Ugen der kommer: hvor varm bliver den engelske inflation denne måned?

Vi får i denne uge et godt indblik i inflationssituationen i USA, med to vigtige rapporter. Inflationen er i denne uge i søgelyset igen. CPI-indekset for Storbritannien er i fokus – vil høje tal tvinge Bank of England til at hæve renten i December? Vi får også et kig på CPI-tal fra Canada samt de seneste tal for USAs detailhandel her i opløbet til julehandelen.

Storbritanniens inflation er i fokus med de seneste CPI-data

Åh, inflation. Hunden der bider. For stort set alle større økonomier har vejen til genopretning efter Corona været brolagt med højere priser på næsten alt.

Her fokuserer vi på omkostninger på forbrugsgoder. Storbritannien deler onsdag morgen oktobers CPI-indeks.

Hvad er der på tapetet for Storbritannien? Ud fra septembers tal kan man sandsynligvis forvente prisstigninger på forbrugerprodukter. Vi er noget over Bank of Englands mål på 2%. Septembers data, udgivet i oktober, viste for anden måned i træk en år for år-stigning i CPI-indekset, med en stigning på 3,1%.

Der er dog grund til fortrøstning. På månedsbasis er CPI blot steget 0,3%. Noget mindre end augusts stigning på 0,7%.

Bevæger tingene sig i den rigtige retning? Ikke ifølge det britiske industri- og handelskammer. Detailgruppen har sagt at der er tale om “midlertidige forvridninger”, som ikke reflekterer virkeligheden.

Jaså. Brændstofpriserne er f.eks. eksploderet, blandt andet efter medie-drevne panikkøb tidligere i efteråret, men også høje priser på crude olie. Priserne på brændstof steg med hele 12% i oktober, ifølge data fra den britiske statistikbank.

Vil endnu et højt CPI-indeks forvandle duerne i Bank of England til høge? Vores chefanalytiker Neil Wilson har tidligere gravet dybt i tankegangen hos Bank of Englands komite for pengepolitik (MPC) i forhold til deres intentioner om rentestigninger.

Guvernør Andrew Bailey har i hvert fald sendt blandede signaler. Markederne har prissat en rentestigning ved novembers MPC-møde, baseret på månedsvis af kommentarer fra Bailey om at bruge deres værktøjer og bekæmpe inflationen. Så kom novembers pressemøde hos BoE, og voila! Ingen rentestigning. Tak for det, Andrew.

Realiteten er at forbrugsgoder og de generelle leveomkostninger i Storbritannien er kraftigt stigende. Noget må give sig, og snart.

Dataene vil blive set som en vigtig indikator for pundet, da det vil være en væsentlig faktor på BoEs møde i december, hvor mange forventer en rentestigning.

Canadas CPI-indeks lægger også pres på landets centralbank

På den anden side af Atlanten har Bank of Canada fået en morgenvækning af høje inflationstal.

Et stigende CPI-indeks drev inflationen til et 18-årigt højdepunkt i september i følge sidste måneds tal. Vi vil nu se på reaktionen på oktobers tal, som udgives på onsdag.

Årlig inflation som målt via CPI-indekset ramte 4,4% i september, over de 4,3% som analytikerne forventede. Det er den hurtigste inflation siden Februar 2003, ifølge Canadas statistikbureau. Ikke kun det, men inflationen er for sjette måned i træk udenfor BoCs kontrolbånd på 1-3%.

Ligesom i Storbritannien er det i høj grad drevet af stigende priser på brændstof, energi og mad. I modsætning til Storbritannien er Bank of Canada dog tilsyneladende på vej i aktion.

Den canadiske centralbank er allerede i gang med at aftrappe sine kvantitative lempelser. Men på ryggen af højere inflation lader det til at guvernør Macklem og kompagni er klar med en rentestigning så tidligt som i april 2022.

