CFDs sind komplexe Instrumente und umfassen aufgrund der Hebelfinanzierung ein hohes Risiko, schnell Geld zu verlieren. 67 % der Konten von Privatanlegern verzeichnen beim Trading von CFDs bei diesem Anbieter Verluste. Sie sollten überdenken, ob Sie die Funktionsweise von CFDs verstehen und ob Sie sich das hohe Risiko leisten können, Ihr Geld zu verlieren.
Fed sticks to its guns, Apple and Facebook earnings blowout
The Federal Reserve remains resolutely firm. Jay Powell reiterated that the central bank is not even close to talking about tapering bond purchases, a move that would begin to unwind some of the extraordinary accommodation delivered in the wake of the pandemic. The Fed chair said the US economy is still a long way from achieving the progress required to dial back stimulus – over 8m jobs are still lost and that means we need several blowout jobs reports to get there. Powell also stressed that policymakers are not worried about inflation and think any price pressures will prove temporary. The Fed is doubling down here and sticking to its guns. Advance GDP numbers due to today should show the US economy roaring back.
All this should be a green light for stocks, but the markets are wary right now as they tread record highs and all this stimulus is priced in and the macro outlook well understood. The US 10-year bond yield moved to test the 1.65% level. US stock markets closed marginally lower, though the small cap Russell 2000 managed to eke out a small gain. Futures point to solid gains for Wall Street later today when the cash equities open. European stock markets are largely higher in early trade today, with the FTSE 100 popping its head above 7,000 again on a raft of largely positive corporate updates.
Apple reported another stunning quarter, with sales soaring from last year and a fresh round of buybacks. The company raised the dividend by 7% to $0.22 per share and announced $90 billion in share buybacks. Apple revenues grew more than 50% year-on-year, with total sales of $89.58bn vs around $77bn expected. EPS came in at $1.40 vs $1.00 expected. At all levels, we can see Apple outperforming even the most bullish expectations. The core iPhone business saw sales up 65% to $47.94 billion vs. $41.43 billion estimated. This was stunning – the iPhone remains the golden goose and way in which consumers become part of the Apple ecosystem. Services – a higher margin business that includes things like the Cloud, App Store, Apple Music – grew revenues by 26.7%. Revenues in China rose 87% – albeit this was in comparison to a quarter last year in which China was most affected by the pandemic. Shares rose 2% in the after-hours market. A really exceptional quarter – it’s not a surprise that it exceeded quite a low bar, but noteworthy just by how much.
Facebook shares advanced 6% in after-hours trading as the company reported posted forecast-beating revenues and earnings. However, the company warned investors that growth could slow as new Apple privacy policies would make it harder to targe ads on social media. I’m fairly used to Facebook using earnings calls to warn that rates of growth could slow in future, and I think investors are too. Earnings per share came in at $3.30 vs $2.37 expected on revenues of $26.17bn, which were about $3bn more than expected and up 48% on a year before. Net income rose 94% to $9.5bn. Average revenues per user came in at $9.27 vs. $8.40 expected.
BT confirmed it is looking to sell its TV business. This has been a long time coming – the vast sums BT paid to secure football rights was always at odds with the core business. In a statement responding to press speculation, the company says “early discussions are being held with a number of select strategic partners, to explore ways to generate investment, strengthen our sports business, and help take it to the next stage in its growth”. Whilst clearly the pandemic has badly hit sport, BT has never set too well in the content space; there are many with deeper pockets who do content. Ballooning costs left BT paying a hefty bill for sports that wasn’t being covered. It’s further evidence of chief executive Philip Jansen ripping up the Gavin Patterson era playbook to focus squarely on the Openreach rollout and modernise BT.
Shell raised its dividend after beating expectations thanks to higher oil prices and improved margins in its chemicals business. Adjusted net income rose 13% from a year before. Net debt fell $4bn. Meanwhile French firm Total said profits are back to pre-pandemic levels as adjusted net income hit $3bn, higher than the pre-crisis first quarter of 2019.
Unilever shares rose over 2% as the company announced it will commence a €3bn share buyback scheme next month after a 5.7% jump in sales in the first quarter. Most (4.7%) came from higher volume, with just 1% from stronger pricing. For 2021 Unilever stuck to its target of underlying sales growth to be within 3-5%, with the first half at around the top of this range. Management also pointed to additional supply chain costs, with rising commodity and freight prices a factor as margins are seen declining a touch in the first half before picking up later in the year. Ongoing covid restrictions in some areas of the world continued to support in-home sales, whilst the slackening of restrictions in some geographies boosted out of home sales. Mayonnaise and ice cream were strong sellers. India and China both posted strong double-digit growth against a backdrop of strict lockdown measures which impacted the prior year.
NatWest reported Q1 2021 operating profit before tax of £946 million and an attributable profit of £620 million. This was boosted by the reversal of provisions for bad loans as government support schemes reduced the amount of loan delinquency banks had anticipated. NatWest booked at net impairment credit of £102m. But shares fell as the total income was a slight miss, coming in at £2.66bn vs £2.7bn expected. Net interest margin fell 2bps to 1.64%. Shares declined more than 3% in early trade. Standard Chartered continued the run of positive news from the large banks as it recorded underlying pre-tax profit rising 18% to $1.4bn as lower impairment charges and strong cyclical recovery in the global economy offsetting lower interest margins. Return on tangible equity rose 220bps to 10.8% and management reaffirmed their view that income will start growing again in the second half of the year and for impairment charges to reduce significantly.
Smith & Nephew shares rose 6% to the top of the FTSE 100 after reporting Q1 revenue up 6.2% on an underlying basis (11.5% reported) to $1.264bn. This included 3.4% from foreign exchange and 1.9% from acquisitions, whilst the quarter also included two more trading days than the equivalent 2020 period.
Apple earnings preview: not crunch time yet
So far it looks very much like profit margins are holding up, earnings are rising fast at most companies and earnings expectations are doing fine. Wednesday sees the big one: Apple.
Shares in Apple are up just 1.5% YTD but the stock has nevertheless enjoyed a stellar run up in the last 12 months and in the last month has rallied from a trough around $116 to $134 by Tuesday to get back close to the all-time high. The pandemic has been good for Apple but the value rotation has crimped gains this year. But this remains a go-to stock with immense potential and expectations are not too high for once, albeit with the stock trading at about 36x trailing 12-month earnings it’s looking pretty rich. Here are a few things to look out for from Wednesday’s Apple earnings.
Apple is seen reporting EPS of $1 on $77.30bn in revenues. Last quarter it blew past expectations posting all-time record revenue of $111.4 billion, up 21% year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.68, up 35%.
