Earnings season: Airbnb’s 300% revenue jump

Airbnb is the latest big tech firm to record a Wall Street-beating quarter but see its share price drop.

Airbnb earnings

Airbnb’s headline stats

With revenues totalling $1.34bn in Q2 2021, Airbnb notched up a 300% year-on-year increase. This flew over Wall Street expectations.

Sales were up 175% y-o-y this quarter for a total of $175m. Gross booking value, the key metric Airbnb uses to track host earnings, incorporating taxes and cleaning and service fees, clocked in at $13.4bn. In year-on-year terms, that’s a 320% increase.

83.1 million nights were booked using Airbnb in Q2 2021, measuring 29% growth against the first quarter, and 197% over Q2 2020 when the world entered lockdown. Analysts expected 79.2m nights booked, so again this was another beat.

The key takeaways from Airbnb’s latest earnings report are:

  • Revenues – $1.34bn against $1.26bn estimated
  • Earnings – -$0.11 per share

While a lot of the main measuring metrics were smashing Wall Street estimates, Airbnb shareholders would have lost money, according to these statistics.

That’s fairly odd, given the fact that Airbnb’s net loss has narrowed, falling from $575.6m to $68m. Everything suggests Airbnb is moving in the right direction – but there is still a huge, COVID-19 shaped shadow looming over the rest of the holiday app’s year.

Airbnb stock price

Airbnb shares slid 4% upon publishing its earnings reports. EPS is down too as seen above.

That means it joins other tech stocks like Apple and Tesla posting bumper quarterly results but seeing their share prices dip.

In a letter to investors, the app’s executives stated Airbnb is bracing for Delta variant volatility. Cases continue to rise in the US and around the wider world, meaning travel restrictions and limits on overnight stays could very well make a return.

If that was the case, then stays and revenues may slide in Q3 and Q4.

The company said that although it expects the third quarter to deliver its strongest quarterly revenue on record, it expects Q3 nights and experiences booked to be below that of Q2 and Q3 2019.

“As we exit Q2 and come into Q3, we have a combination of fewer bookings for the fall, just given the nature of some of the seasonality, and any kind of impact potentially on Covid concerns,” Airbnb CFO Dave Stephenson said on a call with analysts.

Vaccination progress and containment of new COVID-19 variants will be key to Airbnb’s sustainability. Summer is also drawing to a close. New bookings in the Autumn and Winter, not the busiest times of the year for holiday-related businesses, have already started to slip as Dave Stephenson points out.

It’s going to be a long six months for Airbnb.

Stocks nudge higher, Fed remains relaxed about inflation

Stocks are higher, recovering some ground lost during a choppy week. Fed officials have been out in force to calm inflation nerves. Governor Christopher Waller said rates will not rise until policymakers see inflation above target for a long time or there is excessively high inflation, saying the Fed will need to see several more months of data. He also stressed that there is only a temporary ‘mismatch’ between surging demand for workers and people’s willingness/ability to get a job. Meanwhile businesses across the US are struggling to find labour: McDonald’s is the latest company to increase pay, raising wages by 10% at its US company-owned restaurants as it seeks to take 10,000 new staff over the next three months. Wage push inflation is of greater concern than short-term supply chain pressures and rising commodity prices. The labour market is far tighter than it looks – the Fed will hope that things change quickly once Federal assistance rolls off later in the year. That could see us endure a rough summer of hot inflation readings, with the Fed looking on and hoping it comes to an end in the autumn.

Another inflation gauge delivered a hot reading. US produce price index inflation rose 6.2% year-on-year, the biggest hike in prices over a 12-month period since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began measurements in 2010. Markets were a good deal calmer despite the figures, with Treasury yields easing of the 1.7% area, the highest in a month. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both rallied more than 1%, whilst NDX rose over 100pts to make a decent fist of recovering the 100-day SMA, though it fell short and closed off the highs of the day.

European stock markets are broadly higher this morning, taking the positive cue from the US and a strong session in Asia. The FTSE 100 has recovered 7,000 following yesterday’s firm rejection of the area under 6,900. The UK blue chips closed a full 140pts off the lows on Thursday. This morning miners are notably weaker as iron ore prices fell in China, leaving basic materials the only sector in the red, while tech, utilities and consumer cyclicals lead the way higher. BT rallied 3% whilst Sage advanced by the same margin as it reported strong half-year results and said full-year revenues would be at the top end of guidance.

