Trump suggests delaying US Presidential Election, US GDP better than expected

US President Donald Trump has tweeted that the US Presidential Election 2020 should be delayed beyond November. US stock market futures paid little attention to the comment, but the Dow was 300 points in the red anyway after US growth and jobs data. Trump claimed, without providing any evidence, that November’s ballot would be “the most inaccurate & fraudulent election in history”.

Can Trump delay the US 2020 Presidential Election?

The president has long taken issue with mail-in ballots, and has claimed before that they pose a high risk of fraud. Many states have already taken the decision to open mail-in ballots to all voters for safety reasons given the huge number of coronavirus cases in the United States.

As Helen Thomas pointed out in our earlier election coverage, «recent electoral results have indicated that expanding vote-by-mail favours Democrats, as the easy access to the ballot has increased turnout in their favour».

US GDP better than forecast, but jobless claims rise

Markets were little cheered by the latest US economic data, despite a smaller than expected decline in Q2 GDP. The economy shrank by -32.9% between April and June, compared to forecasts of a -34.1% drop. The decline is still the largest drop in output since the Second World War.

Jobless claims figures published alongside the latest US growth data pointed to a small uptick in claims. 1.434 million Americans filed for jobless benefits in the week ending July 25th, up from 1.416 million the previous week. The four-week average has risen from 1.360 million to 1.368 million, and the number of continuing claims rose from 16.2 million to 17 million – a much larger increase than had been forecast.

Stocks edge further into negative territory

European stocks and US futures slowly drifted further into negative territory after the data, with Wall Street going on to open around -1% lower. Equities had been languishing in the red ever since this morning’s European data, which showed a larger-than-expected drop in Q2 GDP for Germany and a rise in Eurozone unemployment.

At the time of writing the DAX was down -4%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 was trending -3% lower.

Joe Biden’s Veepstakes: How does the choice of running mate affect his chances?

Joe Biden will be hoping that his choice of running mate in early August ensures he capitalises on his current momentum in the polls. The stakes are heightened by his advanced age: if he wins, Joe Biden will be the oldest President ever inaugurated. Amidst reports that he is considering serving for a single term, and his own admission that he sees himself as a “transition President”, his Vice-Presidential pick will be within short distance of a historic Presidency, which explains why many candidates have been intensely jockeying for the job.

Biden will need somebody who is ready to assume the Presidency and help him govern, as well as a candidate who is broadly palatable for different wings of the Party, not to mention plugging his enthusiasm gap. Even more crucially, Biden’s vice-presidential nominee will serve as a way to appeal directly to specific demographics.

  • One possible strategy would be an attempt to win back the Rust Belt by targeting a demographic of specifically white, male, working class Obama-Trump voters in key places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
    • Candidates like centrists Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) would indicate at an attempt at this.
  • Given the current racial climate and the role a slump in black turnout played in Hillary’s 2016 defeat, many in the party, like Amy Klobuchar (who removed herself out of contention for the job) and Jim Clyburn, have argued that Biden needs to pick a woman of colour.
    • There are four African-Americans being seriously vetted: while Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) is the favourite, Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms are also under serious consideration.
    • Harris has been emerging as the obvious choice; she has taken the lead on policing issues in the Democratic Party to meet the moment, has consolidated broad support in the Party, and has the experience that Joe Biden indicated he was looking for.
  • A third possible route for Joe Biden would be an attempt to unite the two wings of the party and reach out to young voters and progressives by choosing Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

Each choice is not without its pitfalls.

  • For example, choosing Rep. Val Demings, a former Police Chief with a shaky record on police brutality, could backfire by dissuading many young African Americans and progressives.
  • Mayor Lance Bottoms is widely unknown and has a mixed record dealing with the coronavirus in Atlanta.
  • While Sen. Duckworth has a high profile on military issues, her lack of charisma and profile might make her a less appealing candidate.
  • Warren has emerged as a policy leader on coronavirus and the economic crisis, but her antagonistic relationship with Wall Street and the Democratic establishment would destabilize markets and alienate some centrist or conservative Biden voters.
  • Harris, on the other hand, has a difficult relationship with the progressive movement, and gained widespread notoriety by attacking Joe Biden’s record on race, which she will then awkwardly be tasked to defend.

In sum, Joe Biden will need to consider the downfalls and support that might get alienated by his choice as much as the support he has to gain.