Guidance: Apple has declined to offer guidance since the pandemic struck, so investors will be keen for this to change now that the clouds of the coronavirus are lifting. The capital return programme (see below) update is usually made alongside the March quarter and so now would be a reasonable time to star offering some guidance for the coming quarters.
iPhone: Still the golden goose, but there are concerns about a softening in demand as well as lower demand in China. Demand will be decent, with about a third of the iPhone installed base up for renewal, albeit we likely see some moderation from the last quarter. Overall, the Street may underappreciate the resilience in iPhone demand from the delayed launch last year and picks up market share thanks to stimulus cheques.
Mac and iPad: Can very strong demand for home computing products like Macs and iPads hold up the pandemic abates? Whilst vaccinations are driving a lifting of lockdowns, I still see a strong demand from WFH and home education trends globally.
Ecosystem: Revenues from Services remains a central plank of the investment thesis and with a growing installed base this should continue to deliver. Last quarter Services growth reached +24% with the first quarter of Apple One subscription bundles helping to lift the category.
Returns: I think this quarter will underline just how strong the free cash flow is and investors are going to start to see more cash coming their way after a record year for sales. Apple could aggressively add to share buybacks and increase the dividend to as much as $0.90, implying a 10% increase.
Last quarter’s summary: Apple shares fell in the aftermath of its January earnings report covering the holiday quarter. Revenues hit a record $111.4bn, well ahead of forecasts and representing 21% year-on-year growth thanks to broad-based gains across its product suite. The iPhone 12 launch quarter was exceptionally strong, with sales +17% in iPhone, taking the installed base for iPhones to 1bn from 900m. Mac revenues rose 21% yoy, whilst iPad sales jumped 41%. As noted in our preview, growth in personal computer sales driven by pandemic trends such as work from/stay at home was always likely to boost Mac and iPad sales. Growth in Other Products – devices like the Apple Watch and AirPods, climbed to 29% yoy. Services growth reached +24% with the first quarter of Apple One subscription bundles helping to lift the category. The growing installed iPhone user base should further support Services growth in the coming quarters, we noted at the time. We also noted very strong international sales (now 64% of total sales vs 61% a year ago), whilst revenues from Greater China rose 57%. The confidence in Apple fiscal first quarter earnings was well justified and the slight pause in the shares reflects a little profit taking after a strong run in 2020 whilst the lack of guidance for the second quarter was a thorn. A record-breaking quarter but it should not be seen as a high watermark for Apple.
5g stocks to watch
5g is the next stage in mobile communications. It’s about to kick off a revolutionary worldwide smartphone upgrade – and that makes 5g stocks some of the hottest picks to watch this year.
Want to invest in 5g? Check out these stocks
Barclays reports that 525 million 5g equipped smartphones will be sold in 2021, and 700m in 2020. China will the main market, other geographies like the US and Europe will be doing their part increase 5g penetration.
PCs and tablets too will soon be outfitted with this latest generation of mobile internet. It’s going to be big business. Very big business. It won’t just be smartphone manufacturers that will benefit. The entire infrastructure, from mobile networks to component and technology suppliers, will be driving the 5g economy from 2021 onwards.
The 5g stocks we’ve picked here represent that wider spectrum of firms that can potentially come away as champions for this next-generation tech. Take a look below.
Whenever there’s a revolution in technology, Apple is never far away. In many ways, it’s jumped the gun by launching the latest iteration of the iPhone, fully primed with 5g. the iPhone 12 is expected trigger an upgrade super-cycle, essentially an avalanche of smartphone shopping as consumers change up to the new model.
That’s what appears to be happening. Apple just reported its best ever single quarter with sales passing $110 billion and saw the highest number of iPhone upgrades ever too, according to CEO Tim Cook.
Wall Street expectations were blown away on the news, with AAPL EPS coming in at $1.68 – well above the projected $1.41. Q1 2021 revenues broke $100bn too. Essentially, Apple is reaping the 5g whirlwind in typical Apple fashion.
With 5g infrastructure rolling out in rapid order across Apple’s two key markets, the US and China, expect solid share performance as the upgrade cycle gains even more traction. AAPL is looking like one of the key 5g stocks to watch.
Marvell Technology Group
Without components, however, 5g is a lame duck. It’s companies like superconductor manufacturer Marvell Technology Group that are equipping smartphone and device manufacturers with the micro components they need to succeed.
Marvell has been busy on the acquisition front, picking up Inphi for a cool $10bn back in October 2020 in a move that will significantly boost its 5g capabilities. It’s also partnering with some big players to move the 5g rock along, such as Analogue Devices on multi-antenna radio units and with Samsung on multi-radio access technology.
In its latest earnings call, Marvell was reporting some good news, with CEO Matt Murphy commenting: “Overall revenue increased 13% year on year, driven by our networking business, which grew revenue 35% year on year. Strong 5G and Cloud product ramps are fuelling our ongoing success in these strategic growth markets.”
Stocks are looking healthy. MRVL has more than doubled in value in the past 12 months. Basing its expansion strategy around the 5g sphere could pay off with the continued global rollout of the mobile tech. It may be one to watch for those who want to invest in 5g.
Communications forms 20% of Analog Devices revenue, and the superconductor manufacturer sees 5g as a cornerstone of its growth strategy. According to its latest earnings report, Analog Devices predicts it can expand revenues from 5g-related tech and projects 19% year-on-year going forward.
We’ve mentioned above it has partnered with Marvell to develop radio-based technologies to help empower 5g communications. Marvell is using Analog’s transceivers in a massive multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) radio units – critical for the functioning of 5G networks.
According to research from Allied Market Research, the global massive MIMO market might enjoy a CAGR of 35% through 2027, hitting nearly $16 billion in revenue.
Analog’s revenues dipped 6% in 2020. However, analysts forecast that, thanks to rapid worldwide 5g adoption, its revenues may be about to skyrocket, with double digit growth forecast for 2021.
QUALCOMM is a chipmaker bridging the gap between iOS and Android. Consumers can be brand snobs, but component suppliers really don’t care if there’s business to be had and a communications revolution If you know your Android tech, then you might know the vast majority of Android-powered smartphones run using QUALCOMM Snapdragon processors. Crucially, it also supplies radios in the uber-popular iPhone 12s.
Long-term, there maybe more competition in the microprocessor space QUALCOMM currently dominates. Samsung, for instance, is developing its own Snapdragon rival, while China’s Mediatek has introduced its own line of 5g mobile processors for use in low-cost smartphones.
Then there is the issue of Apple. It probably wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if the world’s most famous tech company, and pusher of proprietary technology, designed its own 5g modems once its QUALCOMM deal expires in 2025.
