Yields and central banks on the move

Central banks on the move: Norway’s central bank became the first in the G10 to raise rates after the pandemic, Turkey’s central bank – an outlier – lowered rates (to 18%), whilst the Bank of England and Federal Reserve sat on their hands but indicated they too are about to start moving. Yields are on the move too as bonds sell off on tightening expectations. Something has clearly changed and positioning on rates is shifting. US 10yr yields jumped to 1.44%, posting their biggest one-day gain since March, whilst 30yr bond yields jumped the most in a single day since March 2020. European bond yields are also marching higher.

Although the Fed and BoE remain fairly cautious and the dogma of transitory inflation persists, they’re starting to move beyond pandemic-era emergency mode. Investors see this and are moving too – rates steepening again as they did earlier this year. As we noted yesterday morning, whilst the initial reaction to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday saw the yield curve flatten, the steepening as the long end picks up is the natural response to the Fed turning more hawkish – it was not just earlier for lift-off but also more hikes in 2023/24. Investors are also betting on higher inflation for longer. US inflation expectations ticked higher too, hitting a month high, helping gold to fend off the move in nominal rates to trade around $1,750, having put in a near-term low at $1,737. The dollar also made a strong move lower yesterday, adding further support.

Stocks rallied on Wall Street, mega cap growth just underperforming a bit as yields rose, helping financials do well. The S&P 500 recovered the 50-day SMA at 4,437 and closed above at 4,448.98. Small caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 picking up almost 2% as reflation trade thinking resurfaced. Energy was the top performer on the S&P 500 again as crude oil (Nov) broke through $73, whilst Brent is testing a 3-year high. Natural gas is back above $5 this morning.

Stocks trade weaker in the early part of the session in Europe as investors digest the selloff in global bonds and look ahead to the uncertainty of the German election on Sunday, which may be a factor for the DAX today. Helen Thomas of BlondeMoney has an excellent preview on the topic for us. The FTSE 100 sits around 7,050, slap in the middle of the range it’s treaded since April. AstraZeneca shares rose 3% as its Lynparza cancer drug performed well in its PROpel Phase III trials. Shares in Hong Kong fell over 1% with Evergrande down 13% as it apparently missed a deadline for an interest payment of $83.5m on an offshore bond.

The US dollar is drifting higher this morning after yesterday’s selloff with near-term momentum positive having briefly hit its highest since Aug 20th. Tweeted yesterday about topping pattern for USD and yesterday’s (just about) outside day candle could be the reversal signal.

Dollar Index 24.09.2021

GBPUSD is holding most of yesterday’s gains but has just pared back a touch to trade at 1.3710 after hitting 1.3750.

GBPUSD Chart 24.09.2021

Sterling HOD, FTSE weaker as markets digest slightly hawkish BoE

After a bit of time to digest the Bank of England decision, it looks to have provided that hawkish pivot we’d anticipated. But I would not say it’s enough to really tell the market that it will fulfil its mandate to keep inflation in check and ensure longer-term inflation expectations remain in check. A missed opportunity, I would say, to get a better grip on inflation expectations.

Key points

• MPC votes 7-2 to maintain QE, unanimous on rates
• Ramsden joins Saunders in voting to scale back the QE programme to £840bn, ending it immediately
• CPI inflation is expected to rise further in the near term, to slightly above 4% in 2021 Q4 – and the BoE signalled greater risk it would be above target for most of 2022
• Overall, Bank staff had revised down their expectations for 2021 Q3 GDP growth from 2.9% at the time of the August Report to 2.1%, in part reflecting the emergence of some supply constraints on output
• Shift in forward guidance: MPC noted ‘some developments … [since the August Monetary Policy Report] … appear to have strengthened’ the case for tightening monetary policy.
• Rate hikes could come early, even before end of QE: “All members in this group agreed that any future initial tightening of monetary policy should be implemented by an increase in Bank Rate, even if that tightening became appropriate before the end of the existing UK government bond asset purchase programme.”

Market reaction thus far

• GBPUSD has rallied to highest since Monday off a month low and is looking to hold above 1.37, having risen one big figure today. Needs 1.3740 for bulls to regain control, big test here with trend support recently tested at the neckline. Question is this mildly hawkish pivot is enough to put the floor under GBP. I would still argue for softer dollar into year end allow GBP (and EUR) some scope to strengthen, particularly if the BoE is progressing towards raising rates sooner than previously thought.
• That sterling strength sent the FTSE 100 lower after a solid morning session, leaving the blue chips flat on the session, around 45pts off the highs of the day. Looking now for a lift from Wall St with US futures indicated higher: S&P 500 around 4420, Dow Jones at 34,460.
• 2yr gilt yields jumped to +0.3435% from around 0.28% earlier in the day as markets moved expectations for the first 15bps rate hike forward to Feb 2022.

