Stocks rally after Fed tapers, BoE hike no slam dunk

“We wouldn’t want to surprise markets”

Tapering, so what? Market reaction to the long-awaited start of the Federal Reserve’s trimming of monthly bond purchases has been muted but positive. Stocks in Europe and US are at record highs – tapering is not tightening. The Fed managed to spend months carefully guiding the market to expect this move, by which it will take 8 months to reduce its $120bn-a-month QE programme, at a rate of $15bn-a-month; it’s not about to let market expectations for an interest rate hike get out of control. Still the Fed is still behind the market on this one and could be forced in to raising rates sooner than it expects. Jay Powell urged patience and caution, and seems to have largely pulled of the trick of not tying the tapering timeline to a provisional lift-off date for rates.

“Our decision today to begin tapering our asset purchases does not imply any direct signal regarding our interest rate policy. We continue to articulate a different and more stringent test for the economic conditions that would need to be met before raising the federal funds rate,” Powell said.

Both the dollar and stocks rose, with Wall Street achieving yet another record high and European stocks marking fresh record highs again this morning. Shorter dated bond yields were steady, US 2yr yields up a fraction at 0.47%, whilst the bigger move was seen further out the curve with 10s hitting 1.6%. That would be the kind of reaction Powell wanted – as far from the taper tantrum of the past as you can imagine.  As he said in the press conference, the Fed “wouldn’t want to surprise markets”.

What we did see was the Fed trying to shift the goalposts a bit on the inflation narrative. That’s important since it indicates it’s not rushing to hike to combat inflation, and in no hurry to raise rates. He explained that “transitory” for the Fed does not mean “short-lived” but rather that “it will not leave behind permanently – or very persistently higher – inflation”. This takes us into the arena of ‘long transitory’, which is a convenient intellectual get-out for the Fed without it needing to admit it got the inflation call wrong in the first place. On the labour market, Powell said there is “still ground to cover” to reach “maximum employment”.

Bank of England

Today the Bank of England is expected to raise rates, but that does not mean it will. It’s going to be a tough call as the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee are not singing from the same hymn sheet. There are possibly three main outcomes from today’s vote – hiking 15bps and no attempt to push back on market expectations for future rate rises; a hike with a pushback against expectations for further hikes; or no hike. The ‘no hike’ outcome could also be split into one in which the Bank signals readiness to move next month, or one without such a signal.

As noted a couple of weeks ago in our preview, whilst some are worried about inflation, it’s all that clear if the hawks have the votes.

The MPC is relatively evenly split in terms of hawks and doves, so it is not abundantly clear if the recent messaging from some members – albeit including the governor – matches with the votes.

Bailey has sounded hawkish, and we know Ramsden and Saunders are itching to act. Huw Pill, the new chief economist replacing Andy Haldane has also sounded hawkish, though less so than his predecessor.

Commenting after UK inflation expectations hit 4% for the first time since 2008, he said: “The rise in wholesale gas prices threatens to raise retail energy costs next year, sustaining CPI inflation rates above 4 per cent into 2022 second quarter.” We place him in the ‘leaning hawkish’ camp.

On the dovish side, Silvana Tenreyro is highly unlikely to vote for a hike next month, calling rate rises to counter inflation ‘self-defeating’.

Deputy governor Broadbent said in July that he saw reasons for the inflation tide to ebb. The spike in energy prices since then could lead him to change his mind but for now we place in the ‘leaning dovish’ camp,

Rate-setter Haskel said in May he’s not worried by inflation, and in July said there was no need to reduce stimulus in the foreseeable future. He goes in the Dovish camp with Catherine Mann, who said last week that she can hold off from raising rates since markets are doing some of the tightening already. “There’s a lot of endogenous tightening of financial conditions already in train in the UK. That means that I can wait on active tightening through a Bank Rate rise,” she said.

That leaves Jon Cunliffe somewhat the swing voter. In July he stressed that inflation was a bump in the road to recovery.

Dovish Leaning dovish Centre Leaning hawkish Hawkish
Tenreyro

Mann

Haskel

Broadbent Cunliffe Pill Saunders

Ramsden

Bailey

We look to see whether the recent spike in inflation and inflation expectations has nudged the likes of Cunliffe, Pill and even Broadbent to move to the Hawkish camp. It seems unlikely that governor Bailey would have pointed the market towards quicker hikes if he did already have a feeling for the MPC’s views on the matter. He had ample opportunity to push back against market expectations but didn’t, which favours a dovish hike today, which is likely to be negative for sterling – though we note the dollar is topping at recent resistance and could pull back.

Sterling looks bearish still and little the BoE can now do for it with the hikes priced in – only disappoint. Near-term resistance offered by the 20-day SMA at 1.37, bearish MACD crossover still in play calling for retest of the 61.8% retracement around 1.3560, which was the mid-Oct swing low the provided the base for the rally through to Oct 21st.

GBPUSD Chart 04.11.2021

Inflation

Inflation is here and here to stay, which is probably why the Bank will ultimately raise rates. Yesterday’s services PMI indicated that while companies reported a sharp and accelerated rise in business activity during October, operating expenses and prices charged by service providers increased at the steepest rates since the survey began in July 1996.

The IHS/Markit report noted (emphasis mine): “Rising costs for energy, fuel, raw materials, transport and staff all contributed to increased prices charged across the service sector. Moreover, the rate of output charge inflation reached a fresh survey-record high in October. Service providers again noted that strong demand conditions and constrained business capacity had resulted in the swift pass through of higher input prices to clients.”

Stocks flat ahead of Fed taper announcement, Tesla stutters

Stock markets were mixed at the open in Europe as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve announcement later. A rather flat start to the session saw the FTSE 100 test the 7,250 area before easing back towards the flatline around 7,275. The DAX was similarly flat as a pancake after 30 mins of trading – clearly investors are sitting on their hands until the Fed later.

Wall Street closed a new record high for a fourth-straight session as earnings continue to underpin confidence in fundamentals. It appears that fears about inflation eroding margins are so far unfounded. Whilst markets may have concerns about the Fed’s tapering and eventual tightening, these seem to have been well telegraphed thus far with the Fed chasing to catch up with bond markets and not the other way around.

Oil slackened as API inventories were soft – stocks rose by 3.6m barrels last week, well ahead of the 1.5m expected. EIA inventory data is due later, expected to show a build of 1.9m barrels. OPEC+ meets on Thursday amid calls for it to raise output further. Specifically, there seems to be some pressure coming from the White House as Joe Biden blamed the cartel for higher oil and gas prices, saying in Glasgow that he was reluctant to explain what he would do if OPEC doesn’t increase output – presumably he doesn’t mean kill off investment in US fossil fuels?

