عقود الفروقات هي أدوات مالية معقدة، وتنطوي على مخاطر عالية لخسارة الأموال بشكل سريع بسبب الرافعة المالية. 67% من حسابات مستثمري التجزئة يخسرون الأموال عند تداول عقود الفروقات مع هذا المزود. عليك الأخذ بعين الاعتبار ما إذا كنت تفهم طريقة عمل عقود الفروقات، وما إذا كان بوسعك تحمل المخاطر العالية لخسارة أموالك.
Deliveroo shares climb, UK equities catch a bid
Deliveroo shares edged higher at the start of unrestricted trading as investors shrugged off the stock’s dreadful start to life as a public company. There were fears the 70,000 retail customers who had participated in the float would take the opportunity to offload, but investors are holding the line for the time being. Having tumbled 26% on day one, the first day of unrestricted trading saw the stock climb 3% to £2.88. I’m not sure if this is a vote of confidence or a case of averaging in, but it’s no doubt a big relief to management and the bankers involved that the retail army has not routed at the first sound of gunfire. Given the wipe-out that has already taken place, I think a lot of investors will simply think that it cannot go any lower and it’s worth holding on for a better price. Cutting losers is harder than letting winners run. It comes as hundreds of Deliveroo riders prepare to strike over pay and conditions. The walkout underlines the regulatory risk attached to the stock and the implied impact any Uber-like ruling could have on margins.
European stock markets are tentatively higher after a flat session on Wall Street, with the major US indices pulling back slightly from record highs. UK equities are leading the way this morning: The FTSE 100 rose 0.9% in the early part of the session to trade at its highest since the start of the year – 6,900 looks to be on. I’d still be confident that the discount in UK equities combined with a solid domestic and global outlook supports the investment thesis and the blue chips could be eyeing a pre-pandemic 7,700 by the end of the year. The FTSE 250 rose another 0.6% to trade above 22,129 and mark a new record intraday high. The mid-cap index is now up 8% since the start of the year and is on track to reflect the UK’s economic bounce back from the pandemic. UK domestic stocks have been buoyed by the rapid rollout of vaccines – Moderna starts this week, adding to the positivity – and the implied resurgence in economic activity. And as I pointed out in my preview to 2021, UK equities were set to catch up as they entered 2021 trading at a large discount to European and US peers, but have yet to really achieve their full potential.
FOMC minutes tonight will be one to watch. The minutes could help explain how the Fed plans to communicate future policy decisions and shed light on how some policymakers could change their view on monetary policy if inflation and growth does accelerate as expected this summer. Whilst Jay Powell has kept market speculation at bay, the minutes could allow participants to focus on when the Fed will tighten. As detailed after the meeting statement, it looks as though the Fed is happy to let the economy run hot and won’t intervene to cool it down. Even with growth in excess of 6.5% this year, 3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023; it still sees no need to tighten policy within the next almost three years. This reflects what we know already about the Fed’s view on employment and inflation and the new outcome-based regime focused on absolute employment levels, not on the Philip’s Curve. It also doesn’t really think the sharp bounce back this year is sustainable, meaning now is not the time to remove the punchbowl. US 10-year yields have retreated to under 1.64% – given the pullback from the recent highs there is a risk the market sees something in the minutes which signals it could tighten policy sooner than it is currently guiding.
Crude oil tried to pick up yesterday as the IMF raised its global growth forecasts and the API said inventories declined by 2.6m barrels last week. But the market remains sceptical for the time being about the demand recovery that OPEC is expecting and has used to justify pumping more barrels from May. OPEC+ have really taken a gamble on oil demand bouncing back this summer. The decision by the cartel and its allies to ease self-imposed production curbs helped push prices sharply lower on Monday but a softer dollar and stronger US and Chinese economic data, combined with the IMF forecasts, had eased the selling pressure yesterday. WTI bounced off lows a little under $58, though short of the key support at $57.40, but the rally fizzled at the $61 resistance. EIA figures today are expected to show a decline of 2m barrels. Last week’s inventory data showed American refiners processed the most oil since the start of the pandemic as US travel markers improve.
Week Ahead: OPEC meets & FOMC releases minutes
In our first week ahead of the year, we’re checking out some particularly meaty topics. OPEC+ begins the first of this year’s new monthly ministerial meetings on Jan 4th as producers discuss gradually unwinding production cuts.
The FOMC releases its latest meeting minutes – will they be a roadmap for US economic recovery? Plus, US nonfarm payrolls are released, which could show signs of strength in the United States’ job market.
The first of a new series of monthly meetings of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers kicks of this week, following on from December’s decision to delay the process of tapering production cuts agreed last year to prop up prices.
This is the month where OPEC members plus allies will ease the stoppers slightly and increase production. OPEC+ has given the greenlight to pump an extra 500,000bpd from January until at least March. The total production cut for January will be 7.2m bpd compared to the 7.7m bpd cut in the latter part of 2020.
However, demand expectations have failed to improve despite vaccines so pressure will remain on OPEC to monitor the situation closely. OPEC now expects global oil demand to have fallen to 9.77 million barrels per day in 2020 to reach 89.99m bpd, compared to over 90m bpd in its November estimations.
