Higher rates split the pack, big day for US data ahead of Thanksgiving

Rollover in tech/momentum continues as rising rates splits the pack. Nasdaq lower, S&P 500 and Dow mildly higher on energy and banks. US 10-year rates hit 1.67% yesterday from 1.54% on Friday, before retreating to 1.64% this morning. All this comes in the wake of the reappointment of Jay Powell as Fed and expected path of tightening. Tech, momentum, consumer discretionary names in the firing line – ARKK down big again, -11% the last 5 session, Zoom –25% over the same period, Peloton –18, and Robin Hood is another standout underperformer – down 20% in the last 5 sessions. There are two main things happening – a total pullback from the high growth speculative momentum names, and an unwieldy rotation out megacap quality tech into cyclicals and financials, i.e. those that do well from higher rates. Overall, the broad market is keeping its end up thanks to the rotation – no great signs of stress yet and the market continues to trade near its all-time high, though the Vixx hit a month-and-a-half high above 21.

More of the same? Bank of America forecasts the S&P 500 at 4600 by year-end 2022 (-2% from here). It argues for a higher discount rate for stocks from the Fed’s taper and eventual rate hike plus increased rate and stock volatility. The theme for next year is therefore inflation-protected yield so dividends can keep pace with govt bonds. As such BoA likes energy and financials, which offer inflation-protected yield, and healthcare which offers growth and yield at a ‘reasonable price’. What they are talking about for the year ahead is what we are seeing in this rate-repricing-rotation.

It’s a challenging picture regards Covid in Europe, but the main bourses are firmer this morning. The FTSE 100 has reclaimed the 7,300 level and the DAX made an attempt to regain the 16k level before retreating into the red on some soft Ifo business sentiment data. German business sentiment fell in November, and could fall a lot more as the number of Covid cases and the government’s draconian response make life difficult for businesses. Meanwhile Germany’s three coalition partners have agreed a deal that clears the path for Olaf Scholz, the current finance minister, to become Chancellor. A press conference is due later – watch for anything on Nord Stream 2 and potential for nat gas markets.

There is a lot of US data to watch for in the session ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday. First up the second reading for Q3 GDP is expected to be revised up to 2.2% from 2.0%. The PCE deflator, which includes food and energy, rose at a 4.4% in September, the fastest since 1991. Core inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge as it excludes volatile items like food and energy, increased at 3.6%, which was also the fastest pace in 30 years. We could see the headline print above 5% and core above 4% for the October reading, which is released today. We think the Fed seems to be a little more wary of the risks of persistently high inflation than they were a couple of months ago, which means a super-hot reading will have market reaction. The kneejerk moves higher in the dollar and rates on the Powell announcement have held, but a similar jump today could be one to fade. Finally, we will be watching for the minutes from the last FOMC meeting for clues about the likely path of monetary policy, specifically how worried about inflation are policymakers, and how close do they think the labour market is to being strong enough to warrant raising rates.

FX markets are still anchored by the strong dollar, with DXY holding onto the Powell announcement gains at 96.50. Cable made a fresh yearly low yesterday at 1.3342, as the sellers remain in charge. The euro also continues to come under heaps of downwards pressure and is just holding the key support at the 1.1230 area, but has just made a fresh 16-month low this morning as the bears hold sway. If this area doesn’t get breached soon, though, we could see a bump up to 1.14. Turkey’s lira continued to plunge and traded at 13 this morning, a new record low. New Zealand’s dollar fell against the USD despite the RBNZ hiking rates again. Whilst sounding hawkish about the outlook, some had anticipated the RBNZ to go for more than just a 25bps hike.

Strategic oil reserves were released by the US and others in a coordinated effort, but crude prices rose as the move had been well anticipated and priced in. WTI (Jan) rallied for a third day to retake $79 as the coalition of the willing released 50m barrels – somewhat short of the 100m Goldman Sachs says the market had priced. 50m barrels is about half a day’s worth of demand – it was never going to do much. API data showed oil inventories climbing by 2.3m barrels last week vs the expected decline of 500k.

Gold is trying to hold the $1,790 level but remains under a lot of pressure. A bearish MACD crossover was the big signal on Monday and with rate expectations moving up but cooler energy market (for now) seeing inflation expectations come back a bit, it’s a tough picture. Breach here could open up path to $1,770 area. Recovery of $1,800 (hot inflation reading?) could see retest of old horizontal resistance around $1,834.

Gold Chart 24.11.2021

Ugen der kommer: En vigtig uge for amerikansk økonomi

Endnu en travl uge i finansverdenen venter. Topemnerne i denne uge omfatter de avancerede BNP-målinger fra de amerikanske økonomiske indikatorer for 3. kvartal og centrale PCE-data for september måned. På centralbankfronten kommer ECB og Bank of Canada til orde, mens markeder spekulerer i potentielle rentestigninger. Indtjeningssæsonen fortsætter også med den travleste uge i kvartalet indtil nu.

Amerikansk opsving i fokus med Q3 BNP og Core PCE-tal

Inflation har været det store problem for global og amerikansk økonomi det meste af året. Det bliver endnu vigtigere, hvor økonomier begynder at komme ud på den anden side af pandemien.

Feds foretrukne inflationsindikator, Core PCE-indekset, offentliggøres fredag og måler forbrugerinflationen i september.

August viste en stigning på 0,4% i udgifterne til personligt forbrug, hvilket stort set var på linje med forventningerne. Hvis man ser bort fra mad og energi lå Core PCE-inflationen på 0,3% den seneste måned. Det var også oppe med 3,6% på årsbasis i august.

Det officielle råd fra Fed er, at eventuelle prishop er midlertidige. De har måske en pointe. De månedlige PCE-gevinster er dybest set halveret siden april måneds stigning på 0,6%. Andre indikatorer, såsom den aftagende vækst i forbrugerprisindekset, bakker op om denne påstand.

Et andet vigtigt nøgletal for det amerikanske økonomiske opsving vil blive frigivet i denne uge. Avancerede BNP-tal for 3. kvartal offentliggøres torsdag. Fed og Det Hvide Hus vil uden tvivl håbe, at væksten vil overgå forventningerne efter et skuffende andet kvartal.

BNP-data for andet kvartal viste oprindeligt en vækst i USA’s bruttonationalproduktet på 6,3%, selvom dette er blevet opjusteret til en endelig værdi på 6,7%. Dow Jones havde forventet en vækst på 8,2% i andet kvartal.

Forudsigelserne for 3. kvartal 2021 er mildest talt blandede. Atalanta Fed, der tidligere forudsagde en vækst på omkring 5,7%, har reduceret den forventede vækst i tredje kvartal til kun 0,5%.

Goldman Sachs er meget mere optimistisk, men har stadig nedjusteret deres forventede vækstprognose. Goldman forudså tidligere en vækst på 6,2% i tredje kvartal. Nu er niveauet mere på 5,7%.

Hvis vi forbliver hos Goldman, citerer banken rapporter om bløde jobs og virkningen af ​​Delta-varianten som årsager til at opbremsningen i væksten. Realistisk set vil det amerikanske BNP altid bremse op, hvis økonomien når en form for præpandemisk normalitet.