Shares in high street bellwether Next were down as the cautious outlook remained despite a very strong performance in the last few weeks. Full price sales in the 13 weeks to the end of October were up +17% versus two years ago. In the last 5 weeks full price sales rose 14%, ahead of the 10% expected. Nevertheless, the company stuck to its Q4 full price sales guidance at +10% and full year profit before tax at £800m.

Although Next continues to perform very well, it remains inherently cautious due to slowing demand, partly due to inflation; as well as the well-worn supply chain issues and labour shortages. The company says pent-up demand will slacken over time and warned that price increases will hurt sales despite consumer finances in decent shape. It also cautioned that while the availability of stock has improved, it “remains challenging, with delays in our international supply chain being compounded by labour shortages in the UK transport and warehousing networks”. Next is always super cautious but continues to deliver strong free cash year after year.

Taper time

The focus today is squarely on the Fed. It’s certain to announce the start of tapering, and push against interest rate hikes. Sounds easy enough but there are details which could affect the market reaction later. The 10yr Treasury yield sits above 1.53% ahead of the Fed statement, whilst 2s are back down around 0.45% having traded above 0.5% for the first time in 18 months in recent days. The dollar index is holding 94 after a stronger session yesterday, though is a tad weaker this morning.

Key questions relate to the pace and timing of tapering, and comments about the path of inflation and jobs from chair Jay Powell.
The Fed is likely to begin tapering its $120-a-month QE programme this month, or potentially wait until Dec. I don’t think this matters a huge amount, though delay could be marginally negative for the dollar and good for risk. It’s the pace of the tapering that really counts as this will determine when bond buying ends and could help shape expectations for when the Fed will begin raising rates. It’s expected that the Fed will reduce asset purchases at a rate of $15bn-a-month, which would mean the taper takes 8 months to complete. However, the Fed could go ahead at $20bn-a-month, ending two months earlier. Markets would likely see $20bn as more hawkish and suggest an earlier rate hike. There is no accompanying dot plot this month, but Powell is likely to reiterate that «a different and substantially more stringent test» is required for interest rates to move up.

Clearly, inflation is proving less transitory than the Fed had originally thought. In his last press conference Powell avoided referring to inflation as being transitory, and recent remarks have generally indicated greater concern about sustained price hikes. If Powell expresses greater concern in Nov than Sep over inflation – which has remained stubbornly high (4% core CPI and 3.6% core PCE are both well above the Fed’s 2% target) – then the market may see this as a tacit acceptance that rates are likely to move higher by the middle of next year. Markets currently forecast a two-thirds chance of a hike by June next year, earlier than current FOMC projections. It’s hard to imagine Powell not sounding more worried – ie hawkish – on inflation.

Overall, today should be fairly straightforward for the Fed and Powell to communicate a taper which has been telegraphed for several months. The problems start to arrive if inflation remains at 4% next year and into the second quarter of 2022.

Electric cars

Electric cars are good, and internal combustion engines are bad, right? Nothing about the lifespan of batteries or the scarcity of rare earth metals or the fact that right now it takes a lot of fossil fuels to charge the batteries … anyway let’s leave all that to the green cops in Glasgow. I am sure they know what is best for us since they usually do.

Anyway, electric car uptake is kind of presumed – it’s just not clear how quickly nor who’s going to win the race. So when a major EV maker seems to get into bed with one of the world’s top car rental firms it is important for the stock of both companies. Tesla stock surged last week and the company hit a $1 trillion market cap for the first time after Hertz announced it was expanding its battery-electric vehicle fleet with “an initial order of 100,000 Teslas by the end of 2022”.

It turns out Tesla has not signed a deal with Hertz to supply the rental firm with 100,000 cars. So, it seems like the rally in Tesla and Hertz shares over the last week or two has been built on a fake news story? Who’d have thought that such a thing could happen in today’s markets…I mean it’s not like Tesla, and Elon Musk, don’t have previous here. Whilst the original statement came from Hertz, it’s not like Musk or anyone else at Tesla refuted it outright when they had the chance. I guess that is what happens when you do not have a public relations team and rely on your CEO’s tweets to deliver corporate messaging.

So, when Musk tweets all innocently yesterday, a full seven days after the Hertz claim, you have to raise an eyebrow at least. In reply to a fan post about the stock price rally, Musk tweeted: “If any of this is based on Hertz, I’d like to emphasize that no contract has been signed yet. Tesla has far more demand than production, therefore we will only sell cars to Hertz for the same margin as to consumers. Hertz deal has zero effect on our economics.”

So, Hertz doesn’t actually need a contract – if Musk is genuine here and Hertz are paying full whack then they can just buy the cars like anyone else would – as such it doesn’t materially alter the fact that Hertz is buying 100,000 Teslas – we just don’t know how or when. Matt Levine makes this point well in his Money Stuff newsletter.

But it does kind of leave you with a sense that they are not playing with the full face of the bat here. Tesla stock is up more than 28% since the Hertz order news broke. There has not been a heck of a lot of other news around the stock so I’d say at the minimum it’s a factor, and probably go as far to say a major one. Analysts got all giddy about the implications for the deal, which is important too. Here’s fanboy Dan Ives of Wedbush: “The Hertz deal we believe will be viewed as a tipping point for the EV industry … We believe this is the biggest transformation to the auto industry since the 1950′s with more consumers heading down the EV path over the coming years.”

Does it matter if it’s a contract or Hertz staffers ordering cars individually? I don’t know, but you could imagine a world close to our own where the SEC thinks that maybe these kind of opaque statements that drive significant increases in stock price valuations amounts to manipulation of some sort, or just carelessness? I don’t think this would be allowed by the FCA.

Yesterday Hertz responded indirectly to the Musk tweet by saying that “deliveries of the Teslas already have started”. The company added: “We are seeing very strong early demand for Teslas in our rental fleet, which reflects market demand for Tesla vehicles.”

Tesla shares fell, Hertz stock trading OTC initially dropped 10% before rallying 7%.

Talking of rental car companies – shares in Avis (CAR) surged in another kind of meme-stock-crazy-type move. The move came as Avis – one of the most talked about stocks on Reddit’s WallStreetBets thread – delivered a record quarterly profit and sales of more than $3bn. Earnings rose to $674 million, or $10.45 a share, in the June-September quarter, up from just $45 million, or 63 cents a share, a year before. Avis closed over 108% at $357, having at one point traded above $545 amid a frenzied day of trading that saw the stock halted on more than one occasion.

