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The markets month ahead: key events for your trading diary in October
Get a look at the coming month’s important market-moving events with our October trading preview.
Economic events to watch in October
OPEC-JMMC meetings – Monday 4th October
The month begins in earnest with OPEC-JMMC meetings. OPEC+ comes together for its monthly policy talks. No shocking surprises are expected this month. Instead, we’ll probably see a rubber-stamping of the planned output increase of 400,000 bpd.
RBA rate statement – Tuesday 5th October
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its newest rate statement at the start of the month. Markets forecast no hike for the foreseeable future. The cash rate will probably stay at its historic low.
RBNZ rate statement – Wednesday 6th October
Joining its Australian cousin in starting the month with a rate decision is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Economists think an increase in the 0.2% cash rate will come – but not the 0.5% increase forecast.
US nonfarm payrolls – Friday 8th October
Jerome Powell and the Fed, plus the wider markets, will be watching the month’s NFP data carefully. August’s data missed the mark by miles – will September’s stats point towards a US labour market surge?
US CPI data – Wednesday 13th October
Consumer Price Index rises cooled in August, backing the Fed’s stance that current high prices are all transitionary. Month-on-month price gains slowed to 0.3%. September’s CPI stats are released on Wednesday 13th of October.
US retail sales data – Friday 15th October
Retail sales across America picked up an unexpected bump in August. Sales were up 0.7% according to the Census Bureau. Observers were calling for a 0.7% decline, driven by rising Delta-variant COVID cases. Will we see an upward swing in September too?
UK CPI data – Tuesday 20th October
UK inflation is running hot. Last month’s report showed it growing at the fastest rate since records began, rising at 3.2%. It may be all transitionary, but if inflation punches above the Bank of England’s 4% target, then the UK’s central bank may be forced to act.
European PMIs – Friday October 22nd
Brace for the monthly European flash PMI blitz with all the key economic activity indicators from France, Germany, and the EU all inbound. Eurozone composite PMI readings for September missed expectations of 58.5 coming in at 56.1. Still in growth, but it looks like activity is starting to slow.
Bank of Canada rate statement – Wednesday October 27th
The first rate statement of Justin Trudeau’s third term comes this month. Governor Tiff Macklem and co. stuck to their guns in September, keeping the 0.25% rate in place and the QE pace the same. It’s probable October’s statement will bring much the same.
ECB Press Conference – Thursday October 28th
The European Central Bank scaled back its bond-buying programme in September in a bid to cool soaring inflation. Its October moves will likely all come down to how EU CPI reacted to the change. Rates stayed at 0% and it’s likely they will in the mid-term.
Major economic data
|Mon Oct-04||8:00am||EUR||Spanish Unemployment Change|
|All Day||All||OPEC Meetings|
|All Day||All||OPEC-JMMC Meetings|
|Tue Oct-05||4:30am||AUD||RBA Rate Statement|
|Tentative||JPY||BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks|
|3:00pm||USD||ISM Services PMI|
|Wed Oct-06||2:00am||NZD||Official Cash Rate|
|2:00am||NZD||RBNZ Rate Statement|
|1:15pm||USD||ADP Non-Farm Employment Change|
|3:30pm||OIL||Crude Oil Inventories|
|Thu Oct-07||1:30pm||USD||Unemployment Claims|
|Fri Oct-08||1:30am||AUD||RBA Financial Stability Review|
|1:30pm||USD||Average Hourly Earnings m/m|
|1:30pm||USD||Non-Farm Employment Change|
|Tentative||USD||Treasury Currency Report|
|Tue Oct 12||3:00am||CNH||GDP q/y|
|3:00am||CNH||Retail Sales y/y|
|10:00am||EUR||ZEW Economic Sentiment|
|10:00am||EUR||German ZEW Economic Sentiment|
|3:00pm||USD||JOLTS Job Openings|
|6:00pm||USD||10-y Bond Auction|
|Wed Oct-13||1:30pm||USD||CPI m/m|
|1:30pm||USD||Core CPI m/m|
|6:01pm||USD||30-y Bond Auction|
|7:00pm||USD||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|Thu Oct-14||1:30am||AUD||Employment Change|
|1:30pm||USD||Core PPI m/m|
|4:00pm||OIL||Crude Oil Inventories|
|Fri Oct-15||7:00am||GBP||Retail Sales m/m|
|1:30pm||USD||Core Retail Sales m/m|
|1:30pm||USD||Retail Sales m/m|
|1:30pm||USD||Empire State Manufacturing Index|