Centralbank vagt: ECB og Bank of Canada taler i denne uge

Den Europæiske Centralbank ser ud til at være lidt i klemme, hvis man skal tro rapporterne. Ifølge en undersøgelse foretaget af Deutsche Bank blandt 600 investorer forventer 42%, at ECB forbliver for tilbageholdende for længe.

Andrea Enria, formand for ECB’s advisory board, udtalte, at forsigtighed stadig er kodeordet, men indikerer samtidig, at EU’s økonomiske udsigter lysner.

Ikke-offentliggjorte interne modeller antyder, at inflationen kunne nå ECB’s illusoriske mål på 2% inden 2025. På dette grundlag kan renterne stige tidligere end forventet. Nogle investorer er begyndt at prissætte højere renter i begyndelsen af ​​2023.

ECB’s politiske beslutningstager Pablo Hernandez De Cos siger, at der ikke er nogen renteforhøjelse på vej endnu. Han forudser tidligst ændringer i bankens basisrente i 2023. Nogle investorer er måske allerede begyndt at prissætte dette.

Det kan give problemer for nogle sydeuropæiske lande, som ifølge Markus Frühauf fra det tyske dagblad FAZ ikke har råd til at holde renten lav i meget længere tid.

Truer der en troværdighedskrise for Den Europæiske Centralbank? Inflationsbølgen ville ramme fattigere lande i EU end rigere stater. Uafhængige centralbanker, såsom Fed eller Bank of England, har den luksus at være i stand til i det væsentlige at passe på sig selv i stedet for at følge den finansielle linje, som Bruxelles har udstukket.

Det bliver interessant at se, hvordan banken håndterer disse udfordringer, og om der rent faktisk er nogen indikation på en renteændring på onsdagens ECB-pressekonference.

Når vi taler om tidlige renteforhøjelser, er Bank of Canada muligvis på vej med en. Vi ved mere om BoC’s holdning på onsdag, men økonomer mener, at april er tidspunktet, hvor vi vil se tingene ændre sig i det store hvide nord.

David Wolf fra Fidelity og tidligere rådgiver for Bank of Canada mener, at vi vil se rente stige efterfølgende. Stærke jobrapporter og høj inflation – i øjeblikket på det dobbelte af BoC’s mål på 2% – kan tvinge guvernør Tiff Macklem.

Wells Fargo tror også, at vi vil se en canadisk rentebevægelse næste år.

“Vi forventer også, at Bank of Canada hæver sin styringsrente i 2022, startende med en indledende renteforhøjelse på 25 bps til 0,50% på sit monitære politiske møde i juli 2022 og en yderligere 25 bps renteforhøjelse i 4. kvartal af 2022,” oplyser investeringsbanken i en meddelelse. “Med hensyn til den indledende renteforhøjelse, tror vi, at risiciene hælder mod en tidligere snarere end senere stigning. Vi forudser også flere rentestigninger i 2023 og forventer en kumulativ stramning på 75 bps i det år.”

Aggressive stemmer opfordrer til en rentejustering. Lad os se, hvad Bank of Canada har at sige i denne uge.

En uventet god uge forude for indtægter

Husk, at det stadig er indtjeningssæson på Wall Street. Denne uge vil være de travleste fem regnskabsdatoer for det kommende kvartal, hvor mange store tech-virksomheder vil fremlægge deres regnskab.

Hold øje med Amazon, Apple, Twitter, Facebook og Spotify, som er blandt de store teknologivirksomheder, der fremlægger deres tal i denne uge. Vi vil også se mange FMCG-virksomheder, såsom Coca-Cola, fremlægge deres tal.

For mere information om, hvilke virksomheder der fremlægger med regnskaber hvornår, tjek vores sæsonkalender med indtjeningsrapporter fra USA.

Vigtige økonomiske data

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Asset  Event 
Mon 25-Oct  9:00am  EUR  German ifo Business Climate 
       
Tue 26-Oct  3:00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
  3:00pm  USD  Richmond Manufacturing Index 
Wed 27-Oct  1:30am  AUD  CPI q/q 
  1:30pm  AUD  Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 
  1:30pm  USD  Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Durable Goods Orders m/m 
  3:00pm  CAD  BOC Monetary Policy Report 
  3:00pm  CAD  BOC Rate Statement 
  3:30pm  CAD  Overnight Rate 
  3:30pm  OIL  US Crude Oil Inventories 
  Tentative  CAD  BOC Press Conference 
       
Thu 28-Oct  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Outlook Report 
  Tentative  JPY  Monetary Policy Statement 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Press Conference 
  12:45pm  EUR  Monetary Policy Statement 
  12:45pm  EUR  Main Refinancing Rate 
  1:30pm  EUR  ECB Press Conference 
  1:30pm  USD  Advance GDP q/q 
  1:30pm  USD  Advance GDP Price Index q/q 
  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3:00pm  USD  Pending Home Sales m/m 
  3.30pm  GAS  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri 29-Oct  9:00am  EUR  German Prelim GDP q/q 
  1:30pm  CAD  GDP m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Core PCE Price Index m/m 
  2:45pm  USD  Chicago PMI 
  3:00pm  USD  Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 

 

Indtjeningsrapporter

Mon 25 Oct  Tue 26 Oct  Wed 27 Oct  Thu 28 Oct  Fri 29 Oct 
  3M Co (MMM)  Automatic Data Processing (ADP)  Caterpillar Inc (CAT)   AbbVie (ABBV)  
  General Electric (GE)   Boeing (BA)  Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)   Alibaba (BABA)  
  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)  CME Group (CME)  Mastercard (MA)   Aon (AON) 
  Alphabet Inc C (GOOG)  Coca-Cola Co (KO)  Merck & Co Inc (MRK)   Chevron (CVX)  
  Alphabet Inc A (GOOGL)  General Motors (GM)   Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)   Exxon Mobil (XOM)  
Facebook (FB)  Microsoft Corp (MSFT)  The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)   Shopify (SHOP)   Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) 
  QuantumScape (QS)  McDonald’s Corp (MCD)   Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK)    
  Twitter Inc (TWTR)  Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)   Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)    
  Visa Inc Class A (V)   Ford Motor Co (F)   Apple Inc (AAPL)    
    Pinterest (PINS)  Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)    
    Teladoc Health (TDOC)  Starbucks Corp (SBUX)    
    Twilio (TWLO)     

US GDP growth stumbles in Q2

A slower-than-expected rise in GDP cools expectations of US economic growth this year. But is it all doom and gloom?

US GDP

Slowing American GDP growth disappoints markets

Despite estimates forecasting another surging quarter for the US economy, annualised GDP growth failed to match the Dow Jones estimate of 8.4%.

GPD instead rose 6.5% in Q2 2021 according to the US Commerce Department’s initial reading today. Q1’s gross domestic product was downrated slightly to 6.3%.

So, a disappointing quarter which promised so much. Markets were expecting the US economy to surge as pent up demand gets unleashed. That hasn’t happened.

Even so, 6.5% is still pretty rapid expansion for a mature economy like the US.

