Stocks pick up, bonds remain bid ahead of Fed minutes

Morning Note

European stocks edged higher early Wednesday after taking a sharp tumble in yesterday’s afternoon session. Bonds and the dollar rallied, leaving benchmark yields at their lowest in some months, knocking the wind out of the cyclical recovery trade. The FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.9% at 7100 but has regained some poise in the early part of today’s session to trade at 7,130. European markets remain very much stuck in month-long ranges. Shell shares rose more than 2% on a promise if higher shareholder returns.

Mega cap growth helped the US market keep a more level head as the S&P 500 declined 0.2%, easing away from a record high set last week, whilst the Nasdaq rallied by almost the same amount. The Dow Jones fell 0.6% as economically sensitive names like Caterpillar, Chevron, Home Depot and JPMorgan slipped. US 10yr yields are under 1.34% this morning, a five-month low. Similar story for gilts, with the yield on 10yr paper at 0.627%, the lowest since Feb.

Yesterday’s pullback and the sharp drop in bond yields reflected doubts about the pace of growth, and the extent to which costs are going up for businesses. The talk is that peak growth is behind us and The ISM services PMI reflected the trouble for growth is not on the demand side; quite the reverse. Businesses anecdotally reported ‘supply chain outages, logistics delays and employee- and management-staffing constraints’ and that ‘business conditions continue to rebound; however, like everywhere, the challenges in the supply chain are numerous. We continue to see cost increases, delayed shipments, pushed-out lead times, and no clarity as to when predictive balance returns to this market’. I fail to see how this implies inflation will be transitory.

A run-up in the S&P 500 of 5% in the last two weeks looks to be unsustainable and at the very least I’d anticipate we see a pause and trading sideways, if not a deeper correction over the summer. For now, though, Tuesday’s dip is not a sign of reversal. The market is narrowing, too. The S&P 500 would have had a much sharper drop (~1%) had it not been for the 14 index points added by Apple and Amazon. Shares in Amazon rallied almost 5% as the US Defense department cancelled its $10bn JEDI contract with Microsoft, with the Pentagon saying it will seek a new multi-vendor contract. It will seek proposals from both Microsoft and Amazon.

The narrative and the ‘macro picture’ seem a little less understood – has growth peaked, will inflation wipe out economic gains, has the Fed really got inflation angst? We get to find out a lot more about that with today’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Earnings season is coming up but it’s well known we are going to see some monster numbers and it is less obvious how Q2 reporting will drive the market higher – if anything it could lead to a round of profit taking and recalibration. Expectations are already so high. But we can’t ignore the bond market and equity market concentration in growth stocks – if bonds find more bid and the 10yr pushes yet lower to 1%, then the stock market can keep gliding higher.

The dollar is holding higher against peers ahead of the minutes from the June meeting. The meeting revealed a couple of things we had pretty well expected: a) Fed officials are talking about tapering, b) dots are coming in due to the rapid economic rebound and, less well anticipated, c) the Fed is a little bit concerned about letting inflation off the leash. The minutes should provide some further clarity/explanation about the Fed’s likely position but ultimately we don’t see any change until Jackson Hole in late August or the September meeting. The trouble for the market is dealing with the Fed’s reaction function in terms of yields: a hawkish Fed and quicker taper/hike ought to drive yields higher, but the reaction to the June meeting saw the reverse as the statement and projections implied the Fed wouldn’t let inflation get out of control. So now we know this, we are likely to see a more considered market reaction that, all else equal, should see rates move higher this year as the Fed lays down the tapering agenda and inflation remains more persistent than central banks think.

EURUSD made a fresh 3-month low in a further extension from the bear flag downside breakout.

EURUSD price action on July 7th 2021.

GBPUSD: firm rejection of 1.39 yesterday and continues to stick to the downtrend. For now, continues to scrap around the 1.38 area, felling just below this morning and eyeing a break to 1.3660 area, the 200-day SMA and Mar/Apr double bottom.

GBPUSD price action on July 7th 2021.

Crude oil futures catching a little bid in early trade this morning after yesterday’s reversal. Concerns remain that the failure by OPEC to agree to gently increase production could lead to the output agreement unravelling, which could lead to more crude coming on the market. But there is a lot of uncertainty – if OPEC+ stick to the current quotas global inventories will draw down further and the market will further tighten, squeezing prices higher.

Chart showing crude oil price action.

Gold is getting a filip from lower yields, though the stronger greenback is checking its advance. 10yr TIPS have slipped to –0.94%, the lowest since the middle of February as nominal rates fell. Price action remains above $1,800 with the bullish crossover on the MACD confirmed.

Gold chart showing price action 07.07.2021