Vil dette være den katalysator, der bringer priserne ned? Måske. Måske ikke. Ifølge Macklem kan høj inflation være uundgåelig i resten af 2022. Verdens eksisterende dæmoner, høje energipriser og flaskehalse på udbudssiden, vil formentlig forblive med at være et problem.

Er en ny detailhandelsrekord på trapperne i USA?

Detailhandelen i USA er rødglødende i øjeblikket – selv om værdistigningen måske kan tilskrives at forbrugerpriserne er stigende.

Ser man på de rå data finder vi en månedlig stigning på 0,7% i september, versus en forventet stigning på 0,2%. Dette kommer i hælene på en stigning på 0,9% i august, hvor markedet forventede et fald på 0,7%.

Det lader til at COVID-19 ikke kan forsinke forbruget. Det er godt nyt. Højere priser eller ej (oktobers CPI-data viste en stigning på sviende 6,2%, viser statistikken at amerikanske forbrugere er klar på at bruge deres hårdt tjente penge. Dette kan hjælpe USA med at stå stabilt i fjerde kvartal.

Det ser godt ud frem mod jul. Vi er på vej ind i mellemperioden mellem forbrugsfesterne Thanksgiving og jul. Tal fra USAs brancheorganisation (NRF) for detailhandel viser at forbruget på tværs af disse intensive shoppingperioder vil stige med mellem 8,5% og 10,5% i forhold til 2020-niveauet – ca. 843,4 mia. USD til 859 mia. USD.

Det er ikke dårligt, hvis den årlige forbrugeromsætning overstiger de fleste landes BNP.

Brancheorganisationen tror også at USA i 2021 er på vej mod et rekordniveau hvad angår import af forbrugsvarer. Dette på trods af flaskehalse i udbud og logistik som følge af den verdensomspændende pandemi.

NRF siger at selv om antallet af importerede containere er lavere end for et år siden, er tallet fortsat højt og på vej mod en fremskrevet stigning for 2021 på 18%.

Men dette er at forhaste os. Vi skal stadig se oktobers data.

Indtjeningssæsonen er på hæld

Vi er næsten færdige med indtjeningssæsonen.

Indtjeningsrapporterne for Q3 er strømmet ind de sidste uge. De fleste megacaps har rapporteret ind. Indtil videre har vi set rapporter fra Apple, Tesla og Googles ejer Alphabet slå Wall Streets forventninger.

Wal-Mart, Nvidia og Cisco er de store navne, der rapporterer i denne uge.

Vigtige økonomiske data

Date  Time (GMT)  Asset  Event 
Mon 15-Nov  2:00am  CNY  Retail Sales y/y 
  1:30pm  USD  Empire State Manufacturing Index 
       
Tue 16-Nov  12:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
  2:30am  AUD  RBA Gov Lowe Speaks 
  1:30pm  USD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  USD  Retail Sales m/m 
  2:15pm  USD  Industrial Production m/m 
  5:00pm  USD  FOMC Member Barkin Speaks 
       
Wed 17-Nov  7:00am  GBP  CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  CPI m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Common CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Median CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Trimmed CPI y/y 
  3:30pm  OIL  Crude Oil Inventories 
  9:05pm  USD  FOMC Member Evans Speaks 
       
Thu 18-Nov  2:00am  NZD  Inflation Expectations q/q 
  1:30pm  USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 
  1:30pm  USD  Unemployment Claims 
  3.30pm  GAS  US Natural Gas Inventories 
       
Fri 19-Nov  7:00am  GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Retail Sales m/m 

 

Vigtige indtjeningsrapporter

Tue 16 Nov  Wed 17 Nov  Thu 18 Nov 
  Cisco Systems (CSCO) AMC   
Walmart (WMT) PMO    Alibaba (BABA) PMO 
  NVIDIA (NVDA) AMC   

 

BoE credibility?