We’ve seen in July PMI releases that economic activity in the manufacturing and services sectors dropped off compared with June. Higher prices of raw materials, and a labour shortage, all contributed to the lower output. Let’s be clear: the readings still showed growth, at 60.6 and 60.1 respectively, but it appears to be cooling off.

Other factors are at play here too. The delta variant appears to be running rampant throughout the southern states. Surging prices caused by inflation has weakened purchasing power. The impact of the huge fiscal stimulus provided by the Biden Administration is starting to wear off.

The labour market, in particular, has struggled to reach its pre-pandemic levels. There remains a gap of about 6.8 million jobs missing from the sector pre-market. This comes despite last months’ bumper nonfarm payrolls print when 850,000 new jobs were added to the US economy.

400,000 new unemployment insurance claims were filed in the week ending July 24th. That’s roughly double the pre-pandemic level. Continuing claims now floats around the 3.27 million mark.

The outlook for the next quarter, based on these stats, has diminished. Some estimates forecast 3.5% growth – not exactly the fire-breathing rapid rise we were anticipating.

Private domestic investment fell by 3.5% in the last quarter. Federal spending also dropped 5%. A rise in imports was also noted.

Are there any positives regarding this quarter’s US GDP growth?

Actually, yes.

With the latest estimates, the US GDP is now above pre-pandemic levels, indicating there are still strong fundamentals powering the economy along.

Personal savings essentially halved during the review period from $4.1 trillion to $1.97 trillion. Consumers stashing savings isn’t a good thing for sophisticated economies, so it was encouraging to see consumers spend.

Inf act, 69% of all economic activity in the US during Q2 2021 was driven by consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. During the review period, it jumped up 11.7%.

The US economy has come on leaps and bounds since the first Covid shutdown. At its lowest point, gross economic output slumped 31.4% in Q2 2020. After that, it rebounded 33.4% and has continued on a growth footing ever since.

If we remove Covid-19 and its economic effects from the equation, current second quarter GDP growth would represent the fastest rate since 2003.

So, there is some room for optimism – but be sure to temper it with the realisation we’ve probably seen peak recovery for this year already. It’s like that growth will slow throughout the rest of the year as the economy fully resets.

Week Ahead: The Fed meets as inflation bites

The Fed meets as inflation starts to bite into the US economy. Will we see any major changes from Powell and co? US GDP is in focus too with forecasts calling for more record quarterly growth. Meanwhile, Tesla hits the accelerator on the busiest US earnings season week so far this quarter.

Earnings reports aside, the week’s big event is July’s FOMC meeting.

Inflation and a hot-running economy are likely to take centre stage during July’s talks. We’ve recently seen Chairman Powell pledge “powerful support” for the US economy post-pandemic amidst a backdrop of rising inflation.

According to Powell, current rising consumer prices is down to the nation’s reopening and will fade. In a testimony to the US House of Representatives, Powell stuck to the jobs script, pointing out there is still 7.5 million jobs missing from the US’ pre-pandemic economy.

A reduction in stimulus is some way off, according to Powell. The Fed’s $120bn a month bond purchasing programme is probably not going to change. As mentioned above, this is tied in with labour markets. Bond-buying and Fed support will likely remain in place until those job gaps are filled.

No rate hike is expected until 2023 at the earliest.

But for all the Fed’s talk of inflation being broad-based, stemming from heightened economic activity, many remain unconvinced on the plan to let the economy run hot.

June’s headline CPI print of 5.4% was the highest reading for nearly 13 years. Observers on both the Democratic and Republic side will be hoping this can be tamed relatively soon.

Powell has promised that if inflation runs rampant, “we will use our tools to guide inflation back down.”

But “it would be a mistake to act prematurely.”

Sticking with the US economy, we are due the first reading of the nation’s Q2 GDP on Thursday.

So far, predictions are good. Deloitte cites technological advances may help power the US towards another bumper quarter – outstripping pre-pandemic growth levels.

The Conference Board has predicted the US economy will grow at an annualised 9% in 2021’s second quarter.

“As the economy fully reopens and consumer confidence continues to rise, we expect consumer spending to help drive the recovery forward – especially spending on in-person services,” TCB said. “These outlays will be underpinned by a strengthening labour market and a large pool of savings derived from three rounds of fiscal stimulus checks dispersed over the last year.”

We’ve also seen in previous PMI releases that manufacturing and services sectors have continued to act on a growth footing into June following a strong April and May. Three months of solid PMI performance should help power US GDP growth this quarter.

But again, all of this pent up demand being unleashed is leading into the higher core consumer goods prices the US is currently experiencing. We’ve also had reports of high input prices starting to affect manufacturing output too. June’s manufacturing PMI reading was actually slightly lower than May’s for instance.

But, if predictions are correct, the US is about to experience one of its best periods of quarterly growth since the Second World War.

Moving away from data, it’s the busiest week for earnings season this quarter so far.

Nearly 40 US large caps are due to share their Q2 earnings this week. This includes the bulk of the FAANG stocks. Netflix reported last week, but these remaining tech giants, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Facebook, and Apple, are all reporting in.

Tesla, however, kicks off proceedings with its earnings summary coming on Monday after US market close.

This is interesting because Tesla has rocketed 330% in terms of share price between May 2020-May 2021 and traditionally share prices tend to rise prior to Tesla releases. They have done so at an average of 1.6% ahead of all quarterly releases for the past three years.

Elon Musk’s carmaker has much to celebrate this quarter. It delivered 200,000 in a quarter for the first time. Tesla has also unleashed a range of new automation services, based on an $199-per month subscription service.

Earnings forecasts are strong, but we’ll know more on Monday.

For more information on which large caps are reporting, be sure to check out our US earnings calendar.

Major economic data

Date Time (GMT+1) Asset Event
Mon 26-Jul 9.00am EUR German ifo Business Climate
 
Tue 27-Jul 3.00pm USD US Consumer Confidence
 
Wed 28-Jul 2.30am AUD CPI q/q
  2.30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
  1.30pm CAD CPI m/m
  3.30pm OIL US Crude Oil Inventories
  7.00pm USD FOMC Statement
  7.00pm USD Federal Funds Rate
  7.30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
 
Thu 29-Jul 1.30pm USD Advanced GDP q/q
  3.30pm GAS US Natural Gas Inventories
 
Fr 30-Jul 9.00am EUR Germany Preliminary GDP q/q
  1.30pm CAD GDP m/m
  1.30pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m

 

Key earnings data

Mon 26 Jul Tue 27 Jul Wed 28 Jul Thu 29 Jul Fri 30 Jul
Tesla 3M Automatic Data Processing CME AbbVie
General Electric Boeing Keurig Dr Pepper Aon
Advanced Micro Devices McDonald’s Mastercard Caterpillar
Alphabet (Google) Pfizer Merck Chevron
Apple Shopify Amazon Exxon Mobil
Microsoft Spotify Gilead Procter & Gamble
Mondelez Facebook Liberty Global Takeda Pharmaceutical
Starbucks Ford Pinterest Berkshire Hathaway
Teladoc Health PayPal Twilio
Visa Qualcomm

 

Week Ahead: US GDP and consumer confidence shake as inflationary pressure grows

It’s relatively quiet in terms of major announcements this week. The bulk of the key market-moving data will be coming from the US, as preliminary quarterly GDP figures are released alongside the latest CB consumer confidence sentiment. Both will be enlightening as to US economic sentiment as inflation stops lurking in the background and comes to the fore. 