GBPUSD chart 23.09.2021

Summary view

The BoE trying to tell what we already know without telling us what we already know; ie, that inflation is way stickier than they thought it would be. The BoE said “there are some signs that cost pressures may prove more persistent. Some financial market indicators of inflation expectations have risen somewhat”. Somewhat what? It’s all a bit wishy washy. The problem is the dogma of transient inflation is hard to shake without admitting that they were plain wrong on a very basic assessment of the economic outlook. “The committee’s central expectation continues to be that current elevated global cost pressures will prove transitory,” the statement from the BoE said.

Earlier, PMIs show across Europe and Britain growth momentum is waning, inflation is sticking. The UK composite PMI revealed further loss of growth momentum as output slowed to the weakest in 7 months, whilst the rate of input cost inflation accelerated and charges raised to the greatest extent on record.

Taken together with the PMIs this morning and the Fed last night we are presented with a very simple picture: growth is slowing, supply constraints are deepening, inflation is proving way more persistent than central banks anticipated. This could have important consequences for monetary policy going forward, but for now the CBs are still waiting it out and getting further behind the curve. A bitter pill today has been avoided, but the medicine required will be harder to swallow when it finally comes. Rates are going to need to rise to tame inflation.

Bank of England responds to hot inflation print

The Bank of England will need to respond to biggest jump in inflation on record when it convenes this week. Inflation accelerated to 3.2% in August from 2% in July, well above the central bank’s 2% target. Could this force the BoE to tighten monetary policy sooner than had been expected? A hawkish-sounding Bank of England would be a boost for sterling. In order to be hawkish enough to nudge sterling higher and show it’s prepared to kill inflation as required, the Bank probably ought to end QE now – as the now ex-MPC hawk Andy Haldane argued for last time around. There is a clear risk inflation will overshoot the 4% forecast, let alone the 2% goal. Unanchored inflation expectations are the worst possible outcome for a central bank they’ve been too slow to recognise the pandemic has completely changed the disinflationary world of 2008-2020. Hikes will be required too in the not too distant future and the bank should appreciate that a bitter pill now would be better than even harsher medicine later on. A jobs market with 1m vacancies does not suggest the UK economy is in trouble at the moment. Wage growth remains strong – albeit the picture is very complex due to furlough, the pandemic and base effects + inflation on real wages.

Does the bank go for a more hawkish signal? That is harder to say: it’s already well into a taper and markets anticipate the BoE will be raising rates 2-3 times over the next couple of years – does it need to do more than that? The question is whether the inflation ready has got the right kind of attention that it deserves or whether the BoE is ignoring the red flags. My own view, for what it’s worth, is that the Bank, just like the Fed, has allowed inflation overshoots to allow for the recovery, but it’s been too slow and too generous. Much like the response to the pandemic itself, the medicine (QE, ZIRP) being administered may be doing more harm (inflation) than good (growth, jobs).

Wochenausblick: Kündigt die Fed Rücknahmen ihrer Maßnahmen an?

Alle Blicke sind auf die Federal Reserve gerichtet und darauf, ob sie das FOMC-Treffen vom September dazu nutzen wird, die langerwartete Rücknahme der Anleihenkäufe zu verkünden. In der Zwischenzeit werden die heißen Inflations-Zahlen der letzten Woche die Bank of England zum Nachdenken gebracht haben, ob sie nicht eine falkenartigere Position beziehen sollte.

Kündigt die Fed eine Rücknahme der quantitative Lockerungen an?

Während die Märkte nicht erwarten, dass die Federal Reserve in Richtung einer Rücknahme der Anleihekäufe rast, besteht am Markt ein breiter Konsens darüber, dass sie ab November damit beginnen wird, das Tempo ihres QE-Programms zu reduzieren. Das bedeutet, dass das Treffen diese Woche ein geeigneter Moment für die Fed sein könnte, den Markt vorzuwarnen.

Die VPI-Inflation der letzten Woche trübte die Aussichten ein wenig – sie war etwas schwächer als erwartet, was der Fed etwas mehr Spielraum verschaffte. Die schwachen Arbeitsplatzzahlen für August könnten aber bedeuten, dass die Fed sich noch nicht zu einer Rücknahme im November verpflichten möchte. Sie könnten signalisieren, dass sie immer noch daran glauben, dass eine Rücknahme angemessen ist, ohne aber einen festen Zeitrahmen bekanntzugeben.