Airbnb shares fell 3% and extended the decline in after-hours trade as the company reported a net loss of $1.95 per share in the first quarter. But revenues were up 5%, beating analyst expectations, and gross booking value was up over 52% year-on-year to more than $10.3bn. Cancellation rates are still higher than in 2019. Chief executive Brian Chesky was bullish on the outlook and a change in the way people approach travel. Shares are down about 37% from the February peaks. Meanwhile shares in Disney declined 4% in the after-hours market as it missed on subscriber growth to its streaming service. Disney+ now has 103.6m subscribers; analysts had estimated 109m. The streaming service has been the big plus point over the last year as parks and cruises have been shuttered, so investors are disappointed that growth in this area is not as strong as they expected.

The dollar is a little on the defensive as the cooling in Treasury yields cools the heels of the bulls. Gold is higher, reclaiming the 38.2% retracement area. Higher interest rates tend to be bad for gold, but rising inflation is good, so the market is in a bit of a tussle to see where real rates are going. With the Fed still seen keeping its thumb firmly pressed on shorter-dated yields, rising inflation expectations would tend to support the bull case for gold. Looking ahead to today’s data, watch for US retail sales at 13:30 BST, expected at +1% on the headline reading and +0.5% for the core.

الأسبوع المقبل: ثقة مهتزة للمستهلك الأمريكي بينما تؤثر العوائد المرتفعة على الأسواق

بالتطلع إلى الأسبوع المقبل نرى ثقة المستهلك الأمريكي على أرض مهتزة، بالرغم من أن المزيد من التحفيز يأتي قريبًا. يحتمل أيضًا أن يكون للعوائد المرتفعة تداعيات كبيرة على الأسواق. وفي موضع أخر، يبدو كما لو أن الاقتصاد النيوزيلاندي يكتسب قوة قبل بيان فائدة بنك الاحتياطي النيوزيلاندي، بينما تقود Airbnb تقارير كبرى الشركات في الأسبوع القادم مع أول إعلان أرباح لها كشركة مطروحة للتداول العام.

ثقة المستهلك الأمريكي لا تبدو واثقة للغاية

قبل صدور أرقام ثقة المستهلك الأمريكي الرسمية في الأسبوع القادم، يبدو حتى الآن أن مزاج المستهلك قد هبط في شهر فبراير.

كشفت البيانات الأولية عن هبوط في مؤشر ثقة المستهلك من جامعة متشيغن من قراءة بلغت 79.0 في يناير إلى 76.2 في فبراير، مقابل إجماع حول 80.5-80.8.

يظهر أن الأسر المعيشية منخفضة الدخل، أي تلك التي يبلغ دخلها السنوي 75،000 دولار أو أقل، هي التي تدفع المزاج لأسفل. لم يقل سوى 23% من الأسر المعيشية في هذه المجموعة إن أمورهم المالية تحسنت منذ 2014، وقال 71% أنهم جنوا مكاسب في دخلهم.

المثير في الأمر هو أن ثقة المستهلك قد انخفضت مقابل الشهر الماضي، وفقًا لمدير الاستبيان ريتشارد كرتين، بالرغم من إعداد جو بايدن لأكبر باقات التحفيز بقيمة 1.9 تريليون دولار والإغاثة في طريقها للوصول، مما يضع 1،400 دولار لكل شخص بحد أدنى في جيوب المستهلكين الأمريكيين، بالإضافة إلى دعم إضافي للأعمال الصغيرة. حيث دُفع أيضًا 900 مليار دولار للأسر المعيشية الأدنى دخلًا في ديسمبر 2020.

الدعم في طريقه، لكن يبدو أن مزاج المستهلك في حالة ركود في الوقت الحالي.

المعدلات والأسهم تتفاعل مع العوائد المتزايدة

مع تصفية المعدلات، ارتفعت العوائد، مما قد يكون له تبعات على فئات الأصول كالفوركس والأسهم، وربما حتى العملات المشفرة.

في الثلاثاء الماضي، حظيت عوائد الخزانة بأكبر مكسب في 3 شهور. حيث ارتفعت سندات العشر سنوات 9 نقاط أساسية، لتصل إلى أعلى مستوى منذ فبراير بأعلى من 1.3%.