|3:00pm||USD||Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment|
|Mon Oct-18||2:15pm||USD||Industrial Production m/m|
|3:30pm||CAD||BOC Business Outlook Survey|
|Tue Oct-19||1:30am||AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|Wed Oct-20||7:00am||GBP||CPI y/y|
|1:30pm||CAD||Common CPI y/y|
|1:30pm||CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m|
|1:30pm||CAD||Median CPI y/y|
|1:30pm||CAD||Retail Sales m/m|
|1:30pm||CAD||Trimmed CPI y/y|
|3:30pm||OIL||Crude Oil Inventories|
|Thu Oct-21||1:30pm||USD||Philly Fed Manufacturing Index|
|Fri Oct-22||8:15am||EUR||French Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|8:15am||EUR||French Flash Services PMI|
|8:30am||EUR||German Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|8:30am||EUR||German Flash Services PMI|
|9:00am||EUR||Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|9:00am||EUR||Flash Services PMI|
|9:30am||GBP||Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|9:30am||GBP||Flash Services PMI|
|2:45pm||USD||Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|2:45pm||USD||Flash Services PMI|
|Mon Oct-25||9:00am||EUR||German ifo Business Climate|
|Tue Oct-26||1:30pm||USD||Core Durable Goods Orders m/m|
|1:30pm||USD||Durable Goods Orders m/m|
|3:00pm||USD||CB Consumer Confidence|
|Wed Oct-27||1:30am||AUD||CPI q/q|
|1:30am||AUD||Trimmed Mean CPI q/q|
|3:00pm||CAD||BOC Monetary Policy Report|
|3:00pm||CAD||BOC Rate Statement|
|3:30pm||OIL||Crude Oil Inventories|
|Tentative||CAD||BOC Press Conference|
|Thu Oct-28||Tentative||JPY||BOJ Outlook Report|
|Tentative||JPY||Monetary Policy Statement|
|Tentative||JPY||BOJ Press Conference|
|12:45pm||EUR||Monetary Policy Statement|
|12:45pm||EUR||Main Refinancing Rate|
|1:30pm||EUR||ECB Press Conference|
|1:30pm||USD||Advance GDP q/q|
|1:30pm||USD||Advance GDP Price Index q/q|
|3:00pm||USD||Pending Home Sales m/m|
|Fri Oct-29||8:00am||EUR||German Prelim GDP q/q|
|1:30pm||USD||Core PCE Price Index m/m|
|3:00pm||USD||Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment|
|Sat Oct-30||Day 1||All||G20 Meetings|
|Sun Oct-31||1:00am||CNH||Manufacturing PMI|
|Day 2||All||G20 Meetings|
Week Ahead: FOMC minutes, global PMI rush & UK CPI/Retail sales
FOMC meeting minutes are released this week for April’s meeting as pressure mounts on Jerome Powell et al to take inflation seriously.
UK CPI data gives an insight into inflation there, while the first batch of post-lockdown retail sales data lets us see if shoppers are heading back to the British high street.
There’s a wealth of PMI data coming from the UK, US, and EU too. How will their economic recoveries compare?
FOMC meeting minutes – is the time act approaching?
We get a detailed look inside the FOMC this week as it releases its minutes for its April meeting.
We know the story now. Despite acknowledging the fact inflation is probably on its way, although rising fuel-led CPI data has shown this is already case, no major tweaks are coming to the Fed’s current policy.
Chairman Jerome Powell is content with letting the economy run hot. Rates remain at near zero. QE will remain in place for the foreseeable at $120bn a month in treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities.
We’ve spoken in the past about what it will take for Powell and Co. to switch things up. According to Powell, three criteria need to be met:
• Effective complete recovery in the labour market
• Inflation reaching 2%
• Inflation running above 2% for a sustainable period of time
Employment might be key here. Eight million Americans are still out of work – although job openings have leapt above that figure. April’s NFP data was not quite as stellar as March’s blockbuster performance either.
The US economy is strengthening. First quarter GDP grew 6.4% year-on-year. We’re not out of the woods yet though, but the momentum is building – maybe it’ll force Powell’s hand in June. For now, the course is steady.
UK CPI shines inflation spotlight on UK economy
We’ll get a taste of the state of inflation in the UK this week with April’s year-on-year CPI data release.
According to May’s Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of England puts current CPI below the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) target of 2.0%. However, we’ve seen indicators that inflation is coming in previous Office of National Statistics (CPI) releases.
March’s ONS CPI reading put the consumer price inflation at 0.7%, compared with 0.4% in February, and rebalancing with the 0.7% level seen in January.