“Oh, the grand old Duke of York 
He had ten thousand men 
He marched them up to the top of the hill 
And he marched them down again” 

 

There’s been a lot of talk about loose shopping trolleys in Westminster today amid the government’s U-turn on MPs’ standards. (I didn’t know they had any?). But we need to look only to Andrew Bailey for our grand old Duke of York, happily marching markets up the hill to expect a rate hike today only to need to march them back down again. 

 

The Bank of England delivered a surprise by not raising rates, sending gilts and sterling into a bit of a spin. It’s really one of those moments where you have to question the communication strategy of the BoE. It had multiple occasions on which it could have gently nudged against the growing market anticipation around the November meeting being live but chose not to, and appeared to actively encourage tightening bets. Credibility is at stake, Mr Bailey. I’d said a hike was no slam dunk due to the way certain MPC members were leaning, but Bailey has been cheerleading tighter policy and didn’t vote for it himself – which suggests either he’s bad at communicating his views or there were simply not enough votes for him so he refrained from being a minority voter.

 

Members of the MPC voted 7-2 to keep rates at 0.1%, a move that the market had not anticipated. Recent chuntering from the members had suggested a hike was incoming but it looks like the Hawks didn’t have the votes this time – 7/2 maybe belies just how close they were to hiking today though. Dave Ramsden and Michael Saunders were the two known hawks calling for a hike, but none of the others followed in their wake. Although Catherine Mann did join those two in voting for an end to QE. 

 

Market reaction has been swift with sterling offered off the back of the announcement. GBPUSD moved rapidly to test the 61.8% level we’d targeted at the start of the week. The FTSE 100 popped higher on the news with lower sterling and looser monetary policy seen as positive for risk.

Cable reaction following today's BoE rate decision.

 

The Bank of England is sticking to the transitory line on inflation…

 

“CPI inflation is expected to dissipate over time, as supply disruption eases, global demand rebalances, and energy prices stop rising. As a result, CPI inflation is projected to fall back materially from the second half of next year.” 

 

And thinks expectations are not off the leash – despite year-ahead expectations rising to 4.4% in October. A slight fall in 5- and 10-year expectations was cited as a reason to be calm. 

 

“The MPC judged that inflation expectations remained well anchored in the United Kingdom at present.” 

 

Caution around employment just enough to warrant dovishness, it would appear.

 

“Initial indicators suggest that unemployment will rise slightly in 2021 Q4.” 

 

But tightening is still seen ahead  – the question for markets is when?

 

“The Committee has judged that some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period was likely to be necessary to meet the 2% inflation target sustainably in the medium term.” 

Ugen der kommer: Er den høje inflation i UK kommet for at blive?

Der er meget at se frem til ift. de store data i denne uge. Først har vi Storbritanniens CPI-indeks. Holder inflationen ved længere end vi troede? UK og EU leverer også flash PMI-data, på et tidspunkt hvor det ligner at økonomisk aktivitet er på vej til at afmatte. Det er også sæson for indtjeningsrapporter i USA, hvor store tech-spillere tjekker ind.

UK CPI: kredsende høge og friske tryk

På datasiden er en af ugens store udgivelser det seneste forbrugerprisindeks fra UK.

Septembers udgave viste at inflationen havde mere end overgået Bank of Englands 2% mål for august. Forbrugerpriserne steg med hele 3,2% i de 12 måneder op til de officielle data for august – den højeste måned til måned-stigning siden målingerne begyndte i 2017.

Landets statistikbank (ONS) sagde at den kraftige stigning “så ud til at være midlertidig” og nævnte at regeringens Eat Out to Help Out-kampagne (EOHO) kunne være en del af forklaringen.

“I august 2020 var mange priser i restauranter og cafeer nedsatte på grund af regeringens Eat Out to Help Out-kampagne, som gav kunderne halv pris på mad og drikke op til £10 mellem mandag og onsdag,” sagde ONS i sin meddelelse.

“Fordi var en kortsigtet kampagne vil optrenden i 12-måneds inflationsraten for August 2021 formentlig være midlertidig.”