2021 oil demand is now forecast at 95.89m bpd. That’s down 410,000 from the original OPEC projections published in the November MOMR. In October, OPEC had estimated 2021 oil demand to be 96.8m bpd.
One key aspect of balancing price vs demand vs production will be member and ally compliance. There has already been a bit of dissention within the ranks, with likes of Saudi Arabia considering giving up its chairman position, for instance. Some producers within OPEC’s sphere of influence are steadfastly sticking to their own production targets, regardless of limits and stops.
Libya has voiced its plans to increase its oil production and has previously stated that it will not accept any production quota until such a point where it can reliably produce 1.7 million bpd—compared to its current 1.108 million bpd.
Iran, too, has promised to increase its oil production to 2.3 million bpd in 2021, up from 1.986 million bpd now.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Minutes from the latest Fed meeting are on tap – giving a clearer indication of possible dissension over the extent to which the FOMC feels it needs to anchor long-term rates and whether further policy support is required. The question for the Fed is starting to pivot towards the reflation trade and rising long-term rates.
Rising inflation expectations may be a problem for the Fed as it could force it into tightening sooner than previously expected. Whilst average inflation targeting gives it some leeway, we’ll be paying close to attention to whether individual policymakers are starting to fret over inflation and the need for more restraint in monetary policy.
The December jobs report caps off the week on Friday with surging Covid cases in the US likely to weigh on demand, albeit seasonal hiring will be a factor to consider. In November, a further 245,000 jobs were added to the US economy, whilst the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7%. This was well below the run rate of the last 6 months and indicated a slowing in hiring as case counts rose across the country.
However, markets seem to be largely happy to overlook a softer pace of recovery in the jobs market though thanks to vaccines – December‘s report is backwards-looking and will reflect surging case numbers and new lockdown restrictions across multiple states. Moreover, soft jobs numbers only underline the need for sustained monetary and fiscal stimulus – we’re in a bad news is good news phase.
Voters will go to the polls for the Georgia Runoffs on January 5th in an election that will decide control of the Senate for the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency.
This will be exceptionally important, as a Blue Senate should mean easier passage of Biden’s agenda, which is pointed towards green energy and investment. However, the chances of a slim Republican majority seem pretty good, despite November’s slim Democrat victory in the presidential elections, which would mean less regulatory and tax overhang.
Outlook 2021 webinar
Tuesday 5th January, 12.00 GMT
Want to know what the key market topics will be in the new year? We’re asking the big questions with this webinar: Will inflation be the dog that finally barks? Will the UK stock market finally catch up? Will vaccines spur a reflationary return to normal environment? Join chief market analyst Neil Wilson to get the answers to the big questions in our 2021 Outlook.
Major economic data
|Mon Jan 4th||9.00am||EUR||Final Manufacturing PMI|
|9.30am||GBP||Final Manufacturing PMI|
|All Day||All||OPEC-JMMC Meeting|
|3.00pm||USD||ISM Manufacturing PMI|
|Tue Jan 5th||9.30am||GBP||Construction PMI|
|Wed Jan 6th||9.00am||EUR||Final Services PMI|
|9.30am||GBP||Final Services PMI|
|1.15pm||USD||ADP Nonfarm Employment Change|
|3.00pm||USD||ISM Services PMI|
|3.30pm||USD||US Crude Oil Inventories|
|7.00pm||USD||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|Thu Jan 7th||10.00am||EUR||CPI Flash Estimate|
|10.00am||EUR||Core CPI Flash Estimate|
|3.30pm||USD||US Natural Gas Inventories|
|Fri Jan 8th||1.30am||CNH||CPI y/y|
|1.30pm||USD||Average Hourly Earnings m/m|
|1.30pm||USD||Nonfarm Employment Change|
Key earnings data
|Mon Jan 4th||State Street Corp.||Q4 2021 Earnings|
|Wed Jan 6th||RPM International||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Thu Jan 7th||Micron Technology||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Constellation Brands||Q3 2021 Earnings|
|Walgreens Boots Alliance||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|ConAgra Foods||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Lamb Weston Holdings||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Fri Jan 8th||Tata Consultancy Services||Q3 2021 Earnings|
Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs
We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked.
We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about.
Japan Q1 GDP estimate
Preliminary Q1 GDP data for Japan is due early on Monday, but as with all Q1 growth data it will serve as the prelude to something much worse. The economy is expected to have contracted -1.2% on the quarter, after a -1.8% decline in the final three months of 2019. Annualised growth is expected to print at -4.6%, again a slowdown from the -7.1% drop recorded in 2019 Q4.
Forecasts for Q2 expect a 22% decline, the worst since the end of the Second World War. Will the Q1 figures give us any indication of how accurate those estimates might be, or will markets ignore the data and wait for more clarity?
How many UK jobs have been lost in lockdown?