Looking across the year, BoE forecasts think its 2.0% target might be hit by the end of the year. Other commentators have similar outlooks, maybe not hitting the full 2.0% level, but close to it. For instance, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) puts year-end CPI at 1.8%, rising to 2.0% by Q2 2022.
Pantheon’s Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs believes the 2.0% figure will come this month, with April’s printing clocking in at 1.7%. Tombs thinks, because the reading will come after shops have opened, alongside an anticipated semi-annual increase in electricity and natural gas prices, we’ll get a more accurate reading of the state of things.
First post-lockdown UK retail sales data inbound
UK retail sales data for April is coming, following preliminary data published last week.
As to be expected, with lockdown relaxing and non-essential shops open for trading again, initial sales data shows an encouraging spike across April. BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor, overall retail sales in April rose 7.3% against April 2019 (when figures were unaffected by the Covid-19 pandemic).
On a like-for-like basis, sales were up 46%.
“Following the reopening of so-called non-essential stores on 12th April in England and Wales and continued online growth, retail sales enjoyed a welcome boost last month. With the short-term pent-up demand for the shopping experience drawing consumers back to stores, non-food sales across stores and online increased by a quarter between March and April,” BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said.
“Many fashion retailers saw an uptick in sales, particularly in outerwear and knitwear, as the public braved the cold spring weather for outdoor meeting and dining with friends. Furniture also saw a boost as consumers can once again try before they buy,” Dickinson added.
In the three weeks following the first reopening of stores across England and Wales, overall non-food sales in the UK rose 25% against spending levels of seen in March when the lockdown was still in full effect.
Inevitably, the growth rate will slow once the retail segment fully normalises. In the short term though, the sector looks like it’s being buoyed by an expected post-lockdown surge.
Worldwide PMI rush
An avalanche of flash PMI readings are on their way. The EU reports this week, as does the UK and US.
Starting with the EU, the bloc will be hoping to build on April’s forward momentum. Services flash PMI that month hit a nine-month high, with a score of 53.7. Manufacturing was rated at 62.9 according to IHS Markit ratings.
The EU, then, may mirror the course the UK is on: GDP contraction in the first quarter, followed by growth across the year.
Looking to the UK, April saw a record increase in services PMI, reaching its highest level for seven years. March’s reading was 56.3. April’s was 61.0. The partial reopening of the hospitality sector has put it on a growth footing once more, and we may see further growth when venues allow indoor service from Monday.
IHS Markit’s April manufacturing PMI for the UK also showed very strong performance, after nudging record highs. The index rose to 60.9 over 58.9 for March. Growth is back in the sector as orders pick up, but IHS did flag supply chain delays and input issues that could affect ongoing performance.
While the EU and UK look to grow, US manufacturing might be taking a step back. April’s ISM manufacturing PMI data came in at 60.7 – far lower than the expected 65. Supply chain woes are holding the sector back, according to ISM.
We’ll get further information on the economic health of these key industries with the week’s PMI releases.
Major economic data
|Tue 18-May||2.30am||AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|Wed 19-May||7.00am||GBP||CPI y/y|
|3.30pm||USD||US Crude Oil Inventories|
|7.00pm||USD||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|Thu 20-May||2.30am||AUD||Employment Change|
|1.30pm||USD||Phily Fed Manufacturing Index|
|3.30pm||USD||US Natural Gas Inventories|
|Fri 21-May||2.30am||AUD||Retail Sales m/m|
|3.00am||NZD||Annual Budget Release|
|7.00am||GBP||Retail Sales m/m|
|8.15am||EUR||French Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|8.15am||EUR||French Flash Services PMI|
|8.30am||EUR||German Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|8.30am||EUR||German Flash Services PMI|
|9.00am||EUR||Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|9.00am||EUR||Flash Services PMI|
|9.30am||GBP||Flash Manufacturing PMI|
|9.30am||GBP||Flash Services PMI|
|1.30pm||CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m|
|1.30pm||CAD||Retail Sales m/m|
|2.45pm||USD||Flash Manufacturing PMI|
Key earnings data
|Mon 17-May||Bridgestone||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Ryanair||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|Tue 18-May||Walmart||Q2 2022 Earnings|
|Home Depot||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Vodafone||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|LG Corp||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Take Two||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|Tata Motors||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|Wed 19-May||Cisco||Q3 2021 Earnings|
|Lowe’s||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|JD.com||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Target||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Analog Devices||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Experian||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|Thu 20-May||Tencent Holdings||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Applied Materials||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|National Grid PLC||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|Palo Alto Networks||Q3 2021 Earnings|
|Ralph Lauren||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|Fri 21-May||Deere & Co.||Q2 2021 Earnings|