Week Ahead: Is hot UK inflation here to stay?

Week Ahead

Quite a lot to look out for in terms of big data this week. First up, we have UK CPI data. Is inflation sticking around for longer than we thought? UK and EU flash PMIs come too at a time when it looks like economic activity is starting to slow down. It’s also US earnings season with leading tech players reporting in. 

UK CPI: circling hawks and hot prints 

On the data front, one of the week’s big releases are the latest UK Consumer Price Index numbers. 

September’s print showed that UK inflation had far exceeded the Bank of England’s 2% target in August. Consumer prices surged by 3.2% in the twelve months up to that month official data showed – the highest month-on-month increase since records began in 2017. 

The Office for National Statistics said the surge was “likely to be a temporary change” and flagged the government’s Eat Out to Help Out (EOHO) scheme may have been a contributing factor to the jump. 

“In August 2020 many prices in restaurants and cafes were discounted because of the government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme, which offered customers half-price food and drink to eat or drink in (up to the value of £10) between Mondays and Wednesdays,” the ONS said in its statement. 

“Because EOHO was a short-term scheme, the upward shift in the August 2021 12-month inflation rate is likely to be temporary.” 

The official line has been that higher prices are transitionary – but voices from within the Bank of England warn it could be here for longer than first thought.  

The BoE’s new Chief Economist Huw Pill has said he believes hot inflation could be sticking around. 

“In my view, that balance of risks is currently shifting towards great concerns about the inflation outlook, as the current strength of inflation looks set to prove more long-lasting than originally anticipated,” Pill said in September. 

Pill lends his voice to the hawkish chorus steadily building in the Bank of England’s council. A number of MPC members are calling for a rate hike early next year. As such, another high CPI print in September may lead to a turning up of the volume from the hawks. 

PMI rush to signpost economic slowdowns? 

It’s also the time of the month when flash PMI scores start landing thick and fast. 

British and EU data is released this week off the back of last month’s reports which indicate growth is slowing in these two major economies. 

Let’s start with the UK. The IHS Markit flash composite for September indicated output had dropped to the lowest level since February. The UK’s score came in at 54.1 that month, slipping from 54.8 in August. 

Recovery appears to be stalling as we head into the winter months. Lower economic activity matched with higher inflation does not create the most positive of outcomes for Britain’s economy going forward.  

The PMI for the services sector fell to 54.6 in September from 55.0 in August, its lowest level since February when Britain was still in lockdown. Manufacturing fell from 60.3 to 56.4, which is again the lowest level since February. 

It’s the same story across the Channel. European growth was stymied by supply constraints pushing input costs the 20-year highs throughout the EU last month. Will this month’s PMI data show the same? 

In terms of scores, the IHS composite reading showed economic growth had dropped to a five-month low in September. The EU scored 56.1 that month against 59.0 in August. 

This was well below market forecasts. A Reuters poll indicated economists and analysts believed output would slow, but at the much lower rate of 58.5. 

Supply line squeezes coupled with a general slowing of GDP growth appear to be the main factors here. The EU economy is approaching its pre-pandemic size, so a slowdown was always on the cards, but not one quite so drastic. 

I would expect to see a lower EU PMI print on Friday when the latest data lands. 

Wall Street earnings keep on coming – enter the tech stocks 

Next week, we’ll be in the thick of it when it comes to Q3 earnings season. Big banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan, kicked things off for us last week. Now, it’s the turn of some big tech mega caps to share their latest financials. 

Netflix and Tesla are the two headliners to watch out for this week. Both reported strong Q1 and Q2 figures but have advised performance may start to drop off in 2021’s third quarter. 

For more information on which companies are reporting and when be sure to check out our US earnings season calendar. 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Asset  Event 
Mon 18-Oct  3:00am  CNY  GDP q/y 
  3:00am  CNY  Retail Sales y/y 
  2:15pm  USD  Industrial Production m/m 
  3:30pm  CAD  BOC Business Outlook Survey 
Tue 19-Oct   1:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
       
Wed 20-Oct  7:00am  GBP  CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  CPI m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Common CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Median CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Trimmed CPI y/y 
  3:30pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 21-Oct  1:30pm  USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
       
Fri 22-Oct  7:00am  GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Services PMI 
  8:30am  EUR  German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8:30am  EUR  German Flash Services PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Services PMI 
  9:30am  GBP  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9:30am  GBP  Flash Services PMI 
  1:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
  2:45pm  USD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  2:45pm  USD  Flash Services PMI 
  Tentative  USD  Treasury Currency Report 

 

Key earnings data 

Tue 19 Oct  Wed 20 Oct  Thu 21 Oct  Fri 22 Oct 
Philip Morris International (PM)   Verizon Communications Inc (VZ)   AT&T (T)   American Express (AXP)  
       
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)   International Business Machines (IBM)  Intel Corp (INTC)   Schlumberger Ltd (SLB)  
       
Procter & Gamble (PG)  Tesla Inc (TSLA)   Snap Inc A (SNAP)    
       
Netflix Inc (NFLX)        

 

The markets month ahead: key events for your trading diary in October

Get a look at the coming month’s important market-moving events with our October trading preview. 

Economic events to watch in October 

OPEC-JMMC meetings – Monday 4th October  

The month begins in earnest with OPEC-JMMC meetings. OPEC+ comes together for its monthly policy talks. No shocking surprises are expected this month. Instead, we’ll probably see a rubber-stamping of the planned output increase of 400,000 bpd.  

RBA rate statement – Tuesday 5th October  

The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its newest rate statement at the start of the month. Markets forecast no hike for the foreseeable future. The cash rate will probably stay at its historic low. 