For short-term plays though, it may be an idea to look at QUALCOMM. The above aren’t threats to its position right now. In fact, QCOM stock enjoyed a 76% rise across the last year, and it might be able to sustain its upward trajectory across 2021.
Following its merger with Sprint, T-Mobile has been pulled ahead in the US 5g race. Putting its heft deployment capability into practice, T-Mobile claims its 5g network now covers a 1.6m square miles, providing coverage to 280m people. Its Ultra Capacity 5g, i.e. its high-speed 5g service, covers additional 106m people cities in more than 1,000 US towns and cities.
In its last quarter, T-Mobile reported record-high total additions and record post-paid net additions, passing 100m. It appears surging ahead with its desire to invest in 5g is paying off. Customers are probably responding to the fact that T-Mobile offers the fastest 5g download speeds against rival US networks too, verified by Opensignal independent testing.
TMU stock has risen alongside its 5g investment, growing 62%. It could be one of the key 5g stocks to watch in 2021, but if other competitors can step up their 5g capabilities, T-Mobile may see its position as top dog challenged.
European stocks rally, Rolls-Royce shares slide
European equity markets traded higher on Tuesday, recovering the losses of Monday’s soft session after a largely positive, though choppy, day on Wall Street. Tech stocks led by Apple dragged the broader US market higher ahead of an expected strong earnings season, whilst small caps were weaker. Asian shares traded broadly weaker overnight.
Joe Biden’s stimulus plans appear to face being watered down to appease lawmakers on the Republican side, with the president saying he’s open to narrowing eligibility for the $1,400 stimulus cheques for every American that form the centrepiece of the package. This should help the deal get through Congress, but the timing is becoming the issue – more delays on delays in the vaccine rollout are not supportive of risk appetite. Moreover, it’s becoming clear that governments are not going to lift restrictions as quickly as they might due to fears about mutations and vaccine delays.
The EU has levelled criticism at AstraZeneca over vaccine supply shortages and Brussels is tightening exports of vaccines produced in the bloc. The UK Minister for Covid Vaccine Deployment Nadhim Zahawi said on Tuesday that vaccine supplies were „tight“. EU health commissioner Stella Kyriakides said the EU would „take any action required to protect its citizens“. Spats over vaccine supply and delivery take the place of fishing quotas and level playing fields, underlining the new rivalry that exists between Britain and Europe.
Despite a report indicating that global trade volumes have recovered to pre-pandemic levels, the rotation-reopening plays are unwinding. Airline shares are down another 2-3% this morning. US 10-year yields retreated to 3-week lows and the dollar is finding bid again. Gold remains steady in the range around the $1,850/oz region. The problem is that investors have loaded up pretty heavily on the re-opening bets in the wake of the vaccine announcements last November, so concerns about the pace of the rollout of vaccines, the easing of restrictions and a return to normality could see a further unwind of this trade in the near-term. As I said last week, whilst monetary policy support, pro-cyclical stimulus and vaccines create tailwinds for global markets, a 5%-10% correction in equity indices is not out of the question in Q1.
Don’t stop me now: GameStop shares went on a gamma and short squeezing rollercoaster yesterday. Shares, which had jumped 51% to $65 on Friday, opened at about $85 and then surged to $160 before closing up 18% for the day at $76. A wild ride, and there will be others like it, if the Reddit /r/wallstreetbets message board is anything to go by. After-hours trading indicates it will open up another +15% higher, but who knows where this stock is heading now. The rally came despite a double-downgrade from Telsey Advisory Group, which slashed its rating on the stock to underperform from outperform, noting a basic disconnect between fundamentals and valuation. “The sudden, sharp surge in GameStop’s share price and valuation likely has been fuelled by a short squeeze, given the high short interest, and, to a lesser degree, speculation by retail investors on forecasts for the new gaming cycle and the involvement of activist RC Ventures,” the analyst note said.
Rolls-Royce said expected cash outflows this year would be £2bn, more than double consensus forecasts. Full-year 2020 free cash outflow was in line with previous guidance, whilst year-end liquidity stood at around £9 billion, at the upper end of the previously guided range, with £1bn cash cost savings from ‘mitigating actions’. Shares fell over 9% in early trade. Rolls has been battered by the pandemic as civil aviation activity has been smashed, but management expect to turn cash flow positive in the second half of the year as widebody flying hours pick up. The question is whether the pace of vaccine rollout and government easing of restrictions matches their expectations.
JD Sports confirmed it is looking at funding options to exploit opportunities in the retail space created by the pandemic. Following a Sky News report indicating the company is looking at a £400m share sale, the board confirmed this morning that it is exploring ‘additional funding options with a view to increasing its flexibility to invest in future strategic opportunities and that this may involve a non-pre-emptive equity placing’. Recent high street troubles have shown there are opportunities to build out scale – e.g. the recent bidding for the carcasses of Arcadia, Debenhams. Meanwhile, JD Sports has shown an appetite for deals with its recent acquisition of US retailer Shoe Palace.
Travel stocks slip on lockdown ad infinitum + Apple, Tesla earnings previews
European stock markets are a flattish, unexciting mixed bag in early trade on Monday as they continue to tread the range of the last fortnight without too much conviction. Shares in Frankfurt nudged up as London slipped a fraction. US stocks closed down on Friday after a choppy week. Asian shares were broadly higher overnight.
Democrats are hopeful of making swift progress on stimulus, but the impeachment proceedings of Donald Trump could see bipartisan support struggle. The pandemic continues to eat away at confidence – now the British government is said to be considering extending lockdown for another 3 months beyond Easter. This is to get the second dose of vaccines to all over-50s, but just extends the pain for everyone, particularly travel stocks as it’s starting to appear as though as another peak summer season will be affected by Covid restrictions. IAG, Ryanair and EasyJet declined 6-7% in early trade. It’s lockdown ad infinitum: the government continues to act as the executive branch of the NHS. I’m reminded of a Malcolm X quote, which goes something like ‘nobody can give you freedom, you take it’.
Physical stores are not included: Boohoo is acquiring the intellectual property of Debenhams for £55m. A once-mighty high street reduced to a carcass being picked over by some of the worst in fast fashion is an ignominious end. Shares in Boohoo rose over 3% in early trade with the acquisition of the Debenhams name likely to increase the retailer’s online footprint and customer base. Meanwhile, Asos shares also climbed more than 3% as it confirmed it is talks with Arcadia over the acquisition of the Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and HIIT brands. Hardly a new point, but the pandemic is accelerating the collapse in the high street and massive consolidation in the sector.
