Covid-19 pandemic stunted growth in economies around the world, particularly the developed markets in the US and Europe. During 2020, Chinese GDP grew 2.3%.
The prospects are bright for continued Chinese expansion, and that’s why many choose to invest in China. Fitch recently upgraded its 2021 outlook for Asia’s largest economy, predicting annual GDP growth of 8% – very impressive in a year when the global economy is forecast to contract 4.4% by Fitch estimates.
Here are some Chinese key stats:
- GDP – $14.9 trillion (2020)
- GDP per capita – $10,389 (2020)
- Population – 1.4 billion est. (2020)
China’s economic transformation
Initially, China’s massive growth was down to manufacturing with its old nickname as the Workshop of the World. A vast assortment of goods, from construction materials and heavy machinery, to children’s toys and everything in between, is cranked out of China’s factories and sold to markets globally. But, while exports remain huge, China is the largest exporter in the world, it is gradually shifting its economic focus, transitioning away from its export economy, and looking internally to drive growth.
Shifting demographics, rapid urbanisation, and wage growth mean China has the largest middle class in the world, with estimates suggesting total middle-class population sits at 707 million people. For context, Europe’s total population stands at about 741 million. Some 50% of China’s GDP now comes internal consumption, driven by this massive social group.
Coupled with that high number of middle-class consumers are China’s protectionist measures meaning a lot of Western-produced products are not available on the Chinese market. Those that are tend to be more luxurious or high-end items, like designer clothes, smartphones, and luxury cars.
Domestically produced alternatives essentially have free reign there. One only has to look at the Chinese automobile sector and notice how many Chinese marques have models that look very similar to BMWs, Audis, and Mercedes to see the protectionist measures in action.
Technology is a major focus for Chinese industry now. Designing and manufacturing more sophisticated technology is all part of the Chinese government’s “Made in China 2025” plan – a policy that aims to move towards sophisticated industries and services, doing away with the old Made in China export model it was previously based on. The fourth industrial revolution is very much on in China, with robotics, 5G internet, and AI all being developed there, alongside electric vehicles and battery tech.
China could overtake the US in the next two decades if present trends continue, which may power Chinese equities on a strong upward swing.
JPMorgan has predicted they will continue to deliver close to double-digit annual returns over the next 10-15 years. Using the past five years’ performance as an indicator, MSC China All Shares has delivered an average annual return of 10.34% (although past performance is not indicative of future performance).
International criticism of Chinese economic expansion
Economic growth is one thing, and certainly attractive to those who want to invest in China, but not everyone is so enamoured with China.
The Trump-led US-China trade war is the perfect example of that. To curb Chinese global influence, the US and allies have been trying their best to limit Chinese access to key markets and have been calling into question what they perceive as negative business practices backed by the Chinese government.
The US has been the most vocal critic of Chinese business. For instance, it believes the practice of China’s government subsidising domestic firms so they can compete on a global scale, and leveraging state-owned enterprises, is not in line with international trading standards.
There have also been allegations of intellectual property and tech theft thrown at China. It seems any foreign company wanting to do business in china has to form a joint venture with a Chinese firm with virtually no exceptions. The foreign firm also has to share IP and tech with its Chinese partner – something the US claims gives China license to steal secrets for their own use.
Could it be insecurity on the US part? Its status as the world’s largest economy and political power may be being eroded by China’s continued growth. If China is protectionist, then surely the US too. After all, Trump’s trade war was all about protecting US jobs and companies, even if that didn’t necessarily pay off.
It should be pointed out that many of the world’s most developed economies are out for themselves too, having historically benefited from access to free markets, or their own relatively shady dealings around the globe.
But there are moral objections at play here too.
The case of the Uighur population’s ongoing plight has rightly been met with international condemnation, yet no sanctions on trade have really been put in place to halt that Chinese policy. China’s clampdown on Hong Kong has also earned it worldwide condemnation. The conditions in Chinese factories have been heavily called into question too, as much of the economic growth comes from very cheap labour working in less than savoury environments.
If you’d like to invest in China, it’s advised you do some with careful thinking. If you are comfortable with the above, by all means continue, but be warned.
China can be risky
All investment and trading is risky, but sometimes Chinese opportunities might present greater risk than in other markets.
As of December 2020, the Shanghai Index was actually performing down across the last five years, and only marginally up across the decade. Compared with US exchanges like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs, that may take a bit of the sheen off China for investors. That comes despite Chinese equities giving investors double digit returns.