RBNZ rate statement – Wednesday 6th October  

Joining its Australian cousin in starting the month with a rate decision is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Economists think an increase in the 0.2% cash rate will come – but not the 0.5% increase forecast. 

US nonfarm payrolls – Friday 8th October 

Jerome Powell and the Fed, plus the wider markets, will be watching the month’s NFP data carefully. August’s data missed the mark by miles – will September’s stats point towards a US labour market surge? 

US CPI data – Wednesday 13th October 

Consumer Price Index rises cooled in August, backing the Fed’s stance that current high prices are all transitionary. Month-on-month price gains slowed to 0.3%. September’s CPI stats are released on Wednesday 13th of October. 

US retail sales data – Friday 15th October 

Retail sales across America picked up an unexpected bump in August. Sales were up 0.7% according to the Census Bureau. Observers were calling for a 0.7% decline, driven by rising Delta-variant COVID cases. Will we see an upward swing in September too? 

UK CPI data – Tuesday 20th October 

UK inflation is running hot. Last month’s report showed it growing at the fastest rate since records began, rising at 3.2%. It may be all transitionary, but if inflation punches above the Bank of England’s 4% target, then the UK’s central bank may be forced to act. 

European PMIs – Friday October 22nd 

Brace for the monthly European flash PMI blitz with all the key economic activity indicators from France, Germany, and the EU all inbound. Eurozone composite PMI readings for September missed expectations of 58.5 coming in at 56.1. Still in growth, but it looks like activity is starting to slow. 

Bank of Canada rate statement – Wednesday October 27th 

The first rate statement of Justin Trudeau’s third term comes this month. Governor Tiff Macklem and co. stuck to their guns in September, keeping the 0.25% rate in place and the QE pace the same. It’s probable October’s statement will bring much the same. 

ECB Press Conference – Thursday October 28th  

The European Central Bank scaled back its bond-buying programme in September in a bid to cool soaring inflation. Its October moves will likely all come down to how EU CPI reacted to the change. Rates stayed at 0% and it’s likely they will in the mid-term. 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Asset  Event 
Mon Oct-04  8:00am  EUR  Spanish Unemployment Change 
  All Day  All  OPEC Meetings 
  All Day  All  OPEC-JMMC Meetings 
       
Tue Oct-05  4:30am  AUD  RBA Rate Statement 
  4:30am  AUD  Cash Rate 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks 
  3:00pm  USD  ISM Services PMI 
       
Wed Oct-06  2:00am  NZD  Official Cash Rate 
  2:00am  NZD  RBNZ Rate Statement 
  1:15pm  USD  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 
  3:30pm  OIL  Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu Oct-07  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3:00pm  CAD  Ivey PMI 
       
Fri Oct-08  1:30am  AUD  RBA Financial Stability Review 
  1:30pm  CAD  Employment Change 
  1:30pm  CAD  Unemployment Rate 
  1:30pm  USD  Average Hourly Earnings m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Non-Farm Employment Change 
  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Rate 
  Tentative  USD  Treasury Currency Report 
       
Tue Oct 12  3:00am  CNH  GDP q/y 
  3:00am  CNH  Retail Sales y/y 
  10:00am  EUR  ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  10:00am  EUR  German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  3:00pm  USD  JOLTS Job Openings 
  6:00pm  USD  10-y Bond Auction 
       
Wed Oct-13  1:30pm  USD  CPI m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Core CPI m/m 
  6:01pm  USD  30-y Bond Auction 
  7:00pm  USD  FOMC Meeting Minutes 
       
Thu Oct-14  1:30am  AUD  Employment Change 
  1:30am  AUD  Unemployment Rate 
  1:30pm  USD  PPI m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Core PPI m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  4:00pm  OIL  Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Fri Oct-15  7:00am  GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index 
  3:00pm  USD  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
       
Mon Oct-18  2:15pm  USD  Industrial Production m/m 
  3:30pm  CAD  BOC Business Outlook Survey 
Tue Oct-19  1:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
       
Wed Oct-20  7:00am  GBP  CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  CPI m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Common CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Median CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Trimmed CPI y/y 
  3:30pm  OIL  Crude Oil Inventories 
  10:45pm  NZD  CPI q/q 
       
Thu Oct-21  1:30pm  USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 
  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
       
Fri Oct-22  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Services PMI 
  8:30am  EUR  German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8:30am  EUR  German Flash Services PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Services PMI 
  9:30am  GBP  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9:30am  GBP  Flash Services PMI 
  2:45pm  USD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  2:45pm  USD  Flash Services PMI 
       
Mon Oct-25  9:00am  EUR  German ifo Business Climate 
       
Tue Oct-26  1:30pm  USD  Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Durable Goods Orders m/m 
  3:00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
       
Wed Oct-27  1:30am  AUD  CPI q/q 
  1:30am  AUD  Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 
  3:00pm  CAD  BOC Monetary Policy Report 
  3:00pm  CAD  BOC Rate Statement 
  3:00pm  CAD  Overnight Rate 
  3:30pm  OIL  Crude Oil Inventories 
  Tentative  CAD  BOC Press Conference 
       
Thu Oct-28  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Outlook Report 
  Tentative  JPY  Monetary Policy Statement 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Press Conference 
  12:45pm  EUR  Monetary Policy Statement 
  12:45pm  EUR  Main Refinancing Rate 
  1:30pm  EUR  ECB Press Conference 
  1:30pm  USD  Advance GDP q/q 
  1:30pm  USD  Advance GDP Price Index q/q 
  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3:00pm  USD  Pending Home Sales m/m 
       
Fri Oct-29  8:00am  EUR  German Prelim GDP q/q 
  1:30pm  CAD  GDP m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Core PCE Price Index m/m 
  2:45pm  USD  Chicago PMI 
  3:00pm  USD  Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 
Sat Oct-30  Day 1  All  G20 Meetings 
       
Sun Oct-31  1:00am  CNH  Manufacturing PMI 
  Day 2  All  G20 Meetings 

Week Ahead: BoE & FOMC meets plus US retail sales

Week Ahead

The week ahead holds meetings for the FOMC in the US and the Bank of England, setting the tone for financial policy to come as the pandemic continues. Europe also releases a new wave of flash PMIs, while we also forecast what could happen in the US retail sector post-Black Friday. 