Elsewhere, the dollar is on the back foot again after staging a meek rally on Friday. GBPUSD advanced beyond 1.37 again but has yet to make a dent at the 3-year highs hit last week. Gold is reasonably steady in the middle of the recent range at $1,850 with the 50-day SMA at $1,860 acting as near-term resistance after the failure to clear the 21-day SMA at $1,875 last week. Key support converges in the $1,800-$1,820 area, with a break here calling for retest of the $1,764 lows and Fib level. Bitcoin trades higher at $33k after testing lows under $29k on Friday after a horror show of a week.
Earnings season shifts into top gear this week with several large cap tech giants reporting alongside a number of Dow components. So far, Bank earnings have been positive with trading revenues and lower provisions for bad loans boosting EPS. Meanwhile, a stunning rally for Netflix shares as net subscriber additions topping estimates for the fourth quarter drove the Nasdaq to a new record. All three major indices have hit record highs off the back of a good string of earnings and hopes for a major stimulus package from Washington.
Look for Apple to beat fairly low estimates with holiday spending on the new iPhone and other devices likely to support a decent Q1. Chinese demand is holding up and shares had come into earnings season a little off the Dec peaks, though they are now at fresh records on expectations of a strong quarter. Earnings per share expected at $1.40 based on 30 analyst estimates, whilst Apple seems set to deliver its first $100bn quarter in sales. Consensus revenue estimates sit at $102.6bn, which would imply 12% year-over-year growth, the fastest in two and a half years.
Q4 earnings missed expectations but we’ve got two big firsts to look at in Q1: the first full quarter of iPhone 12 sales and Apple One subscription services. The iPhone 12 launch quarter will be probably the best for a new iPhone in several years off the back of consumer interest in 5G. On the whole, I’d expect consumer discretionary income trends to be supportive with consumers in Europe, North America and elsewhere foregoing travel/experiences for tech devices.
Look for more growth in the Services division, which expanded 16% in 2020. In addition to being the first full period reflecting iPhone 12 sales, the fiscal Q1 earnings will be the first to really test the power of the Apple One bundles. Growth in personal computer sales driven by pandemic trends such as work from/stay at home is set to boost Mac and iPad sales. I’d also anticipate strength in the Wearables, Home and Accessories division due to pandemic consumer trends.
Morgan Stanley, in a note raising its price target on the stock to $152 from $144, wrote that it is adding to positions “ahead of a likely record quarter,” as it notes likely “strength across its portfolio of Products & Services”. MS expects a “strong launch quarter” for the new iPhone 12 and continued strength from work from home trends and App store engagement. Having rerated over the last two years the stock now trades more in line with tech peers at around x33 2021 earnings. Material upside for the stock now seems more earnings dependent but EPS can continue to outperform and Services revenues can continue to support the multiple expansion that has taken place.
Tesla comes into its fourth quarter earnings with a lot to live up to after the stock price exploded in the last two months. Shares have more than doubled in value from ~$400 to ~$850 since November amid a colossal momentum trade that means TSLA carries a market cap of $800bn. Revenue is expected at $10.3bn with EPS estimated at $1.01. Whilst investors are increasingly confident Tesla will continue to generate profits and free cash flow is going to improve, justifying these kind of valuation multiples is tough and will depend on a lot more than vehicle sales – ongoing software subscription revenue streams – some of which are potentially 100% margin – will be key.
Earlier this month, Tesla reported Q4 deliveries hit 180,750 units, which brought 2020 total deliveries to 500k, exceeding some rather conservative estimates by analysts and hitting Elon Musk’s target. Meanwhile, reports indicated that Tesla has commenced deliveries of its locally-made Model Y crossover in China. Investors will be looking at guidance on deliveries for 2021 – current consensus envisages ~50% growth to 780,000 units. Tesla also announced an equity distribution agreement to sell up to $5bn in common stock in future through an ‘at the market’ programme. Tesla did something similar in September this latest announcement suggests the company will continue to use its high share price to raise fresh capital via low-cost equity offerings to fund growth in a kind of virtuous circle.
However, traditional OEMs are catching up. We note the recent rallies for Ford and GM as EV enthusiasm among the old-world carmakers picks up. And market share remains a problem for Tesla – its Model 3 was the fourth-best selling pure EV in Europe in November, with Renault, VW and Hyundai outstripping the company for sales in the continent. November saw a 198% rise in hybrid and pure EV registrations vs a 14% decline overall for new car registrations. But while the market is expanding, local OEMs are holding the line against Tesla despite all the hype.
US earnings Calendar
|Mon 25 Jan||Tue 26 Jan||Wed 27 Jan||Thu 28 Jan||Fri 29 Jan|
|3M Co (MMM)||AT&T (T)||Mastercard (MA)||Caterpillar Inc (CAT)|
|American Express (AXP)||Automatic Data Processing (ADP)||McDonald’s Corp (MCD)||Chevron (CVX)|
|General Electric (GE)||Boeing (BA)||Mondelez (MDLZ)|
|Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)||Apple Inc (AAPL)||Visa Inc (V)|
|Verizon Communications Inc (VZ)||Facebook (FB)|
|Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)||Tesla Inc (TSLA)|
|Microsoft Corp (MSFT)|
|Starbucks Corp (SBUX)|
Wochenausblick: Fed trifft sich, US-BIP und Big-Tech-Geschäftsberichte
In der kommenden Woche hält die Federal Reserve ihre erste Sitzung des neuen Jahres mit einer Reihe neuer Ernennungen ab, aber eine größere Änderung der Politik scheint unwahrscheinlich. Außerdem werden die jüngsten US-BIP-Zahlen veröffentlicht. Die Prognosen zeigen eine gemischte aber optimistische Aussicht auf die Zahlen für das viertel Quartal 2020. Und die Earnings-Season geht weiter: Big-Tech-Unternehmen führen die Large Caps mit den jüngsten Geschäftsberichten.
FOMC-Treffen und Pressekonferenz
Das erste Treffen der Federal Reserve im Jahr 2021 findet nächste Woche statt, vor dem Hintergrund der Pläne des frisch eingeschworenen Joe Biden für zusätzliche Konjunkturpakete und der Forderung der für das Finanzministerium gewählten Janet Yellens, in der Finanzpolitik „groß zu handeln“. 1,9 Billionen USD ist die angestrebte Größenordnung für zusätzliche Konjunkturpakete, der Versuch der USA versuchen, ihre Wirtschaft gegen den anhaltenden Angriff von Covid-19 zu stützen.
In diesem Januar werden vier neue regionale Fed-Präsidenten in die wichtigsten Wahl-Positionen versetzt – eine Rotation, die auf eine zurückhaltendere Fed für 2021 hindeuten könnte. Es gehen Mester (aggressiv), Kashkari (zurückhaltend), Kaplan (neutral) und Harker (neutral). Neu kommen Evans (zurückhaltend), Daly (neutral), Bostic (zurückhaltend) und Barkin (neutral).