كما أشار كبير محللي السوق لدينا نيل ويلسون من قبل، هناك بعض العوامل الهامة التي تلعب دورًا هنا في خلق زخم تضخمي، وأبرزها:

  • تحفيز مالي كبير الحجم مساير للتقلبات المالية
  • سياسة نقدية فضفاضة للغاية
  • طلب مكبوت
  • وفرة في المدخرات

الأسهم الأوروبية تهبط، حيث تغذي المخاوف المتعلقة بمعدلات الفائدة تفكير المستثمرين مع سرعة التغير في العوائد المطلقة التي تأخذهم على حين غرة. ارتفع التضخم في المملكة المتحدة من 0.6% في ديسمبر إلى 0.7% في يناير، بسبب ارتفاع التكاليف، مثل تكاليف الأثاث والسلع المنزلية والمطاعم والفنادق والطعام والنقل.

ضَعف الذهب أيضًا بسبب العوائد الأعلى.

بصورة أساسية، فإن هذا الأمر ينبغي متابعته، حيث أن العوائد المرتفعة لها تداعيات على عالم الاستثمار والماليات بأكمله.

إعلان معدل فائدة بنك الاحتياطي النيوزيلاندي – لا تغيير على الجبهة النيوزيلاندية

يدلي بنك الاحتياطي النيوزيلاندي RBNZ ببيانه بشأن الفائدة الأسبوع القادم، وسط توقعات بعدم حدوث تغيرات كبرى على الفائدة.

لقد كان الاقتصاد النيوزيلاندي واحد من أقدر الاقتصادات على الصمود في عام الجائحة. حدَّت تدابير الغلق والتحكم في الحدود السريعة والقوية من الضرر الذي تسبب فيه كوفيد 19، وهو ما وضع نيوزيلندا في وضع اقتصادي أفضل من المتوقع.

حظي الدولار النيوزيلاندي NZD بعام رائع في 2020، حيث قطع خطوات هامة مقابل الجنيه الاسترليني، واليورو، والدولار الأمريكي، متفاعلًا بصورة جيدة مع اضطراب النصف الأول من العام، والذي اشتمل على بيع تصفية كبير.

من المتوقع الآن أن نيوزيلندا لن تكون في حاجة للمزيد من التحفيز. يعتقد المعلقون أيضًا أن بنك نيوزيلندا المركزي لن يطبق الفوائد السالبة.

لا تتوقع Australia New Zealand Banking Group، واحدة من أفضل المقرضين في البلد، أن يغير بنك الاحتياطي النيوزيلاندي معدل الفائدة، جزئيًا بسبب قوة الدولار النيوزيلاندي، لكن أيضًا بسبب أن سوق العمل في البلد في وضع جيد أيضًا.

هبط معدل العمال النيوزيلاندي إلى 4.9% في الفصل الماضي، بصورة غير متوقعة بعض الشيء، مع هبوط نقص استخدام العمالة في بعض القطاعات الأساسية أيضًا. يساعد التحفيز الحكومي في بعض مناطق الاقتصاد على تغطية العجز في مناطق أخرى، وهو نعمة للموظفين، ونعمة للعمال، ونعمة للاقتصاد بأكمله. بقيت الصادرات أيضًا داعمة.

بصورة أساسية، فإن تطلعات المدى القصير ما زالت جيدة في نيوزيلندا. يتوقع البعض أن يبدأ معدل النقد الرسمي في الارتفاع عام 2024. من المتوقع أن يرتفع التضخم إلى 2.5% قبل يونيو، لكنه قد يتقلص إلى 0.8% في العام التالي. دعنا نراقب نيوزيلندا عن كثب، لكن ليس من الحكمة توقع إصلاح ضخم في السياسة النقدية في بيان الأسبوع القادم.

أول تقارير أرباح Airbnb كشركة مطروحة للتداول العام

طُرحت Airbnb للتداول العام في ديسمبر 2020، وستعلن أرباحها للمرة الأولى على الإطلاق بصفتها شركة مطروحة للتداول العام يوم 25 فبراير.