FOMC meets 

For the final time in 2020, the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to decide the direction of US monetary policy. 

The case for further Fed-sanctioned stimulus is being strengthened by disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls. About 245,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in November: great for non-pandemic times, but less than half of those predicted. 

Will the US economy start to struggle in December? It’s possible. 

Commentators have forecast two financial aspects the Fed could be considering in its next round of meetings: adjustments to its current asset buying programme, and a rejigging of its emergency lending programmes. 

First, assets. The Fed is currently hoovering up $80bn worth of Treasury securities and $40bn mortgage-backed securities every month. Yields at the short end of the Treasury curve remain well anchored near all-time lows. 

November’s meeting minutes suggest many FOMC members are more inclined to extend the maturity composition of its assets rather than increase the pace of purchases. 

With that in mind, it’s likely that the FOMC won’t announce any actual changes to its asset purchasing programme in December, but probably hint at alterations due in the coming months. 

Secondly, scaling back lending programmes may be on the agenda. Some $454 billion was approved for lending under the Trump White House’s CARES Act, but uptake was only around $6n. Essentially, the US government might want its money back. 

Bank of England meets too 

The BoE is gearing up for its final round of 2020 meetings too; meetings that could be coloured by the progress, or lack thereof, on a Brexit deal. 

Despite PM Johnson crashing into Brussels last week like Indiana Jones with a big whip in one hand and a skinny latte in the other to try and break the deadlock, “significant divergences” still remain between the UK and Europe. 

BoE governor Andrew Bailey has a lot on his plate as is, without the very tangible threat of a no-deal Brexit looming like an economic mushroom cloud. The Covid-19 pandemic continues, even with the UK starting the world’s first mass vaccination regime to combat the virus. 

What’s more, the UK’s GDP growth has taken a snail-like character after the cheetah-esque performance earlier in the year prior to lockdown 2.0, crawling up just 0.4% in the last quarter. 

The main hues being used to paint the UK’s economic portrait are slowing GDP growth, a no-deal Brexit and the continuing effects of the pandemic.  

All of this will no doubt play into the BoE’s talks and December outcomes.  

According to remarks he made to a Westminster committee in November 2020, Governor Bailey thinks of the those three, the biggest issue will be falling out of the EU with no deal. 

The long-term effects… I think would be larger than the long-term effects of Covid,” he said. 

“It is in the best interests of both sides…for there to be a trade agreement and for that trade agreement to have a strong element of goodwill around it in terms of how it is implemented.” 

US retail sales 

The latest batch of US retail sales data is released this coming week. 

Will they pick up? The previous couple of month’s performance has been less than stellar. October saw a 0.3% rise, hitting $553.33bn. September’s figures have been revised down by three tenths of a percentage to 1.6% growth – which is still strong, but perhaps not as strong as US retailers would hope. 

But there is a Black Friday-shaped ace up US retail’s extensive sleeves. American consumers spent $9bn online during the annual shopping frenzy, a y-o-y increase 21.6%. 

As ever in this crazy year, there is a twist in the tale. In-store footfall was down over half, according to Sensormatic Solutions, so while the see saw is tipped towards online shoppers, actual, physical shopping will likely be massively lower. 

Cyber Monday, though, was the single largest online shopping day on record in the US. Sales on the Black Friday follow up weighed in at $10.8bn, up 15% against 2019’s figures. 

Will this be enough to counter the slow growth and put US retail sales back on a positive footing? 

European PMIs 

It’s time for another round of flash European PMIs, and if the previous round is any indicator of current performance, we’re in for an expected second EU economic downturn. 

The return to lockdown has not been kind to Europe financially.  

As of November, Eurozone PMI had fallen from 50 to 45.1. Services continue to take the largest hit overall, according to ING, with Service PMI falling from 46.9 to 41.3 in November. Unemployment in the industry continues to rise and will likely do so until lockdowns are lifted. Let’s hope vaccines can start a European rollout soon. 

Still, manufacturing signals are stronger as a buoyant Germany helps keep things afloat. ING says the manufacturing PMI merely indicated a slowing of output growth, but not contraction.  

German export sales continued to the boost nation’s manufacturing growth in November in Germany, suggesting that the milder second wave outside of the eurozone is helping exporters to recover ground. 

Let’s wait and see what December’s flash PMIs bring. 

Brexit 

At the time of writing, we’re still yet to hear a decision on Brexit. A tete a tiny tete between Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen couldn’t shift the deadlock. As it stands, we’re still waiting for an end to this long, trying saga.  

Webinars to watch 

Trading pro Mark Leigh is once again holding a suite of educational trading-focussed webinars this week to help you get further insights into the nitty gritty of trading. Highlights include: 

Mark Leigh’s Trader Clinic 

Monday 14th December 2020 – 2.00pm GMT 

See how a professional uses the ups and downs of trading to hone their strategy and improve their returns with our Trader Clinic. Join Mark Leigh as he demonstrates the procedure he uses to evaluate his winning and losing trades and build a better strategy. 