Die Anleger werden das größte Interesse daran haben, wie die politischen Entscheidungsträger das Tempo der Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt einschätzen und ob ihrer Meinung nach der Inflationsdruck permanenter ist als gedacht. Man wird die jüngsten Wirtschaftsaussichten genaustens auf Anzeichen dafür beobachten, ob die Fed ihre Meinung zur Geschwindigkeit der Inflation und zum Wachstum ändert.

Bank of England antwortet auf heiße Inflations-Zahlen

Die Bank of England wird beim Treffen diese Woche auf den größten je gemessenen Sprung der Inflation antworten müssen. Die Inflation beschleunigte sich von 2% im Juli auf 3,2% im August und liegt damit deutlich über dem Ziel der Zentralbank von 2%. Könnte das die BoE dazu zwingen, die Geldpolitik früher als erwartet anzuziehen? Eine falkenartige Bank of England wäre ein Schub für den Pfund Sterling.

Die wichtigsten Wirtschaftszahlen

Zusätzlich zum oben genannten warten die Märkte diese Woche gespannt auf eine Reihe wirtschaftlicher Daten, unter anderem eine neue Runde Flash-PMIs für die Euro-Zone, Großbritannien und die USA am Donnerstag. Die Bank of Japan wird sich auch bald wieder treffen. Gouverneur Kuroda merkte kürzlich an, dass die Zentralbank die Geldpolitik falls notwendig weiter lockern werde, etwa durch Zinssenkungen.

Geschäftsberichte von Nike und FedEx

Es stehen nicht mehr viele Geschäftsberichte im Kalender, aber es gibt Updates von Nike, FedEx und weiteren. Nike gab im Juni ein sehr starkes Q4-Ergebnis bekannt, was die Aktie auf Rekordhöhe schießen lies. Verkäufe im vierten Quartal stiegen 96% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr und 21% im Vergleich zu 2019. Die Gewinnmargen verbessern sich durch den greifenden Wandel des Unternehmens zu einer direkten Versorgung des Verbrauchers hin ebenfalls. „Das Finanzjahr 2021 war ein unglaublich wichtiges für NIKE, da wir unsere Consumer Direct Acceleration Strategy an den Markt gebracht haben,“ sagte CEO John Donahoe. Allerdings sind Aktien in letzter Zeit wegen Sorgen über Probleme bei den Lieferketten gefallen, so sind in der Produktion in Vietnam Millionen Einheiten durch Covid verloren gegangen.

„Im Laufe seiner Geschichte war die Aktie von Nike sehr eng mit dem Umsatzwachstum korreliert. Daher glauben wir, dass die Aktie von Nike mit zunehmenden Beweisen dafür, dass die Verkäufe wahrscheinlich ins Stocken geraten werden, bestenfalls Wasser treten wird, bis mehr Klarheit über die Produktionsprobleme besteht, und im schlimmsten Fall unter einer reduzierten Verkaufsprognose und der daraus resultierenden Mehrfachkompression leiden wird“, sagten BTIG-Analysten in einer Notiz, in der die Aktie auf neutral herabgestuft wurde.

Es erwarten uns außerdem Geschäftsberichte von Adobe, General Mills und Costco.

Top Wirtschafts-Daten

Mon Sep 20  12:01am  GBP  Rightmove HPI m/m 
  All Day  JPY  Japan Bank Holiday 
  All Day  CNH  China Bank Holiday 
  7:00am  EUR  German PPI m/m 
  Tentative  EUR  German Buba Monthly Report 
  3:00pm  USD  NAHB Housing Market Index 
  All Day  CAD  Canada Federal Election 
  10:00pm  NZD  Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
Tue Sep 21  All Day  CNH  China Bank Holiday 
  2:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
  7:00am  CHF  Trade Balance 
    GBP  Public Sector Net Borrowing 
  11:00am  GBP  CBI Industrial Order Expectations 
  1:30pm  CAD  NHPI m/m 
    USD  Building Permits 
    USD  Current Account 
    USD  Housing Starts 
  2:00pm  CNH  CB Leading Index m/m 
  3:30pm  AUD  CB Leading Index m/m 
  Tentative  NZD  GDT Price Index 
Wed Sep 22  Tentative  JPY  Monetary Policy Statement 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Policy Rate 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Press Conference 
  2:00pm  CHF  SNB Quarterly Bulletin 
  3:00pm  EUR  Consumer Confidence 
    USD  Existing Home Sales 
  3:30pm  Oil  Crude Oil Inventories 
  7:00pm  USD  FOMC Economic Projections 
    USD  FOMC Monetary Policy Statement 
  7:30pm  USD  FOMC Press Conference 
Thu Sep 23  12:00am  AUD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    AUD  Flash Services PMI 
  All Day  JPY  Japan Bank Holiday 
  Tentative  EUR  German Import Prices m/m 
  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    EUR  French Flash Services PMI 
  8:30am  CHF  SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 
    CHF  SNB Policy Rate 
    EUR  German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    EUR  German Flash Services PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    EUR  Flash Services PMI 
    EUR  ECB Economic Bulletin 
  9:30am  GBP  UK Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    GBP  UK Flash Services PMI 
  12:00pm  GBP  Bank of England monetary policy decision 
  1:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
    CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
    USD  US unemployment Claims 
  2:45pm  USD  US Flash Manufacturing PMI 
    USD  US Flash Services PMI 
  3:00pm  USD  CB Leading Index m/m 
  3:30pm  Nat Gas  Natural Gas Storage 
  10:45pm  NZD  Trade Balance 
Fri Sep 24  12:01am  GBP  GfK Consumer Confidence 
  12:30am  JPY  National Core CPI y/y 
  1:30am  JPY  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  7:00am  EUR  German GfK Consumer Climate 
  9:00am  EUR  German ifo Business Climate 
  3:00pm  USD  New Home Sales 