Staley out, stocks up ahead of massive test for central bankers

So, farewell Jes Staley. You ran a good investment bank but are not as Teflon-like as it seemed. Back in February 2020, when news of the investigation into his historic links to Jeffrey Epstein broke, I commented how anything relating to the disgraced financier was surely toxic and said Staley should probably go. It was a reputational thing for Barclays and Staley did not have an immaculate record. After the whistleblower incident and KKR thingy with his brother-in-law it seemed the cat was on his last life; it seemed a question of judgment, or lack of it. I said: “It turns out he’s being investigated by the FCA over his known links to Jeffrey Epstein. The board says he’s been transparent enough, so he has their backing. Coming after the whistleblowing fine, it’s looking like the cat may be running out of lives. I wonder if he can survive this.” 

 

Today Barclays says Staley is out. It all hinges on his “characterisation to Barclays of his relationship with the late Mr Jeffrey Epstein and the subsequent description of that relationship in Barclays’ response to the FCA”. It appears his characterisation of the relationship is not exactly how the FCA and PRA see it. The board thought Staley was «sufficiently transparent” to keep his job last year – a statement at the time that already hinted a bit of a rift between CEO and board. Having seen the preliminary findings of the FCA and PRA report, either they think he wasn’t that transparent enough and/or just don’t want a mucky fight with the regulators to distract, since Staley will contest the findings. It should also be pointed out that “the investigation makes no findings that Mr Staley saw, or was aware of, any of Mr Epstein’s alleged crimes, which was the central question underpinning Barclays’ support for Mr Staley following the arrest of Mr Epstein in the summer of 2019”, the statement from the company said. The FCA and PRA simply said they “do not comment on ongoing investigations or regulatory proceedings beyond confirming the regulatory actions as detailed in the firm’s announcement”. Barclays is right to pull the plug now. It probably could have done it earlier. As I said in February last year: “He’s got to go now as he risks tarnishing Barclays’ reputation.”

 

Shares in Barclays fell more than 1% after the announcement, whilst peers rose – Lloyds rallied about 2% and NatWest over 1%. CS Venkatakrishnan, previously head of global markets, will take the reins. A safe pair of hands but we probably need to see a bit more. Today’s release mentions that “the Board has had succession planning in hand for some timewhich if you had Jes Staley as your CEO would have been a prudent step to take.  

 

Stocks are higher in early trade on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 in Europe hitting a record high. The FTSE 100 trades up 0.5% or so amid a generally positive start to the session, the first of the month. Wall Street closed out Friday with its best month since November 2020 as all three major averages hit fresh all-time highs. Bets that central banks will raise rates to fight inflation may have caused a wipe-out in the shorter end of the bond market last week, but the gyrations are not affecting stock markets too much at the moment. Corporate earnings are strong with about 80% of US firms reporting delivering profits ahead of expectations. A slew of key central bank decisions this week has the potential to up-end the sense of calm but so far, we think policy moves are reasonably well telegraphed. Nevertheless, there are lots of questions facing the central bankers this week. 

 

The Bank of England faces a big test of credibility after a series of hawkish messages from key policymakers in recent weeks. As noted a couple of weeks ago, the situation is finely balanced. Senior policymakers like governor Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill have chucked some fairly hawkish words around. Others remain sensitive to what many believe would be a policy mistake in raising rates into a period of economic slowdown and higher taxes. The BoE will be keen to bill any hike as a dovish one that is designed to get ahead of the inflationary impulse and show it means business, but is not about to start an aggressive tightening cycle. It will be about reducing some of the distortions created post-pandemic and the need to act early before inflation expectations are off the leash and inflation itself becomes more persistent. Sterling is struggling to catch much in the way of a lift from the BoE’s apparent hawkishness and now GBPUSD looking to turn lower with a bearish MACD on the daily chart.

 

The Federal Reserve looks set to announce tapering of bond purchases but will be leaning hard on any notion that tapering is tightening. Powell is likely to reiterate that «a different and substantially more stringent test» is required for interest rates to move up. The team sticky and team transient inflation match is still happening, though team sticky is clearly winning easily and the referee should call it off shortly. On Friday data showed US inflation running at its hottest in 30 years – headline PCE at 4.4% and core at 3.6%.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia will need to figure out if it wants to abandon yield curve control. Last week saw a broad bond market selloff that saw the yield on Australian 3-yr paper jump above 1.25%, miles above the 0.1% target. It’s all but given up on this, it seems, though the RBA has still been active in 5- and 7-year paper to drive down yields. The question is whether the ditching of YCC begets a change in forward guidance – does it surrender to market expectations and signal it will likely raise rates before 2024? 

Adelanto semanal: ¿las nóminas no agrícolas darán la vuelta a la tortilla?

Los próximos cinco días nos aguardan importantes reuniones. En el ámbito de los datos, ha llegado el momento de conocer las últimas nóminas no agrícolas. ¿La suerte cambiará para el mercado laboral estadounidense? También tendremos reuniones de bancos centrales en las cumbres del Banco de Inglaterra y la Reserva Federal. La llegada de un nuevo mes trae consigo una nueva reunión de la OPEP y el JMMC.

Nóminas no agrícolas: ¿supondrán un fracaso o un regreso a los buenos tiempos?

Esta semana destaca la publicación de los datos de nóminas no agrícolas (NFP) estadounidenses de octubre.

Los últimos dos meses en el plano laboral de EE. UU. han sido difíciles, puesto que las NFP apenas se han acercado a los niveles previstos en los últimos dos meses. En septiembre, se crearon 194 000 puestos de trabajo, frente a los 500 000 esperados. En agosto, las previsiones auguraban 366 000 puestos de trabajo nuevos. Este mes, se prevé la creación de 720 000 puestos de trabajo.

La creación de empleo es un parámetro clave para decidir sobre la reducción de los estímulos. Aunque aún esperamos que el FOMC anuncie esta reducción el miércoles en su reunión mensual, resulta evidente que el presidente de la Fed, Powell, considera que el mercado laboral aún no se encuentra en la situación en la que debería estar.