بالطبع، يتعين النظر إلى أي أرباح من منظور الجائحة. وفق تسجيل S1 لشركة Airbnb، فإن أحجام الحجز الكلية لديها قد هبطت 39% عام-مقابل-عام في 2020، بإجمالي 18 مليار دولار، بينما هبطت العوائد بنسبة 32% بإجمالي 2.5 مليار دولار في 9 أشهر حتى سبتمبر 2020. ضرب الغلق الإجباري اقتصادات أساسية مثل الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد الأوروبي والمملكة المتحدة في أبريل 2020، وهو ما أوقف السفر الشخصي تمامًا.

لكن Airbnb تتمتع بتعرف هائل على علامتها التجارية، وهو ما قد يساعد أسهمها وعملها على الأداء بصورة أفضل من أقرانها. تبلغ قيمتها السوقية نحو 120 مليار دولار، وهذا يفوق منافسيها في مجال العطلات عبر الإنترنت مثل Expedia (22مليار دولار) وTripadvisor (5 مليار دولار) وحتى Booking.com (91 مليار دولار). بقيت الإدراجات مستقرة نسبيًا، فعلى سبيل المثال، لم تنخفض إلا 2% خلال الجائحة مع 5.6 مليون مسجلين في سبتمبر 2020 مقابل 5.7 مليون في ديسمبر 2019.

لم تنخفض الإقامات طويلة المدى (الحجوزات الأطول من 28 يومًا) إلا بنسبة 13% فقط، عام مقابل عام في أبريل 2020، وهو عادة أسوء شهور الحجوزات الفندقية، لكنها شهدت نموًا بين مايو وسبتمبر من ذلك العام.

قد تُبقي فرصة السوق المخططة التي تبلغ 3.2 تريليون دولار أنظار المستثمرين على Airbnb. وفق المعلقين، لدى Airbnb إمكانات قوية للغاية في عروضها الثالثة الأساسية:

  • 1.8 تريليون دولار – الإقامات قصيرة المدى
  • 210 مليار دولار – الإقامات طويلة المدى
  • 1.4 تريليون دولار – تجارب السفر

الأكثر من هذا أن Airbnb كان لديها 247 مليون ضيف في 2019، وهذا يمثل 3.8% من 6.5 مليار رحلة مبيت مدفوعة عالميًا في ذلك العام. إذا كان بمقدور Airbnb الحصول على 10% فقط من السوق المحتمل، فقد تصل إلى صافي مبيعات يبلغ 340 مليار دولار في السنة.

أقل ما يقال أن إعلان الأرباح هذا سيكون مشوقًا. سنتمكن من تسجيل تأثير الجائحة على Airbnb ورؤية ما إذا كانت مقوماتها قوية بما يكفي لتجاوز العاصفة.

قد تبدو التطلعات جيدة بالفعل. تبدو ثقة المستثمر مرتفعة. حيث ارتفعت أسهم Airbnb 200% بعد أن طُرحت للتداول العام، وبدءًا من 15 فبراير كانت تتداول حول مستواها القياسي.

أهم البيانات الاقتصادية لهذا الأسبوع 

Date  Time (GMT)  Currency  Event 
Tue Feb 23  3.00pm  USD  CB Consumer Confidence 
       
Wed Feb 24  1.00am  NZD  Official Cash Rate 
  1.00am  NZD  RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 
  1.00am  NZD  RBNZ Rate Statement 
  1.00am  NZD  RBNZ Press Conference 
  3.30pm  USD  US Crude Oil Inventories 
       
Thu Feb 25  1.30pm  USD  Prelim GDP Q/Q 
  3.30pm  USD  US Natural Gas Inventories 

 

أهم تقارير الأرباح لهذا الأسبوع 

Date  Company  Event 
Mon 22 Feb  Berkshire Hathaway  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Palo Alto Networks  Q2 2021 Earnings 
     
Tue 23 Feb  Home Depot  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Square  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  HSBC  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Thomson Reuters  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Wed 24 Feb  NVIDIA  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Lowe’s  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Royal Bank of Canada  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Budweiser  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  National Bank of Canada  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Puma  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Thu 25 Feb  Salesforce  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  Airbnb  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Vale  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Toronto-Dominion Bank  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Moderna  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Bayer  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Dell  Q4 2021 Earnings 
  HP  Q1 2021 Earnings 
  Etsy  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  Telefonica  Q4 2020 Earnings 
     
Fri 26 Feb  Deutsche Telekon  Q4 2020 Earnings 
  BASF  Q4 2020 Earnings 

IPO frenzy stateside, no-deal Brexit preparations ramp

Shares in Airbnb surged on debut, closing above $144 on their first day of trading after listing at $68. The more-than-doubling in the share price reflects huge investor interest, particularly in the retail space, as well as significant excess liquidity that is finding a home wherever it can. There is a strong fear of missing out on these mega IPOs, and investors seem very willing to discard usual valuation sensibilities to get on board. DoorDash only slipped by 1.8% on its second day of trading after soaring on its debut the day before. With a market cap of $68bn for Airbnb let’s just not talk about valuation and earnings multiples.