We start, though, with New Zealand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest cash rate decision and statement is due early on Wednesday morning. No major changes are expected to the current official cash rate (OCR) of 0.25%, although inflationary pressures look like they are starting to make their mark on New Zealand’s economy.  

RBNZ targets 2% inflation, which may have already been breached.  

“We are forecasting a 0.6% increase for the quarter yielding 2.6% annual inflation. Another way of thinking about this is that CPI inflation for the three quarters to March 2021 was already 2.0%,” says Bank of New Zealand’s Head of Research Stephen Toplis. 

While inflation is probably already here, the likelihood of a rate hike is low. ANZ’s Chief Economist Sharon Zollner and senior strategist David Croy suggest rates won’t rise until August 2022, rising to 0.75%. The pair also predict a further two rate increases across 2023, culminating in a final 1.75% figure.  

Looking to US data, preliminary q/q GDP figures are released on Thursday, following up the advance reading from late April. At 6.4%, annualised US GDP growth was the second-largest since 2003, surging as the economy reopens again. Growth was stimulated by numerous sectors, including increased personal consumption, fixed residential and nonresidential investment, and government spending.  

Preliminary readings are the mid stage of the overall GDP reporting process before the final reading is released at the end of the month. The advanced reading is generally the strongest indicator, but revisions to final figures are not uncommon. 

US consumer confidence is in focus too. Friday sees the latest printing of the CB consumer confidence index. April’s reading beat expectations, rising from 109 points in Mach to 121.7. Consumers had more cash in their pockets, thanks to Biden’s stimulus cheques, and were happy to spend it. 

However, inflation could cloud May’s Consumer Board readings. The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dipped to 82.8 for May from 88.3 in April – a 6.2% month-on-month decline. 

Consumer sentiment has taken a knock due to higher-than-expected headline inflation, recorded at 4.6% in April. This is the sharpest rate of increase since 2008. Headline inflation stood at 2.6% in March. 

Increased consumer spending was a cornerstone of Q1 GDP growth. Should that retract as inflation grows, the calls for the Fed to shake up its monetary policy could become all the more louder as the year rolls on.  

 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Currency  Event 
Tue 25-May  9.00am  EUR  German ifo Business Climate 
  3.00pm  USD  US CB Consumer Confidence 
       
Wed 26-May  3.00am  NZD  Official Cash Rate 
  3.00am  NZD  RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 
  3.00am  NZD  RBNZ Press Statement 
  4.00am  NZD  RBNZ Press Conference 
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 27-May  1.30pm  USD  Preliminary GDP q/q 
  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment claims 
  3.00pm  USD  Pending house sales 
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri 28-May  1.30pm  USD  Core PCE Price Index m/m 

 

Key earnings data 

Date  Company  Event 
Tue 25-May  Intuit  Q3 2021 Earnings 
     
Wed 26-May  Nvidia  Q1 2022 Earnings 
     
Thu 27-May  Salesforce  Q1 2022 Earnings 
  Costco  Q3 2021 Earnings 
  Royal Bank of Canada  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Toronto-Dominion Bank  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Fri 28-May  National Bank of Canada  Q2 2021 Earnings 

Week Ahead: Apple and Tesla earnings, Fed meeting and US GDP in focus

Lots to bite our teeth into this week. We start with the Fed, although we’re not anticipating big things. An optimistic GDP outlook is coming for the US, though, while consumer confidence indicators are on their way.

Elsewhere, China’s manufacturing PMI data is released after 13 months of straight growth.

We’re also looking at another earnings charge as Wall Street reporting season rolls on with Apple, Facebook, Tesla, Alphabet and Microsoft all due to deliver quarterly numbers.

Fed meeting: no major changes ahead

America is gradually getting back to normality. The vaccine roll-out is picking up, people are returning to work and leisure, lockdown restrictions are easing and the economy is surging.

“You can see the economy opening, you can see the riderships [sic] on airplanes going up and people going back to restaurants,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a recent Economic Club interview. “I think we’re going into a period of faster growth and higher job creation and that’s a good thing.”

So, what does this mean for the week’s Fed rate decision? The FOMC meets this week amidst speculation that the current “easy money” strategy may not be the right one.

With three stimulus deals pumping more liquidity into the economy, and historically low rates, ominous inflation war drums are sounding for some. However, we’re not likely to see any wholesale changes this week, with no change expected to rates until at least 2023 and bond purchases continuing at the current pace at least until later this year.

Powell has laid out the criteria for a major policy shift:

  • Effective complete recovery in the labour market
  • Inflation reaching 2%
  • Inflation running above 2% for a sustainable period of time

None of those boxes have been ticked thus far. Even so, jobs numbers are improving. The unemployment rate nudged down to 6% with last nonfarm payrolls. The extra liquidity afforded by Biden’s stimulus deals may also pump up consumer good prices too. Conditions for a rate change are swirling around.

But don’t go into the FOMC press conference expecting a blitz of new policy changes. The course is a steady one from here on out.

US quarterly GDP set to soar as economy roars

With the US economy roaring back to life, US GDP forecasts for the first quarter are electric.

Q4 2020 saw GDP growth revised upward from 4.1% to 4.3% as US consumers splash their stimulus cash. Consumer spending has been the key driver, but other areas of business investment are helping an economic surge. Exports rose 22.3%. Business investment in intellectual property, inventories and residential housing was up too.

All very good – but the real surge could be about to begin. Estimates for Q1 2021 GDP are exceptionally high.

The Atlanta Fed forecasts a whopping 8.3% at its latest GDP estimates dated April 16th. The key driver here is personal income. In January, household wealth increased by $2 trillion, alongside a 2.4% rise in spending. Combined with the other factors at play, like higher nonfarm payrolls, consumer spending, and industrial output, the recipe for high GDP growth is all there.

Extra household stimulus cheques are on their way. As vaccine rollout progresses, and further sectors are opened to individual spending, it’s likely GPD growth will surge. The challenge, then, is sustaining it.

Can US consumer confidence stay high?

It seems highly likely: consumer confidence hit a one-year high in March and things have only improved since then regards vaccines, reopening and stimulus. Given the way the vaccine rollout and economy are performing, this will probably be the case in April too.

Let’s look at March’s data to gauge April sentiment. Last month, consumers were upbeat about the jobs market. They were feeling cheery as restrictions on small-businesses are lifted. The thought of extra free cash from stimulus cheques is lifting the mood.

Big ticket items like cars, houses and household appliances are on US consumers’ shopping lists going forward as a savings glut plus extra government money is increasing spending power.

In point terms, the Confidence Board’s survey jumped 19.3 points to hit 109.7 in March. That’s the highest it has been for a year, and the highest points leap since April 2004.

March’s mood was good. Will we see the same in April?

China manufacturing PMI: can the sector bounce back?

China’s manufacturing PMI data is released this week as the nation’s economic recovery gains traction.