Lo que seguramente resultará interesante comprobar, en el corto a medio plazo, es el efecto que tendrá el histórico abandono de puestos de trabajo. En agosto, más de 4,3 millones de estadounidenses dejaron su empleo, algo nunca visto hasta entonces. Existe una multitud de motivos que explican este fenómeno: mayores ahorros, jubilación anticipada, descontento general con el trabajo, etc. Este abandono de puestos de trabajo podría dar lugar a la creación de otros nuevos, lo que supondría un repunte en las NFP, aunque también puede llevar consigo mayor destrucción de puestos de trabajo, como hemos visto recientemente.

Reunión del FOMC: ¿tendremos confirmación de la reducción en las medidas de soporte?

Independientemente de cuál sea el estado del mercado laboral, Jerome Powell afirma que la reducción «sigue su curso».

Como ya hemos comentado, los mercados esperan que la desescalada del masivo programa de compras de activos de EE. UU. dé comienzo en noviembre. Aún estamos esperando una confirmación oficial al respecto, pero esperamos obtenerla en la reunión del FOMC de esta semana.

Actualmente, la Fed compra 120 000 millones de dólares en valores cada mes en el marco de sus extraordinarias medidas de soporte fiscal a causa de la pandemia.

Ante el aparentemente débil panorama laboral y la espiral inflacionista, aún no se prevé que se vayan a subir los tipos. Sin embargo, según Powell, si se empieza a cerrar el grifo de la compra de activos, la Fed podrá tener margen para abordar ambos problemas.

En declaraciones en un encuentro organizado por el Banco de la Reserva de Sudáfrica el pasado viernes, Powell afirmó: «Nadie debería poner en duda que emplearemos estas herramientas para reducir la inflación al 2 % con el tiempo. Al mismo tiempo, consideramos que podemos ser pacientes y permitir que la recuperación se asiente y que el mercado laboral se recupere».

Un par de miembros del FOMC han confirmado que darán su apoyo a la reducción de los estímulos en la reunión de esta semana. Los gobernadores de la Fed Randal Quarles y Christopher Waller se encuentran entre los miembros más conservadores del comité.

«Este mecanismo no debería endurecer las condiciones financieras, ya que muchos de los actores del mercado ya han dado por hecho que se producirá una reducción en los estímulos a finales de 2021», sentenció Waller la semana pasada.

Banco de Inglaterra: subir los tipos o no subirlos, esa es la cuestión

En su reunión de este jueves, el Banco de Inglaterra (BoE) deberá hacer frente a un dilema. El Comité de Política Monetaria (MCP) del banco central se mantiene dividido entre conservadores y moderados, aunque parece que la balanza se inclina más del lado de los primeros.

Pero, ¿habrá una subida de tipos? ¿Es este el momento adecuado para que el BoE se meta en el jardín de los tipos de interés? Pese a la ligera caída del mes pasado, la inflación se mantiene en niveles elevados, y el crecimiento se está estancando.

El gobernador Bailey parece mantener una postura conservadora. A principios de mes, el gobernador del BoE afirmó que el banco tendría que hacer algo para contener la inflación. Una de las herramientas de su kit es la subida de tipos.

Sin embargo, otros miembros de la institución no están tan seguras de la idoneidad de subir los tipos de los mínimos históricos actuales, al menos por ahora. Silvana Tenreyro, una legisladora del BoE, ha indicado que los tipos no se subirán hasta después de Navidad. Silvana, como otros de los muchos miembros más moderados del comité del BoE, considera que la alta inflación es temporal.

El economista jefe del BoE Huw Pill parece que se inclina más por adoptar un sesgo conservador.

En sus primeras declaraciones públicas desde su toma de posesión del cargo, Pill afirmó: «En mi opinión, el equilibrio de riesgos actualmente se inclina hacia la gran inquietud en torno a las perspectivas de inflación, ya que su fuerza actual parece que durará más de lo previsto en un primer momento».

En su reunión de octubre, el MPC votó por unanimidad mantener los tipos sin cambios. Estaremos pendientes de si el conjunto del grupo se mantiene unido o si los conservadores empiezan a dominarlo.

Reunión de la OPEP+: ¿se mantiene el rumbo?

Con la llegada del nuevo mes, tenemos una nueva tanda de reuniones de la OPEP y el JMMC.

La intención de la OPEP+ no es oponerse al sistema. No cabe duda que se ha mantenido fiel a su hoja de ruta en el último par de meses con el aumento estable de la producción en 400 000 barriles diarios al mes.

El cartel ha debido hacer frente a las solicitudes de importantes consumidores de crudo, en particular de EE. UU., para que aumentara aún más la producción. EE. UU. realizó esta petición pese a que atesora millones de barriles de esquisto y podría depender de sus propios recursos, pero ese es otro tema.

Pero siguen en sus trece: la OPEP+ y Arabia Saudí están muy satisfechos con la evolución del mercado del petróleo. Los precios del crudo han aumentado aproximadamente un 50 % interanual en 2021. Además, según Arabia Saudí, se prevé un excedente en 2022.

Ante este panorama, ¿por qué la OPEP y sus aliados deberían realizar cambios? El precio del crudo por barril está en aumento, y estos países dependen de los precios elevados del petróleo para prosperar. Es el caso de Rusia, donde un 40 % de los ingresos del gobierno procede de los hidrocarburos.

Por lo tanto, no se esperan importantes novedades en la reunión de la OPEP y el JMMC este jueves.

Wall Street: nueva tanda de la temporada de ganancias del 3T

No nos olvidemos que la temporada de ganancias sigue en pleno apogeo. La actividad no cesa en Wall Street con la publicación de los resultados del tercer trimestre de las empresas de gran capitalización.

Esta semana, conoceremos cómo les ha ido a ActivisionBlizzard, Uber, Pfizer y Airbnb. Descubra qué empresas publicarán sus resultados y cuándo en nuestro calendario de la temporada de ganancias estadounidense.