 

Preparedness for a no-deal Brexit is now the order of the day as both the EU and UK are talking impasse. Sunday’s deadline may be like all the rest (and be pointless) but there are only 3 weeks until January 1st so time really is running out. Sterling has been relatively unscathed so far but this morning GBPUSD broke down at the week lows at 1.32250 this morning to hit its weakest in almost a month. No deal risks are rising so the market is trying to price it – the problem is the binary nature of the outcome which leave the market only able to guess at fair value.

 

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) conformed to expectations by expanding its emergency asset purchase programme by an additional €500bn and extended the duration of the scheme to March 2022. Christine Lagarde suggested that the €1.85bn package would not be used fully used, which brought the ceiling vs target debate back into play. At the same time, EU leaders passed the €1.8tn budget after Hungary and Poland dropped their objections, paving the way for payments to be made next year. Meanwhile, US CPI inflation rose a little faster than expected in November and initial jobless claims were worse than expected, hitting 853k vs the 725k forecast. It points to weakness in the economy as cases have risen in recent weeks, eroding confidence in the recovery without a stimulus plan on hand to bridge the gap until vaccines are rolled out en masse.

 

European markets traded a little weaker early on Friday, with the major bourses down around 1% following on from a softer session on Wall Street that left the S&P 500 and Dow Jones lower but the Nasdaq rose a touch. No-deal Brexit fears are probably taking the shine off European equities, whilst there has been any significant catalyst from the US as lawmakers continue to discuss stimulus without getting a deal over the line. 

 

Chart: FTSE 100 lower, 6520 is the key support level 

FTSE 100 lower, 6520 is the key support level

Airbnb IPO date set for Dec 9th

Airbnb looks set to go ahead with its long-awaited IPO on Dec 9th, with the shares to begin trading on Dec 10th. The shares are expected to price at $44-$50 with the listing to raise around $2.5bn. Some 55m shares will be sold with a greenshoe option for 5m more if demand is high. The pricing would indicate a valuation of almost $30bn at the top of the range. 

It comes as DoorDash estimates that its IPO will price shares at $90-95, above the $75-$85 range set out only last week. The shares are expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “DASH.” 

November was a particularly strong month for US equities, with the Dow Jones notching its best month since 1987 and the Russell 2000 recording its best-ever month. Demand for equities remains strong but these IPOs will be an important gauge of exactly where investor sentiment lies heading into the Christmas period and the New Year. Big November rallies often leaves December a little soft, with the Santa Rally essentially being pulled forward. If Airbnb or DoorDash fail to fly it might signal some trouble under equity market bonnet. 

Airbnb financials 

The company generate a profit of $219 million in the third quarter of 2020, on $1.34 billion in revenue. This was down fractionally from the $227 million in profit during the same quarter last year, which was its only profitable quarter in 2019, coming on $1.65 billion in revenue. 

However, the onset of lockdowns due to the pandemic made for a very challenging first half of 2020 for Airbnb as it chalked up net losses of $916 million on revenue of $1.18 billion. The company, which plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ABNB, provided detailed customer and revenue figures.

You can read more on Airbnb financials in this post. 

Airbnb IPO coming this year: what you need to know

Airbnb is pressing ahead with its stock market listing with the company filing its S-1 form at the US Securities and Exchange Commission and a planned IPO date before the end of 2020. Will it be another unprofitable dog of a tech unicorn or a GOAT (Go Out And Travel) favourite in 2021?

The company reports it made a profit of $219 million in the third quarter, on $1.34 billion in revenue. In a filing on Monday, November 16th, management explained this was down fractionally from the $227 million in profit during the same quarter last year, which was its only profitable quarter in 2019, coming on $1.65 billion in revenue.