Sign up 

Ten Trading Rules for Every Level of Trader 

Tuesday 15th December – 6.00pm GMT 

Trading is not an exact science, the markets are live and often unpredictable, that is why you need a set of rules as a basis for making educated and calculated trading decisions. 

Sign up 

Where is the Rand Going in 2021? 

Thursday 17th December  5.00pm GMT 

In light of Fitch’s recent downgrade of South Africa, there are increasingly question marks over whether the rand can hold current levels against the US dollar. Fitch’s downgrade reflected what is sees as high and rising government debt, exacerbated by the economic shock triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Does this mean a weaker currency next year? 

Sign up 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Mon Dec 14th  Ongoing  CNH  Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 
       
  10.00am  EUR  Industrial Production m/m 
       
Tue Dec 15th  12.30am   AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
       
  2.00am  CNH  Retail Sales y/y 
       
  7.00am  GBP  Unemployment Rate 
       
  2.15pm  USD  Industrial Production m/m 
       
  10.00pm  AUD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
       
  10.00pm  AUD  Flash Services PMI 
       
Wed Dec 16th  12.30am  JPY  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
       
  7.00am  GBP  CPI y/y 
       
  8.15am  EUR  French Flash Services PMI 
       
  8.15am  EUR  French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
       
  8.30am  EUR  German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
       
  8.30am  EUR  German Flash Services PMI 
       
  9.00am  EUR  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
       
  9.00am  EUR  Flash Services PMI 
       
  9.30am  GBP  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
       
  9.30am  GBP  Flash Services PMI 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  CPI m/m 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Retail Sales m/m 
       
  2.45pm  USD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
       
  2.45pm  USD  Flash Services PMI 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
  7.00pm  USD  FOMC Economic Projections 
       
  7.00pm  USD  FOMC Statement 
       
  7.30pm  USD  FOMC Press Conference 
       
Thu Dec 17th  12.30am  AUD  Employment Change 
       
  12.30am  AUD  Unemployment Change 
       
  9.00am  CHF  SNB Press Conference 
       
  12.00pm  GBP  MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 
       
  12.00pm  GBP  Monetary Policy Summary 
       
  12.00pm  GBP  Official Bank Rate 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri Dec 18th  Tentative  JPY  Monetary Policy Statement 
       
  7.00am  GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  Retail Sales m/m 

 

Key earnings data 

Date  Company  Event 
Tue Dec 15th  Nordson  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Inditex  Q3 2020 Earnings 
     
Wed Dec 16th  Lennar  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Thu Dec 17th  Accenture  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  FedEx  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Cintas  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  General Mills  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Fri Dec 18th  Nike  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Carnival  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Darden Restaurants  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Oracle Japan  Q2 2021 Earnings 

Week Ahead: Brexit deal on the horizon? Plus Spending Review & PMIs take focus

Week Ahead

Brexit tops the agenda, again, this week as a deal might finally be on the horizon. Elsewhere, Chancellor Sunak is ready to showcase the latest government spending review, while PMI releases come thick and fast across the UK, EU and US. What will next week bring?

Brexit

A final end to Brexit negotiations may be in sight after years of posturing and circular negotiations. Michel Barnier is expected to brief member states on Friday 27th November. Could a deal really be struck?

The UK has finally been willing to compromise on key sticking points, such as competition rules.

Optimism has also been caused in the reshuffling of the senior government advisor deck as the more hardcore “leave at any cost” voices in Number 10 have lost a lot of their loudness.

But any optimistic feeling should be cooled by scepticism. This still a very big maybe. Certain countries, like France, may object to fisheries outcomes, and keep negotiations going.

GBP/USD is currently holding at over 1.32, but any further rallies could be tempered by the fierceness of UK/EU negotiations at this stage.

It’s clear we’re not out of the Brexit woods yet, so what will next week bring?

Spending Review

November 25th will see UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak conclude his 2020 Annual Spending Review.

Essentially, it will act as a watered-down Autumn Statement, and provide a look into government spending plans for the coming months.

This is a one-year spending review, rather than the normal 3 to –4-year outlook. After all, 2020 hasn’t exactly been a “normal” year, and spending has taken a different tack to regular outlooks as the country continues its pandemic battle.

The spending review’s key talking points are:

  • How will he treat coronavirus spending – Will he create a separate “Covid reserve” fund for instance?
  • The shape of Brexit spending plans – With a deal still looming, what will Brexit-related spending look like?
  • The overall generosity of the Chancellor’s spending plans – How deep will he dig into the UK’s pockets?
  • What happened to prior commitments – Has he actually stuck to prior spending promises?
  • The state of public sector pay – Will front line workers see extra in their pay packets?
  • Infrastructure & investment – Will we be seeing any extra infrastructure spending, especially in light of the proposed 2030 ban on internal-combustion vehicle sales?
  • Broader outlook for tax, spending, and public finances – What are his more general plans, and how will the pandemic shake them up?

PMIs

It’s a PMI bonanza next week. New data will be released by EU member states, the US, and the UK.

October’s PMI release was full of optimism for the US, indicating that its economy was still growing strongly that month. Manufacturing, in particular, performed well. Business overall express positive sentiment, as it eyes up further stimulus packages.

The EU outlook was not so rosy. October data has put forecasts in a recessionary mood. Manufacturing is below the global index, while services continue to struggle in lockdown phase 2. A double-dip could be on the way in Q4, but we’ll have to see what the new data brings up.

The UK also faced a backslide after an optimistic September. October brought similar conditions to the EU, with services slipping and manufacturing also underperforming. Output is roughly now 10% under pre-pandemic levels.