Principales datos económicos

Date Time (GMT+1) Asset Event
Mon 01-Nov 2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
 
Tue 02-Nov 3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
  3:30am AUD Cash Rate
  8:00pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
  9:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q
  9:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate
 
Wed 03-Nov 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
  12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  2:00pm USD ISM Services PMI
  2:30pm OIL Crude Oil Inventories
  6:00pm USD FOMC Statement
  6:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate
  6:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
 
Thu 04-Nov 10:00am EUR EU Economic Forecasts
  All Day OIL OPEC-JMMC Meetings
  12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility
  12:00pm GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report
  12:00pm GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
  12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  12:00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary
  12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate
  12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
  02.30pm GAS US Natural Gas Inventories
 
Fri 05-Nov 12:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  12:30pm CAD Employment Change
  12:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate
  12:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  12:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change
  12:30pm USD Unemployment Rate
  2:00pm CAD Ivey PMI

 

Principales informes de resultados

Mon 1 Nov Tue 2 Nov Wed 3 Nov Thu 4 Nov
Pfizer (PFE) Ball Corp (BLL)
Arista Networks (ANET) Activision Blizzard (ATVI) Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Lumentum Holdings (LITE)
Mondelez (MDLZ) Moderna (MRNA)
The Trade Desk (TTD)
Airbnb (ABNB)
Illumina (ILMN)
Liberty Global Class A (LBTYA)
Peloton (PTON)
Roku Inc (ROKU)
Square Inc (SQ)
Uber Technologies (UBER)

 

Stocks up as earnings optimism wins, inflation expectations higher

European stock markets rose in early trade Friday, set to finish the week largely flat after a little wobble but not a huge amount of movement. Churn seems to the be order of the day after a decent run up for the FTSE 100, which hit its best level in about 18 months last Friday. It’s not far off that level this morning.  Bit of a double whammy for UK this morning with the Bank of England chief economist warning inflation will exceed 5% and retail sales falling again. Stagflation vibes but sterling holding on ok and 2yr gilts back off their recent highs, though the wires just flashed the UK 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to its highest in 25 years. A GfK report showed consumer inflation expectations jumping to a record high. That’s what the Bank of England is expressly trying to avoid. Asian shares were up as Evergrande repaid a missed dollar interest payment. IHG shares off 2% despite a rebound in bookings thanks to Brits doing more holidaying in the UK, Sainsbury’s also lower as it abandons plans to sell its bank.

 

The S&P 500 closed at a record high and made it seven straight days of gains amid a mood of positivity around earnings. It ends a two-month pullback that saw it decline a modest 6% before recovering. Rates are higher – US 10s at their highest since May at 1.7% and 2s at a year high, curve flatter. The 10yr TIPS breakeven inflation rose above 2.61% to hits its highest since 2012. But investors are shrugging off inflation and expected central bank policy moves because of earnings growth being more positive than thought. Tesla shares rose to a record after earnings beat expectations. Energy and financials lagged, megacap tech did the lifting +1% (FANG+TM up 1%). Again slower growth, higher inflation supports growth stocks as real growth is at a premium. A steep drop for IBM prevented the Dow Jones from rallying.

 

Not a huge move in FX this morning – dollar index around the 93.60 area, major pairs stuck to well-worn levels. GBPUSD is trying to regain 1.38 and make a fresh stab at what looks like a near-term top around 1.3830 – the high of each of the last three days.  

 

Donald Trump + social media + SPAC. It feels like a kind of reassuringly volatile mix. Trump is launching his own social media platform called TRUTH Social. It needs capital letters, of course. I’d maybe even suggest ‘TRUTH! SOCIAL!’ might be more appropriate. Banned by Twitter and Facebook, Trump is taking on the Silicon Valley elite and fake news in the way he knows best. Shares in Digital World Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: DWAC), the Spac that merged with the platform company, soared as much as 400% and had to be halted at one point amid very heavy volume. Trump still sells. The stock finished up 357% at $45.50.  

 

I can’t see the majority of people ditching their FB and Twitter accounts for this. But you can see a large chunk of disaffected Americans, chiefly Republican/Trump voters, giving it go. I don’t think this ends the dominance of the other platforms, but tells you a lot about what a lot of people think about the platforms they use. “I created TRUTH Social and TMTG to stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech,” says DT. “We live in a world where the Taliban has a huge presence on Twitter, yet your favorite American President has been silenced. This is unacceptable.” He’s got a point. 

 

If you don’t have a controversial ex-President to back your social media platform, you have to rely on more mundane things like advertising revenues to drive cash flow. So poor Snap shares collapsed overnight as third quarter revenue expectations missed expectations after Apple’s iPhone privacy changes hit the advertising business. Daily active user growth was sluggish and the company warned of the global supply chain problems and labour shortages hitting advertising demand. Shares plunged by more than 21% after hours. Facebook and Twitter both dropped by more than 4% in sympathy.  

 

The Federal Reserve has banned individual stock purchases by top officials and outlined a broader set of restrictions on their investing activities. These will ‘prohibit them from purchasing individual stocks, holding investments in individual bonds, holding investments in agency securities (directly or indirectly), or entering into derivatives’.

The move came as it emerged that Fed officials were warned on March 23rd, 2020, to observe a ‘trading blackout’ for a period of ‘several months’ due to recent and likely upcoming actions by the Fed. The same day, the Fed did its ‘everything it takes’ moment by committing to open-end bond purchases “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning”. If you, say, knew the Fed was about to provide the ultimate backstop to the stock market, it would be useful, I assume. I figure that if you owned a tonne of stocks you’d find it valuable to know what the Fed was about to do or not do. Which is why it obviously stinks that Fed members have been allowed to trade individual stocks at all. Messrs Kaplan and Rosengren were trading again within weeks, not months, of the memo date. 

 

If you read the memo a certain way it just sounds like the ethics people were actually just trying to offer some good advice – don’t do any unnecessary selling, we got this: “In light of the rapidly developing nature of recent and likely upcoming (Federal Reserve) System actions, please consider observing a trading blackout and avoid making unnecessary securities transactions for at least the next several months, or until FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and Board policy actions return to their regularly scheduled timing.”

The US Debt Ceiling: The Only Way Is Up

With Democratic lawmakers currently working to pass a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure bill, Republican senators have rediscovered their fiscal conservatism, which appeared to temporarily desert them during the Trump era. Given their minority status in both Congressional chambers, McConnell and co are relying on a tool that served them well under the Obama administration – the debt ceiling.

Republicans are demanding that Democrats reduce the scale of their planned infrastructure bill, whose price tag could be as high as $3.5 trillion. Without cooperation on that issue, Republican senators say they will refuse to cooperate on the issue of the debt ceiling. With Senate Majority Leader Schumer already ruling out the use of the reconciliation workaround, which allows for a simple majority for a bill to pass, the only path to resolution on this issue is through a normal Senate vote. This is critical, given the 60-vote requirement for regular bills to pass in the Senate – any debt ceiling resolution will require at least 10 red-state senators to break ranks and vote aye. The achievement of 60 votes is made yet more difficult by the potential for moderate Democrats to join their Republican colleagues in blocking action on the debt ceiling, with Joe Manchin having previously expressed his discomfort with the national debt.