Chinese accounting practices have been called into question too which can cause some stocks to be delisted from international exchanges. In October 2020, sixteen Chinese firms, including supposed Starbucks rival Luckin Coffee, were delisted from US exchanges after investigators found many discrepancies in the Chinese company’s accounts.
But China’s growth cannot be overlooked. It is also still classified as an emerging market. You have to remember US and European markets and stocks have been steadily developed over centuries. China is still playing catch up.
Pros & cons of investing in China
- Rapid economic growth
- Emerging market
- Rising global status
- Potential for double digit returns on equities
- Authoritarian government
- Rapidly changing demographics
- Historic stock market underperformance
- International criticism of business practices
Chinese stocks to watch
If you want to invest in China, you may consider adding the below Chinese stocks to your portfolio:
Alibaba Group Holdings Limited is the largest retailer and e-commerce company in China. Alibaba operates some of the largest shopping platforms like Taobao and Tmall. Very few of those investing in Chinese stocks haven’t heard of Alibaba. It is currently trading at a price over $266 per share, thanks to its cloud division becoming profitable for the first time according to its latest earnings call. Its core commercial revenues grew 38% year-on-year, Alibaba reported in January 2021, with total quarterly revenues clocking in at $33.88bn, beating market expectation.
JD is one of the biggest B2C e-commerce service providers in China and in the world in general. It’s also one of Alibaba’s chief competitors. It was represented in 85 hedge funds om 2020, with a total hedge fund holding value of $13.57bn.
GDS Holdings is a datacentre technology provider focussed mainly on the domestic market. 2020 has been a year of sustained growth for GDS with revenue growing 43% year-over-year in Q3 2020 to hit $224.6m. As one of the fastest growers in its sector, GDS’ organic sales also completely surpassed 2019 totals by Q3.
Baidu owns China’s search engine. It’s China’s Google equivalent, generating revenue from its advertising sales, as well as developing advanced technologies. On the face of it, Baidu appears to be struggling, with 2020’s ad revenues being a bit of a disappointment, but that doesn’t really tell the whole story, as analysts forecast 15% revenue growth across 2021. Importantly, the stock as risen 90% in the last year too, making it one to watch for investors.
Tencent is one of China’s internet kings, operating QQ, the country’s largest social media platform, as well as popular messaging services Weixin and WeChat. Over 1 billion users use Tencent’s messaging services each month, and it boasts over 500m social media users too. Recently, its shares tumbled after nearing a $1 trillion valuation, but quickly bounced back, gaining over $230bn following listings, as mainland investors hoover up Tencent contracts on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Growing proliferation of smartphone users in China, thanks to its massive middle class, and higher internet penetration rates, make Tencent a very attractive prospect to Chinese and international traders.
China is one of, if not the biggest, vehicle markets on Earth and Geely Motors is the largest of its domestic carmakers, selling over a million cars annually. While the bulk of its sales are restricted to China, it has been enjoying success exporting vehicles to the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. Geely’s long term goal is to expand its EV offering, as well as investing in foreign marques like Volvo and Daimler and it even has eyes on Aston Martin.
EV builder Nio, Fast Food firm Yum! Holdings, tutoring service TAL Education Group, and video streaming platform BiliBili Inc.
Picking the best Chinese stocks for you will depend on your preferences, your trading strategy, and so on. But make sure you do your research before you choose. Be sure to use fundamental and technical analysis on stocks to ensure you’re informed as best as can be before committing any capital. Also be sure to invest only if you can afford any potential losses.
Investing vs trading Chinese stocks
There is an important distinction between investing and trading Chinese stocks you need to know. You can do both with markets.com, but you will need to open a couple of different accounts, as we have different platforms for different functions.
Investing is the act of buying shares and owning them in the hopes they rise in price. To invest with us, you will need a Marketsi account. This gives you access to our Share Dealing platform*, and access to thousands of stocks including major and minor Chinese companies.
Some Chinese stocks are listed on US exchanges. If you’re in the UK, and wish to trade these, you will need to complete a W-8BEN form. They’re required by the US Inland Revenue Service to confirm that you’re not a resident of the United States for tax purposes.
Trading is done using derivatives like stock CFDs. You do not own the underlying asset, instead trading on the asset’s price movements. That means you can take a long or a short position and still make a profit. However, it does mean your losses could be higher too as you are trading using leverage.
To trade, you will need a Marketsx account.
We can help you invest in China and Chinese stocks.