Neue Mitglieder machen die Sache etwas interessanter, aber die Fed wird ihren Kurs nicht ändern. Jay Powell macht deutlich, dass es jetzt nicht an der Zeit sei, über die Reduzierung von Anleihenkäufen zu sprechen, obwohl einige politische Entscheidungsträger vorgeschlagen haben, dass dies später im Jahr 2021 gerechtfertigt sein könnte.
Laut dem Fed-Sitzungsprotokoll vom Dezember 2020 sehen die politischen Entscheidungsträger, dass die Zinssätze bis 2022 im derzeit angestrebten Bereich von 0% bis 0,25% bleiben, mit einer langfristigen Schätzung von 2,5%. Niemand geht diese Jahr von einem Zinsanstieg aus. Der Status Quo deutet stark darauf hin. Dem Präsidenten der Atlanta Fed Bostic zufolge müsste einiges passieren, damit das passiert.
Es besteht die Möglichkeit eines Anstiegs im Jahre 2023, und eventuell bereits schon in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2022. Drei Schlüsselpunkte werden betrachtet werden: die Gesundheit kleiner Unternehmen, die Wirkung von Kreditprogrammen der Fed, von denen viele Ende 2020 ausgelaufen sind, und vorübergehende vs. permanente Arbeitsplatzverluste. Über allem wird aber die anhaltende Antwort auf die Covid-19-Pandemie stehen.
Jetzt gerade scheint es, als ob die Fed im Grunde genommen den Kurs halten möcht und an der 2020 etablierten Politik festhält.
Jüngste US-BIP-Zahlen veröffentlicht
Wie so ziemlich jede größere Volkswirtschaft der Welt, sind die USA von wiederholten Schlägen der Covid-19-Pandemie lädiert. Am Donnerstag werden die BIP-Statistiken für das vierte Quartal vorgestellt, und das Bild sieht gelinde gesagt durcheinander aus. BIP-Diagnosen hängen wirklich davon ab, wen man fragt.
Das GDPNow-Modell der US-Notenbank von Atlanta prognostizierte in der Veröffentlichung vom 15. Januar für das vierte Quartal ein annualisiertes Wachstum von 7,4%, obwohl dies von den 8,7% vom 8. Januar nach unten korrigiert wurde. Das Nowcast-Modell der New York Fed zeigt eine Expansion von 2,5%.
Das BIP-Wachstum hängt komplett davon ab, welche Wirtschaftszweige sich am schnellsten wieder erholen werden. Das US-Handelsministerium sagte vor kurzem, dass Konsumausgaben, der große wirtschaftliche Motor der US-Wirtschaft, ebenso wie die Anlageinvestitionen der Unternehmen, leicht nach oben korrigiert wurden. Allerdings wurden sie durch ein Sinken der Exporte gemindert. Dienstleistungen, die 61% der Konsumausgaben ausmachen, waren um 17% im dritten Quartal 2020 im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gesunken – können sie sich erholen? Man wird abwarten müssen.
Earnings-Season – Apple, Microsoft und Facebook führen die Large Caps an
Earnings-Season geht auf der Wall Street weiter und diese Woche liegt der Fokus auf den Tech-Giganten. Big-Tech scheint größer und größer zu werden und der Lockdown scheint dem Sektor noch in die Hände zu spielen. Werden die Geschäftsberichte das bestätigen?
Apple könnte sein erstes 100 Milliarden-Quartal haben und der Konsens-Gewinn-Je-Aktie steigt 12% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr auf 1,40 USD. Die Einkaufs-Saison über die Feiertage fällt genau in die Berichte zum ersten Quartal von Apple und mit einer Reihe von iPhone 12 Modellen am Markt – genau, um die Produktionszahlen des Quartals um 30% zu heben – scheinen die Indikatoren für einen guten Geschäftsbericht des kalifornischen Tech-Giganten ziemlich stark.
Microsoft ist ein Gewinner gewesen. Wenn Sie von zuhause aus arbeiten mussten Sie sich wahrscheinlich mit Microsoft Teams auseinandersetzen, jetzt die de-facto Standardlösung für geschäftliche Kommunikation von Unternehmen auf der ganzen Welt.
Cloud-Computing-Lösungen helfen Microsoft Rekord-Quartalsergebnisse zu erzielen. Mit der zunehmenden Verbreitung von Produkten wie Azure, GitHub, SQL Server und Windows Server haben kommerzielle Cloud-Dienste im letzten Quartal im Vergleich zum Vorjahr 31% mehr Umsatz erzielt und 15,2 Mrd. USD erreicht. In Kombination mit weiterer Produktivitäts-Software wie zum Beispiel Office, Teams und weiteren, ist der Umsatz von Microsoft im ersten Quartal 2021 auf dem Weg 40,2 Milliarden USD zu erreichen.
Facebooks Ruf hat in den letzten Monaten etwas Schaden genommen. Einer der Hauptvorwürfe mit denen das Unternehmen sich konfrontiert sieht, ist die Verbreitung von „Fake News“ und Hassrede auf der Plattform.
Trotzdem verzeichnete Facebook im letzten Quartal ein Wachstum der aktiven täglichen Nutzer um 12% auf 1,82 Mrd., während die monatlichen aktiven Nutzer mit 2,74 Mrd. – etwas mehr als ein Viertel der Weltbevölkerung – mit der gleichen Geschwindigkeit wuchsen. Auch die Werbeeinnahmen sind im Jahresvergleich um 22% gestiegen, selbst angesichts eines Boykotts von 1.000 prominenten Werbetreibenden.
Eine vollständige Übersicht der Large-Caps die diese Woche ihre Geschäftsberichte veröffentlichen finden Sie unten.