Secretary Yellen now says that the US is likely to hit its debt ceiling on the 18th of October, meaning the federal government will be unable to fulfil its financial obligations after this date unless the ceiling is raised or suspended. This latter point is crucial and has been somewhat muddied by Republican spin on this issue. In reality, the debt ceiling is not about new government spending at all, it is about the government’s ability to fulfil spending promises that it has already made. Such obligations include both welfare payments and the maintenance of the national debt, meaning the potential economic consequences of this saga go far beyond the passage or non-passage of Biden’s infrastructure plan.

This is not the first time that Republican lawmakers have employed such a strategy, using it in both 2011 and 2013 to extract concessions from President Obama. In both of these cases, the concessions achieved were relatively minor, and the Republicans were eventually forced to settle for a moral victory at best. On top of that, the Democrats were able to avoid the bulk of the political backlash, with only 31% of the country saying that they were to blame for the crisis in 2011. So why use such a tactic again, given that it appears on the surface to have been so unsuccessful in times past?

  • Firstly, the political landscape has shifted drastically since episodes one and two of this trilogy. President Biden is a far less formidable political adversary than his former boss, particularly with regards to charisma and control over the media narrative. McConnell will be betting that his party can do a better job of deflecting blame towards the Democrats now they don’t have to compete with Obama’s overwhelming political celebrity. This strategy already appears to be paying off, with just 16% of poll respondents blaming the Republicans for the potential default.
  • Secondly, let us not forget who the intended audience of this political stunt really is – the Republican base. Having the support of even just 31% of the country is more than enough to achieve success in US elections given their historically low turnout, especially in the midterms which are now on the horizon. Turnout will be key in 2022 and this savvy political ploy will increase Republican chances of breaking the Democratic stranglehold on Washington next year by enticing conservative voters to the polls.

With all of this being said, the actual probability of US debt default is virtually zero. This Republican routine would be much more convincing if we hadn’t seen it twice before already. Does anyone really believe that it is a coincidence that all three debt crises have come in the year prior to a midterm election? Or that lawmakers (and their donors) with combined stock portfolios in the billions would seriously allow the devastating economic damage such a default would guarantee? The final nail in the coffin for the convincingness of such a threat is the Republican voters themselves. One of the best-kept secrets in Washington is that red states receive far more in net federal spending per capita than blue states. Whilst conservative voters may love the idea of national fiscal responsibility in theory, they are far more attached to personal financial solvency in practice. If the Republicans actually allowed this debacle to get to a point where the government stopped sending welfare checks, it would be their voters who would suffer the most, and the potential political benefits of this gambit would be nowhere to be seen.

This is not to say that no economic damage will be done or that no panic will occur. In 2011 a resolution was agreed just two days before the debt ceiling was due to be reached and resulted in a US credit rating downgrade and the loss of 1.2 million jobs by 2015. Rather, the very worst fears of the financial markets will not be realised – the debt ceiling will be raised and the infrastructure bill will pass in one form or another. But it’s going to get very messy and very noisy before we get there.

Outcomes:

  1. The panic and political manoeuvring will continue, and may even stretch beyond the October 18th date stated by Yellen, if the Treasury gets creative with their accounting. This uncertainty will hit markets and the real economy but this is a sacrifice Republicans are willing to make. McConnell looks set to trade a few points in the S&P 500 for a few points at the polls in the midterms – a bit of a bargain in political terms.
  2. Moderate Democrats will use this pressure as leverage against the left in their own party who are pushing for the headline $3.5 trillion bill to be realised. This will lead to further infighting among the Democrats which the left will likely lose, meaning a smaller infrastructure package than initially intended.
  3. The chances of the Democrats maintaining or expanding their control in Washington just went down.

Stocks firm in Europe after US selloff

The rise in global bond yields that’s been gathering pace since the delayed reaction to last week’s Fed meeting saw US indices finally crack properly. Mega cap growth took a pounding, sending the Nasdaq down 2.8%, whilst the heavy weighting of these stocks on the S&P 500 sent the broader market lower by 2%. Jay Powell, facing scrutiny from lawmakers in Congress, said inflation could stay «elevated» for longer than previously predicted. Investors are also paying close attention to events in Washington as Republicans once again blocked efforts to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a government shutdown and potential default. European stock markets were firmer in early trade, tracking the middle of the recent ranges. The FTSE 100 continues to trade in a range of a little over 100pts.

Next rose 2.5% as it once again raised its full-year outlook. In the six months to July, brand full-price sales were +8.8% versus 2019 and +62% against 2020. Profit before tax rose to £347m, up +5.9% versus 2019. Full-price sales in the last eight weeks were up +20% versus 2019, which management said ‘materially’ exceeded expectations. The strong outrun means Next is raising full-price sales guidance for the rest of the year to be up +10% versus 2019. And its forecast profit before tax has been raised to £800m, up +6.9% versus 2019 and +£36m ahead of previous guidance of £764m.

The dollar is making new highs, hitting its best since Nov 2020 even as the bond selling takes a pause. US 10yr rates have edged back to around 1.51%. Elsewhere, Citi cited Evergrande as it cut its China 2022 GDP forecast to 4.9% from 5.5%. A key gauge of long-term Eurozone inflation expectations rose to the highest since 2015.

Sterling moved to fresh YTD lows, with GBPUSD touching the 1.350 support. Some have pinned this on fuel (lorry driver) shortages and panic buying. Others have raised the stagflation klaxon because of the fuel problems. This looks like finding a narrative to suit the price action. Nothing changed yesterday relative to the day before. Much like we saw in the bond and equity markets, things move. And cable maybe is seeing a flushing out of some weak hands post the BoE hawkishness. What we have seen is the way sterling moves in a risk-on, risk-off fashion and yesterday was clearly risk off. Expectations for the BoE to raise rates before the Fed may create problems if the BoE has to walk that back in the face of a tougher economic backdrop. Clearly, bulls were caught in a bit of a trap last week and we need to see a bottom formed before we get excited again.

GBP USD Chart 29.09.2021

Stocks ease back at the open, oil and yields higher still

Yields are popping, as a bond market selloff that started last week in the wake of the Fed meeting gathers steam. US 20yr and 30yr paper is yielding the most since July, both above 2%, whilst the benchmark 10yr note has jumped above the psychologically important 1.5% level to 1.53%, its highest since June. Bets on central banks tightening monetary policy more swiftly than previously thought are fuelling the selling in rates as investors also focus in on the wrangling in Washington over the US debt ceiling. Whether we are talking reflation or stagflation, the ‘flation part of the equation is clear and yields need to rise as a corollary. If the Fed is buying $120bn a month in debt today, but buying less tomorrow, it makes sense that rates will inevitably rise.