US economic data

In addition to its PMI releases, the US has more economic confidence indicators up its sleeves to reveal next week.

Firstly, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence data will be unveiled. October’s edged forward against September’s, and perhaps the PMI optimism will leak into higher consumer confidence?

A new batch of US unemployment data will also be released. Unemployment claims have been fluctuating in recent weeks but appear to be on a downward trend. Claims from week beginning November 9th moved from 757,000 to 709,000, so will the slide continue?

Major Economic Data

Date Time (GMT) Currency Event
Sun Nov 22 9:45pm NZD Retail Sales q/q
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q
10:00pm AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI
AUD Flash Services PMI
Mon Nov 23 All Day JPY Bank Holiday
8:15am EUR French Flash Services PMI
EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Services PMI
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR Flash Services PMI
9:30am GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP Flash Services PMI
2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
USD Flash Services PMI
Tue Nov 24 7:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q
7:45am EUR French Prelim GDP q/q
9:00am EUR German ifo Business Climate
11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
Wed Nov 25 12:30am AUD Construction Work Done q/q
5:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y
EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
1:30pm USD Prelim GDP q/q (second release)
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD Goods Trade Balance
USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
3:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
USD New Home Sales
USD Personal Income m/m
USD Personal Spending m/m
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
Tentative GBP UK One Year Spending Review
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories
5:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu Nov 26 12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate
Tentative GBP Monetary Policy Report Hearings
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
All Day USD Bank Holiday
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Fri Nov 27 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
EUR French Prelim CPI m/m

Key Earnings Data

Date Company Event
23-Nov Prosus N.V. Q2 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Medtronic PLC Q2 2021 Earnings
23-Nov Naspers Interim results
25-Nov Deere & Co. (John Deere) Q4 2020 Earnings
24-Nov Xiaomi Q3 2020 Earnings
24-Nov VMware Inc. Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Autodesk Inc. Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Analog Devices Inc. Q4 2020 Earnings
24-Nov Dell Technologies Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov Compass Group plc Finals
24-Nov AO World Interim results
24-Nov Best Buy Co. Inc. Q3 2021 Earnings
24-Nov HP Inc (HPQ) Q4 2020 Earnings
24-Nov Dollar Tree Inc Q3 2020 Earnings
25-Nov United Utilities Interim results

Week Ahead: Tesla Battery Day to spark investor interest

Week Ahead

Tesla hosts its long-awaited and much-hyped Battery Day on Tuesday, with investors eyeing a possible game-changing technology announcement. Meanwhile the economic data stream flows with flash PMIs for the Eurozone, a Reserve of Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and the weekly US jobs report.

Fed chair Jay Powell and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey are both due to speak in the coming days after last week’s FOMC and MPC meetings. 

Tesla Battery Day

Tesla’s 2020 annual meeting of stockholders will be held on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, at 13:30 Pacific Time. Immediately after this meeting, Tesla will hold the Battery Day event, which has been generating equal amounts of speculation in the shares as in what CEO Elon Musk may be about to reveal. 

Our full guide to the event can be found here.

How is the economic recovery going?

Is the global economic recovery losing momentum? Whilst the snapback after lockdowns was the easy bit, it’s going to be much harder to get back to 2019 levels. Marginal gains are becoming harder to come by and some high frequency economic indicators are starting to level off. Eurozone PMIs for instance, have started to soften.

The latest round of flash manufacturing and services surveys for the Eurozone, UK and US are due on Wednesday. Meanwhile traders will be watching the weekly US jobless claims numbers as closely as ever on Thursday, while US durable goods orders on Friday offer a useful leading indicator of business demand.

How are central banks responding?

Last week the Federal Reserve and Bank of England signalled they are ready to do more as required and interest rates are set to stay low for a long time. This week sees the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in action after the country posted its worst recession in decades.

The country’s economy shrank by 12.2% between April and June, the steepest decline since the current system of measurement began in 1987 as strict national lockdown measures crippled activity.

The RBNZ has been looking at negative rates with assistant governor Christian Hawkesby saying last month that the central bank is “preparing the groundwork” for additional policy tools, which include negative rates. Will they make the leap now, or will they gauge that the economy will bounce back thanks to the very low number of cases? 

Highlights on XRay this Week 

Read the full schedule of financial market analysis and training.

15.00 UTC 21-Sep Tesla Battery Day Preview
17.00 UTC 21-Sep Blonde Markets
17.00 UTC 22⁠⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Webinar: Identify Trends and Choose Technical Indicators
14.45 UTC 24⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Master the Markets
17.00 UTC 24⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Election2020 Weekly

Key Events this Week

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week. A full economic and corporate events calendar is available in the platform.

06:00 UTC 

22-Sep  Kingfisher – Half-Year Results 
14.00 UTC  22-Sep  Eurozone Consumer Confidence 
02.00 UTC  23-Sep  Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 
07.15 – 08.00 UTC  23-Sep  Eurozone Flash Services / Manufacturing PMIs 
Pre-Market  23-Sep  General Mills – Q1 2021 
08.30 UTC 23-Sep  UK Flash Services / Manufacturing PMIs 
14.30 UTC 23-Sep  US EIA Crude Oil Inventories 
23.50 UTC  23-Sep  Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes 
08.00 UTC  24-Sep  German Ifo Business Climate 
Pre-Market  24-Sep  Accenture – Q4 2020 
12.30 UTC 24-Sep  US Weekly Jobless Claims 
14.30 UTC  24-Sep  US EIA Natural Gas Storage 
After-Market  24-Sep  Costco Wholesale Corp – Q4 2020 
11.00 UTC  25-Sep  Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 
12.30 UTC 25-Sep  US Durable Goods Orders 

 

Don’t become immune to what’s going on

Morning Note

We all want a vaccine to Covid-19 to be made, but let’s not become immune to the bad data. It’s very easy to be inoculated against the collapse in economic activity because we’ve had nothing but bad news for 6 months; what you could term the ‘new normal’.