The UK reports jobless claims data for April, when the workforce suffered an entire month of lockdown. The number of people filing jobless claims grew by over 12,000 in March: April’s figure is likely to print around 650,000. Unemployment rate figures are also scheduled, but these cover March and so are extremely backwards-looking by this point. A little later on Tuesday morning, the Labour Productivity Index for the first quarter is expected to print at -2.6%.
UK inflation set to collapse
April UK inflation data will feel the impact of collapsing retail sales, shuttered businesses, climbing unemployment and furloughed workers. Annualised price growth is expected to slump from 1.5% in May to 0.2% last month, with prices predicted to shrink -0.7% on the month after stagnating in April. The core inflation rate is predicted to drop to 1% on an annualised basis and -0.3% on the month. The contraction in producer prices is predicted to have accelerated to -3.9% on the year, and to have doubled to -0.4% on the month.
High hopes for Walmart, Home Depot earnings
Markets think Walmart and Home Depot are well-positioned to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Both stocks are over 4% higher year-to-date at the time of writing, compared to a -13% drop for the S&P 500. Walmart actually hit record highs at the end of April.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Walmart saw a 20% increase in sales during March alone. Markets clearly expect a lot from the leading retailers, but can Walmart and Home Depot deliver?
Both Walmart and Home Depot have “Strong Buy” ratings according to our Analyst Recommendations tool. Walmart has an average price target of $132.79 which represents a 7% upside on prices at the time of writing. Home Depot has a target price of $238.15, a 4% upside.
FOMC meeting minutes
We already know a lot more about the current thinking of the Federal Reserve thanks to last week’s speech from chair Jerome Powell. The minutes of the meeting at the end of April could be moot: Powell’s speech gave away what would likely have been the headlines from the minutes, namely that it was likely more stimulus would be necessary, but negative interest rates are not something being considered at this time.
Eurozone economic sentiment set to go negative again
April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany unexpectedly leapt back into positive territory. Assessment of current conditions remained dire, but investors began to focus on recovery.
But the reality of the recession that lies between where we are now and where we’re trying to get back to is expected to hit sentiment hard again this month, with the German reading forecast to plummet back to -14 and the Eurozone wide reading dropping to -10.
UK PMIs headed lower, Eurozone set to bounce off lows
This week we get the flash PMI readings for May. UK manufacturing is expected to drop to 26.6, while the services index will slip to 9. The overall composite PMI is expected to drop from 13.8 to 9.2.
Manufacturing and services in the Eurozone and its member states, however, are expected to rebound from their lows as economies began relaxing lockdown measures. Germany’s manufacturing index is predicted to jump around 10 points to 45, while services is forecast to more than double to 37 points. Overall the composite index is expected to climb from 17.4 to 40. The Eurozone composite is expected to rise from 13.6 to 34.
It’s worth remembering that these figures still represent a huge rate of contraction across all areas of the economy. The Eurozone economy may have bounced back from the initial shock of COVID-19, but there is still a long road ahead – and expectations for how long are getting bigger all the time.
Heads-Up on Earnings
The following companies are set to publish their quarterly earnings reports this week:
|18-May||Ryanair – FY 2020|
|Pre-Market||19-May||Walmart – Q1 2021|
|Pre-Market||19-May||Home Depot – Q1 2020|
|19-May||Imperial Brands – Q2 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Lowe’s – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Target Corp – Q1 2020|
|Pre-Market||20-May||Analog Devices – Q2 2020|
|20-May||Experian – FY 2020|
|Pre-Market||21-May||Medtronic – Q4 2020|
|Pre-Market||21-May||Best Buy – Q1 2021|
|After-Market||21-May||Intuit – Q3 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Ross Stores – Q1 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Agilent Technologies – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||Hewlett Packard Enterprise – Q2 2020|
|After-Market||21-May||NVIDIA – Q1 2021|
|22-May||Deere & Co – Q2 2020|
Highlights on XRay this Week
|17.00 UTC||18-May||Blonde Markets|
|18.00 UTC||18-May||The Ten Rules of Trading|
|15.30 UTC||19-May||Weekly Gold Forecast|
|18.00 UTC||19-May||Reading Candlestick Charts: Trading Patterns and Trends|
|11.00 UTC||20-May||Midweek Lunch Wrap|
Key Economic Events
Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week:
|23.50 UTC||17-May||Japan Preliminary Quarterly GDP|
|01.30 UTC||19-May||RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|06.00 UTC||19-May||UK Claimant Count Change / Unemployment Rate|
|09.00 UTC||19-May||Germany / Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment|
|06.00 UTC||20-May||UK Inflation|
|12.30 UTC||20-May||Canada Inflation|
|14.30 UTC||20-May||US EIA Crude Oil Inventories|
|18.00 UTC||20-May||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|07.15 – 08.00 UTC||21-May||FR, DE, Eurozone Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs|
|08.30 UTC||21-May||UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs|
|12.30 UTC||21-May||US Jobless Claims|
|13.45 UTC||21-May||US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs|
|22.45 UTC||21-May||New Zealand Quarterly Retail Sales|
|06.00 UTC||22-May||UK Retail Sales|
|12.30 UTC||22-May||Canada Core Retail Sales|