Top Wirtschafts-Daten der Woche
|Mon Jan 25|
|Tue Jan 26||7.00am||GBP||Unemployment Claims|
|3.00pm||USD||CB Consumer Confidence|
|Wed Jan 27||12.30am||AUD||CPI q/q|
|3.30pm||USD||US Crude Oil Inventories|
|7.00pm||USD||Federal Funds Rate|
|7.30pm||USD||FOMC Press Conference|
|Thu Jan 28||1.30pm||USD||Advanced GDP q/q|
|1.30pm||USD||Advanced GDP Price Index q/q|
|3.00pm||USD||CB Leading Index m/m|
|3.30pm||USD||US Natural Gas Inventories|
|Fri Jan 29||8.00pm||CHF||KOF Economic Barometer|
|3.00pm||USD||Pending Home Sales m/m|
Top Geschäftsberichte diese Woche
|Mon 25 Jan||NIDEC|
|Brown & Brown|
|Equity Lifestyle Properties|
|Tue 26 Jan||Microsoft|
|Johnson & Johnson|
|Canadian National Railway Co.|
|Maxim Integrated Products|
|LG Household & Health Care|
|Nitto Denko Corp.|
|Wed 27 Jan||Apple|
|Shin-Etsu Chemical Co.|
|Automatic Data Processing Inc.|
|Norfolk Southern Corp.|
|Edward Lifesciences Corp.|
|TE Connectivity Ltd|
|Las Vegas Sands Corp.|
|Ameriprise Financial Inc.|
|Hormel Foods Corp.|
|Nomura Research Institute|
|Raymond James Financial|
|Packaging Corp. of America|
|Thu 28 Jan||Samsung|
|Air Products & Chemicals|
|Walgreens Boots Alliance|
|Stanley Black & Decker|
|McCormick & Co.|
|Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.|
|Fri 29 Jan||Eli Lilly|
|Simon Property Group|
|Church & Dwight Co.|
|Svenska Cellulosa AB|
|Booz Allen Hamilton|
Big tech weighs, Natwest rounds off solid quarter for UK banks
European shares once again fell and then tried to come off the flatline in early trade on Friday after another down day in the previous session, but the mood is pessimistic.
The FTSE 100 is trading above 5,500 but with little support under 5,400 we could yet see a retest of the March lows at 5,000-4,800.
Wall Street rallied as the bulls put in a solid defence with the S&P 500 recovering 3,300. Big tech earnings beat expectations yet shares fell after hours and this weighed on the futures, which are pointing to a weak open for the US market. Bear in mind also month-end flows which are helping muddy the waters.
The US dollar surged with US yields moving higher yesterday. DXY advanced to near-term resistance at the top of the October range at 94. WTI (Dec) sank amid the broad risk-off tone yesterday and demand fears were to the fore.
US jobless claims fell and GDP in the world’s largest economy rebounded a little more than expected in the third quarter, but none of this matters much since the market is entirely focused on the spread of new cases and lockdown measures.
The annualized 33.1% bounce in the third quarter masks the fact the economy is 15% smaller than it was before the pandemic hit. The pace of the recovery is slowing in the fourth quarter albeit it remains on a sure enough footing compared to Europe (lockdowns to blame there), whilst the glow from the $600-a-week stimulus cheques (which stopped at the end of July) is dimming quickly. And whilst we believe new stimulus measures are coming over the hill, the longer the delay the tougher it becomes for Main Street.
The European Central Bank (ECB) didn’t do anything but sounded more dovish and signalled it is ready to act in December by pumping up its emergency quantitative easing programme.
In fact, there was overall a surprisingly strong pre-commitment to taking additional easing measures in December. It’s all but a down deal now that France and Germany have locked down and the economy is heading for another recession.
The euro fell, weighed down by the dollar’s advance but also because of the ECB’s stance. Christine Lagarde said staff were working on recalibrating all instruments, which means even interest rates could be cut further in addition to expanding QE envelopes.
EURUSD dropped to take a 1.16 handle but found support at the 100-day SMA at 1.1650. Cable traded weaker, briefly taking a 1.28 handle but caught some bid around the 1.29 level to steady the ship. 100-day SMA at 1.2877 offers the near-term support under here.
More upbeat numbers from the high street banks with Natwest this morning reporting Q3 operating profit more than twice market estimates at £355m vs ~£130m expected.
Impairments were half the market expectations at £254m vs over £550m expected. CET1 very strong at 18.2%, net interest margin down 2bps to 1.65%. A good set of numbers to round off a strong performance by the UK banks but doubts remain about a potential increase in impairments down the road, weak economic growth in the UK, Brexit challenges, and the threat of negative rates eating away at margins.
Big tech reported earnings that showed its resilience to the virus but also betrayed just how richly priced these stocks are in the wake of the pandemic. With the exception of Google parent Alphabet, shares fell across the board after hours, which weighed on US futures overnight.
Alphabet shares rose over 6% in after-hours trading as earnings indicated a bounce back in the search business. EPS of $16.40 beat the $11.29 expected, on revenues of $46.17bn. Advertising revenue rose to $37.10bn, compared to $33.80 bn in the year-ago quarter. YouTube +32% was notably strong. Alphabet will start breaking out its cloud earnings performance from the next quarter.
Amazon posted a blowout third quarter of revenue growth and is poised to capitalise on a record Christmas shopping season. Net income rose to $6.3bn vs $2.1bn in the same quarter a year before despite spending significant amounts on coping with the virus.
In total, Amazon has incurred more than $7.5bn in incremental Covid-related costs in the first three quarters of 2020, and expects to incur approximately $4bn in Q4, CFO Brian Olsavsky said. AWS net sales rose 29% to $11.bn. Shars slipped almost 2% in the after-hours market.
Facebook shares fell 3% after-market as it posted a decline in North American users and signalled more uncertainty ahead. Revenue +22% to $21.47bn was a beat to expectations, whilst net income was +29% to $7.85bn. Whilst the shift offline to online among business and retail is a powerful tailwind for the advertising earnings, shares priced for lots of growth are just as sensitive to user numbers and the drop in core US/Canada users is a concern.
Similarly, Twitter shares got whacked after hours as it too posted a disappointing user growth story. Revenues rose 14% to $936m in the quarter, but the +1m gain on daily active users to 187m was short of the 195m expected.
Finally, Apple shares fell 5% after hours as a 20% decline in iPhone revenues weighed on the stock, whilst the lack of any guidance for 2021 was taken as a negative.
Whilst Mac and iPad sales rose strongly over the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, it was not enough to offset the drop in iPhone sales. However, with the quarter covering the period immediately before the launch of the iPhone 12, we would think that weakness in iPhones will prove fleeting.
Mac revenues +28% to $9bn and iPad sales +46% to $6.8bn partially offset iPhone’s –20.7% to $26.44bn. EPS of $0.73 beat the $0.70 expected, whilst overall group revenues rose 1%. Services continues to do well, with revenues +16.3% to $14.55bn.
Uncertainty around the virus means Apple continues to not offer guidance, however Tim Cook said he was optimistic about the iPhone 12 and is ‘confident’ Apple will grow in Q1 2021. Ecosystem is still the biggest draw and should support the multiple expansion.
Wochenausblick: Big Tech Gewinne heizen vor der Wahl die Volatilität an
Es wird voraussichtlich eine volatile Woche für die US-Märkte, da die Earnings Season an der Wall Street mit den Berichten von Big Tech weitergeht. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet und Facebook sind unter den größten Namen, die ihre Quartalsberichte veröffentlichen. Währenddessen hört man viel von den Zentralbanken, mit Treffen der Bank of Japan, der Bank of Canada und der Europäischen Zentralbank. Und natürlich zählen wir alle die Tage bis zur Präsidentschaftswahl im November und behalten alle Augen auf dem Vix.