Just as we are at risk of sleepwalking into a lower level of existence, worse education outcomes for our children, persistently lower incomes and reduced social interactions against our will, it’s far too easy to watch the economic data and think it’s not so bad after all. The truth is it remains shocking and will get worse.

UK debt rises, Spanish firms teeter on the brink of collapse

UK debt has risen above £2 trillion, or 100.5% of GDP. This need not be a problem in itself – governments in control of their own currency don’t need to ‘pay it back’ by returning to austerity and raising taxes. One in eight UK workers remains on furlough. Meanwhile 25% of Spanish businesses are in a ‘technical bankruptcy’, it was reported this morning. Germany wants to furlough workers for years, which would lead to a lost generation of zombie employees working at zombie companies. It needn’t be this way.

Weakness in US labour market highlights recovery obstacles

It was a soft initial claims print from the US Department of Labor – over 1.1m vs the sub-one-million number expected, which highlights the lumpy nature of the recovery now that the easy wins are behind us. However, the number of continuing claims and the unemployment rate were better.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 10.2% for the week ending August 8th, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week’s 10.6%. Continuing claims were down over 600k to 14.8m, which was a tad better than the 15m anticipated. Giving with one hand but taking away with the other, but jobless claims are still extraordinarily high.

Wall Street hooked on stimulus

Of course, stocks don’t really care much. The Federal Reserve has successfully killed off bear markets as comprehensively as the passenger pigeon. If we define a bear market as when the S&P 500 declines 20% from its previous peak and ends when it reaches a trough and then subsequently rises 20%, then the 2020 bear market was by far and away the shortest on record.

The FTSE 100, which is a much better proxy for economic growth than the US markets are, has languished and is struggling to hold onto the 6,000 level this morning. Indeed equity markets in Europe were mixed after a solid session in Asia. Wall Street was a little higher yesterday as investors continue to hold grimly to record highs.

Eurozone PMIs undershoot expectations

A slew of Eurozone PMIs disappointed. Confidence in France seemed a good deal weaker than expected. The Manufacturing PMI fell under 50, indicating businesses are less confident than they were the previous month. Rising Covid cases in Europe and worries about a big second wave were cited. Germany’s survey was more positive but still fell short of expectations. PMIs may show lots more confidence, or they may not. But as detailed in the week ahead, there is so much wrong with these diffusion indices that we should be paying too much attention to them.

European equity indices opened higher, dropped sharply after the French miss and recovered on the more robust German figures. The euro fell on the softer-than-forecast PMIs, while sterling was close to its recent highs after putting in a strong session yesterday afternoon and overnight in Asian trade. Cable was a little softer having risen as high as 1.32550.

EIA Crude Inventories Preview: Crude oil back below $41 after mixed API data

Commodities

Crude oil rose to test $41 yesterday as markets bet on a stronger-than-expected recovery in demand, with the actions of OPEC+ continuing to provide support. It was the highest since March 6th, although crude has today opened below $40.50 and briefly dipped below the $40 handle. Will today’s EIA crude oil inventories data given WTI some direction?

Data yesterday from the American Petroleum Institute indicated a 1.7 million barrel increase in US oil stocks. Analysts had forecast a rise of 300,000 barrels. Even though the data showed a higher-than-expected build, the injection was still the lowest for three weeks. The report also showed gasoline inventories fell, pointing to increased demand for fuel.

Yesterday’s run of PMIs from across the globe has helped reignite hopes of a quick economic rebound:

  • Australia’s services and composite indices unexpectedly leapt back into growth territory with readings above 50, while the manufacturing index printed just 0.2 points shy of the neutral level.
  • The French manufacturing, services, and composite indexes all blew past forecasts to return to growth.
  • PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone, while continuing to indicate a decline in output, rose further-than-expected to signal a slower pace of contraction than forecast.
  • The UK manufacturing sector grew fractionally in June, after the index recovered much further than analysts had predicted. Services and the composite index also bettered forecasts, although they still pointed to a decline.
  • US manufacturing shrank marginally in June, although the reading still beat expectations.

The readings helped improve the demand outlook. This, combined with support from a move towards greater compliance with production cuts from OPEC and its allies, helped crude oil hit three month highs yesterday, before profit-taking forced a retreat back towards $40.

Also supporting oil this week are revised average price forecasts for 2020 from Bank of America Global Research. Its average price forecast for WTI crude oil is now $39.70, an increase of nearly $8 per barrel.

Equity markets whipsaw on US-China trade uncertainty

Morning Note

It’s over, it’s not over: The White House looked to be as dysfunctional as ever as Peter Navarro, trade adviser to President Trump, said the US-China trade deal was over, prompting a sharp fall in risk assets in trading during the Asian session. He was forced to retract the statement, saying it was taken out of context, before Donald Trump himself quickly tweeted:

The reality is of course the US-China relations are exceptionally poor, but on paper at least, the trade deal lives. The market wouldn’t like fresh open conflict on trade between the two world’s largest economies, as it would make recovery from the pandemic even slower. Navarro may speak the truth, but it’s an inconvenient truth that the White House would prefer to avoid right now. Markets are happy to nod along as long as the Fed has their back.

Overnight, equity markets were whipsawed by the comments from Mr Navarro, but Asian stocks eventually rallied. US stocks edged higher on Monday but stayed well within the recent ranges; futures were all over the place overnight.