While the political pressures surrounding his choice are intense, polling and polling history suggest that public opinion is rarely moved by running mate decisions. Historical polling records show that running mates rarely affect voting intentions or the presidential candidate’s favourability ratings; a recent poll shows that 54% of registered voters say his pick will have “no impact” on their vote. Nevertheless, selecting a popular vice-president could help boost turnout, which Biden will certainly require if he is to ensure all those who currently support him actually turn up to vote for him on the day.

Recent polling indicates that the most popular candidates aren’t necessarily the ones that fit the political imperatives mentioned above. For example, only 6% of black voters in swing states, and 9% of all registered swing state voters, stated Joe Biden should choose a black running mate. Instead, polls have consistently shown Sen. Warren to be the most popular running mate pick to unite the party, especially among the key constituencies of young voters, progressive activists, and perhaps more surprisingly, (young) black voters.

This suggests that Elizabeth Warren would be the best choice for reassuring and reuniting the party – even as she is the one most likely to frighten the markets. Coupled with Biden’s current commanding polling lead, the choice of Vice President in a few weeks’ time might be the trigger for a financial markets crisis to join the twin health and economic crises already on the Presidential candidates’ plates.

US Election2020 fast update: Biden ramps clean energy plans

  • Biden plans $2tn clean energy investment
  • Clean energy stocks may prosper under Democrat clean sweep
  • Potential risks?

Clean energy stocks were among yesterday’s best gainers as Joe Biden, presumptive US Democrat president, outlined a $2tn green energy and infrastructure spending plan. Traditional oil companies also rebounded, with Chevron and Exxon up over 3% and Schlumberger, EOG Resources and Halliburton both adding over 5% as Biden appeared to steer clear of any fracking bans.

Biden plans «irreversible path» to net-zero emissions

First the numbers – it’s more money, faster with a more ambitious target than in the primaries after – it has all the hallmarks of Bernie Sanders on it. The $2tn over 4 years exceeds the $1.7tn over ten imagined in Biden’s primary campaign.

Biden outlined plans to set the US on an “irreversible path» to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with an ambitious goal to build a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035. There is a clear break being made with the oil & gas sector implicit in this, but crucially we did not hear an aggressive take on fracking or proposals to restrict US shale.

The focus was on job creation in new industries, not on going after the oil & gas sector per se, albeit the proposals clearly imply a far more aggressive shift away from fossil fuels than a Trump administration would pursue. As much as it cemented the Democrats as the green party, this is an election pitch to voters in some key swing states who may have lost their jobs.

Meanwhile, the Democrat proposals would also involve upgrading millions of commercial and residential properties over 4 years to increase energy efficiency, with among other things the installation of solar panels, which is a potentially huge growth area (Sunrun, Solaredge, FirstSolar).

We also note a positive policy position on EV (Tesla, Nikola) with plans to invest in 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations. Biden’s goal is to combine going green with economic recovery: to Build Back Better. He is promising to create 1 million new jobs in the auto industry, domestic auto supply chains, and auto infrastructure, from parts to materials to electric vehicle charging stations, which will depend on the repurposing of the auto industry from ICE to EV.

How will oil and gas sector workers react in key states?

Whilst Biden is playing a strong hand here in tying jobs and economic recovery to the green economy, killing two albatrosses with one very large boulder, there are of course risks to this strategy, notably among the millions of workers in the oil & gas sector in states like Pennsylvania and Texas.

Biden boasts of creating more than 250k jobs “immediately to clean up local economies from the impacts of resource extraction”, but they may see Trump as a better guarantor of their jobs when it comes to the crunch.

Broadly the announcement appeared to be positive for the S&P 500 Energy sector, which rose 3.43%. Our Biden20 Blend clean energy constituents, selected as potential gainers from a Democrat clean sweep, notched broad gains, with some solar energy names taking off after Biden’s announcement.

 

Company Ticker % daily move
Nikola Corporation NKLA -1.5%
Nextera Energy NEE +2.46%
Brookfield Asset Management Inc BAM +2.93%
Tesla TSLA +1.32%
First Solar FSLR +9.91%
Terraform Power TERP +4.59%
Brookfield Renewable Partners BEP +3.92%
Sunrun RUN +12.26%
SolarEdge SEDG +8.74%
Enphase Energy ENPH +6.8%
Ormat Technologies ORA +0.48%
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure AY -1.95%
Plugpower PLUG +4.09%
Nextera Energy Partners NEP +2.95%

Will Joe Biden crash the stock market?