 

 

Stocks start the session weaker

Stocks in Europe are a tad weaker at the open after Monday’s rally, sticking to the recent well-worn ranges. US trading returns today with futures indicating a flattish open. There was a decent session in Asia overnight spurred on by strong data from China with the Nikkei 225 touching 30,000 for the first time since April, and the Topix hitting a 31-year high as the technical breakout from last week continues. Stocks in Shanghai and Shenzen were also up +1%. Despite all the worries about supply chains and Delta, Chinese exports surged in August by 25.6% year-on-year, up from the 19.3.% increase in July and beating the forecast of 17.1%. Sticking with China for a moment, shares in Evergrande, the indebted real estate giant, sank further to the weakest since 2015 as the fallout from its default risk continues to ripple through the property sector, where bond yields are rising fast. 

 

With stock futures doing little in the US and coming off the back of a three-day weekend, the focus will be on the cash equity open later on Wall Street in the wake of Friday’s disappointing jobs report and the lapsing of those last $300 stimulus cheques.  Still the relentless low-vol grind up is holding and Barclays today has lifted its S&P 500 price target to 4600 from 4400. Question is whether Sep/Oct produces a spike in volatility. A 3% drawdown – mild by anyone’s standards – takes you back to the 50-day SMA support that has held up so well this year, while a 10% correction tests the 200-day SMA. Technicals at the moment indicate sideways action and a loss of upwards momentum – merely a question of timing as to when we get a rollover. 

 

Interesting comments from the Bank of England’s Michael Saunders this morning, who said it might be right to think of rates going up in the next year or so. He indicated that the economy was already about the same size as it was before the pandemic, that inflation has been stronger than expected, and that the country does not need as much stimulus as previously. However, it should be noted that Saunders is about the most hawkish on the nine-member MPC so does not speak for the central consensus. I don’t think it tells us much we don’t already know but it underscores the conundrum facing central banks today as to when to ease off the gas. Saunders makes an important point in noting that continuing asset purchases when inflation is 4% might cause medium-term inflation expectations to drift higher, which could cause a more severe monetary policy response down the road. If central banks don’t get a grip on it now, they could be faced with bigger problems later – but they are all deeply paranoid about choking off recovery too soon. GBPUSD tried to rally on the comments but quickly reversed to hit its weakest since Sep 2nd. 

 

E-commerce winner DS Smith shares rose after the company said trading remains strong with solid box volume growth over 2019 levels, particularly in the US and southern Europe. But input costs continue to rise with management mentioning notable increases in the cost of energy and transportation. ‘Given the strong demand for our packaging we have seen good progress towards recovering these increases,’ the company said. Shares rallied over 2% in early trade.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its taper but will extend the purchase of bond purchases at $4bn a week from Nov 2021 to Feb 2022.  The RBA said the decision ‘reflects the delay in the economic recovery and the increased uncertainty associated with the Delta outbreak’. Looks like the RBA is trying to neutralise the taper they announced recently without actually rowing it back.  

 

Oil prices just tracking sideways after running into the near-term trend resistance last week. Bullish MACD crossover is still in play but momentum clearly drifting. Saudi price cut has tamed bulls but growth in Chinese exports is a +ve.

Spot Oil Chart 07.09.2021

Bank of England maintains dovish stance, raises inflation forecasts

The Bank of England today confirmed it would continue with its economy-boosting measures but said higher inflation is on the way.

Bank of England statement

Staying the course

Today, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the historic low-interest rate in place. There will be no move from the current 0.1% base rate. Additionally, members voted 7-1 to keep the £895bn quantitative easing programme in place.

Policymakers struck a cautiously optimistic tone at today’s Bank of England press conference. However, Governor Bailey and council members did signal policy will be subject to modest tightening from here on out.