Den officielle forklaring har været at højere priser er midlertidige – men stemmer inden fra Bank of England advarer om at de kunne vare længere end først antaget.

BoEs nye cheføkonom Huw Pill har sagt at han regner med at den høje inflation kan fortsætte.

“I min optik er balancen mellem risici på vej mod bekymring om udsigten til inflation, da den nuværende inflationsstyrke ser ud til at vare længere end først forventet,” sagde Pill i september.

Pill giver stemme til koret af høge, som bygger sig op i BoEs bestyrelse. Et antal medlemmer af komiteen for pengepolitik kalder på en stigning i renten i starten af næste år. Som sådan vil en høj CPI igen i september give en øget volumen fra høgene.

Hejser PMI flaget for økonomisk afmatning?

Det er også den tid på måneden, hvor data om indkøbernes forventninger lander tykt og tæt.

Britiske og EU-data udgives denne uge på bagkant af sidste måneds rapporter, som indikerede at væksten aftager for disse vigtige økonomier.

Lad os starte med UK. IHS Markit flash-komposittet for september indikerede at output var faldet til det laveste niveau siden februar. Her faldt UK til en score på 54,1 den måned, ift. 54,8 i august.

Genopretningen lader til at være gået i stå, her på vej ind i vintermånederne. Lavere økonomisk aktivitet kombineret med højere inflation vil ikke skabe de mest positive udfald for Storbritanniens økonomi i fremtiden.

PMI for servicesektoren faldt til 54,6 i september fra 55,0 i august – det laveste niveau siden februar, hvor landet stadig var nedlukket. For produktionsvirksomhederne så vi et fald på 60,3 til 56,4, igen det laveste siden februar.

Det er det samme på den anden side af Kanalen. Europæisk vækst blev stynet af begrænsninger på udbudssiden, som skubbede inputomkostningerne til et 20-års højdepunkt i hele EU sidste måned. Vil denne måneds PMI-data vise det samme?

Som score, viste IHS komposit-aflæsningen at økonomisk vækst var faldet til et fem-måneds lavdepunkt i september. EU scorede i denne måned 56,1, sammenlignet med 59,0 i august.

Dette var et stykke under markedets forecast. En rundspørge fra Reuters indikerede at økonomer og analytikere forventede et fald i udbuddet, men med den lavere sats 58,5.

Forsnævrede forsyningskæder og et generelt fald i BNP-tilvæksten lader til at være hovedfaktorerne her. EUs økonomi nærmer sig samme størrelse som før epidemien, så en afmatning var altid i sigte, bare ikke en, der var så drastisk.

Jeg forventer at se et lavere PMI-print for EU på fredag når de nyeste data lander.

Wall Street indtjening bliver ved med at komme – og nu til tech-aktierne

I næste uge vil vi være lige midt i indtjeningssæsonen for Q3. Store banker, herunder Goldman Sachs, Citigroup og JPMorgan sparkede tingene i gang i sidste uge. Nu er det tiden, hvor de techgiganterne deler deres seneste finansielle data.

Netflix og Tesla er de to hovednavne i denne uge. Begge kom de med stærke tal i Q1 og Q2, men de har meldt ud at performance kan begynde at falde i 2021’s tredje kvartal.

For mere information om hvilke virksomheder kommer med rapporter hvornår, så tjek vores kalender med indtjeningsrapporter fra USA denne sæson.