However, the onset of lockdowns due to the pandemic made for a very challenging first half of 2020 for Airbnb as it chalked up net losses of $916 million on revenue of $1.18 billion.

The company, which plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ABNB, provided detailed customer and revenue figures. Here’s a snapshot of the key metrics and financials.

Pandemic booking trends

Gross nights and experiences booked

  • Material contraction on a year-over-year basis, with a low in April 2020, down 72% year over year.
  • From April through June 2020, the company saw a steady rebound in gross nights and experiences booked before cancellations and alterations, which were down 21% in June relative to the same period in the prior year.
  • From July through September 2020, gross nights and experiences booked have been stable, down approximately 20% relative to the same period in the prior year.

Cancellations and alterations

  • Dramatic increase after the COVID-19 outbreak, as guests were either unable to travel or uncomfortable doing so.
  • While the number of nights and experiences cancelled in January 2020 was 13% of the gross nights and experiences booked that month, the number of nights and experiences cancelled in March and April 2020 exceeded the number of gross nights and experiences booked during those months.
  • From April to September 2020, cancellations and alterations as a percentage of gross nights and experiences booked initially declined significantly and then have remained relatively stable for the past several months.

Nights and Experiences Booked

  • Negative in March and April 2020.
  • By May 2020, gross nights and experiences booked had begun to recover, while cancellations and alterations began to fall, resulting in a return to positive Nights and Experiences Booked from May to September 2020.
  • From July through September 2020, Nights and Experiences Booked have been stable, down 28% relative to the same period in the prior year.
Monthly Nights & Experiences Booked Trends
2019 2020
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
In millions (except percentages)
Gross nights and experiences booked 30.5 28.3 28.4 38.3 32.8 19 8.7 16.4 26 28.3 26 23.9
 % YoY Change 31% 30% 35% 25% 17% -42% -72% -50% -21% -19% -21% -23%
(-) Cancellations and alterations 3.9 3.6 3.9 5 4.9 23.1 9.4 7.2 6.5 6.6 5.4 4.4
Cancellations and alterations as a % of gross nights and experiences booked 13% 13% 14% 13% 15% 122% 108% 44% 25% 23% 21% 18%
Nights and Experiences Booked* 26.6 24.7 24.5 33.9 27.9 -4.1 -0.7 9.2 19.5 21.7 20.6 19.5
 % YoY Change 31% 30% 35% 22% 12% -114% -103% -68% -31% -28% -28% -28%

Airbnb define Nights and Experiences Booked as net of cancellations and alterations.

Gross daily rate

  • Represents GBV per Night and Experiences Booked, all before cancellations and alterations. This measure is a useful proxy for the average daily rate (ADR) trend over this period; because the net metrics reflect elevated cancellations and were negative in March and April 2020, the net daily rate was not meaningful for those periods.
  • The year-over-year increase in gross daily rate from May to September 2020 was driven by faster recovery in North America and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) during this period, which have historically higher daily rates than Latin America and Asia Pacific.
  • The gross daily rate was also impacted by a mix shift toward entire home listings in non-urban destinations, which have higher daily rates.

Gross Booking Value before cancellations and alterations

  • Followed a similar trend to gross nights and experiences booked, materially declining on a year-over-year basis between March and May 2020.
  • GBV before cancellations and alterations recovered in June 2020, growing 1% year-over-year driven by the increase in gross daily rate.
  • From July through September 2020, GBV before cancellations and alterations has been stable, down less than 10% compared to the same periods in the prior year.

Gross Booking Value

  • Declined and rebounded as a result of the trends described above.
  • In September 2020, GBV was down 17% on a year-over-year basis, less than the 28% decline in Nights and Experiences Booked due to the growth in gross daily rate.
  • GBV reflects bookings made in a period for future nights or experiences and is a leading indicator for revenue, which is recognized during the period that stays and experiences occur.
Monthly Nights & Experiences Booked Trends
2019 2020
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
$ in billions (except percentages & gross daily rate)
Gross daily rate $110.20 $110.23 $110.36 $122.51 $122.63 $104.35 $91.69 $135.73 $145.72 $133.84 $132.24 $127.84
 % YoY Change -1% -1% 0% 0% 1% -12% -21% 18% 27% 19% 21% 18%
Gross Booking Value before cancellations and alterations 3.9 3.6 3.9 4.7 4 2 0.8 2.2 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.1
 % YoY Change 13% 13% 14% 26% 19% -49% -78% -41% 1% -4% -4% -9%
Gross booking Value 26.6 24.7 24.5 4.2 3.5 -0.9 -0.6 1.1 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5
 % YoY Change 31% 30% 35% 24% 15% -127% -119% -69% -17% -19% -14% -17%

Airbnb define Gross Booking Value as net cancellations and alterations.