March’s index showed an increase over February’s numbers, rising from 50.6 to 51.9. While growth is still historically low for Chinese manufacturing, a reading over 50 implies the sector is still expanding. In fact, PMIs have shown growth readings for 13 straight months.

Production capacity was closed during Lunar Festival but it’s been back online. This is partly responsible for the PMI rise, but there are more important factors at play. Namely, the global economic recovery.

Orders are up, which means Chinese plants are busier. The US stimulus cheques are feeding into higher demand for consumer goods – great news for Chinese factory owners. Additionally, domestic and international orders of machinery like excavators are helping prop up sectoral growth.

Future prospects are buoyed by big spending plans overseas. Joe Biden’s mammoth infrastructure plan, if it passes, is being hungrily eyed by Chinese construction machinery and materials manufacturers. There’s profit to be had stateside.

China is on course for a bumper first quarter according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth has clocked in at a record 18.3%, following an economic surge that completely outpaces the US stellar growth.

While the short term outlook is encouraging, questions around sustainability remain. Exports, fuel for China’s manufacturing fire, were up 38.7% overall in Q1 2021, but those eye-watering numbers have been tempered by somewhat by the drop in export activity between February and March. A cause for concern to be sure, so this week’s PMI release will be interesting to watch.

Tech-heavy week ahead for earnings season

Wall Street prepares for another earnings barrage this week. As ever in earnings season, the reports are coming thick and fast.

There’s a bit of a tech focus to earnings this week. Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla are all reporting in. Tesla will be interesting, purely to see the impact its decision to spend billions on bitcoin has had on its financials. Previous reports suggest it has made more profit from the crypto this year then selling cars.

Apple’s financials come after the company’s 2021 launch event. A shiny new colour the iPhone twelve, plus a rainbow of hues for iMacs, Apple TV updates, and more have all been launched – but the focus is very much on iPhone 12 sales. With six out of every ten smartphones sold in Q1 being an iPhone, Apple could be looking at another record breaking quarter.

We also see oil majors ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, TOTAL, and Chevron share earnings, which probably won’t be as colossal as Apple’s. ExxonMobil says resurgent oil prices means figures may be better than expected but could be facing a chilling $800m loss thanks to the Texas Big Freeze. Will we see more hefty losses for the majors?

See below for a roundup of this week’s reporting large caps.

Major economic data

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Currency  Event 
Mon 26-Apr  9.00am  EUR  German IFO Business Climate 
       
Tue 27-Apr  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Outlook Report 
  Tentative  JPY  Monetary Policy Statement 
  Tentative  JPY  BOJ Press Conference 
  3.00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
       
Wed 28-Apr  All day  All  OPEC-JMMC Meeting 
  2.30am  AUD  CPI q/q 
  2.30am  AUD   Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 
  1.30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1.30pm  CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
  7.00pm  USD  FOMC Statement 
  7.00pm  USD  Federal Funds Rate 
  7.30pm  USD  FOMC Press Conference 
       
Thu 29-Apr  2.00am  NZD  Final ANZ Business Confidence 
  1.30pm  USD  Advance GDP q/q 
  1.30pm  USD  Advance GPD Index q/q 
  1.30pm  USD  Unemployment claims 
  3.00pm  USD   Pending House Sales 
       
Fri 30-Apr  2.00am  CNY  Manufacturing PMI 
  9.00am  EUR  Germany Prelim GDP q/q 
  1.30pm  CAD  GDP m/m 

 

Key earnings data

Date  Company  Event 
Mon 26-Apr  Tesla  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Vale  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Canadian National Railway Co.  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Philips  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
Tue 27-Apr  Microsoft  Q3 2021 Earnings 
  Alphabet (Google)  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Visa  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Novartis  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Texas Instruments  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Starbucks  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  HSBC  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  GE  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  3M  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  AMD  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  BP  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Mondalez  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Chubb  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Capital One  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
     
Wed 28-Apr  Facebook  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Apple  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  QUALCOMM  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Boeing  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Moody’s  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  NOVATEK  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Spotify  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Ford Motor Corp  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
Thu 29-Apr  Amazon  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Samsung  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  MasterCard  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  China Construction Bank  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  McDonald’s  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Royal Dutch Shell  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Bank of China  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Sony  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Caterpillar  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  TOTAL  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Airbus  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  S&P Global  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Gilead  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Sinopec  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  BASF  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Baidu  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Equinor  Q1 2021 Earnings 
     
Fri 30-Apr  Alibaba  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  ExxonMobil  Q1 2020 Earnings 
  AstraZeneca  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  BNP Paribas  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Colgate-Palmolive  Q1 2021 Earnings 

Week Ahead: Acronyms a-go-go – CPI, PMI & GDP releases

A lot of economic data is released in key economies this week. Starting with the UK, CPI and retail sales figures are released, with furlough and lockdown still looming large over the economy. US GDP numbers for the first quarter are finalised but the focus will be on business sentiment showing up in a fresh batch of PMI releases from the US, UK and Eurozone amid vaccine progress that is diverging in the major economies.  

UK CPI 

Investors and FX traders will be watching UK inflation figures this week following the Bank of England decision. 

Inflation is in focus in the UK right now, as the effects of rising bond yields, further government economic support via Chancellor Sunak’s “spend now, tax later” budget, and the Bank of England’s response continue to colour the economic picture. 

ONS data shows the latest full-year CPI at 0.9%. Across 2021, the CPI is expected to rise to 1.5% across the year. Some estimates suggest it may even rise to 1.8% by April. 

 CPI inflation for the UK came in at -0.2% monthonmonth in January, down on December’s 0.3%, but the figure was above the -0.4% the market was expecting. 

CPI inflation rose 0.7% year-on-year in January, which is above December’s figure of 0.6% and above the consensus expectation for a reading of 0.6%. January’s upward trend was driven by rising prices of food, transport, and household goods. 

UK Retail Sales 

UK retail sales data is released this week. The latest industry data suggests February was a solid month for the UK’s retail sector, according analysis from KPMG. 

Total sales were up 1% in February on a like-for-like basis against last year’s stats. Importantly, this was a sharp reversal of January’s retail sales, where sales contracted 1.3% against 2020’s figures. 

Driving February’s growth was March’s reopening of schools across England. Spending on non-food items, like school uniforms and stationery, was up as shopper’s fell into the back-to-school trend.

Non-essential stores still remain shuttered in England and will remain so until April 12th. Online sales are benefitting greatly from lockdown, mainly because consumers have no other choice but to use digital outlets to get their non-essential items. Non-food spending accounts for 61% of February sales – up nearly double compared with 31% in February 2020. 

However, overall consumer spending is down, Barclaycard reports, slipping 13.8% y-o-y in February. Lockdown restrictions on hospitality and leisure continue to weigh heavy. No doubt they’ll surge once full lockdown restrictions are removed in June, but until then the sector is going to greatly underperform. 

US, UK, EU PMI 

PMI data is released in major economies this week as the UK, US, and EU share index findings. 

Starting with the UK, observers will be hoping the momentum started in February will continue into March. The IHS Markit/CIPS Composite PMI gave a reading of 49.6 for February, up from an eight-month low of 41.2 in January.  