Big Tech Gewinne
Es ist eine große Woche für Geschäftsberichte und der Fokus wird zweifelsfrei auf den FAANGs liegen, mit den Donnerstags erwarteten Geschäftsberichten von Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) und Facebook (FB). Die Geschäftsberichte kommen im Schatten einer kartellrechtlichen Ermittlung, die das US-Justizministerium (DOJ) gegen Googles Muttergesellschaft Alphabet gestartet hat. Der Fokus der Ermittlungen liegt auf Vereinbarungen, die Alphabet mit Handy-Herstellern und Netzanbietern gemacht hat, um Google als Standardsuchmaschine auf neuen Handys auszuliefern. Während Anleger das bisher nicht groß tangiert hat, könnten die Geschäftsberichte zu einer größeren Volatilität auf dem Aktienmarkt führen.
Es bestehen weiter Bedenken, dass der Fall zu einem Aufschwung für das Service-Angebot von Apple führen könnte. Das DOJ sagt, dass Apple zwischen 8 und 12 Milliarden USD an Google verdient, was etwa 17-26% des Umsatzes des Service-Bereichs von Apple entspricht. Apple hat vor kurzem das iPhone 12 vorgestellt, mehr und mehr ist der hohe Aktienwert aber durch das Ökosystem und Umsatz aus dem Service-Bereich bedingt. Nichtsdestotrotz bleiben Analysten bullisch was die Tech-Giganten angeht, die weiterhin unter den größten Gewinnern dieses Jahres bleiben. Microsoft veröffentlicht seine Berichte am Dienstag und eine Vielzahl weiterer Aktien mit hoher Marktkapitalisierung folgen in den kommenden Tagen.
Mit steigendem Euro gegen den US-Dollar liegt der Fokus der Devisenmärkte auf dem Treffen der Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) am Donnerstag. Die Märkte wetten immer stärker darauf, dass die EZB weitere Lockerungen anleitet, um die stockende Konjunktur und stagnierende Preise anzuheizen. Die Eurozone begann im September ihren zweiten Monat der Deflation in Folge und die Risiken weiterer Einschränkungen im Block auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung haben sich seit dem letzten Treffen deutlich verschlechtert. Die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in eine Rezession ist real. So sagte Christine Lagarde vor kurzem, dass das Wiederaufflammen des Virus eine klare Gefahr für die Wirtschaft ist. Angesichts der trüben Aussichten und des schrecklichen Inflationsumfelds scheint es überaus wahrscheinlich, dass die EZB ihr Anleihenkaufprogramm bis Dezember um weitere 500 Mrd. EUR erhöhen wird.
Um einen Eindruck der Stimmung in der EZB zu erhalten, sagte der normalerweise falkenartige österreichische Kopf der Zentralbank Robert Holzmann vor kurzem: „Weitere belastbare, weitergreifende oder striktere Maßnahmen benötigen wahrscheinlich kurzfristig monetäre und steuerliche Anpassungen.“
In der Zwischenzeit finden diese Woche außerdem Treffen der Bank of Japan und der Bank of Canada statt.
Der vorläufige Bericht zum Wachstum des US-BIP im dritten Quartal wird das Highlight der Märkte sein, die nach Hinweisen suchen, wie schnell und nachhaltig die Erholung von statten geht. Es wird auf Grund der Wiedereröffnung der Geschäfte nach dem ersten Lockdown von einem Wirtschaftswachstum um die 30% gerechnet. Die Prognose der Fed von Atlanta geht davon aus, dass die Wirtschaft im Quartal um 35% gewachsen ist – aber dies verdeckt natürlich den tatsächlichen Schaden, wenn dieses Wachstum auf einen Absturz von 31% im zweiten Quartal folgt. Der Bericht zum BIP kommt für Donald Trump genau richtig, der in der Lage sein wird, behaupten zu können, die Wirtschaft laufe spitze.
Die letzte Hürde: Umfragewerte ändern sich wahrscheinlich nicht viel – die Anzahl der unentschiedenen Wähler ist diesmal klein. Biden hat landesweit einen starken Vorsprung, aber bei den hart umkämpften Schlüsselstaaten, die das Rennen letztendlich entscheiden, sie es knapper aus. Wir richten am 2. November ein spezielles Vorwahlkampf-Live-Event aus, um die Reaktion der Märkte durchzuspielen.
Top Wirtschafts-Daten der Woche
Öffnen Sie den Wirtschaftskalender auf der Plattform für eine vollständige Übersicht der Veranstaltungen und Ereignisse.
|Oct 26th||German Ifo business climate|
|Oct 26th||UK Nationwide house price index|
|Oct 26th||US new home sales|
|Oct 26th||SNB Chairman Jordan speaks|
|Oct 27th||BoJ core CPI|
|Oct 27th||US durable goods, core durable goods|
|Oct 27th||US CB consumer confidence|
|Oct 28th||Australia CPI inflation|
|Oct 28th||Bank of Canada rate decision|
|Oct 28th||EIA crude oil inventories|
|Oct 28th||FOMC member Kaplan speaks|
|Oct 29th||Bank of Japan policy statement & economic outlook|
|Oct 29th||German preliminary CPI inflation|
|Oct 29th||UK mortgage approvals & lending figures|
|Oct 29th||US advanced GDP – Q3|
|Oct 29th||US weekly jobless claims|
|Oct 29th||ECB policy decision & press conference|
|Oct 29th||US pending home sales|
|Oct 29th||US natural gas storage|
|Oct 30th||Tokyo core CPI|
|Oct 30th||Japan industrial production|
|Oct 30th||French flash GDP|
|Oct 30th||German preliminary GDP|
|Oct 30th||Eurozone CPI flash estimates|
|Oct 30th||Canada GDP|
|Oct 30th||US personal spending & core PCE price index|
|Oct 30th||Chicago PMI|
|Oct 30th||UoM consumer sentiment|
Top Geschäftsberichte diese Woche
Vergessen Sie nicht unsere täglichen Earnings Season Specials auf XRay einzuschalten, um weitere Updates zu erhalten.