The BoE also raised its inflation forecasts. Economists were expecting this, given CPI has passed targets for two consecutive months.

In its monetary policy report, the Bank of England said: “Overall, Bank staff now expect inflation to rise materially further in the near term, temporarily reaching 4% in 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1, 1½ percentage points higher than in the May projection.”

The report also outlined that the recent acceleration in CPI inflation is mainly due to volatility in energy and the prices of other goods. In the medium term, the Bank said it expects inflation to peter out and fall back to around its current 2% target.

Looking to GDP, the BoE forecasts 5% growth in Q2 2021 after a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter. This is slightly above what the Bank predicted in its May report. Even so, this would leave UK GDP some 4% lower than pre-pandemic levels.

GDP growth is forecast at 3% for Q3, in response to thousands of workers needing to isolate after Delta variant COVID-19 cases surged across the UK in recent weeks. However, COVID cases and hospitalisations have broadly fallen in the last month, giving some hope that the “pingdemic” is just a bump on the road to recovery.

According to the MPC, the economy will return to its pre-pandemic levels in the last quarter of the year. The pandemic’s impact is expected to have substantially lessened by then. At this time, GDP growth will cool and return to levels more normally seen in mature economies.

Unwinding QE

Quantitative easing-related purchases will be scaled back once the base rate reaches 0.5%, according to today’s policy outlook. At this time, the Bank will stop investing in maturing UK government bonds, but only if economic conditions are good enough.

This rate is substantially lower than the 1.5% rate earmarked in 2018.

In its policy report, the MPC forecast that its main interest rate would reach 0.5% in the third quarter of 2024, after hitting 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022 and 0.4% for the same period in 2023.

This comes after the Bank of England was recently dubbed “addicted to QE” by a House of Lords committee – something which Governor Bailey strenuously denies.

In all, a fairly positive report for the UK then. Sterling was up around the $1.925 level against the dollar after the Bank’s plans were made public and continued to build momentum at writing.

European stocks mixed ahead of earnings & BoE statement

Investors showed mixed sentiment this morning on a day that promises much in the way of earnings and central bank announcements.

At the time of writing, the FTSE 100 had retreated by over seven points. The DAX and CAC were performing much better, adding 17.8 and 22.38 points respectively. From a pan-European perspective, the Stoxx 50 was trading 17.00 upwards.

Many UK investors are essentially waiting for today’s Bank of England statements. Governor Bailey is due to outline the central bank’s monetary policy at midday today. Inflation is expected to be the day’s running theme.

Inflation has so far overshot established target levels for two consecutive months. The Bank’s response will be critical today. So far, there are two schools of thought predicting what the BoE might do. On one side, economists broadly think Bailey will up inflation targets. Investors, on the other hand, believe that the Bank will stick to a dovish tack, leaving its interest and QE stance unchanged.

UK CPI was up 0.5% in June on a month-by-month basis. This was way ahead of estimates and the fastest CPI growth rate reported since May 2018.

It’s likely the Bank of England is still feeling cautiously optimistic. It has predicted that inflation will peak at 3% in 2021 before falling away next year. The BoE says it has yet to see any evidence that the current acceleration in CPI is anything but transitionary.

Despite the surge in Delta variant COVID-19 cases across the last month, UK infection rates have broadly trended down throughout July and August. That gives some hope that the country will be able to return to full normality quicker than other economies. Pretty much all restrictions have been removed.

Ahead of today’s BoE announcement, GBP/USD had recaptured the 1.390 level. At the time of writing, cable had reached 1.394 and was up 0.19% on the day. Its future course will be decided later when we get more info on the Bank of England’s QE bond-buying stance.

EUR/USD had stayed mostly flat at 1.1837.

In terms of earnings, European large caps reporting today include Siemens, Adidas, Merck, Bayer, Intesa Sanpaolo and WPP.

Looking to US markets, the Nasdaq was showing positive movements, trending up nearly 20 points. The Dow Jones and S&P 500, however, were down pre-market, with the Dow sliding 0.9%. The S&P 500’s downward trend was in the 0.5% region at the time of writing.

On Wall Street, large caps reporting include Square and Virgin Galactic. You can find a rundown of the companies sharing earnings today with our US earnings season calendar.

Wochenausblick: Alle Augen auf den Bericht zum US-Arbeitsmarkt

Den Märkten steht eine volle Woche bevor, mit Zahlen zum US-Arbeitsmarkt als Hauptveranstaltung, sowie Stellungnahmen von zwei großen Zentralbanken.

Lassen Sie uns mit den jüngsten Zahlen zum US-Arbeitsmarkt beginnen.

Die Werte für Juni lagen über den Erwartungen und die Märkte werden noch genauer auf die Zahlen am Freitag gucken.