Financials

Year Ended December 31st Nine Months Ended September 30
2017 2018 2019 2019 2020
In thousands (except share amounts)
Consolidated Statements of Operations Data
Revenue $ 2,561,721 2,651,985 4,085,239 2,698,239 2,518,935
Costs & expenses
Cost of Revenue 647,690 864,032 1,196,313 902,695 666,295
Operations & Support 395,739 609,202 815,074 600,788 548,369
Product Development 400,749 579,193 976,695 693,796 690,677
Sales & marketing 871,749 1,101,327 1,621,519 1,184,506 545,510
General & administrative 327,156 479,487 597,181 490,262 421,082
Restructuring charges n/a n/a n/a n/a 136,969
Total costs & expenses 2,643,083 3,633,241 5,306,782 3,872,047 3,008,902
Income (loss) from operations -81,362 18,744 -501,181 -173,604 -489,967
Interest income 32,102 66,793 85,902 68,661 23,830
Interest expense -16,403 -26,143 -9,668 -6,801 -107,548
Other income (expense), net 6,564 -12,361 13,906 42,130 -115,751
Income (loss) before income taxes -59,099 47,033 -411,703 -69,614 -689,436
Provision for income tax 10,947 53,893 262,636 253,187 7,429
Net loss $ -70,046 -16,880 -674,339 -322,081 -696,865
Net less per share attributable to Class A and Class B common stockholders, basic & diluted $ -0.27 -0.07 -2.59 -1.24 -2.64

What we have learned from the filing

  • Revenue growth was declining before the pandemic – from around 80% in 2016 to just 32% in 2019.

Management conceded: “Our revenue growth has slowed in recent periods and there is no assurance that historic growth rates will return. Our year-over-year growth rate in revenue decreased in 2019 as compared to 2018 and also decreased in 2018 as compared to 2017.”

  • Regulation is becoming more of a headache as cities clamp down on short-term lets.

Management say: “Laws, regulations, and rules that affect the short-term rental and home sharing business may limit the ability or willingness of hosts to share their spaces over our platform and expose our hosts or us to significant penalties, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.

“We are subject to a wide variety of complex, evolving, and sometimes inconsistent and ambiguous laws and regulations that may adversely impact our operations and discourage hosts and guests from using our platform.”

  • It’s never been profitable

“We have incurred net losses in each year since inception, and we may not be able to achieve profitability. We incurred net losses of $70.0 million, $16.9 million, $674.3 million, and $696.9 million for the years ended December 31, 2017, 2018, and 2019, and nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively. Our accumulated deficit was $1.4 billion and $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2019 and September 30, 2020,” the filing states.

  • It’s not doing as badly as peers – other booking sites have fared worse – the pandemic has made the Airbnb private getaway more appealing than staying in a hotel/resort. However, Experiences have not done as well as hoped – there is no breakout of the figures for this despite launching four years ago.

But…the outlook is much stronger for 2021 now that vaccines are coming. Airbnb could benefit from the GOAT trade.

For more information on how to trade IPOs, please see our guide.

Airbnb IPO: when can you buy and sell Airbnb shares?

Accommodation website Airbnb is set to be one of the largest stock market listings of the year, after the group filed a draft S-1 registration document with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

In a statement, Airbnb said the number of shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed offering have not yet been determined. The date of the initial public offering (IPO) is not known, but is expected to take place after the SEC completes its review process. A lot will no doubt depend on market conditions.

We noted earlier in the year that the run-up in stocks after the March trough was offering companies a window of opportunity to get their stock listings out the door.

How much is Airbnb worth?

The company raised $2 billion in two separate tranches in April of this year, whilst it cut staff numbers by 25% to help it survive the enormous impact of the pandemic. This valued the company at $18bn but this was about half what it notionally worth in 2017. In May, chief executive Brian Chesky said the company expects to deliver revenues in 2020 of about half the $4.8bn generated last year.