|26-Oct||SAP SE||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Microsoft Corp.||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Pfizer Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Ping An Insurance Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Merck Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Novartis AG||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Eli Lilly and Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||3M Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||Caterpillar Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||HSBC Holdings plc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||S&P Global Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|27-Oct||BP plc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Visa Inc.||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||MasterCard Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Amgen Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||ServiceNow Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Boeing Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Sony Corp.||Q2 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Gilead Sciences Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Anthem Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|28-Oct||Equinix Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Apple Inc.||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Amazon||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Alphabet||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Facebook Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Samsung||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||China Life Insurance Co Ltd (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Comcast Corp. (Class A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Shopify Inc (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Sanofi S.A.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||AB InBev SA-NV (Anheuser-Busch InBev)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||American Tower Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Starbucks Corp.||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Shell (Royal Dutch Shell)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Volkswagen (VW) St.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||Stryker Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec) (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|29-Oct||China Life Insurance Co. Ltd.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||China Construction Bank Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||AbbVie Inc||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||ExxonMobil Corp. (Exxon Mobil)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Chevron Corp.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Honeywell||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||PetroChina Co Ltd (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Postal Savings Bank of China Registered Shs -A-||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||TOTAL S.A.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||AUDI AG||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Altria Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|30-Oct||Colgate-Palmolive Co.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Berkshire Hathaway Inc.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (A)||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||China Merchants Bank Co Ltd.||Q3 2020 Earnings|
|31-Oct||Bank of China Ltd||Q3 2020 Earnings|
Nikola shares tumble (again)
Volume leaders today include Apple as normal, as well as Peloton after a blow-out earnings report – EPS of $0.27 almost treble the street consensus of $0.10 indicating the stay-at-home Covid trend is playing out well for the brand. A new cheaper version of its bike should help, too. Apple shares were flat, with Peloton up just +1%, well below its highs.
Hidenburg Research slams Nikola, shares tumble
Nikola shares fell about 15% on high volumes after the Hindenburg Research article. Whilst shares had fallen yesterday following publication, it seems investors have taken fright at the lack of any detailed refutation by Nikola.
A statement today from the company only said the allegations are not accurate and described the report as a ‘hit job’. If it is a hit job, it’s been a very well timed one with the stock having jumped only a couple of days prior on the tie-up with GM. But the lack of detail from the company so far has left investors unimpressed.
Without being able to comment on the details of the report, short attacks can and do happen, and more often than often there is rarely smoke without fire.
Equities move higher into the weekend
Elsewhere, the S&P 500 ticked higher after testing yesterday’s cash close at 3,339, with the 50-day line offering further support untested at 3,321.90. Yesterday’s tap on the 21-day SMA at 3,425 looks a long way off. Nasdaq also higher as risk is catching some bid into the weekend.
European equity markets are closing the day out with some decent weekly gains in the bag. Overall we have seen a real divergence between the US and Europe this week with equity markets this side of the pond doing better. Partly that is down to the rotation out of tech, but also we need to be aware of election risk that will play an increasing role in driving sentiment over the next month and a half.
Crude oil found some bid as the risk sentiment improved as the US session progressed.
Listening to the usual talking heads it seems there is more appetite for value after the three-day tech rout saw the penny drop for many that valuations had gotten out of hand. Let’s see how that goes with Ocado and Next on stage next week.
Brexit headline risk keeps pressure on GBPUSD
In FX, DXY ran out of gas at 93.38 as it tries to make another stab at the top of the descending wedge. GBPUSD tried three times to break below 1.2770 today but the level has just about held for now – sterling remains exposed to Brexit headline risks and bulls may be thin on the ground.
Post fix it looks pretty meek and liable to further downside into the weekend with UK-EU trade talks next week in focus. The current consolidation range looks pretty bearish and flaggy but we should always caution that sellers can get exhausted into the weekend just much as buyers can and there may be some profits being taken.
FTSE lags as dollar continues to drop
Back to school: the unruly mob are back. But that is enough about MPs going back to work – children start the autumn term this week and the furlough scheme starts to unwind with the government reducing its contribution to employees’ wages to 70% in September.
Furlough forever is simply not an option – zombie staff, zombie businesses. But it means unemployment is surely set to rise – and consumer confidence always follows. The chancellor is floating a tax raid – better to monetize the debt surely?
Stocks soft after strong August
Stocks were a tad weaker on Monday, but August was a great month. The MSCI World index rose 6.6% and the S&P rallied over 7% to record their best August since 1986. The Nasdaq rose 10%. August is usually a poor month for stocks.
Tuesday morning saw a firm bounce for the major European bourses, though the FTSE 100 lagged as it played catchup following the bank holiday. A stronger sterling is also dragging on the big dollar earners. AstraZeneca has started large-scale human trials of its coronavirus candidate vaccine in the US.
The Federal Reserve has put a floor under markets and a ceiling on rates, delivering conditions where stocks can only float higher. We call this TINA – There Is No Alternative. It’s not sustainable of course, but it won’t stop the Fed and other central banks continuing to inflate the bubble. The Fed’s policy shift on inflation has marked a important change for the central bank and it may be followed by the ECB and others.
Vix futures – the so-called ‘fear gauge’ are telling another story. These have started to grind higher despite stocks rallying, which raises a warning about the future path of the market. As previously mentioned, volatility should rise as the election approaches and the races proves far tighter than it currently looks. In summary, the options market is sending a signal that the stock market is not.
Strong China manufacturing PMI lifts sentiment, despite soft readings from France, Spain
Sentiment this morning is helped by data showing Chinese factory activity rose at the fastest pace since 2011. French and Spanish manufacturing PMIs softened, dropping under 50 to signal contraction, while Italy’s was a little better than expected at 53.1.
Some of the moves in US shares are striking. Apple rose over 3% to $129 after splitting, whilst Tesla shares rocketed 13% on its busiest day ever. Stock splits shouldn’t make a difference, except this time they have. Tesla is up 74% for the month.
Zoom races higher after smashing earnings forecasts
Zoom rose almost 23% in after-hours trade after it reported a 355% rise in revenues to $663.5m for the July quarter, smashing forecasts for around $500m. Zoom has proved to be a Covid winner of epic proportions – but shouldn’t we all be going back to the office by now? The UK significantly lags Europe and others in ‘getting back to work’ statistics – this has a huge implication for productivity and for the wider economy.
The dollar continues to soften and trying to guess the bottom is akin to catching a falling knife. The dollar index sank to fresh two-year lows in the wake of the Fed’s inflation shift. Perennial dollar bulls have been caught off guard with the unwind, however the Fed’s recent shift on inflation targeting only underlines that bears called this early.
More inflation and a central bank prepared to let it happen should reduce the purchasing power of the dollar and therefore it ought to weaken. However, with the buck usually a safe harbour, it shouldn’t soften too much more.
The pound was up, with GBPUSD pressing on the post-election euphoria high of last December a little above 1.34. There are Brexit risks ahead – talks recommence next week – but for the moment the major driver of this is the dollar’s weakness. Gold futures rose to $2,000/oz as the weaker dollar lifted commodity markets and US real rates – 10-year TIPS – have sunk again as inflation expectations rise.