Vigtige økonomiske data

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Asset  Event 
Mon 18-Oct  3:00am  CNY  GDP q/y 
  3:00am  CNY  Retail Sales y/y 
  2:15pm  USD  Industrial Production m/m 
  3:30pm  CAD  BOC Business Outlook Survey 
Tue 19-Oct   1:30am  AUD  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
       
Wed 20-Oct  7:00am  GBP  CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  CPI m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Common CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Median CPI y/y 
  1:30pm  CAD  Trimmed CPI y/y 
  3:30pm  USD  Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu 21-Oct  1:30pm  USD  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
       
Fri 22-Oct  7:00am  GBP  Retail Sales m/m 
  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8:15am  EUR  French Flash Services PMI 
  8:30am  EUR  German Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  8:30am  EUR  German Flash Services PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9:00am  EUR  Flash Services PMI 
  9:30am  GBP  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  9:30am  GBP  Flash Services PMI 
  1:30pm  CAD  Core Retail Sales m/m 
  1:30pm  CAD  Retail Sales m/m 
  2:45pm  USD  Flash Manufacturing PMI 
  2:45pm  USD  Flash Services PMI 
  Tentative  USD  Treasury Currency Report 

 

Opdateret indtjening

Tue 19 Oct  Wed 20 Oct  Thu 21 Oct  Fri 22 Oct 
Philip Morris International (PM)   Verizon Communications Inc (VZ)   AT&T (T)   American Express (AXP)  
       
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)   International Business Machines (IBM)  Intel Corp (INTC)   Schlumberger Ltd (SLB)  
       
Procter & Gamble (PG)  Tesla Inc (TSLA)   Snap Inc A (SNAP)    
       
Netflix Inc (NFLX)        

 

Monthly recap: German elections, hot UK inflation and NFP miss

We recap some of the key market movers from September in this monthly round-up. 

Monthly markets recap: September 2021

Germany waves goodbye to Angela Merkel in tight federal elections 

After sixteen years at the helm, Angela Merkel will step down as German Chancellor following late September’s closely contested German elections. 

It’s a hugely fragmented result. Pretty much all parties did worse than they thought. The SPD is the majority party, but they’re still very close to the CDU to really have a massive advantage. You could only separate them with a cigarette paper really.  

The Green’s, after topping the polls four months ago, came in third while the FDP came in fourth.  

Olaf Scholtz, the leader of the SPD, now has his work cut out trying to turn these close results into a working coalition. But what we’ve seen is what our political guru and Blonde Money CEO Helen Thomas calls a Code Red for Germany – that is a shift to the left with a bit of a green hint too. 

What the next German federal government looks like now is up for debate. The Green Party is probably going to be central, after doubling their Reichstag presence, but it’s out of the CDU and FDP to see who becomes the third coalition partner. See Helen Thomas’ election round-up below for more information. 

Nonfarm payrolls’ massive miss 

Nonfarm payrolls came in well below expectations in a wobbly US jobs report.  

In August, 275,000 new jobs were added to the US economy, falling far below the 750,000 forecast. 

The unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% while labour force participation stayed unchanged at 61.7%. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% in August, surpassing market predictions of a 0.3% rise. 

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on the jobs report. Labour market participation has been one of the key metrics the Fed has been looking at throughout the pandemic to decide on whether to start tapering economic support. 

We know that Jerome Powell and the Fed loves a strong jobs report. But we also know that tapering is on its way anyway – likely in November. August’s job data may not have impacted decision making too much, given the tapering signals were made long before its release.  

However, Fed Chair Powell still believes the US is still far from where he’d comfortably like employment to be. 

Speaking last week, Powell said: “What I said last week was that we had all but met the test for tapering. I made it clear that we are, in my view, a long way from meeting the test for maximum employment.” 

A recent survey taken by the National Association for Business Economics showed 67% of participating economists believed job levels won’t reach pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022. 

UK inflation jumps 

August’s CPI data, released in September, showed UK inflation had reached 3.2%. That’s the highest level since 2012. 

Rising from 2% in July, the latest CPI print also showed a huge month-on-month rise in prices. Inflation soared well clear of the Bank of England’s 2% target – although the UK central bank did say it believed inflation would hit 4% in 2021. 

However, some market observers believe there is a risk that inflation will overshoot even the 4% level. 

The question is how will the BoE respond? A more hawkish tilt could be possible.  