Some industries are performing above expectation. According to IHS Markit, UK construction was perkier than forecast in February, with the construction PMI at 53.3 from 49.2, as projects halted by Covid-19 were given the green light to continue or begin. Manufacturing continued an upward swing too, rising to 55.1 last month. 

However, services remain disappointing, with the revised February figure chalked up as 49.5 – still below the 50 growth threshold. This is perhaps to be expected. Leisure and hospitality are still heavily restricted, so don’t expect any upward trends in March. 

EU leaders were breathing a little easier after  February’s numbers.  For instance, manufacturing was up to 57.9 in February from 54.8 in January – a 3-year high – led by strong performance from The Netherlands and Germany. 

However, since then the outlook for Europe has deteriorated as Covid cases in France and Germany have spiraled and Italy has entered a fresh lockdown. Survey data may not reflect the recent developments fully. 

Hopping across the Atlantic, the US enjoyed a smash-hit manufacturing PMI in February, blowing the EU’s impressive numbers out the water. The US manufacturing PMI came in at 60.8 – the highest level seen for 3 years. However, that impressive figure may be cooled by issues in the supply chain.  

According to manufacturers surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), commodities and component prices are rising. The steel price is up, for instance, which massively affects pricing for the US manufacturing sector. 

US GDP 

The final reading for US Q4 2020 GDP comes this week but all eyes are really on the updated forecasts we are getting for 2021. Last week the Federal Reserve raised its outlook for growth to 6.5% this year, up from 4.2% expected at the time of the December meeting.  

The OECD and several investment banks have also upped their guidance for US growth this year. Therefore, high frequency data like the weekly unemployment claims and personal income and spending figures will be the ones to watch, particularly as the arrival of $1,400 stimulus cheques begins to be felt. 

Markets, however, like to look forward, not backward. Q1 2021’s GDP figures will be very interesting for the market. On that front, the outlook is optimistic. 

Back in December, Goldman upgraded its Q1 2021 GDP figure to 5%, following the passing of $900bn in stimulus. Joe Biden’s further $1.9bn stimulus package has been passed, which may influence the quarter’s GDP movement. 

More recently, the Philadelphia Fed has put Q1 2021 GDP growth at 3.2%, citing a brighter outlook for labour markets, although it has also bumped its inflation expectations up to 2.5% for this quarter’s CPI release. The Atlanta Fed is even more upbeat than its cousin to the north. Its initial Nowcast puts the quarter’s GDP growth at 5.2% – in line with Goldman’s December estimate.  

The point about unemployment raised by Philadelphia is pertinent here. The last Nonfarm payrolls indicated the jobs market was beginning to come off life support, surging 379,000. More people at work suggests more productivity, suggests healthy Q1 GDP growth. 

Essentially, we’re looking at a healthier US economy in 2021 so far. Morgan Stanley has even gone so far as to suggest pre-pandemic GDP growth will kick in as early as the end of March. That might be a bit too ambitious, but it’s an indicator of increased confidence regarding the United States. 

Major economic data 

 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Wed 24 Mar  7.00am  GBP  UK CPI y/y 
  8.15am  EUR  French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8.15am  EUR  French Flash Services PMI 
  8.30am  EUR  German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8.30am  EUR  German Flash Services PMI 
  9.00am  EUR  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9.00am  EUR  Flash Services PMI 
  9.30am  GBP  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9.30am  GBP  Flash Services PMI 
  1.45pm  USD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  1.45pm  USD  Flash Services PMI 
  2.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 25 Mar  8.30am  CHF  SNB Monetary Policy Statement 
  12.30pm  USD  Final GDP q/q 
  2.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri 26 May  7.00am  GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
  9.00am  EUR  German ifo Business Climate 

 

Key earnings data 

 

Date  Company  Event 
Mon 22 Mar  Saudi Aramco  Q4 2020 Earnings 
        
Tue 23 Mar  Adobe  Q1 2021 Earnings 
   Markit  Q1 2021 Earnings 
        
Wed 24 Mar  Tencent Holdings  Q4 2020 Earnings 
   Geely Motors  Q4 2020 Earnings 
        
Thu 25 Mar  CNOOC  Q4 2020 Earnings 

Week Ahead: Fed meets, US GDP & Big Tech earnings

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve holds its first meeting of the new year, with a range of new appointments in place, but a major policy change seems unlikely. Latest US GDP figures are released too. Forecasts are showing a mixed but optimistic outlook for Q4 2020’s numbers. Finally, earnings season continues with big tech firms leading the large caps in the latest earnings calls. 

FOMC meeting & press conference 

The first Federal Reserve meeting of 2021 goes ahead next week, off the back of newly inaugurated Joe Biden’s plans for additional stimulus and Treasury pick Janet Yellen’s calls to ‘act big’ on fiscal policy. $1.9 trillion is the ballpark figure for additional economic stimulus as the US seeks to shore up its economy against the continued Covid-19 onslaught. 

Four new regional Fed presidents are being rotated into the key voting spots this January – a rotation that could indicate a more dovish Fed for 2021. Out go Mester (hawk), Kashkari (dove), Kaplan (neutral) and Harker (neutral). In come Evans (dovish), Daly (neutral), Bostic (dove), and Barkin (neutral).  

New members provide a little interest, but the Fed is not about to change course, with Jay Powell making it clear that now is not the time to talk about tapering bond purchases, although some policymakers have suggested this may be warranted later in 2021. 

According to December 2020’s Fed meeting minutes, policymakers see rates staying in the 0%-0.25% currently targeted range until 2022, with a long-range estimate of 2.5%. No one foresees a rate hike this year. The status quo is very much in favour. According to Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a lot would have to happen for that to occur. 

There is a possibility of some increases in 2023, and maybe even as early as the second half of 2022. Three key points will be looked at: the health of small businesses, the effect of Fed lending programmes, many of which were closed by the end of 2020, and temporary vs permanent job losses. Overriding all of those though will be the continued response to the Covid-19 pandemic.  

Right now, it appears that the Fed will essentially be staying the course, committing to policy established across the course of 2020. 

Latest US GDP figures released

Like pretty much every advanced economy worldwide, the US was rocked by repeated blows from the Covid-19 pandemic. Thursday sees the advanced reading of Q4 GDP stats and the picture looks muddled to say the least. GDP diagnoses really depend on who you ask. 

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts 7.4% annualised growth in Q4 as of its January 15th release, although this has been revised down from 8.7% forecast on January 8th., The New York Fed’s Nowcast model indicates 2.5% expansion.  

GDP growth will all depend on which economic sectors can back on their feet fastest. The US Commerce Department stated recently that consumer spending, the US main economic engine, had been revised upward slightly, alongside fixed business investments. However, these were tempered by a drop in exports. Services, where 61% of consumer spending goes, were down 17% year-on-year in third quarter of 2020 – can they recover? Time will tell.  

Earnings Season – Apple, Microsoft and Facebook lead the large caps 

Earnings season continues on Wall Street and this week the focus shifts to tech giants. Big tech seems like it’s getting bigger and bigger with lockdowns playing into the sector’s hands. Will earnings reports confirm that? 