Europe opens higher, but second-wave risks cloud outlook

European stocks opened firmer having slipped yesterday, again though sticking to the near-term ranges. Whilst the FTSE is trading in the range and favouring the 61.8% level over the 38.2%, the market has made a series of success lower highs that may indicate bulls are not feeling very confident about recovering the post-pandemic highs any time soon. Rallies are still lacking conviction, but dips are still being bought.

Further increases in cases across big economies make the outlook uncertain. US cases continue to surge, while South Korea says it is in the midst of a second wave that arrived sooner than previously thought. Meanwhile England is set for reopening of pubs, restaurants and more on July 4th.

Pound hits resistance at 1.25, BoE governor Bailey due to speak later

In FX, the pound is higher having apparently found a near-term trough around the 1.2340 area. GBPUSD pushed up to 1.25 but hit resistance here and has retraced a little to the 1.2450 support area on the 50% retracement of the May-Jun rally. Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, speaks today after giving some policy hints yesterday in an article in which he said the Old Lady was more likely to reduce its balance sheet before raising rates.

He also was widely reported to have said the Government could have run out of cash had it not been for the central bank, which is patently untrue, since governments which borrow and print their own currency cannot run out of money – what the Bank did was smooth out the functioning of bond and currency markets.  Indeed what Mr Bailey said was not that the government would run out of money – he knows it cannot; his comments were widely misreported and misinterpreted in the press.

Euro spikes on French PMI strength

The euro took off higher after French PMI data went over 50, signalling expansion. The PMIs are a bit of a wonky indicator right now given they are entirely sentiment-based and ask only a narrow question – whether things are better, worse or the same as the prior month.

Given the reopening of the economy in the last few weeks, it would be very strange indeed if the PMIs were not improving – it does mean the economy is out of the woods. EURUSD drove up to 1.13 but hit resistance here and turned back.

Gold eased a little off its highs above $1760 but looks well support around $1750. US benchmark real rates – 10yr Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) – fell again, slipping to –0.63%, the lowest level in 7 years. Crude oil was firmer above $40 and managed to make a fresh post-negative-pricing high.

Week Ahead: Sharp rebound for US durable goods, sentiment and PMIs on the up

Week Ahead

There’s plenty on the economic calendar this week to keep markets busy even in the (unlikely) event the headlines are quiet. Confidence data from Europe, PMIs from across the world, and some key US goods orders and spending figures will help to shape our understanding of the continuing impact of Covid-19 and the trajectory of the recovery. 

Eurozone consumer, business confidence surveys

The latest sentiment data from Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be closely watched. The easing of lockdown restrictions and the reopening of more businesses is expected to help both business and consumer sentiment to improve, although it goes without saying that overall both groups are still highly pessimistic. 

The flash Eurozone consumer confidence reading for June is expected to improve to -16 from -18.8 in May. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index is forecast to hit 85.1 – up from 79.5 previously, while the GfK consumer measure is expected to print at -12 for July after the -18.9 reading recorded for June. 

Flash PMIs to help shape expectations for Q2 GDP

Tuesday brings a deluge of flash services and manufacturing PMIs. The latest figures are due from the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. Although subject to revision, the latest numbers will help to refine expectations for those all-important Q2 GDP numbers. 

Sharp increases are expected across the board, as reopening economies help slow the tumble in services in particular. 

US durable goods orders to rebound

Having recently seen a huge jump in employment and retail sales that shattered expectations, it seems likely this week’s US durable goods orders data will show a strong rebound too. 

Like most data, orders had collapsed over the past couple of months at a rate not seen in years. The reopening of the US economy and improving prospects for some consumers and businesses is likely to translate into a sharp rebound. Analysts expect to see orders jump 7.1%, although as with all rebounds after a sharp drop, there will still be a long way to go before we’re back to pre-crisis levels. 

Unemployment claims are also due on Thursday. The consensus is for another slowdown in claims growth, with a further 1.3 million new claims expected. This would mark the first time since the record 6.86 million jump recorded in the last full week of March that new weekly claims have been below 1.5 million. 

US personal spending to climb on easing restrictions, higher employment

Personal income surged in April, recording a 10.5% leap thanks to government relief programmes, although this didn’t translate to increased consumer outlay, with spending dropping -13.6%. Consumers stashed this extra cash, with the savings rate up 33% on the previous month. 

Incomes are expected to have fallen -5% in May without the help of so much government relief, while spending is forecast up 3%.

Highlights on XRay this Week 

Read the full schedule of financial market analysis and training.

07.15 UTC Daily European Morning Call
17.00 UTC 22-Jun Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends
From 15.30 UTC 23-Jun Weekly Gold, Silver, and Oil Forecasts
17.00 UTC 23-Jun Introduction to Currency Trading – Is it For Me?
14.45 UTC 25-June Master the Market with Andrew Barnett

 

Key Events this Week

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

14.00 UTC 22-Jun Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence
07.15 UTC 23-Jun Eurozone/ DE/ FR Flash Services, Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 UTC 23-Jun UK Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs
13.45 UTC 23-Jun US Flash Manfacturing/Services PMI
03.00 UTC 24-Jun RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
08.00 UTC 24-Jun German ifo Business Climate
14.30 UTC 24-Jun US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
06.00 UTC 25-Jun German GfK Consumer Climate
12.30 UTC 25-Jun US Durable Goods Orders
00.30 UTC 25-Jun US Unemployment Claims
14.30 UTC 25-Jun US EIA Natural Gas Storage
Pre-Market 25-Jun Accenture Plc – Q3 2020, McCormick & Co – Q2 2020
12.30 UTC 26-Jun US PCE, Personal Spending, Personal Income
14.00 UTC 26-Jun Revised University of Michigan Sentiment Index

Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs

Week Ahead

We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked. 