Markets.com Chief Markets Analyst Neil Wilson said: “Unanchored inflation expectations are the worst possible outcome for a central bank they’ve been too slow to recognise the pandemic has completely changed the disinflationary world of 2008-2020. 

“My own view, for what it’s worth, is that the Bank, just like the Fed, has allowed inflation overshoots to allow for the recovery, but it’s been too slow and too generous. Much like the response to the pandemic itself, the medicine (QE, ZIRP) being administered may be doing more harm (inflation) than good (growth, jobs).” 

China intensifies its crypto crackdown 

Bitcoin was rocked towards the end of September after being hit with a body blow landed by the People’s Bank of China. 

The POBC has ruled that all cryptocurrency transactions in China are illegal. That includes all transactions made by Chinese citizens domestically and those coming from offshore and overseas exchanges. 

BTC lost over 8% and nearly dropped below the $40,000 mark on the news from Beijing. It has subsequently staged a comeback, but this latest move from China tells us a couple of important things about crypto. 

Number one: volatility is ridiculous. The fact that Bitcoin is still so susceptible to big swings on both positive and negative news shows it’s still very volatile. It seems hard to see a future driven by crypto right now if such price swings will be the norm. If this is the case, let’s hope it calms down in the future. 

Secondly, it’s that central banks are still wary of digital finance. In China’s case, it loves control.  

Beijing’s official stance is that cryptocurrency is a) illegitimate, b) an environmental disaster, and c) something it cannot control completely. Freeing finances from government oversight is the entire point of decentralised finance (DeFi) after all. In a country as centralised as China, that’s a no-go.  

China has pledged to step up its anti-crypto, anti-mining efforts further. This could cause major ripples for Bitcoin and the digital finance sector as a whole. A significant chunk of global token supply comes from Chinese miners. Someone else will have to pick up the slack. 

Oil & gas prices stage major rally 

A global gas shortage and tighter oil supplies pushed prices into overdrive towards the end of September. 

Natural gas, in particular, was flourishing. At one point, gas had climbed above $6.30, reaching highs not seen for three years. Basically, there’s not enough gas to go around. High demand from the UK and EU is pushing prices up, while the US, which is meant to be in injection season, is also suffering. Asian demand is also intensifying. 

In terms of oil, a supply squeeze coupled with higher demand caused by major economies reopening is putting a support under oil prices.  

Traders are also confident. Energy markets are the place to be right now. As such, trader activity appears to be pushing these new highs and is confident regarding the market’s overall strength. 

Goldman Sachs has also revised its oil price targets upwards. 

Goldman said: “While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts. 

“The current oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts.” 

Week Ahead: Fed meeting to assess inflation landscape

With the G7 event in Cornwall wrapping up on Sunday, the Federal Reserve meeting is the big event in the markets this week, whilst traders will also be keeping a close watch on high frequency data such as unemployment claims, retail sales and manufacturing indices from the US. Meanwhile UK inflation data will be assessed for any signs of pressures building in prices that could nudge the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy earlier than thought. 

FOMC 

Wednesday’s statement from the Federal Reserve is not expected to feature any fireworks, but it is an important meeting as it will offer clues about the reaction function of the central bank to rising inflation fears. We know the Fed is happy to let inflation run a little hot over the summer as it pins everything on its employment mandate. So, labour market data is arguably more important than inflation numbers right now. On that front the last NFP jobs report was something of a Goldilocks number – not too hot to worry about an early taper of the Fed’s $120bn-a-month bond buying programme, but not so cool as to fret about the recovery. The truth is the Fed is looking at both and this meeting comes at a time of great uncertainty over whether inflation will indeed prove to be as transitory as policymakers believe. 