Apple could be onto its first-ever $100bn quarter as the consensus EPS climbs 12% year-on-year to $1.40. Holiday shopping season falls squarely into Apple’s first-quarter reporting, and with a multitude of iPhone 12 models hitting markets – enough for 30% rise in production numbers this quarter – the indicators a bumper earnings call coming from the California tech giants are pretty strong. 

Microsoft has been a winner. If you’re working from home, you’ve probably had to grapple with Microsoft Teams, now the de facto business communications software of choice for businesses around the globe.  

Cloud computing solutions are helping Microsoft push record quarterly revenues. With the increased uptake of products like Azure, GitHub, SQL Server, and Windows Server, commercial cloud services have generated 31% more revenue y-o-y in the recent quarter, hitting $15.2bn. Combined with its other productivity-led software, i.e. Office, Teams, etc., Microsoft Q1 2021 revenues are on course to reach $40.2bn.  

Facebook’s reputation has taken a bit of a hit in recent months. The spread of fake news and hate speech on the platform is one of the major complaints levelled at the company. 

Despite this, Facebook reported 12% growth in active daily users in the last quarter, up to 1.82bn, while monthly active users grew at the same rate, reaching 2.74bn – just over a quarter of the global population. Ad revenues are up 22% yoy too, even in the face of a boycott from 1,000 prominent advertisers. 

See below for a full breakdown of the large caps reporting earnings this week. 

Major Economic Data 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Mon Jan 25       
       
Tue Jan 26  7.00am  GBP  Unemployment Claims 
       
  3.00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
       
Wed Jan 27  12.30am  AUD  CPI q/q 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
  7.00pm  USD  FOMC Statement 
       
  7.00pm  USD  Federal Funds Rate 
       
  7.30pm  USD  FOMC Press Conference 
       
Thu Jan 28  1.30pm  USD  Advanced GDP q/q 
       
  1.30pm  USD  Advanced GDP Price Index q/q 
       
  3.00pm  USD  CB Leading Index m/m 
       
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri Jan 29  8.00pm  CHF  KOF Economic Barometer 
       
  1.30pm  CAD  GDP m/m 
       
  2.45pm  USD  Chicago PMI 
       
  3.00pm  USD  Pending Home Sales m/m 

 

Key Earnings Data 

Date  Company 
Mon 25 Jan  NIDEC  
  Philips 
  Kimberely-Clark 
  ADM 
  Graco Inc. 
  Brown & Brown 
  Equity Lifestyle Properties 
   
Tue 26 Jan  Microsoft 
  Visa 
  Johnson & Johnson 
  LVMH 
  Verizon 
  Novartis 
  NextEra Energy 
  Texas Instruments 
  Starbucks 
  AMD 
  United Technologies 
  American Express 
  General Electric 
  3M 
  Lockheed Martin 
  Canadian National Railway Co. 
  UBS 
  Capital One 
  Prologis 
  Rockwell Automation 
  PACCAR 
  D.R. Horton 
  Maxim Integrated Products 
  Epiroc 
  LG Household & Health Care 
  EQT AB 
  SGS SA 
  Varian 
  Boston Properties 
  Jacobs 
  Nitto Denko Corp. 
  Metro Inc. 
  C.H. Robinson 
  Disco Corp. 
  F5 Networks 
  W.R. Berkley 
  OBIC 
   
Wed 27 Jan  Apple 
  Tesla 
  Facebook 
  AT&T 
  Abbott Laboratories 
  Boeing 
  ServiceNow 
  Stryker 
  Lam Research 
  Anthem 
  Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. 
  Blackstone 
  Automatic Data Processing Inc. 
  Crown Castle 
  Norfolk Southern Corp. 
  Edward Lifesciences Corp. 
  FANUC CORPORATION 
  MediaTek 
  Lonza AG 
  CPR 
  General Dynamics 
  TE Connectivity Ltd 
  Las Vegas Sands Corp. 
  Amphenol Corp. 
  ITC Ltd. 
  Xilinx Inc. 
  V.F Corp 
  Corning Inc. 
  Axis Bank 
  Ameriprise Financial Inc. 
  Hormel Foods Corp. 
  Teradyne 
  Nasdaq Inc. 
  Nomura Research Institute 
  Essity AB 
  Cheil Industries 
  MarketAxess Holdings 
  Hologic 
  Omron  
  United Rentals 
  Rollins Inc. 
  PTC Inc 
  Duke Realty 
  Teledyne Technologies 
  Raymond James Financial 
  Cree Inc. 
  Packaging Corp. of America 
  Whirlpool 
  Textron 
  MKS Instruments 
  Hess Corp. 
   
Thu 28 Jan  Samsung 
  Mastercard 
  Comcast 
  Danaher 
  McDonald’s 
  Diageo 
  Mondelez 
  Altria 
  Sherwin-Williams 
  Air Products & Chemicals 
  Atlassian 
  Northrop Grumman 
  HOYA 
  Dow 
  Walgreens Boots Alliance 
  T. Rowe 
  Xcel Energy 
  ResMed 
  Fujitsu 
  Hyundai 
  Stanley Black & Decker 
  Southwest Airlines 
  Skyworks Solutions 
  McCormick & Co. 
  Rogers Communications 
  Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 
  Canon 
  UPM-Kymmene 
  Dover Corp. 
  Advantest 
  Nucor 
  Western Digital 
  Celanese Corp. 
  NVR Inc. 
  Principal 
  Eastman 
  PulteGroup 
  WestRock Co. 
   
Fri 29 Jan  Eli Lilly 
  SAP 
  Honeywell 
  Keyence 
  Charter Communications 
  Caterpillar 
  SK Hynix 
  Colgate-Palmolive 
  M3 
  Atlas Copco 
  Ericsson 
  Johnson Controls 
  H&M 
  Phillips 66 
  BBVA 
  Simon Property Group 
  Astellas Pharmacy 
  Simens Gamsea 
  Komatsu 
  LyondellBasell 
  WeyerHauser 
  LG Electronics 
  Synchrony Financial 
  Church & Dwight Co. 
  Sun Pharmaceutical 
  SG Holdings 
  Telia 
  CAIXABANK 
  NEC 
  Svenska Cellulosa AB 
  Booz Allen Hamilton 

 

 

 

Week Ahead: Big tech earnings to drive pre-election volatility

It’s set to be a volatile week for US markets as earnings season continues on Wall Street with Big Tech reporting. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Facebook are among the biggest names delivering their quarterly updates. Meanwhile central banks are in action aplenty with the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank all holding policy meetings. And we of course countdown to November’s US presidential election with all eyes on the Vix. 

Big Tech Earnings 

It’s a massive week for corporate earnings and the focus will undoubtedly fall on  the FAANGs with Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) all set to report quarterly earnings figures on Thursday. Earnings come amid scrutiny on big tech as the US Department of Justice opened an antitrust case against Google’s parent company, Alphabet, which focuses on agreements it has made with handset manufacturers and carriers to be the default search engine on new phones. Whilst investors have shrugged this off so far, earnings may well provide fuel for greater volatility in the stock. 