We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about. 

Japan Q1 GDP estimate 

Preliminary Q1 GDP data for Japan is due early on Monday, but as with all Q1 growth data it will serve as the prelude to something much worse. The economy is expected to have contracted -1.2% on the quarter, after a -1.8% decline in the final three months of 2019. Annualised growth is expected to print at -4.6%, again a slowdown from the -7.1% drop recorded in 2019 Q4. 

Forecasts for Q2 expect a 22% decline, the worst since the end of the Second World War. Will the Q1 figures give us any indication of how accurate those estimates might be, or will markets ignore the data and wait for more clarity? 

How many UK jobs have been lost in lockdown? 

The UK reports jobless claims data for April, when the workforce suffered an entire month of lockdown. The number of people filing jobless claims grew by over 12,000 in March: April’s figure is likely to print around 650,000. Unemployment rate figures are also scheduled, but these cover March and so are extremely backwards-looking by this point. A little later on Tuesday morning, the Labour Productivity Index for the first quarter is expected to print at -2.6%. 

UK inflation set to collapse 

April UK inflation data will feel the impact of collapsing retail sales, shuttered businesses, climbing unemployment and furloughed workers. Annualised price growth is expected to slump from 1.5% in May to 0.2% last month, with prices predicted to shrink -0.7% on the month after stagnating in April. The core inflation rate is predicted to drop to 1% on an annualised basis and -0.3% on the month. The contraction in producer prices is predicted to have accelerated to -3.9% on the year, and to have doubled to -0.4% on the month. 

High hopes for Walmart, Home Depot earnings 

Markets think Walmart and Home Depot are well-positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Both stocks are over 4% higher year-to-date at the time of writing, compared to a -13% drop for the S&P 500. Walmart actually hit record highs at the end of April. 

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Walmart saw a 20% increase in sales during March alone. Markets clearly expect a lot from the leading retailers, but can Walmart and Home Depot deliver? 

Both Walmart and Home Depot have “Strong Buy” ratings according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Walmart has an average price target of $132.79 which represents a 7% upside on prices at the time of writing. Home Depot has a target price of $238.15, a 4% upside. 

Lowe’s, Target, and Best Buy are amongst the other companies reporting this week. 

FOMC meeting minutes 

We already know a lot more about the current thinking of the Federal Reserve thanks to last week’s speech from chair Jerome Powell. The minutes of the meeting at the end of April could be moot: Powell’s speech gave away what would likely have been the headlines from the minutes, namely that it was likely more stimulus would be necessary, but negative interest rates are not something being considered at this time. 

Eurozone economic sentiment set to go negative again 

April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany unexpectedly leapt back into positive territory. Assessment of current conditions remained dire, but investors began to focus on recovery. 

But the reality of the recession that lies between where we are now and where we’re trying to get back to is expected to hit sentiment hard again this month, with the German reading forecast to plummet back to -14 and the Eurozone wide reading dropping to -10. 

UK PMIs headed lower, Eurozone set to bounce off lows 

This week we get the flash PMI readings for May. UK manufacturing is expected to drop to 26.6, while the services index will slip to 9. The overall composite PMI is expected to drop from 13.8 to 9.2. 

Manufacturing and services in the Eurozone and its member states, however, are expected to rebound from their lows as economies began relaxing lockdown measures. Germany’s manufacturing index is predicted to jump around 10 points to 45, while services is forecast to more than double to 37 points. Overall the composite index is expected to climb from 17.4 to 40. The Eurozone composite is expected to rise from 13.6 to 34. 

It’s worth remembering that these figures still represent a huge rate of contraction across all areas of the economy. The Eurozone economy may have bounced back from the initial shock of COVID-19, but there is still a long road ahead – and expectations for how long are getting bigger all the time.

Heads-Up on Earnings 

The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week: 

18-May Ryanair – FY 2020
Pre-Market 19-May Walmart – Q1 2021
Pre-Market 19-May Home Depot – Q1 2020
19-May Imperial Brands – Q2 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Lowe’s – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Target Corp – Q1 2020
Pre-Market 20-May Analog Devices – Q2 2020
20-May Experian – FY 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Medtronic – Q4 2020
Pre-Market 21-May Best Buy – Q1 2021
After-Market 21-May Intuit – Q3 2020
After-Market 21-May Ross Stores – Q1 2020
After-Market 21-May Agilent Technologies – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q2 2020
After-Market 21-May NVIDIA – Q1 2021
22-May Deere & Co – Q2 2020

Highlights on XRay this Week 

17.00 UTC   18-May  Blonde Markets
18.00 UTC  18-May   The Ten Rules of Trading
 15.30 UTC 19-May   Weekly Gold Forecast
 18.00 UTC 19-May Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends
11.00 UTC  20-May Midweek Lunch Wrap

Key Economic Events

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:

23.50 UTC 17-May Japan Preliminary Quarterly GDP
01.30 UTC 19-May RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
06.00 UTC 19-May UK Claimant Count Change / Unemployment Rate
09.00 UTC 19-May Germany / Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
06.00 UTC 20-May UK Inflation
12.30 UTC 20-May Canada Inflation
14.30 UTC 20-May US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
18.00 UTC 20-May FOMC Meeting Minutes
07.15 – 08.00 UTC 21-May FR, DE, Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 UTC 21-May UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
12.30 UTC 21-May US Jobless Claims
13.45 UTC 21-May US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
22.45 UTC 21-May New Zealand Quarterly Retail Sales
06.00 UTC 22-May UK Retail Sales
12.30 UTC 22-May Canada Core Retail Sales

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