Minutes from the FOMC meeting in April had the Fed floating a trial balloon, as these indicated some policymakers are thinking about thinking about tapering asset purchases. “A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases,” the minutes said. Members of the FOMC also stressed the importance of “clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of asset purchases”. Tentative – the question remains: when does the Fed think it’s hit the landing area for the economy, and does inflation take off in the meantime? This week’s meeting is not expected to deliver any surprises – the jobs numbers are positive right now but the labour market is some way off the Fed’s goal, whilst the inflation story is fairly well understood for now.

US economic data 

There is also going to focus on a batch of important high frequency data out of the US, including retail sales for May, producer price inflation and manufacturing indices for the New York and Philadelphia regions. Expectations for retail sales are heating up – last week the National Retail Federation raised its growth expectations for US retail sales in 2021 to between 10.5% and 13.5%. May should show a pick-up in sales after unexpectedly stalling in April as the boost from stimulus cheques faded. An acceleration is expected in the coming months thanks to a huge savings glut and the rapid reopening of the economy. 

UK inflation 

The Bank of England does not think inflation will run away, so Wednesday morning’s CPI print will be closely watched by GBP traders. Although it significantly upgraded its near-term economic forecasts and announced a form of ‘technical’ taper’ of bond purchases at its last meeting, the Bank’s outlook on inflation suggests it will be in no rush to raise rates this year. This is acting as a headwind for sterling – an above-forecast reading could be a tailwind. 

 

Major economic data 

Date  Time (GMT+1)  Event 
Jun 14th  10:00  EZ industrial production 
Jun 15th  07:00  UK unemployment  
  13:30  US retail sales, PPI, Empire State manufacturing index 
  14:15  US industrial production 
Jun 16th  03:00  China industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment  
  07:00  UK CPI inflation 
  13:30  Canada CPI inflation 
  15:30  US crude oil inventories 
  19:00  FOMC statement 
  19:30  FOMC press conference 
 Jun 17th  02:30  Australia unemployment 
  08:30  Swiss National Bank statement 
  10:00  EZ final CPI inflation 
  13:30  US unemployment claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index 
Jun 18th  tentative  Bank of Japan statement 

 

Key earnings data 

Date  Company  Event 
Jun 15th  Oracle Corp.  Q4 2022 Earnings 
  On The Beach  Interims 
Jun 17th  Adobe Inc.  Q2 2021 Earnings 
  Whitbread  Trading Update 
  Halfords  Finals 

 

CySEC (EU)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • FSCS investorgaranti op til 20.000 EUR
  • 1.000.000 EUR forsikringsdækning**
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo

Produkt

  • CFD
  • Aktiehandel
  • Quantranks

Markets.com drives af SafeCap Investments Limited (”Safecap”). Reguleret af CySEC under licensnr. 092/08 og FSCA under licensnr. 43906.

FSC (GLOBAL)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • Elektronisk verifikation
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo
  • 1.000.000 USD forsikringsdækning**

Produkt

  • CFD
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com drives af Finalto (BVI) Limited ("Finalto BVI”) Reguleret af BVI Financial Services Commission ("FSC") under licens nr. SIBA/L/14/1067.

FCA (UK)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • FSCS investorgaranti op til 85.000 GBP *afhængigt af kriterier og berettigelse
  • 1.000.000 GBP forsikringsdækning**
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo

Produkt

  • CFD
  • Spread Bets
  • Strategy Builder

Markets.com drives af Finalto Trading Limited Reguleret af Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) under licensnr. 607305.

ASIC (AU)

  • Kundemidler holdes i adskilte bankkonti
  • Elektronisk verifikation
  • Beskyttelse mod negativ saldo
  • 1.000.000 USD forsikringsdækning**

Produkt

  • CFD

Markets.com drives af Finalto (Australia) Pty Limited Er indehaver af Australian Financial Services licens nr. 424008 og reguleres med hensyn til leveringen af finansielle tjenester af Australian Securities and Investments Commission ("ASIC”).

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** Der gælder vilkår og betingelser.Se policen i sin helhed for yderligere oplysninger.

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