850.000 Arbeitsplätze sind im Juni zur US-Wirtschaft hinzugekommen – weit über den vorhergesagt 720.000. Das war außerdem der sechste Monat in Folge, in dem Neuzuwächse verzeichnet werden konnten.

Allerdings stieg die Arbeitslosenquote von 5,8% auf 5,9% – und damit über den vorhergesagten 5,6%. Teilnahme am Arbeitsmarkt, eine wichtige Kennzahl für die Feststellung von landesweiten Arbeitskraftknappheiten, steht weiterhin bei 61,6%.

Neuanstellungen scheinen insgesamt über den Frühling etwas zurückgegangen zu sein. Dafür gibt es einige Gründe: Angst vor dem Virus, Kosten für Kinderbetreuung, bessere Arbeitslosenversicherung, Konjunkturpakete und Urlaubsregelungen. Es gibt allerdings Berichte, dass Unternehmen ihre Gehälter angehoben haben, um Angestellte für neue Positionen zu gewinnen.

Die Beschäftigungsquote ist außerdem eine wichtige Kennzahl für den Fed-Vorsitzenden Jerome Powell, mit der Konjunkturpakete und Unterstützungsschwellen für die US-Wirtschaft bewertet werden können.

Wir wissen, dass Powell und Co kein Problem damit haben, die Wirtschaft heißlaufen zu lassen, selbst im Angesicht steigender Inflation. Wie Powell beim letzten Fed-Treffen betonte, fehlen der US-Wirtschaft noch 7,5 Millionen Arbeitsplätze, obwohl einige Berichte darauf hindeuten, dass es 6,8 Millionen sein könnten. Bis diese Lücke geschlossen ist, können wir mit weiteren Konjunkturpaketen und Unterstützung durch die Fed rechnen.

Was Indizes anbelangt, haben der S&P 500 und Nasdaq sehr gut auf die Rekordwerte vom letzten Monat zur Beschäftigung reagiert und haben neue Höhen erreicht. Händler von Indizes werden darauf hoffen, dass es im Juli genauso ist.

Um bei US-Zahlen zu bleiben, ISM, ein der wichtigsten Reporter für Einkaufsmanagerindizes für die US-Wirtschaft, veröffentlicht diese Woche Berichte zum produzierenden Gewerbe und Dienstleistungen.

Dem PMI-Bericht von ISM zufolge war die US-Produktion im vergangenen Monat noch robust, aber Versorgungsprobleme hemmen weiterhin das Wachstum. Die Zahlen für Fabriken lag bei 60,6 – ein Rückgang von den 61,2 vom Mai.

Der Trend ist immer noch stark. Vier der fünf Sub-Indizes, die von ISM bewertet werden, zeigen hohes Wachstum. Das Verbraucherinteresse an neuen Gütern ist immer noch hoch, trotz steigender Preise. Aber Arbeitskräftemangel in Verbindung mit steigenden Preisen für Rohstoffe und Materialien haben zu einem Flaschenhals und Knappheiten geführten, wodurch Produzenten Probleme haben, die Nachfrage zu bedienen.

„Rekordlange Vorlaufzeiten für Rohstoffe, weitreichende Verknappungen kritischer Grundstoffe, steigende Rohstoffpreise und Schwierigkeiten beim Transport von Produkten wirken sich weiterhin auf alle Segmente der verarbeitenden Wirtschaft aus“, sagte Timothy Fiore, Vorsitzender des ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Das gleiche kann auch für den Dienstleistungssektor gesagt werden: im Juni wuchs er, aber diese Wachstum hat sich im Vergleich zum Rekord-Mai abgeschwächt. In diesem Fall fiel der Index von 63,5 auf 60,1.

„Das Wachstumstempo im Dienstleistungssektor ist weiterhin stark, trotz des leichten Rückgangs gegenüber dem Allzeithoch im Vormonat“, erklärte der Vorsitzende des ISM Services Business Survey Committee Anthony Nieves. „Herausforderungen mit Materialknappheiten, Inflation, Logistik und Personal wirken sich weiterhin hemmend auf die Geschäftssituation aus.“

Diese Dynamik beizubehalten ist für die wirtschaftliche Gesundheit Amerikas von großer Bedeutung – zumal die USA voraussichtlich die treibende Kraft hinter der globalen Wirtschaftserholung für den Rest dieses Jahres und darüber hinaus sein werden.

Weg von den Zahlen: nächste Woche erwarten uns die Stellungnahmen zweier Zentralbanken.

Wir starten mit der Bank of England: Hier ist die steigende Inflation das große Thema.