Senate Republicans on Monday were true to their word and blocked a House bill that would avert a government shutdown and potential default on US debt. Democrats have until Friday to pass legislation that will avoid a shutdown, whilst it’s likely that the debt ceiling must be raised by the middle of October to prevent the US government defaulting on its debt. This pantomime must play out, but it seems impossible that the debt ceiling won’t be raised. A shutdown is possible, however default is unthinkable. Two Fed officials warned of extreme market reaction in the event of a default. Whilst this extreme tail risk is in any way ‘on the table’, Treasuries can expect to go through a period of further volatility.

And with rates on the rise the reflation-value play in the stock market is back on. Energy and financials and stocks tied to the reopening of the economy did well, mega-cap tech and growth was generally weaker as yields rose. Real estate, healthcare and utilities stocks also fell. That mix left the Dow higher but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower for the day. We await to see whether the rotation stardust can power further returns for the broad market – as happened at points earlier this year – or if the heavy weighting of the mega cap tech names will weigh further still. European stock markets are a touch lighter in early trade following Monday’s session which was a story of declining risk appetite throughout the session after a pop at the open. Oil keeps heading in one direction, with WTI above $76 and Brent touching $80.

Time to redo the dot plot: Whilst the Fed has started to sound a tad more willing to raise rates, two of its most hawkish members are on the way out. Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed boss Robert Kaplan announced they will be stepping down shortly. “Unfortunately, the recent focus on my financial disclosure risks becoming a distraction to the Federal Reserve’s execution of that vital work,” Kaplan said in a statement. “For that reason, I have decided to retire.”

This does three things. One, it draws a line under the recent trading disclosure furore. It shows that the Fed under Powell won’t suspect behaviour. Two, it’s going to lower the chances of the insider trading story scuppering Powell’s renomination as Fed chair. Three, it removes two of the more hawkish members from the committee, which could have some implications for monetary policy depending on who replaces them. In the meantime vice presidents Meredith Black (Dallas) and Kenneth Montgomery (Boston) will stand in as interim presidents.
Powell and Yellen testify before a Senate Banking Committee today – the timing of Kaplan and Rosengren stepping down should allow Powell to easily bat away some potentially touch questions over their trading. We also have the Fed’s Evans, Bostic and Bowman on the tape later.

Rising Treasury yields offered support to the US dollar. EUR/USD is down to 1.1670 area, through some big Fib zones and near to the key support at 1.1664-66, while USD/JPY above 111.30 with the YTDS high at 111.64-66. Dollar index is north of 93.60 and towards the very top of the range of the last 11 months – big test here to see if the dollar is going to exert more strength into the back end of the year.

EURUSD Chart 28.09.2021

Gold struggling, making new lows this morning with rates on the march.

Gold Chart 28.09.2021

Stocks up as markets look to Berlin & Washington

Stocks are higher in early trade in Europe, with the DAX jumping 1% at the open as it looks as though Germany is heading for a traffic light coalition – more left, more green. Deadlock for now but it’s all much of the same pro-Europe, pro-tax, pro-windmills type affair so who ultimately becomes Chancellor probably shouldn’t matter too much. Stocks in London was also up close to 1% and the FTSE 100 trades further to the top of the range above 7,100. Stocks pared some gains within the first half-hour of trading. Following a two-month struck last week it’s been a solid turnaround and shows there is not a lot of alternatives (TINA) still, though that starts to look like a different equation should bond yields continue to pick up. US futures are also pointing to a positive open on Wall Street later after last week’s rollercoaster saw the S&P 500 rise 0.5% and the Dow Jones 0.6%, breaking a three-week losing streak. I’d expect near-term volatility to persist, further chop and change and rotation as markets price for tighter monetary policy, with hikes in 2022, as well as persistent inflation. US 10 year yields trade above 1.44% this morning having touched the highest since the start of July, end of June last week.

Apart from Berlin, markets will be keeping an eye on Washington with the utterly ridiculous idea of a default on US debt, an unlikely government shutdown and a plausible collapse of Biden’s economic plans all being discussed. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she expects the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill to pass this week, but also indicated that the $3.5 stimulus programme was almost certain to be watered down. Expect haggling aplenty and markets could be moving on headlines.

The Fed blackout period is over – so we can expect lots of jawboning from policymakers this week. On the slate today are Evans, Williams and Brainard. ECB chief Christine Lagarde (the Lady is not for tapering, the Lady is for recalibrating) is on the taper before them. Also watch for durable goods orders (seen +0.7%, core +0.5%).

Rolls-Royce shares on the up again, rallying 5%, after securing the mega US government contract to power the B-52 Stratofortress for the next 30 years. The F-130 engine will be manufactured at the company’s Indianapolis site, which has recently had a $600m makeover. On the back of some decent price action for the stock, the move confirms the breakout of the 2021 range can calls for further gains for the stock now the worst of the pandemic is behind.

BP trades 2% higher – I wouldn’t be tying this to panic buying and shortages on the forecourts, More likely down to continued rally for oil prices that has seen WTI touch $75 this morning.

Did the BoE really mean to suggest it could raise rates this year, before the end of the QE programme? That statement from the MPC last week, above all the other hawkish hints dropped, was the reason Sterling rallied, before easing back. If the markets are getting ahead of themselves with regards the timing of a rate hike , then Andrew Bailey can row it back when he speaks this evening.

GBPUSD traded around the 61.8% retracement of last week’s BoE-inspired rally, with the 50% area offering resistance to give us a range marker for this session. That 50% area coincides with the longer-term 23.6% retracement area at 1.3680. At the open we saw some bid come through for sterling as it broke free from this overnight range, hitting 1.3690 and looking for a breach of the 38.2% retracement of the near-term range at 1.370, before easing back.

Crude oil keeps on rallying, with WTI (Nov) breaking above $75. This move has real momentum behind it, as well as solid fundamental rationale as oil markets tighten. The tightness in the physical market means inventories are being drawn down around the world. That said, money managers trimmed their net long futures and options positions in the week to Sep 21st, according to the latest CFTC data. This is overall a positive for the duration of the rally since it indicates the price action is driven by more fundamental factors than just a speculative blitz. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end Brent crude price target to $90, and $87 for WTI.