Will stocks go down with a Biden win and Democrat clean sweep? 

Joe Biden launched his $700bn economic plan by taking aim at Wall Street, banks, the stock market and shareholder capitalism in general. Based on polling data, the stock market will need to better reflect the chance of a Biden presidency combined with a Democrat clean sweep of the House and Senate.

Biden issued a threat to end to the era of shareholder capitalism – the idea that the only responsibility a corporation has is to its shareholderBiden, whose policies would tend to raise taxes and regulation risk for corporate America, added: During this crisis, Donald Trump has been almost singularly focused on the stock market, the Dow and the Nasdaq. Not you. Not your families.” 

The argument about taxation is central to the thesis, as explained by Goldman Sachs in a recent note. The bank noted the US used to have one of the most uncompetitive corporate tax regimes in the OECD at 37% vs the average 24%. Donald Trump changed that with Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) 2017… 

Under Trump the effective tax rate paid by median S&P 500 company fell by 8 percentage points, from 27% to 19%, which boosted EPS in 2018 by 10%. 

Since 1990, declining effective tax rates have accounted for 200bps of the 400bps increase in net profit margins and 24% of total S&P 500 earnings growth, according to GS.  

But Joe Biden could undo the cuts and lower earnings for the average S&P 500 company. Under his plans statutory federal tax rate on domestic income would go up from 21% to 28%, reversing half of the cut from 35% to 21% instituted by the TCJA, according to the Tax Foundation.

GS notes that a Biden presidency could also result in a doubling of the GILTI tax rate on certain foreign income, a minimum tax rate of 15%, and an additional payroll tax on high earners.  Biden could increase capital gains tax, which could push investors to sell down stock holdings before it is introduced. 

According to GS this would cut the S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2021 by roughly $20 per share, from $170 to $150. So, the average EPS would fall 12% just at the time that earnings need to rise to support valuations. The S&P 500 traded at a forward earnings multiple of about 23x in June – the highest since 2001 

Regulation risk would also rise on the expectation that a Democrat-controlled Congress and White House would impose tighter restrictions on corporate behaviour, such as buybacks, and increase the cost of doing business by raising the minimum wage and employer contributions. Finally, higher taxes on the rich leaves less cash to invest in stocks.

US Election 2020: What happens to the US dollar with a Democrat clean sweep?

There are various permutations of results from this year’s US elections, but polling data increasingly indicates a strong chance of a Democrat clean sweep of the House, Senate and White House.

Obviously, the question for forex traders is what this may mean for the USD.

Traditionally the US dollar performs well in election years. The dollar index (DXY) has only fallen in two of the last 12 elections, with the drop in 2012 only marginal.

According to Morgan Stanley, the key is not who wins but whether you get gridlock in Washington or not. The bank sees USD strength from a Democrat ‘blue wave’, that is a clean sweep of the House, Senate and White House. But they also see USD strength from a Republican full house, as unlikely as that seems now based on the polls. The US dollar would be more likely to soften if Donald Trump wins but the House and/or Senate are controlled by the Democrats.

Pandemic changes everything

Historical patterns may not prove much use, however, due in large part to the massive amount of fiscal and monetary easing that has been carried out not just by the US but also its G10 counterparts. This has created an unusual backdrop to the election and means the waters FX traders are swimming in are murkier than usual.

According to researchers at Sweden’s SEB, the dollar rose in the 100 trading days after nine of the past 10 elections from 1980 to 2016. Democrat wins produced a 4% rally on average, whilst a Republican victory saw a gain of 2%.

So, can we expect the dollar to rally after the election no matter what the outcome? It’s clearly a lot more complicated, not least because of the unique macro-economic backdrop created by the pandemic.

Indeed, foreign exchange analysis from investment banks UBS and Crédit Agricole suggests precisely the opposite. One argument is that Trump’s policies of fiscal stimulus and protectionism have supported the dollar, so a Democrat clean sweep could pull these legs from under the USD.

However, there are not many signs of the Democrats taking a more lenient approach to China, in fact both sides seem to be vying to be seen as tougher than the other on China. Therefore, trade disputes and battles of intellectual property rights will, in all likelihood, persist.

On the fiscal side, it’s hard to see much difference – both camps back massive stimulus to support the economy post-pandemic, whilst the Federal Reserve is very clearly prepared to keep rates at zero for as long as necessary. The usual rules of the game in terms of how the dollar responds to fiscal and monetary policy inputs have to a certain extent been thrown out by the pandemic.