Im Juni erreichte die Inflation 2,5%, dank eines breiten Anstiegs der Konsumgüter. Das könnte einfach nur aufgestaute Nachfrage sein, die jetzt in der britischen Wirtschaft ankommt, da die Inflation aber ihren höchsten Stand seit drei Jahren erreicht hat, könnten die Nerven der Ökonomen auf die Probe gestellt werden.

Gouverneur Bailey hat seine Position bereits klar kommuniziert: die Preissprünge sind nur vorübergehend und könnten bis zum Jahresende Höhen von bis zu 3% erreichen. Danach sollte es aber auf akzeptable Werte fallen. Derzeit hat die BoE das Mandat die Inflation auf 2% zuzuführen und sie dort zu halten.

Allerdings sagte Bailey, dass er bereit sei, einen Zinsanstieg anzugehen, sollte die Inflation außer Kontrolle geraten.

Die Reserve Bank of Australia teilte uns diese Woche außerdem ihre jüngsten Gedanken zur Geldmarktpolitik und Ausrichtung mit.

Vermutlich kommen keine großen Veränderungen. Gouverneur Philip Lowe war sehr deutlich, dass bis mindestens 2024 kein Zinsanstieg zu erwarten sei. Und das trotz der starken wirtschaftliche Grundlage Australiens.

Die historisch niedrige Zinsrate von 0,1% bleibt uns erhalten. Was allerdings Interessant ist, ist dass das Treffen vom Juli zu einigen Veränderungen des australischen Programm quantitativer Lockerungen geführt hat. Das Pendel ist zurück geschwungen. Ab September wird das Anleihen-Kauf-Programm der RBA von 5 Milliarden AUD auf 4 Milliarden AUD pro Woche verlangsamt.

Das Fundament für weitere Anpassungen wurde somit von Gouverneur Lowe gelegt. Lassen Sie uns sehen, was das Treffen diese Woche an kleinen Änderungen mitsichbringt.

Wir können keine Vorschau der kommenden Woche beenden, ohne auf die US-Earnings Season zu sprechen zu kommen.

Die dritte Woche der Geschäftsberichte der Large Caps für das zweite Quartal 2021 beginnt am Montag. Es ist nicht so viel los wie letzte Woche, aber wir haben immer noch einige wichtige Geschäftsberichte, nämlich von Alibaba und von Uber.

Schauen Sie sich unseren US-Earnings-Kalender an, um weitere Informationen dazu zu erhalten, welche Firmen diese Woche ihre Geschäftsberichte veröffentlichen oder schauen Sie unten.

Top Wirtschafts-Daten

Date Time (GMT+1) Asset Event
Mon 2-Aug 8.55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI
  3.00pm USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI
 
Tue 3-Aug 5.30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
  5.30am AUD Cash Statement
  11.45pm NZD Employment Change q/q
  11.45pm NZD Unemployment Rate
 
Wed 4-Aug 2.30am AUD Retail Sales m/m
  1.15pm USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  3.00pm USD US ISM Services PMI
  3.30pm OIL US Crude Oil Inventories
 
Thu 5-Aug 12.00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility
  12.00pm GBP BOE Monetary Policy Report
  12.00pm GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
  12.00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary
  12.00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  12.00pm GBP Official Bank Rate
  3.30pm GAS US Natural Gas Inventories
 
Fri 6-Aug 2.30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  1.30pm CAD Employment Change
  1.30pm CAD Unemployment Rate
  1.30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings q/q
  1.30pm USD Nonfarm Employment Change
  1.30pm USD Unemployment Rate

 

Top Geschäftsberichte

Mon 2 Aug Tue 3 Aug Wed 4 Aug Thu 5 Aug
Arista Networks Alibaba General Motors Ball Corp
Activision Blizzard The Kraft Heinz Co Beyond Meat
Roku Inc Illumina
Uber Technologies Square Inc
The Trade Desk
Virgin Galactic Holdings

European stocks edge higher, BoE meeting ahead

Stocks seem to be largely marking time until there is more clarity on economic data like inflation with the major European bourses a little higher this morning but well within ranges. Bonds are steady with US 10s around 1.5% and stocks are likely to remain similarly directionless until the former start to motor. Wednesday saw US indices essentially flat but they remain +1% higher on the week after a sharp turnaround from the Fed-induced selling last week. The Nasdaq rose marginally to notch another record high with subdued bond yields allowing investors to get back into big tech growth. More Fed speakers today to watch for in the shape of Bostic, Harker, Williams, Bullard and Barkin but the sentiment seems to be that if the Fed is going to more mindful of inflation than was judged for most of the last year then it ought to keep control of yields and allow for gently rising stock markets. I’d still be mindful of a tantrum later this year when yields ought to pick up some steam. 