Part of this is down to the pandemic – it has been a terrible time for the travel sector in particular and about $330bn of revenues has been lost globally, according to the US Travel Association. But Airbnb has enjoyed a surge in bookings as lockdown restrictions ended, particularly in rural areas, where bookings rose 25%.

The fact that Airbnb has not decided to shelve its anticipated IPO this year is a sign of renewed confidence, or it’s a sign the company needs to raise capital fast.

What is Airbnb?

Airbnb launched in 2008 and now has over 150 million users who offer private rentals of apartments and rooms in over 65,000 locations across the globe. It includes Amazon founder Jeff Bezos amongst its early investors. By the end of 2019 analysts were expecting the Airbnb IPO to see the company achieve a valuation of $42 billion.

How to trade Airbnb

Markets.com will be offering a grey market on Airbnb ahead of the IPO, which will let you speculate on the share price before it debuts on the stock market. The grey market price is based on the market capitalisation of the company after its first day of trading. As ever once it has completed the listing you will be able trade the shares by CFD trading or Spread Betting, or invest via share dealing.

Another way to take advantage of the Airbnb IPO is to trade the Renaissance Capital ETF (IPO), which is an index-like basket of companies that went public in the last years.

CySEC (أوروبا)

  • يتم حفظ أموال العملاء في حسابات مصرفية منفصلة
  • تعويضات صندوق تعويضات المستثمر FSCS تصل إلى 20000 جنيه إسترليني
  • تغطية تأمينية بقيمة 1000000 يورو**
  • حماية الرصيد السلبي

المنتجات

  • CFD
  • تعاملات الأسهم
  • Quantranks

Markets.com، التي تتولى تشغيلها شركة Safecap للاستثمارات المحدودة ("Safecap”) مرخصة من قبل مفوضية قبرص للسندات والتداول (CySec) بموجب الترخيص رقم 092/08 ومن قبل هيئة سلوكيات القطاع المالي ("FSCA") بموجب الترخيص رقم 43906.

FSC (العالمية)

  • يتم حفظ أموال العملاء في حسابات مصرفية منفصلة
  • التحقق الإلكتروني
  • حماية الرصيد السلبي
  • تغطية تأمينية بقيمة 1000000 $**

المنتجات

  • CFD

Markets.com، التي تتولى تشغيلها Finalto (جزر العذراء البريطانية) ذ.م.م. المحدودة ("Finalto BVI”) مرخصة من قبل لجنة الخدمات المالية في جزر العذراء البريطانية ("FSC") بموجب الترخيص رقم SIBA/L/14/1067.

FCA (المملكة المتحدة)

  • يتم حفظ أموال العملاء في حسابات مصرفية منفصلة
  • تعويضات صندوق تعويضات الخدمات المالية تصل إلى 85000 جنيه إسترليني *بحسب المعايير والأهلية
  • تغطية تأمينية بقيمة 1000000 £**
  • حماية الرصيد السلبي

المنتجات

  • CFD
  • المراهنة على الهامش

Markets.com، التي تتولى تشغيلها Finalto Trading Limited مرخصة من قبل هيئة السلوك المالي ("FCA") بموجب الترخيص رقم 607305.

ASIC (أستراليا)

  • يتم حفظ أموال العملاء في حسابات مصرفية منفصلة
  • التحقق الإلكتروني
  • حماية الرصيد السلبي
  • تغطية تأمينية بقيمة 1000000$**

المنتجات

  • CFD

Markets.com، التي تتولى تشغيلها Finalto (Australia) Pty Limited تحمل ترخيص هيئة الخدمات المالية الأسترالية رقم 424008، وهي مرخصة لتقديم الخدمات المالية من قبل هيئة الأوراق المالية والاستثمار الأسترالية ("ASIC”).

سيؤدي تحديد إحدى هذه الجهات التنظيمية إلى عرض المعلومات المتوافقة على نطاق الموقع الإلكتروني بأكمله. إذا أردت عرض معلومات عن جهة تنظيمية أخرى، الرجاء تحديدها. لمزيد من المعلومات، انقر هنا.

**تنطبق الأحكام والشروط. شاهد السياسة الكاملة لمزيد من المعلومات.

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