Donald Trump has been a little wayward in his messaging around the dollar’s strength – it’s normal for presidents to underscore the idea that a strong dollar equals a strong USA. The ‘strong dollar policy’ has been in place for at least 20 years and initially Trump was seen moving away from this stance.

Whilst he has been more resolutely in the strong dollar camp lately, there is always the risk that post-pandemic the president again calls for a weaker dollar to make the country more competitive.

Euro matters

Relative economic performance and relative expectations of interest rate differentials will be what matters. Will the euro rebound with a fiscal stimulus package? Will the pound stabilise after Brexit?

The euro matters most when we look at this other side of the dollar equation as EUR has an outsized weighting in DXY – more than 50%. So, when we look at USD, or DXY, strength we are also to a large extent looking at EUR too.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has like the Fed responded to the pandemic with a massive increase in its QE programme. Efforts on the fiscal side have been slower, but in spite of concerns among some member states about the nature of stimulus funding, there seemed to be a broad agreement on the need for support.

Crucially right now the more ‘dovish’ policymakers are the more it supports the currency – the worry is that not enough support risks growth, but also creates pressure in bond markets, leading to a widening of spreads between bunds and peripheral yields. The ECB seems to be in ‘whatever it takes’ mode, though we note German resistance to participating in asset purchase programmes. The risk really lies on the fiscal side.

Failure to agree to the fiscal measures being discussed as part of the EU budget talks would be negative for the currency. Whilst an agreement is the base case, it may not deliver fully on its promise and may be a watered-down version to the €750bn rescue fund put forward by the European Commission.

US Presidential Election: Not Red, Not Blue, but Green to win?

With a recent poll showing that 14% of registered voters see climate change as the most important challenge facing the country, victory in November may well hinge on the success or failure of the respective parties to own this issue. For context, such a figure implies that around 30 million voters could cast their ballots this Autumn with the environment at the forefront of their thinking – that’s two to three times as many as in 2016.

Of those who care about climate change, one-third describe themselves as ‘very progressive’, suggesting that it is the Democrats who have the most to gain from grasping the initiative on the environment.

Voters focus on green policies, but does Biden?

Despite this potential vote-grabber for Biden, the issue features only 25th on a list of policy proposals on the Biden 2020 website. His plan has three main avenues of execution:

  • Reinstating Obama-era regulation through executive order
  • Investing $1.7 trillion in green energy and jobs through an act of Congress
  • Leading international treatymaking efforts on the world stage.

That’s a long way from the $16 trillion investment into the “Green New Deal” that Bernie Sanders was promising. Herein lies the dilemma which will ultimately decide Democratic fortunes this year – how can they appeal to the middle whilst also ensuring that their base turns up to vote? It looks like climate change isn’t a hill for them to die on.

Rebranding climate issues for rust belt voters

The electoral system also explains why the climate features so far down Biden’s list. The rust belt is a crucial cluster of states for both parties when it comes to grabbing electoral college votes, and many of these rely heavily on so-called ‘dirty industries’ for employment and prosperity. Pennsylvania is the main example of this, where Trump secured victory by less than 45,000 votes in 2016. As the third largest coal-exporting state in America, voters in this area may not react well to Biden’s green vision, allowing Trump to take home 20 crucial electoral college votes.

There is however an opportunity to re-brand green credentials as a wider vote winner. The climate issue is ripe for conversion into an anti-China policy, thanks to their role as global polluters in chief. With approval of China down to -40% in the wake of coronavirus, and Trump likely to leverage this sentiment in his own favour, the environment offers the Democrats a line of attack which can be employed without turning off their core base of support.

How will America’s Climate Policy shift after the US Presidential Election?

There are three main scenarios that could play out in the US Presidential Election.

Scenario One: Trump Wins a Second Term

With or without a Republican Congress, Pres Trump would likely continue to use executive orders to cut back the environmental regulations that were instituted by the Obama administration. So far, Trump’s repeals have included the moratorium on federal coal leasing and the extent to which federal agencies must take account of the environmental impact of their actions.  