 

Sterling trades close to $1.40 ahead of the Bank of England monetary policy statement today. As detailed in our preview, no change is expected but there are signs that inflation might run hotter than the MPC currently forecasts so we will be watching for any commentary around this. Yesterday’s UK PMI report pointed to strong inflationary pressures that will take CPI above the bank’s 2% target – the question is how far above and for how long – and how does the Bank respond. Bailey has made clear the MPC won’t tolerate above-target inflation for long. Could he spring a hawkish surprise today and say something like ‘inflation pressures are building and the bank has the tools to respond’?  I don’t think this is the time yet to do this, but that’s why it would be a surprise.

 

GBPUSD: near term resistance at the 1.40 round number, support holding on the 100-day line at 1.3950.

WTI made a fresh high above $74 amid ongoing expectations that restrained supply and improving demand is leading to an increasingly tight crude market. Yesterday the EIA reported crude oil stocks declined by 7.6m. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub fell to their lowest since March 2020 and US total petroleum demand rose 20.75m bpd, getting close to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile OPEC is signalling a stronger oil market. Chatter is that the cartel will increase production by 500,000 bpd from August as they continue to cautiously unwind production curbs. 

 

Copper has staged a bit of comeback this week but there are some bearish indicators on the physical supply front with China releasing metal from reserves to counter rising inflation. Wednesday saw a bounce in copper as the release of 100,000 tonnes of base metals was less than expected, but this is being reversed. Import demand in the country is also reported to be the weakest since 2017, whilst LME stockpiles are 30% higher this month.  

 

Bitcoin futures just running into resistance at the 200-day line, which had acted as support during recent plunges.

Bank of England preview: when to hike?

  • No change in policy expected
  • QE on autopilot into year-end
  • Rate hike timing in focus with inflation outlook in question

Don’t expect fireworks from the Bank of England tomorrow (Thursday Jun 24th, 12:00 BST) – the Bank won’t be changing policy or announcing anything new – but there is still scope for volatility around the meeting. Inflation looks like it might be more of a problem than the Bank of England’s forecasters have led us to think.  Andrew Bailey has made it clear the MPC won’t hesitate to act on rising inflation and high frequency data indicates this could become a problem for the Bank. Considering the Fed’s move last week to signal it’s not so deaf to inflation risks as we had been led to believe, could the BoE be the next central bank to deliver a hawkish surprise? I’m not so sure – not for this meeting at least since the UK economy has a little further to go yet and the BoE is not facing any pressure to act early.

It seems unlikely that the Bank of England, absent any fresh economic projections, will seek to signal it is worried about the path of inflation at this meeting, preferring to wait for some more data over the summer as the post-lockdown spike in activity starts to wane. Nevertheless, given the QE programme seems to be an autopilot to end this year – some further tapering to be announced in due course so it keeps buying through to Dec – the market attention seems to rest firmly on the timing off lift-off for policy rates.

Current market expectations indicate hikes in Q2 next year. However, it would not be a major surprise if the Bank were to act faster due to rising inflation, with perhaps 2-3 hikes next year beginning in Q1 2022. Wage growth from a shortage of workers is one factor to consider that could make above-target more sustained without tightening so comments on the labour market will be very carefully considered. We would also need to be mindful of household savings being unleashed more than the roughly 10% the Bank expects.

CPI rose 2.1% last month on an annual basis, up from +1.5% in April. The rate of month-on-month inflation was +0.6% as the economy reopened more. Of course, base effects exert a strong influence but there are a couple of points I made at the time which I believe are important. First the core reading of +2.0% was well ahead of the consensus +1.5%. Second, watch that second consecutive +0.6% month-on-month reading, which is about more than just base effects from last year.  Couple more month-on-months like that and MPC will have to act.

Today’s PMI survey also points to strongly rising inflation. The release notes: “The rate of input cost inflation accelerated for the fifth month running and was the joint-fastest on record, equal with that seen in June 2008. While inflation continued to be led by the manufacturing sector, service providers also posted a marked increase in input prices. In turn, the rate of output price inflation hit a fresh record high for the second month running.” The evidence from the survey is strong suggestive that inflation will rise well above the Bank’s 2% – the question is how far above and for how long? Again, it’s the whole transitory question mark over inflation that is bedevilling the Fed. Anyway, right now the Bank will stand pat and not wish to deliver anything like a hawkish surprise. Tapering is underway to let QE expire by the end of the year, and this is not the time for the BoE to signal it’s in a rush to raise rates too. Over the coming weeks and months I expect markets to bring forward rate hike expectations as the BoE reacts to strong inflation readings and for this to lead to a stronger pound with cable to retest 1.4250 in Q3 2021, with a potential move to 1.45 thereafter.

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