Meanwhile there are fears that the case could create headwinds for Apple’s services business. The DOJ said Apple earns between $8 billion and $12 billion from Google, which would equate to between 17% and 26% of Apple’s revenues from Services last year. Apple recently released its iPhone12 but increasingly the reason for the stock’s higher multiples is about the ecosystem and Services revenues. Nevertheless, analysts remain bullish on these tech giants and they remain among the biggest winners YTDMicrosoft reports on Tuesday and there are dozens of large cap stocks reporting over the next few days. 

ECB  

With the euro gaining ground again versus the US dollar, attention in the FX markets will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Markets are increasingly betting on the ECB carrying out further easing in a bid to boost faltering economic growth and stagnant prices. The Eurozone slid into its second straight month of deflation in September and with further lockdowns being imposed across the bloc, the risks to the economic outlook have clearly deteriorated since the last meeting. The threat of a double dip recession is real, with Christine Lagarde saying recently that the resurgence of the virus is a clear risk to the economy. Given the murky outlook and dreadful inflation backdrop it seems all but certain the ECB will increase its bond buying programme by another €500bn by December. 

To get a flavour of the mood in the ECB, the usually hawkish Austrian central bank head Robert Holzmann, said recently: “More durable, extensive or strict containment measures will likely require more monetary and fiscal accommodation in the short run.” 

Meanwhile there are also meetings of the Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada taking place this week. 

Economic Data 

The advanced reading for US GDP growth in the third quarter will be the highlight as markets look for clues to the pace and sustainability of the recovery.  The economy is expected growth in the region of 30% as businesses reopened following lockdowns. The Atlanta Fed’s forecast indicates the economy will have expanded by 35% on a quarterly basis – but this of course masks the real damage when it’s coming off the back of a 31% drop in Q2. The GDP reading comes at an opportune moment for Donald Trump who will be able to proclaim that the economy is on fire. 

Election Watch 

The final straight: polling data may not change much – the number of undecided voters has been small. Biden commands a strong national lead but in the key battlegrounds that will determine the result it’s tighter. We’re hosting a special pre-election live event on Nov 2nd to run through how the markets might react.  

Top Economic Data This Week

Open the economic calendar in the platform for a full list of events.

Date  Event 
Oct 26th  German Ifo business climate 
Oct 26th  UK Nationwide house price index 
Oct 26th  US new home sales  
Oct 26th  SNB Chairman Jordan speaks 
Oct 27th  BoJ core CPI 
Oct 27th  US durable goods, core durable goods 
Oct 27th  US CB consumer confidence 
Oct 28th  Australia CPI inflation 
Oct 28th  Bank of Canada rate decision 
Oct 28th  EIA crude oil inventories 
Oct 28th  FOMC member Kaplan speaks 
Oct 29th  Bank of Japan policy statement & economic outlook 
Oct 29th  German preliminary CPI inflation 
Oct 29th  UK mortgage approvals & lending figures 
Oct 29th  US advanced GDP – Q3 
Oct 29th  US weekly jobless claims 
Oct 29th  ECB policy decision & press conference 
Oct 29th  US pending home sales 
Oct 29th  US natural gas storage 
Oct 30th  Tokyo core CPI 
Oct 30th  Japan industrial production 
Oct 30th  French flash GDP 
Oct 30th  German preliminary GDP 
Oct 30th  Eurozone CPI flash estimates 
Oct 30th  Canada GDP 
Oct 30th  US personal spending & core PCE price index 
Oct 30th  Chicago PMI 
Oct 30th  UoM consumer sentiment 

 

Top Earnings Reports This Week

Don’t forget to tune into our Daily Earnings Season Specials on XRay for more updates

Date  Company  Event 
26-Oct  SAP SE  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  Microsoft Corp.  Q1 2021 Earnings 
27-Oct  Pfizer Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  Ping An Insurance Co.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  Merck Co.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  Novartis AG  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  Eli Lilly and Co.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  3M Co.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  Caterpillar Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  HSBC Holdings plc  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  S&P Global Inc  Q3 2020 Earnings 
27-Oct  BP plc   Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  Visa Inc.  Q4 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  MasterCard Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  Amgen Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  ServiceNow Inc  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  Boeing Co.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  Sony Corp.  Q2 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  Gilead Sciences Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  Anthem Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
28-Oct  Equinix Inc  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Apple Inc.  Q4 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Amazon  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Alphabet  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Facebook Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Samsung  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  China Life Insurance Co Ltd (A)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Comcast Corp. (Class A)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Shopify Inc (A)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Sanofi S.A.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  AB InBev SA-NV (Anheuser-Busch InBev)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  American Tower Corp.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Starbucks Corp.  Q4 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Shell (Royal Dutch Shell)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Volkswagen (VW) St.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  Stryker Corp.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec) (A)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
29-Oct  China Life Insurance Co. Ltd.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  China Construction Bank Corp.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  AbbVie Inc  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  ExxonMobil Corp. (Exxon Mobil)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  Chevron Corp.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  Honeywell  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  PetroChina Co Ltd (A)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  Postal Savings Bank of China Registered Shs -A-  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  TOTAL S.A.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  AUDI AG  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  Altria Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
30-Oct  Colgate-Palmolive Co.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
31-Oct  Berkshire Hathaway Inc.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
31-Oct  Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (A)  Q3 2020 Earnings 
31-Oct  Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
31-Oct  China Merchants Bank Co Ltd.  Q3 2020 Earnings 
31-Oct  Bank of China Ltd  Q3 2020 Earnings 

 

Trump suggests delaying US Presidential Election, US GDP better than expected

US President Donald Trump has tweeted that the US Presidential Election 2020 should be delayed beyond November. US stock market futures paid little attention to the comment, but the Dow was 300 points in the red anyway after US growth and jobs data. Trump claimed, without providing any evidence, that November’s ballot would be “the most inaccurate & fraudulent election in history”.

Can Trump delay the US 2020 Presidential Election?

The president has long taken issue with mail-in ballots, and has claimed before that they pose a high risk of fraud. Many states have already taken the decision to open mail-in ballots to all voters for safety reasons given the huge number of coronavirus cases in the United States.

As Helen Thomas pointed out in our earlier election coverage, “recent electoral results have indicated that expanding vote-by-mail favours Democrats, as the easy access to the ballot has increased turnout in their favour”.

US GDP better than forecast, but jobless claims rise

Markets were little cheered by the latest US economic data, despite a smaller than expected decline in Q2 GDP. The economy shrank by -32.9% between April and June, compared to forecasts of a -34.1% drop. The decline is still the largest drop in output since the Second World War.

Jobless claims figures published alongside the latest US growth data pointed to a small uptick in claims. 1.434 million Americans filed for jobless benefits in the week ending July 25th, up from 1.416 million the previous week. The four-week average has risen from 1.360 million to 1.368 million, and the number of continuing claims rose from 16.2 million to 17 million – a much larger increase than had been forecast.

Stocks edge further into negative territory

European stocks and US futures slowly drifted further into negative territory after the data, with Wall Street going on to open around -1% lower. Equities had been languishing in the red ever since this morning’s European data, which showed a larger-than-expected drop in Q2 GDP for Germany and a rise in Eurozone unemployment.

At the time of writing the DAX was down -4%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 was trending -3% lower.

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