They say: “While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.

“The current oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.”

July 13th peak at $75.50 offers the first test before we see another ascent at $77. Near-term support seen at the daily low at $74.70.

Adelanto semanal: ¿los datos del PCE en EE. UU. obligarán a la Fed a reducir las ayudas económicas?

Las citas ineludibles de esta semana son: el adiós a Angela Merkel con una Alemania que hace frente a un futuro sin el liderazgo de Merkel por primera vez en más de diez años; además, nos espera una tanda de datos importantes de EE. UU., entre ellos la métrica preferida para medir la inflación de la Fed, así como el PIB canadiense. ¿Asistiremos a una recaída?

Es de sobra sabido que la Fed siente predilección por los datos del PCE. El índice de gasto de consumo personal es la métrica de inflación preferida de la institución y la que, según cuáles sean sus resultados de agosto, podría acelerar la aplicación de la controvertida reducción de las ayudas económicas.

El mercado en general considera que la Fed comenzará a disminuir su apoyo económico en noviembre o en diciembre, por lo que ahora las dudas se ciernen sobre la subida de los tipos. La Fed ya ha revisado al alza su proyección de la inflación del PCE subyacente para 2021 del 3 % en junio al 3,7 %; ya saben que la inflación se disparará. El presidente Powell prácticamente ha anunciado que la Fed empezará a desmantelar las ayudas económicas este año. Ahora la cuestión es si la Fed volverá a revisar al alza estas previsiones y qué podría suponer para sus planes en torno a la subida de los tipos de interés. Si esta semana se publicaran datos que batieran todas las expectativas se avivaría la inquietud en torno a la posibilidad de este escenario.

Evidentemente, hay otros factores externos en juego. También cabe señalar que el aumento del 0,4 % de julio fue coherente con las expectativas y supuso un incremento menor que en junio.

En julio, la tasa de inflación general ascendió al 4,2 %. Según los últimos datos del Índice de precios al consumo, el coste de los bienes de consumo aumentó un 5,3 % en agosto. Este aumento fue consistente con las previsiones. También podría ser un indicador de qué nos deparan los datos del PCE.

Ya se sabe que la Fed se contenta con dejar que la inflación suba por encima del objetivo del 2 %, ya que considera que estos altos niveles son algo «transitorio».

Al igual que prácticamente todas las principales economías, Estados Unidos está dejando atrás la «economía de la pandemia» e intenta alcanzar un cierto grado de normalidad. Podría darse el caso de que la inflación desbocada continúe chamuscando la economía antes de terminar de prenderse en 2022 para después desvanecerse.

Los últimos datos del PCE se publicarán el viernes.

También conoceremos los datos de la confianza de los consumidores estadounidenses. Como es lógico, un incremento en los precios apunta a una menor confianza de los consumidores. Este hecho se ha recogido en los datos de agosto y puede que también lo veamos en los de septiembre, cuando se publiquen el martes por la tarde.

En agosto, la confianza de los consumidores cayó a un mínimo de seis meses. El índice de The Conference Board disminuyó hasta los 113,8 puntos desde los 125,1 puntos revisados en julio.

Lynn Franco, director sénior de indicadores económicos en The Conference Board, explicó esta caída en unas declaraciones: «La inquietud en torno a la variante delta —y, en menor medida, la subida de los precios del gas y de los alimentos— ha dado lugar a una visión menos favorable de la situación económica actual y de las perspectivas de crecimiento a corto plazo».

Hasta ahora, en Estados Unidos se han registrado más de 39 millones de casos de Covid-19 a lo largo de la pandemia.

Al otro lado del charco, Alemania cierra el capítulo del mandato de Angela Merkel como canciller. Tras 16 años en el cargo, Merkel ha decidido hacerse a un lado, por lo que se respirarán nuevos —y emocionantes— aires de cambio en las elecciones de hoy.

Al final del día de hoy, Alemania estrenará un nuevo o una nueva canciller. Olaf Scholz, el líder del SPD, era el favorito durante la campaña electoral, por delante de los candidatos del CDU y los Verdes.

No obstante, se cree que los Verdes —con respecto a los cuales, antes de que los alemanes acudieran a las urnas, todo apuntaba a que lograrían unos resultados históricos— podrían convertirse en el principal socio de gobierno del SPD a la luz de una flamante coalición.

Nuestra experta en política y macroeconomía, Helen Thomas, ha lanzado su predicción sobre las últimas elecciones federales en Alemania. ¿Serán acertadas sus predicciones?

Seguimos en el ámbito electoral: en una nueva ola de cambios políticos, Canadá acudió a las urnas recientemente, en unos comicios en los que el primer ministro Trudeau renovó el cargo por tercera vez. Sin embargo, la mayoría del Partido Liberal se ha visto comprometida, lo que podría añadirle más atractivo a las próximas decisiones económicas del país.

Este mes se publica el PIB intermensual de Canadá, tras la última contracción del 1,1 %. Las previsiones auguran un crecimiento del 2,5 %, por lo que, aun con las elecciones anticipadas que han mantenido a Trudeau en el poder, los problemas a los que debe hacer frente el primer ministro siguen siendo los mismos.

La recuperación económica «continuará requiriendo el mismo extraordinario nivel de apoyo», según afirmó el gobernador del Banco de Canadá, Tiff Macklem. No se esperan cambios en la política económica, a pesar del deslucido PIB del mes pasado. Puede que, a raíz del fervor electoral, asistamos a un cambio de rumbo este mes o a una coyuntura más aciaga.

Principales datos económicos

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Asset  Event 
Sun 26-Sep  All Day  EUR  German Federal Elections 
       
Tue 28-Sep  2.30am  AUD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  3.00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
       
Wed 29-Sep  3.30pm  OIL  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 30-Sep  2.00am  CNH  China Manufacturing PMI 
  1.30pm  CAD  GDP m/m 
       
Fri 01-Oct  8.55am  EUR  German Final Manufactuing PMI 
  1.30pm  USD  Core PCE Index m/m 
  3.00pm  USD  ISM Manufacturing PMI 

 

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¿Se ha perdido?

Hemos detectado que está en el sitio de . Puesto que se conecta desde una ubicación en , debería considerar volver a entrar en , sitio sujeto a las medidas de intervención de productos de la . Si bien puede navegar en este sitio por iniciativa propia y exclusiva, al consultar el sitio de su país se mostrará la información reglamentaria correspondiente y las protecciones pertinentes de la empresa que elija. ¿Quiere ser redirigido a ?