  • This would benefit fossil fuel companies

Scenario Two: Biden beats Trump, and the Democrats gain Congress

In this instance, the Democrats would have carte blanche to deliver on all of Biden’s campaign pledges, including the $1.7 trillion of government spending. In the wake of coronavirus, huge government investment will be expected, providing the perfect cover for such a policy. However, with a majority only guaranteed for two years, and other objectives clearly taking priority, it is unclear whether a Pres Biden would deliver the entirety of his environmental agenda, even in the greenest of scenarios.

  • This would benefit companies that can boost their green credentials
  • It would harm “dirty energy” businesses

Scenario Three: Biden beats Trump, but the Democrats fail to capture the Congress

Here, Biden would have to rely on the power of executive orders and the office of the Presidency to implement parts of his climate proposal. As easily as Trump repealed them, Biden could reinstate Obama’s regulations. Also, he could use America’s status on the world stage to influence treatymaking and catalyse future climate accords. However, the $1.7 trillion investment in green energy and jobs is not possible without congressional approval, leaving the former VP with a half-delivered promise.

  • This would be like half a heart transplant: the economic damage of regulation would be incurred, but without investment elsewhere to compensate

Despite any green rhetoric, the truth is that the environment simply isn’t a priority for the Biden campaign, and this is unlikely to change once in office. A New Deal might be in the offing to respond to the huge economic downturn, but it’s unlikely to be a very Green one.

How will the US-China relationship define the Presidential election?

Trump knows that antagonising China is a dangerous game. But in the run up to the election, it’s also a political necessity.

Before the coronacrisis, there was already a perfect storm of economic and security disputes brewing between the US and China. Covid-19 compounded all the existing issues as well as adding a whole new dimension to the rift. Tension is escalating on all fronts.

Economic

Phase one of the trade deal is dead. The promises made by China – purchasing at least $200 billion in US exports over two years – looked unrealistic from the get-go. But the virus means meeting phase one’s targets will be downright impossible. Throw in that China is already buying more from competitors (its imports from Brazil are up 35% on May 2019) even in an economic downturn, and any revival of the Trade Deal before the Election look dead and buried.

Security

The tech war has entered a period of unprecedented turbulence. Trump continues to affirm that Huawei threatens national security, upping the ante in May when a new rule was issued barring Huawei and its suppliers from using American technology.

Foreign policy

The Trump administration is reportedly exploring several measures that could punish China for its handling of the virus, including suing the Chinese government for reparations and cancelling US debt obligations to the country. Meanwhile, China has ordered its state-owned enterprises to stop purchases of US farm products after the US threatened to withdraw its special status treatment for Hong Kong – itself a response to China’s new security law for the territory.

The President was aiming to run his campaign based around strong economic performance, and failing that, a successful response to the pandemic. As both these options become increasingly difficult to achieve, China must serve as the scapegoat on which Trump can pin his administration’s failings.

Usefully for Trump, the American people aren’t too fond of the Chinese right now either. A Pew Research Center poll from April suggests that Americans have increasingly negative views of the country with two-thirds now holding an unfavourable opinion towards China.

This sentiment is widespread across a range of groups in America, which is unusual in an ever more polarised electorate.

A Republican ad campaign has been launched proclaiming, “One nation deserves the blame: China”, while the America First Action SuperPAC says it’s spending around $10 million on ads in swing states condemning Biden over China.

It’s rare for two thirds of Americans to reach such a strong consensus so inevitably both the incumbent and his challenger are attempting to burnish their anti-China stripes.

Each also believes they can use China to score personal points against the other candidate.

  • Trump is quick to criticise “Beijing Biden” and his son’s alleged profiteering from Chinese business.
  • A recent Biden campaign ad reads, “Trump rolled over for the Chinese. He took their word for it.”, and goes on to cite some of Trump’s early remarks praising China’s pandemic response.

This fight isn’t without its risks however.

  • In May, Biden’s aforementioned ad sparked outcry from representatives of Asian American Organizations who accused the Democratic candidate of feeding the rise of anti-Asian racism in the US.
  • For Trump, a new economic cold war would imperil any incipient return to growth not to mention leave it isolated when big global discussions take place. Hence the recent decision by the US Commerce Department to allow American companies to collaborate with Huawei on 5G technology standards.

As we know though, Trump is no stranger to risky political moves. With winning the election his top priority and alternatives running out, the President will hold onto the anti-China card for dear life to avoid being trumped by Biden.

The battle of ‘who’s tougher on China’ shows no signs of relenting. Both candidates will be forced to push harder and harder to have the last word on an issue which has galvanised such a strong reaction among the American public.

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